• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.7-17
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• 2018

This paper examines short-run and long-run dynamic relationships between selected macroeconomic variables and stock prices in the Korea Stock Exchange. The data is restricted to the period for which monthly data are available from January 1986 to October 2016 (370 observations) retrieved from the Economic Statistics System database sponsored by the Bank of Korea. The study employs unit root test, cointegration test, vector error correction estimates, impulse response test, and structural break test. The results of the Johansen cointegration test indicate at least three cointegrating equations exist at the 0.05 level in the model, confirming that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Korea. The results of vector error correction model (VECM) estimates indicate that money supply and short-term interest rate are not related to stock prices in the short-run. However, exchange rate is positively related to stock prices while the industrial production index and inflation are negatively related to stock prices in the short-run. Furthermore, the VECM estimates indicate that the external shock, such as regional and global financial crisis shocks, neither affects changes in the endogenous variables nor causes instability in the cointegrating vector. This study finds that the endogenous variables are determined by their own dynamics in the model.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.673-685
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• 2021

This study aims to determine theoretically the best workers layoff/training strategy that entrepreneurs should apply to manage the COVID-19 crisis successfully. It also examines the impacts of the Saudi government's emergency measures on firm performance. The paper develops a theoretical framework in which the optimal control technics is applied to model the entrepreneur's hiring, layoff, and training behaviors. The results show that, during the current COVID-19 pandemic, the entrepreneur should first lay off the less productive workers to reduce labor costs. As more and more inefficient workers quit and profit increases, the entrepreneur starts expanding his activity and training workers. In the long run, only the training activity allows the firm efficiency to grow at a constant rate. This finding suggests that the key to long-run economic recovery in Saudi Arabia will rely on training, innovation, and adaptability to the new digital environment. The paper also shows that the Saudi government initiative of covering 60% of salaries for the small- and medium-sized entrepreneurs during the COVID-19 pandemic will enhance training activities in small- and medium-sized enterprises and improve their efficiency in both the short and long run. This policy will also prevent Saudi entrepreneurs from laying off half of their staff.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.151-158
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• 2022

The study aims to investigate Lebanese-Chinese relations within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. Lebanon formally joined the effort in 2017; this paper emphasizes Lebanon's geostrategic importance. The paper presents an assessment of the investment risks in Lebanon, which is considered an economically unstable country with a volatile security situation, with many internal and external political hurdles. The paper refers to the obstacles and challenges that the Chinese investor may face in Lebanese society. The study employs qualitative descriptive analysis to address the status of Chinese investment in Lebanon and the consequences of this partnership; the paper examines previous research related to the Belt and Road Initiative and the Lebanese political, security, and economic situation literature. Due to the deteriorating security situation, external intervention, and the economic crisis, the results reveal that Lebanon is not a top investment priority for China, which is a big impediment to China entering into economic cooperation with Lebanon. The findings of this study suggest that the Lebanese government should adopt an anti-corruption policy to build confidence for the Chinese investor, reduce unnecessary public spending, and hold a national dialogue to build confidence among the Lebanese parties.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.699-711
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• 2011

This study is to perform several major analyses to find any differences in the leverage between the pre- and post-period of the currency crisis. Moreover, another aspect is to investigate a financial aspect which has received relatively little attention to the firms and/or industries in the emerging capital markets in comparison to those in the advanced markets. The purpose of this empirical study is to confirm whether or not, it is myth or reality that Korean business conglomerate, chaebol, firms with subsidized financing from government-owned domestic financial institutions in the pre-financial turmoil, may still maintain their higher leverage, even after the crisis. It was found that firms belonging to the chaebol in Korea maintained higher average book-value and market-value based debt ratios, relative to their counterparts not belonging to the chaebol across all of the tested models. There were positive relationships of IND3(=the chemical industry) and Ind5(=the construction industry) to the book-value leverage. This study identified that there were no differences in the explanatory variables included, between the tested models (that is, without and with including the present value of an operating lease) related to each debt ratio. Since the Korean government continue to improve the corporate governance of the domestic firms in terms of accounting transparency and corporate ownership, it would be more efficient, if utilizing this "new" ratio considering an operating lease as an effective measurement of the level of leverage. In terms of the capital structure, it may also be possible for foreign firms to utilize and benefit from the results obtained in this study when operating their new businesses in Korea, given the economic circumstances such as the ongoing progress of the Korea-America FTA or the Korea-China FTA.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.96-114
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.191-200
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• 2017

