• Title/Summary/Keyword: Artificial neural network prediction

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A Study on Mine Ventilation Network (광산 통기 네트워크 연구)

  • Kim, Soo Hong;Kim, Yun Kwang;Kim, Sun Myung;Jang, Yun Ho
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.217-229
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    • 2017
  • This study focuses on the improvement of the working environment in domestic collieries where temperature is increasing due to heat of the earth that is caused by the long-term mining. In order to improve the working environment of the mine, a ventilation evaluation was carried out for Hwasoon Mining Industry. In order to increase the ventilation efficiency of the mine, numerical analysis of the effect on temperature was carried out by using climsim, a temperature prediction program. The analysis shows that A coal mine needs $6,152m^3/min$ for in-flow ventilation rate but the total input air flowrate is $4,710m^3/min$, $1,442m^3/min$ of in-flow ventilation rate shortage. The 93 m hypothetical ventilation shaft from -395 ML to -488 ML could result about $3^{\circ}C$ temperature drop in the coal mine of -488 ML far. As a result of predicting the $CO_2$ concentration at -523 ML development using artificial neural network, the emission of $CO_2$ increased as the amount of coal and coal bed thickness increased. The factors that have the greatest effect on the amount of $CO_2$ emissions were coal layer thickness and coal mining. And, as the air quantity increases, it has a great effect on the decrease of carbon dioxide concentration.

Prediction of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity in Greenhouse via a Multilayer Perceptron Using Environmental Factors (환경요인을 이용한 다층 퍼셉트론 기반 온실 내 기온 및 상대습도 예측)

  • Choi, Hayoung;Moon, Taewon;Jung, Dae Ho;Son, Jung Eek
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2019
  • Temperature and relative humidity are important factors in crop cultivation and should be properly controlled for improving crop yield and quality. In order to control the environment accurately, we need to predict how the environment will change in the future. The objective of this study was to predict air temperature and relative humidity at a future time by using a multilayer perceptron (MLP). The data required to train MLP was collected every 10 min from Oct. 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2018 in an eight-span greenhouse ($1,032m^2$) cultivating mango (Mangifera indica cv. Irwin). The inputs for the MLP were greenhouse inside and outside environment data, and set-up and operating values of environment control devices. By using these data, the MLP was trained to predict the air temperature and relative humidity at a future time of 10 to 120 min. Considering typical four seasons in Korea, three-day data of the each season were compared as test data. The MLP was optimized with four hidden layers and 128 nodes for air temperature ($R^2=0.988$) and with four hidden layers and 64 nodes for relative humidity ($R^2=0.990$). Due to the characteristics of MLP, the accuracy decreased as the prediction time became longer. However, air temperature and relative humidity were properly predicted regardless of the environmental changes varied from season to season. For specific data such as spray irrigation, however, the numbers of trained data were too small, resulting in poor predictive accuracy. In this study, air temperature and relative humidity were appropriately predicted through optimization of MLP, but were limited to the experimental greenhouse. Therefore, it is necessary to collect more data from greenhouses at various places and modify the structure of neural network for generalization.

Temperature Prediction and Control of Cement Preheater Using Alternative Fuels (대체연료를 사용하는 시멘트 예열실 온도 예측 제어)

  • Baasan-Ochir Baljinnyam;Yerim Lee;Boseon Yoo;Jaesik Choi
    • Resources Recycling
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.3-14
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    • 2024
  • The preheating and calcination processes in cement manufacturing, which are crucial for producing the cement intermediate product clinker, require a substantial quantity of fossil fuels to generate high-temperature thermal energy. However, owing to the ever-increasing severity of environmental pollution, considerable efforts are being made to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels in the cement industry. Several preliminary studies have focused on increasing the usage of alternative fuels like refuse-derived fuel (RDF). Alternative fuels offer several advantages, such as reduced carbon emissions, mitigated generation of nitrogen oxides, and incineration in preheaters and kilns instead of landfilling. However, owing to the diverse compositions of alternative fuels, estimating their calorific value is challenging. This makes it difficult to regulate the preheater stability, thereby limiting the usage of alternative fuels. Therefore, in this study, a model based on deep neural networks is developed to accurately predict the preheater temperature and propose optimal fuel input quantities using explainable artificial intelligence. Utilizing the proposed model in actual preheating process sites resulted in a 5% reduction in fossil fuel usage, 5%p increase in the substitution rate with alternative fuels, and 35% reduction in preheater temperature fluctuations.

