• Genomics & Informatics
• /
• 제14권4호
• /
• pp.138-148
• /
• 2016

The success of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) has enabled us to improve risk assessment and provide novel genetic variants for diagnosis, prevention, and treatment. However, most variants discovered by GWASs have been reported to have very small effect sizes on complex human diseases, which has been a big hurdle in building risk prediction models. Recently, many statistical approaches based on penalized regression have been developed to solve the "large p and small n" problem. In this report, we evaluated the performance of several statistical methods for predicting a binary trait: stepwise logistic regression (SLR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and Elastic-Net (EN). We first built a prediction model by combining variable selection and prediction methods for type 2 diabetes using Affymetrix Genome-Wide Human SNP Array 5.0 from the Korean Association Resource project. We assessed the risk prediction performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the internal and external validation datasets. In the internal validation, SLR-LASSO and SLR-EN tended to yield more accurate predictions than other combinations. During the external validation, the SLR-SLR and SLR-EN combinations achieved the highest AUC of 0.726. We propose these combinations as a potentially powerful risk prediction model for type 2 diabetes.

• Genomics & Informatics
• /
• 제14권4호
• /
• pp.149-159
• /
• 2016

With the success of the genome-wide association studies (GWASs), many candidate loci for complex human diseases have been reported in the GWAS catalog. Recently, many disease prediction models based on penalized regression or statistical learning methods were proposed using candidate causal variants from significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms of GWASs. However, there have been only a few systematic studies comparing existing methods. In this study, we first constructed risk prediction models, such as stepwise linear regression (SLR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and Elastic-Net (EN), using a GWAS chip and GWAS catalog. We then compared the prediction accuracy by calculating the mean square error (MSE) value on data from the Korea Association Resource (KARE) with body mass index. Our results show that SLR provides a smaller MSE value than the other methods, while the numbers of selected variables in each model were similar.

• 기술사
• /
• 제18권2호
• /
• pp.1-5
• /
• 1985

In the flood prediction research, it is pointed out that the difficulty of flood prediction is the frequently experienced overestimation of flood peak. That is caused by the rainfall prediction difficulty and the nonlinearity of hydrological phenomena. Even though the former reason will remain still unsolved, but the latter one can be possibly resolved the method of the AMRA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) model for each runoff component as developed by Dr. Hino and Dr. Hasebe. The principle of the method consists of separating though the numerical filters the total runoff time series into long-term, intermediate and short-term components, or ground water flow, interflow, and surface flow components. As a total system, a hydrological system is a non-linear one. However, once it is separated into two or three subsystems, each subsystem may be treated as a linear system. Also the rainfall components into each subsystem a estimated inversely from the runoff component which is separated from the observed flood. That is why flood prediction can be done without rainfall data. In the prediction of surface flow, the Kalman filter will be applicable but this paper shows only impulse function method.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.165-165
• /
• 2023

Streamflow prediction is a critical task in water resources management and essential for planning and decision-making purposes. However, the streamflow prediction is challenging due to the complexity and non-linear nature of hydrological processes. The transfer learning is a powerful technique that enables a model to transfer knowledge from a source domain to a target domain, improving model performance with limited data in the target domain. In this study, we apply the transfer learning using the Informer model, which is a state-of-the-art deep learning model for streamflow prediction. The model was trained on a large-scale hydrological dataset in the source basin and then fine-tuned using a smaller dataset available in the target basin to predict the streamflow in the target basin. The results demonstrate that transfer learning using the Informer model significantly outperforms the traditional machine learning models and even other deep learning models for streamflow prediction, especially when the target domain has limited data. Moreover, the results indicate the effectiveness of streamflow prediction when knowledge transfer is used to improve the generalizability of hydrologic models in data-sparse regions.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
• /
• 제21권4호
• /
• pp.463-468
• /
• 2011

지금까지 컨텍스트 예측 방법들은 이산 속성 컨텍스트를 대상으로 예측을 수행한 경우와 연속 속성 컨텍스트를 대상으로 예측을 수행한 경우로 나뉘어서 발전되어 왔다. 대부분의 예측 방법들은 컨텍스트의 획득 환경이나 특성에 맞게 특정 도메인에서 각각 예측 알고리즘을 작성하여 사용하여 왔기 때문에, 다양한 환경과 특성을 갖는 사용자의 컨텍스트를 대상으로 예측을 수행하기가 어렵다. 본 논문에서는 특정 도메인이나 컨텍스트의 특성에 국한되지 않고 이산 속성이나 연속 속성 컨텍스트들에 모두 적용 가능한 컨텍스트 예측 방법을 제안한다. 이를 위해 컨텍스트 속성간의 연관규칙을 고려하여 컨텍스트를 시퀀스로 생성하고, 컨텍스트 속성별 가변 가중치를 적용시켜 시퀀스 매칭 기반의 컨텍스트 예측을 수행한다. 제안한 방법을 평가하기 위해 이산 속성 컨텍스트와 연속 속성 컨텍스트에 각각 시뮬레이션한 결과 이산 속성 컨텍스트에서 80.12%, 연속 속성 컨텍스트에서 81.43%의 예측 정확도로 기존 예측방법들과 비슷한 성능을 보였다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.208-208
• /
• 2022

