• Title/Summary/Keyword: Asian Financial Crisis

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Financial Stability of GCC Banks in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Simulation Approach

  • AL-KHARUSI, Sami;MURTHY, Sree Rama
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.337-344
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    • 2020
  • Stability and sustainability of the biggest banks in any country are extremely important. When big banks become unstable and vulnerable, they typically stop lending. The resulting credit squeeze pushes the economy into recession or a slow growth path. The present study examines the financial stability and sustainability of the 30 large banks operating in the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries. These banks represent 70% of the GCC banking market. Monte Carlo simulation was attempted assuming that key drivers can vary randomly by twenty percent on either side of the current values. The conclusions are drawn based on 300 simulation trails of the five-year forecast balance and income statement of each bank. Year 2020 is not favorable for the GCC countries because of the COVID-19 pandemic and low oil prices, though the future years may be better. The study identifies several banks, which may become financially unsustainable because the simulations indicate the possibility of negative profitability, unacceptably low capital ratios and potential for heavy credit losses during periods of economic turbulence, which is the current situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Through simulation the paper is able to throw light on which factors lead to bank instability and weakness.

An Exploration of Dynamic Relationships between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices in Korea Revisited

  • LEE, Jung Wan;BRAHMASRENE, Tantatape
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.10
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2020
  • The paper revisits the author's previous paper to examine short-run and long-run dynamic relationships between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Korea. The data is updated to the period for which monthly data are available from January 1986 to June 2018 (390 observations) retrieved from the Bank of Korea. The results of Johansen cointegration test indicate that at least one cointegrating equation exists, confirming there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Korea. The results of vector error correction estimates confirm that: 1) the coefficient of the error correction term is significant with a negative sign, which is, a long-run dynamic relationship is observed between macroeconomic variables and stock prices; 2) for short-run dynamics, the nominal exchange rate of the Korean won per the US dollar is positively related to stock prices, while interest rates are negatively related to stock prices in the short-run; 3) the coefficient of global financial crises is insignificant, that is, the changes of stock prices are determined largely by their own dynamics in the model. The results suggest only that the global financial crises neither cause instability in the cointegrating vector, nor affect significant changes in the endogenous variables in the model.

Predicting Recessions Using Yield Spread in Emerging Economies: Regime Switch vs. Probit Analysis (금리스프레드를 이용한 신흥경제 국가의 불황 예측: 국면 전환 모형 vs. 프로빗 모형)

  • Park, Kihyun;Mohsin, Mohammed
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.53-73
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    • 2012
  • In this study we investigate the ability of the yield spread to predict economic recessions in two Asian economies. For our purpose we use the data from two emerging economies (South Korea and Thailand) that are also known for their openness in terms of exports and imports. We employ both two-regime Markov-Switching model (MS) and three-regime MS model to estimate the probability of recessions during Asian crisis. We found that the yield spread is confirmed to be a reliable recession predictor for Thailand but not for South Korea. The three-regime MS model is better for capturing the Asian financial crisis than two-regime MS model. We also tried to find the duration of economic expansions and recessions. We tested the hypothesis of asymmetric movements of business cycles. The MS results are also compared with that of the standard probit model for comparison. The MS model does not significantly improve the forecasting ability of the yield spread in forecasting business cycles.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

How Managers React to Crisis?: A Planned Behavior Theory Approach

  • Cinar, Gokhan;Isin, Ferruh;Hushmat, Adnan
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - Not all firms are able to completely eliminate the risk arising out of the crisis. Success hides in the ability to perceive the market expectations accurately and take correct decisions. This study aims to analyze the firms' decisions at gross-root level. Research Design, Data, and Methodology - Primary data is obtained with the help of specially designed questionnaires from the agriproducts export firms that are members of export union of Turkey. The study is based on four theoretical structures: general planned behavior theory model, perception-leading behavior control and subjective norm model, perceived-behavioral-control leading perception and subjective norm models, and perceptions and subjective norms leading behavior control model. Structural Equation Models (SEM) is used to conduct the empirical analysis. Results - The findings show perceptions and subjective norms leading behavior control model as the best one, concluding that the environmental pressures and positive perceptions have significant effect on the strategic decisions of the agriproducts export firms. Conclusion - Policy tools like creating positive perception in the markets, providing sufficient information and financial support to the firms and increasing market competition can be used effectively to achieve the said objective.

The Role of Government Expenditure and Investment for MSME Growth: Empirical Study in Indonesia

  • PRASETYO, P. Eko
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.10
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    • pp.471-480
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    • 2020
  • In Indonesia, micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) are introduced to increase income by providing many easier jobs to improve economic growth. They have also been reported to be generally supportive of the local industry. The government policies on investment and expenditure have the ability to promote MSMEs and economic growth. Therefore, this research was conducted to analyze the theoretical background and empirical study to investigate government's role to promote MSMEs growth in Indonesia. The secondary data after the 2008 global financial crisis recorded quarterly from 2009 to 2019 Q3 were analyzed using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression model. The results showed government expenditure has a positive and significant contribution to small- and medium-sized enterprises, but the effect was not significant for micro-businesses. Meanwhile, the investment sector was discovered to have a positive and significant effect on MSMEs. The policy implications of the Indonesian government are expected to focus on its expenditure's role as the most important factor for "social-economic protection of the community" through micro-enterprises, which are numerous and more attached to the real community economic-social life. Therefore, the existence of micro-businesses is very helpful for the lower classes despite their high vulnerability to crisis.