As Korea experienced a Asian foreign exchange crisis in 1997 and a world financial crisis in 2008, the social structure of Korea has undergone many changes. The problem of polarization has become more serious, and the social class has become harder to move between strata. This problem has been accompanied by a growing sense of crisis that the power of social development can be lost along with the problem of population cliffs. Behind the crisis is a reflection of the fact that the growth-oriented economic policies and welfare policies implemented in various European countries can not solve the problem. As an alternative to this, the emergence of social enterprises is attracting attention. Social enterprises have the characteristic of seeking to generate economic profit in order to achieve the purpose of the public interest to provide jobs to the underprivileged. In recent years, the importance of social ventures to expand the scope of new social enterprises in innovative ways has increased. The social venture is a venture business in that it takes risks to develop new areas, not existing business areas, but it also has the character of a social enterprise to achieve the public interest. In other words, an innovative corporate model that provides a creative and challenging solution of social problems in the venture spirit. Although the interest and importance of social enterprises and social ventures are increasing, this academic research is still lacking. The purpose of this study is to introduce and analyze cases of successful social enterprises and social ventures in order to reflect these social interests and their importance and to fill the gap of previous studies. In addition, I hope that this study will stimulate interest and research on the start - up of social venture.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.131-161
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• 2017

The political dynamics of Malaysia in 2016 should be seen as a process of losing an political opportunity mainly due to the split in opposition parties. The opportunity for political development was triggered by the ruling party in crisis. The ongoing 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal involving the Prime Minister Najib Razak would have provided a favorable condition for the transfer of power. The opposition parties have however failed to utilize the chance that has arisen since the general elections in 2008 and 2013 due to the chronic problem of disunity. It can be seen as distortions of political development referring to a phenomenon in which a chance for regime change formed by the crisis in authoritarian regime is distorted by internal conflicts among opposition parties. Malaysia's political turmoil seemed to paralyze its economy while foreign policy was used as a tool for domestic politics. It was reported that the key economic indicator have worsen including exports and budget deficit. The ringgit had dropped to its lowest level since the economic crisis in 1997-98 which was mainly attributed to diminishing credibility on the Najib's administration. Najib's political struggle has also impeded Malaysia's foreign policy which has attempt to embrace China and the Rohingya issue. The chance to manage key risks would be diminished if oppositions' disunity continues as there is speculation that the general election could be held in 2017.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.1-23
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• 2014

This paper has studied the monetary policy in Korea with a time varying VAR model using four key macroeconomic variables. First, inclusion of the exchange rate was a crucial factor in evaluating Korean monetary policy since the monetary policy demonstrated sensitivity to exchange rate movements during the crisis periods of both the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the global financial crisis of 2008. Second, a specification of the stochastic volatilities in TVP-VAR model is important in explaining excessive movements of all variables in the sample. The overall moderation of variables in 2000s was more or less due to a reduction of the stochastic volatilities but also somewhat due to the macroeconomic fundamental structures captured by impulse response functons. Third, the degree of the monetary policy effectiveness of inflation was mitigated in recent periods but with increased persistence. Lastly, the monetary policy stance towards inflation stabilization has advanced ever since the inflation targeting scheme was adopted. However, there still seems to be a room for improvement in this aspect since the degree of the monetary policy stance towards inflation stabilization was relatively weaker than to output stabilization.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.161-206
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• 2013

Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the world economy has been suffering from the Great Recession characterized by high and persistent unemployment as well as drastic fall in asset prices. Real business cycle theory or new-Keynesian economics which has been the dominant paradigm in macroeconomics for the last four decades is unable to explain the high and persistent unemployment during the Great Recession. This implies that the economics of Keynes should be taken seriously again as a tool to explain the Great Recession. Farmer (2012) proposes a new way of interpreting the economics of Keynes by providing it with a solid micro-foundation based on labor markets with search. According to Farmer (2012), aggregate economic activity independently depends on the long-term self-fulfilling expectations about the stock prices. As a consequence, the government or the central bank should implement a policy that influences the public's confidence about the stock market. For an open economy like the Korean economy, it is not only stock price but also the price of asset such as house that matters more for the aggregate economic activity. Households in the Korean economy hold more than 70 percent of their wealth in the form of real estate asset, especially housing asset. This makes the public's confidence about the future prices of houses even more important in explaining the business cycles of the Korean economy. Policymakers should implement policies to improve the confidence of households about the housing market to recover from the recession caused by a fall in house prices. Little theoretical work has been done in explaining fluctuations in the aggregate economic activity from the point of house prices. This paper develops a small open economy model with traded and non-traded capital based on Farmer (2012) and shows that the aggregate economic activity also independently depends on the households' self-fulfilling expectations about the future prices of non-traded asset such as houses.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.351-376
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• 2020

A low level of transparency and trust in the release of government information during the COVID-19 pandemic could decrease the chance of success in handling the coronavirus outbreak. This worldwide pandemic has damaged not only human health but also created an economic and social crisis. Indonesia is no exception. Unfortunately, an analysis of a mixed-method survey of 500 participants found that public perception of transparency in the government's release of COVID-19 information is still at a low level. This perceived low level of transparency generates minimum trust in the information. Only 8% of participants trust the government's information regarding the virus. Even though the Indonesian government launched an official website, www.covid19.go.id, which is intended as a primary source of valid information about COVID-19 in Indonesia, most survey participants had never used the website. However, contrary to the low levels of perceived transparency and trust, most participants said that the messages from the government are clear and easy to understand. This contradiction resulted from skepticism toward the government. Therefore, this research presents a better understanding of how the level of transparency and trust is also related to the level of skepticism of the government.