Recently, the frequency of abnormal weather due to complex factors such as global warming is increasing frequently. From the past rainfall patterns, it is evident that climate change is causing irregular rainfall patterns. This phenomenon causes difficulty in predicting rainfall and makes it difficult to prevent and cope with natural disasters, casuing human and property damages. Therefore, accurate rainfall estimation and rainfall occurrence time prediction could be one of the ways to prevent and mitigate damage caused by flood and drought disasters. However, rainfall prediction has a lot of uncertainty, so it is necessary to understand and reduce this uncertainty. In addition, when accurate rainfall prediction is applied to the rainfall-runoff model, the accuracy of the runoff prediction can be improved. In this regard, this study aims to increase the reliability of rainfall prediction by analyzing the uncertainty of the Korean rainfall ensemble prediction data and the outflow analysis model using the Limited Area ENsemble (LENS) and the Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) models. First, the possibility of improving rainfall prediction ability is reviewed using the QM (Quantile Mapping) technique among the bias correction techniques. Then, the GRM parameter calibration was performed twice, and the likelihood-parameter applicability evaluation and uncertainty analysis were performed using R², NSE, PBIAS, and Log-normal. The rainfall prediction data were applied to the rainfall-runoff model and evaluated before and after calibration. It is expected that more reliable flood prediction will be possible by reducing uncertainty in rainfall ensemble data when applying to the runoff model in selecting behavioral models for user uncertainty analysis. Also, it can be used as a basis of flood prediction research by integrating other parameters such as geological characteristics and rainfall events.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.183-183
• /
• 2021

Deep learning methods and their application have become an essential part of prediction and modeling in water-related research areas, including hydrological processes, climate change, etc. It is known that application of deep learning leads to high availability of data sources in hydrology, which shows its usefulness in analysis of precipitation, runoff, groundwater level, evapotranspiration, and so on. However, there is still a limitation on microclimate analysis and prediction with deep learning methods because of deficiency of gauge-based data and shortcomings of existing technologies. In this study, a real-time rainfall prediction model was developed from a sky image data set with convolutional neural networks (CNNs). These daily image data were collected at Chung-Ang University and Korea University. For high accuracy of the proposed model, it considers data classification, image processing, ratio adjustment of no-rain data. Rainfall prediction data were compared with minutely rainfall data at rain gauge stations close to image sensors. It indicates that the proposed model could offer an interpolation of current rainfall observation system and have large potential to fill an observation gap. Information from small-scaled areas leads to advance in accurate weather forecasting and hydrological modeling at a micro scale.

• 한국터널지하공간학회 논문집
• /
• 제18권2호
• /
• pp.245-256
• /
• 2016

TBM을 적용하는 현장에서 장비 선택, 공사기간 및 공사비용의 합리적인 산정을 위하여 TBM의 굴진성능을 정확하게 예측하는 것은 매우 중요한 사안이다. 본 연구에서는 최신 자료들을 바탕으로 기존의 TBM 굴진성능 예측모델들의 평가과정과 방법론에 대한 분석을 수행하였다. 2000년 이후에 발표된 문헌들에 대한 조사를 토대로 TBM 굴진성능 예측모델의 분류체계를 제시하였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 분류체계에서는 TBM 굴진성능 예측모델에 필요한 입력인자 선정단계와 예측기법 적용단계로 크게 구분하였다. 또한 각 예측모델에서 사용된 입력인자, 출력인자 그리고 예측모델에서 사용된 인자의 적용빈도를 분석하였다. 마지막으로 TBM 굴진성능 예측모델의 현황과 향후 연구방향에 대하여 제언하였다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
• /
• 제51권6호
• /
• pp.523-533
• /
• 2018

본 연구에서는 충주댐 유역에 대해 앙상블 유량예측기법의 강우-유출 모델 매개변수, 입력자료에 따른 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 앙상블 유량예측기법으로는 ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) 기법과 BAYES-ESP (Bayesian-ESP) 기법을 활용하였으며, 강우-유출 모델로는 ABCD를 활용하였다. 모델 매개변수에 따른 불확실성 분석은 GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) 기법을 적용하였으며, 입력자료에 따른 불확실성 분석은 유량예측 앙상블에 활용되는 기상시나리오의 기간에 따라 수행하였다. 연구결과 앙상블 유량예측 기법은 입력자료 보다 모델 매개변수의 영향을 크게 받았으며, 20년 이상의 관측 기상자료가 확보되었을 때 활용하는 것이 적절하였다. 또한 BAYES-ESP는 ESP에 비해 불확실성을 감소시킬 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 불확실성 분석을 통해 앙상블 유량예측기법의 특징을 규명하고 오차의 원인을 분석하였다는 점에서 가치가 있다고 판단된다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제7권3호
• /
• pp.937-943
• /
• 2000

Data mining usually deal with undesigned massive data containing many variables for which their characteristics and association rules are unknown, therefore it is actually not easy to interpret the results of analysis. In this paper, it is shown that decision tree can be very useful in interpreting data mining prediction model using two real examples.