Prediction and analysis of acute fish toxicity of pesticides to the rainbow trout using 2D-QSAR (2D-QSAR방법을 이용한 농약류의 무지개 송어 급성 어독성 분석 및 예측)

  • Song, In-Sik;Cha, Ji-Young;Lee, Sung-Kwang
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.544-555
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    • 2011
  • The acute toxicity in the rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was analyzed and predicted using quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR). The aquatic toxicity, 96h $LC_{50}$ (median lethal concentration) of 275 organic pesticides, was obtained from EU-funded project DEMETRA. Prediction models were derived from 558 2D molecular descriptors, calculated in PreADMET. The linear (multiple linear regression) and nonlinear (support vector machine and artificial neural network) learning methods were optimized by taking into account the statistical parameters between the experimental and predicted p$LC_{50}$. After preprocessing, population based forward selection were used to select the best subsets of descriptors in the learning methods including 5-fold cross-validation procedure. The support vector machine model was used as the best model ($R^2_{CV}$=0.677, RMSECV=0.887, MSECV=0.674) and also correctly classified 87% for the training set according to EU regulation criteria. The MLR model could describe the structural characteristics of toxic chemicals and interaction with lipid membrane of fish. All the developed models were validated by 5 fold cross-validation and Y-scrambling test.

A Study on Optimum Ventilation System in the Deep Coal Mine (심부 석탄광산의 환기시스템 최적화 연구)

  • Kwon, Joon Uk;Kim, Sun Myung;Kim, Yun Kwang;Jang, Yun Ho
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.186-198
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    • 2015
  • This paper aims for the ultimate goal to optimize the work place environment through assuring the optimal required ventilation rate based on the analysis of the airflow. The working environment is deteriorated due to a rise in temperature of a coal mine caused by increase of its depth and carriage tunnels. To improve the environment, the ventilation evaluation on J coal mine is carried out and the effect of a length of the tunnel on the temperature to enhance the ventilation efficiency in the subsurface is numerically analyzed. The analysis shows that J coal mine needs $17,831m^3/min$ for in-flow ventilation rate but the total input air flowrate is $16,474m^3/min$, $1,357m^3/min$ of in-flow ventilation rate shortage. The temperatures were predicted on the two developed models of J mine, and VnetPC that is a numerical program for the flowrate prediction. The result of the simulation notices the temperature in the case of developing all 4 areas of -425ML as a first model is predicted 29.30 at the main gangway 9X of C section and in the case of developing 3 areas of -425ML excepting A area as a second model, it is predicted 27.45 Celsius degrees.

An Integrated Model for Predicting Changes in Cryptocurrency Return Based on News Sentiment Analysis and Deep Learning (감성분석을 이용한 뉴스정보와 딥러닝 기반의 암호화폐 수익률 변동 예측을 위한 통합모형)

  • Kim, Eunmi
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2021
  • Bitcoin, a representative cryptocurrency, is receiving a lot of attention around the world, and the price of Bitcoin shows high volatility. High volatility is a risk factor for investors and causes social problems caused by reckless investment. Since the price of Bitcoin responds quickly to changes in the world environment, we propose to predict the price volatility of Bitcoin by utilizing news information that provides a variety of information in real-time. In other words, positive news stimulates investor sentiment and negative news weakens investor sentiment. Therefore, in this study, sentiment information of news and deep learning were applied to predict the change in Bitcoin yield. A single predictive model of logit, artificial neural network, SVM, and LSTM was built, and an integrated model was proposed as a method to improve predictive performance. As a result of comparing the performance of the prediction model built on the historical price information and the prediction model reflecting the sentiment information of the news, it was found that the integrated model based on the sentiment information of the news was the best. This study will be able to prevent reckless investment and provide useful information to investors to make wise investments through a predictive model.

The Prediction of Durability Performance for Chloride Ingress in Fly Ash Concrete by Artificial Neural Network Algorithm (인공 신경망 알고리즘을 활용한 플라이애시 콘크리트의 염해 내구성능 예측)

  • Kwon, Seung-Jun;Yoon, Yong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2022
  • In this study, RCPTs (Rapid Chloride Penetration Test) were performed for fly ash concrete with curing age of 4 ~ 6 years. The concrete mixtures were prepared with 3 levels of water to binder ratio (0.37, 0.42, and 0.47) and 2 levels of substitution ratio of fly ash (0 and 30%), and the improved passed charges of chloride ion behavior were quantitatively analyzed. Additionally, the results were trained through the univariate time series models consisted of GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) algorithm and those from the models were evaluated. As the result of the RCPT, fly ash concrete showed the reduced passed charges with period and an more improved resistance to chloride penetration than OPC concrete. At the final evaluation period (6 years), fly ash concrete showed 'Very low' grade in all W/B (water to binder) ratio, however OPC concrete showed 'Moderate' grade in the condition with the highest W/B ratio (0.47). The adopted algorithm of GRU for this study can analyze time series data and has the advantage like operation efficiency. The deep learning model with 4 hidden layers was designed, and it provided a reasonable prediction results of passed charge. The deep learning model from this study has a limitation of single consideration of a univariate time series characteristic, but it is in the developing process of providing various characteristics of concrete like strength and diffusion coefficient through additional studies.