The Impact of Corporate Governance on Firm Performance During The COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Malaysia

  • KHATIB, Saleh F.A.;NOUR, Abdul-Naser Ibrahim
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.943-952
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of COVID-19 on corporate governance attributes and firm performance association. This research used a sample of 188 non-financial firms from the Malaysian market for the years 2019-2020. We found that the COVID-19 has affected all firm characteristics including firm performance, governance structure, dividend, liquidity, and leverage level, yet, the difference between prior and post COVID-19 pandemic is not significant. Also, the investigation revealed that board size exerts a significant positive impact on firm performance. After splitting the sample based on year, however, we found that board size does not matter in the uncertain time of the current crisis, while board diversity appeared to be significantly enhancing firm performance in the crisis time compared to the prior year where it has an inverse association with firm performance in both indicators. Board meetings and audit committee meetings seemed to have a significant negative influence on firm performance pre and post-COVID-19. This study contributes to the limited literature by providing the first empirical evidence on the impact of Coronavirus on the firm performance and corporate governance association.

Diversification Strategy through Market Creation: The Case of CJ Group

  • Jeong, Jaeseok;Kim, Nam Jung;Lim, Hyunjoo;Kang, Hyoung Goo;Moon, Junghoon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this paper is to investigate upon a diversification strategy through market creation of CJ Group, which has contributed in positioning of the firm as one of the leading conglomerates in South Korea. With such objective, the background of CJ Group, followed by its business diversification strategies were explored, with reference to several case studies. The history of CJ Group began with establishment of CheilJedang Industrial Corporation in 1953, as the first domestic sugar producer and exporter of South Korea. The corporation gradually expanded its business ever since at both national and global level, to include the fields of food production, pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and life chemicals. Later, CheilJedang (CJ) Group was established as an affiliate of CheilJedang Industrial Corporation. With such independence, extension of business has been witnessed across the industries of media, entertainment, finance, information technology and distribution. Thus, the current CJ Group pursues to define itself as a progressive global living culture company with four major business categories from food and food service, biotechnology, entertainment and media, and logistics. Despite its success in today's market, CJ Group underwent hardships in its business diversification in 1990s due to indiscreet management, along with the Asian financial crisis. Here, many firms overcame the financial difficulties by taking advantage of the exchange rate for overseas expansion. Though, CJ Group tried to differentiate itself by focusing on the domestic market by creating something out of nothing. Hence, CJ Group takes a unique position among many cases of business diversification and their categorization. In an effort to identify and classify the types of growth experienced by the top 30 companies in South Korea, the firms were categorized into four groups according to their diversification strategies adapted after the Asian financial crisis. Based on the mode and time of entry, corporations were identified either as the 'Explorer', 'Invader', 'Venture Capitalist', or 'Assimilator'. Here, the majority of the firms showed the qualities of Invader, entering mature markets through large-scaled mergers and acquisitions. However, CJ Group was the only firm that was categorized as an Explorer, for its focus on the newly emerging service sector in culture-contents industry. This diversification strategy through market creation is worth examining, due to its contribution in generating simultaneous growth between the market and the company itself. Diverse brands of CJ Group have been referred to as case studies in this regard, from 'Hatban', 'Cine de Chef', 'VIPS' to 'CJ GLS'. These four businesses, each to represent processed food, film, restaurant service, and logistics industries respectively, show CJ Group's effectiveness in creating a whole new category of goods and services that are innovative. In fact, such businesses not only contributed in advancement of consumers' wellbeing, but toward generating additional value and employment. It is true that the diversification strategy of CJ Group requires long-term capital investment with high risk, compared to the other strategies mentioned in the paper. However, this model does create high employment and additional values that are positive to both the society and the firm itself. Therefore, the paper comes to a conclusion that the diversification strategy through market creation conveys the most positive impact relative to the others.

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National Interest and the News Media -Understanding U.S. Elite Media's Relationship with Foreign Economic Policies- (국가이익과 언론 -미국 엘리트 언론의 국제통화체제 위기 보도를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Sung-Hae
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.42
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    • pp.205-248
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    • 2008
  • There emerges a growing concern about South Korea's intellectual dependence on U.S. financial news media. However, those media's inherent relationship with national economic and financial interests has been poorly addressed. This paper thus attempts to identify such a strategic partnership between media and the government by analysing news coverages over four critical arena interwoven with U.S. dollar based financial system. For this purpose, total 152 news articles about Asia crisis, Asian Monetary Fund, Malaysia currency crisis and the new international financial architecture have been examined in terms of frame, attitude, cue-givers and discursive strategies. Research results indicate that not only have the media actively deferred to government leadership bur they have also acted as public diplomats in way of not hampering journalistic credibility. Hence, it is claimed that Korean society needs to formulate a model of media's strategic partnership with government at least in foreign policy arena, as well as to launch discursive strategies against nation-bound global news media.

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A Study on the Role of Capital Regulation in Capital Market Law preventing Investment Bank Business Risks (자본시장법상 자기자본규제의 미래 투자은행(IB) 위험예방 가능성 연구)

  • Chang, Kyung-Chun;Lee, Sang-Heon
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.161-189
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    • 2009
  • The sub-prime crisis led to the collapse of US investment banks which were considered highly competitive during the Asian Financial Crisis. The event gave us a lesson on importance of the financial supervision. Additionally concerns rise over the fact that the role model of the Capital Market Law, created for the purpose of developing the capital market, is the US investment banks. This paper investigates if the prudential regulations, among them especially the capital regulation, are able to prevent the risk the arises from Korean financial firms operating investment bank business. The current capital requirement regulation, Net Capital Ratio(NCR), is not sufficient, because it's nature of being a ratio makes the NCR ineffective when assets and liabilities are concurrently rising. We also verified the internal model which measured the market risk, by comparing the US investment and Korean banks' diversification effect. The result of the test is that it is difficult to conclude the internal model has a critical defect. This paper's contribution is that it is not sufficient use only the capital regulation in supervising financial markets.

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