Application of Support Vector Regression for Improving the Performance of the Emotion Prediction Model (감정예측모형의 성과개선을 위한 Support Vector Regression 응용)

  • Kim, Seongjin;Ryoo, Eunchung;Jung, Min Kyu;Kim, Jae Kyeong;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.185-202
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    • 2012
  • .Since the value of information has been realized in the information society, the usage and collection of information has become important. A facial expression that contains thousands of information as an artistic painting can be described in thousands of words. Followed by the idea, there has recently been a number of attempts to provide customers and companies with an intelligent service, which enables the perception of human emotions through one's facial expressions. For example, MIT Media Lab, the leading organization in this research area, has developed the human emotion prediction model, and has applied their studies to the commercial business. In the academic area, a number of the conventional methods such as Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been applied to predict human emotion in prior studies. However, MRA is generally criticized because of its low prediction accuracy. This is inevitable since MRA can only explain the linear relationship between the dependent variables and the independent variable. To mitigate the limitations of MRA, some studies like Jung and Kim (2012) have used ANN as the alternative, and they reported that ANN generated more accurate prediction than the statistical methods like MRA. However, it has also been criticized due to over fitting and the difficulty of the network design (e.g. setting the number of the layers and the number of the nodes in the hidden layers). Under this background, we propose a novel model using Support Vector Regression (SVR) in order to increase the prediction accuracy. SVR is an extensive version of Support Vector Machine (SVM) designated to solve the regression problems. The model produced by SVR only depends on a subset of the training data, because the cost function for building the model ignores any training data that is close (within a threshold ${\varepsilon}$) to the model prediction. Using SVR, we tried to build a model that can measure the level of arousal and valence from the facial features. To validate the usefulness of the proposed model, we collected the data of facial reactions when providing appropriate visual stimulating contents, and extracted the features from the data. Next, the steps of the preprocessing were taken to choose statistically significant variables. In total, 297 cases were used for the experiment. As the comparative models, we also applied MRA and ANN to the same data set. For SVR, we adopted '${\varepsilon}$-insensitive loss function', and 'grid search' technique to find the optimal values of the parameters like C, d, ${\sigma}^2$, and ${\varepsilon}$. In the case of ANN, we adopted a standard three-layer backpropagation network, which has a single hidden layer. The learning rate and momentum rate of ANN were set to 10%, and we used sigmoid function as the transfer function of hidden and output nodes. We performed the experiments repeatedly by varying the number of nodes in the hidden layer to n/2, n, 3n/2, and 2n, where n is the number of the input variables. The stopping condition for ANN was set to 50,000 learning events. And, we used MAE (Mean Absolute Error) as the measure for performance comparison. From the experiment, we found that SVR achieved the highest prediction accuracy for the hold-out data set compared to MRA and ANN. Regardless of the target variables (the level of arousal, or the level of positive / negative valence), SVR showed the best performance for the hold-out data set. ANN also outperformed MRA, however, it showed the considerably lower prediction accuracy than SVR for both target variables. The findings of our research are expected to be useful to the researchers or practitioners who are willing to build the models for recognizing human emotions.

Predicting Forest Gross Primary Production Using Machine Learning Algorithms (머신러닝 기법의 산림 총일차생산성 예측 모델 비교)

  • Lee, Bora;Jang, Keunchang;Kim, Eunsook;Kang, Minseok;Chun, Jung-Hwa;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2019
  • Terrestrial Gross Primary Production (GPP) is the largest global carbon flux, and forest ecosystems are important because of the ability to store much more significant amounts of carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems. There have been several attempts to estimate GPP using mechanism-based models. However, mechanism-based models including biological, chemical, and physical processes are limited due to a lack of flexibility in predicting non-stationary ecological processes, which are caused by a local and global change. Instead mechanism-free methods are strongly recommended to estimate nonlinear dynamics that occur in nature like GPP. Therefore, we used the mechanism-free machine learning techniques to estimate the daily GPP. In this study, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) were used and compared with the traditional multiple linear regression model (LM). MODIS products and meteorological parameters from eddy covariance data were employed to train the machine learning and LM models from 2006 to 2013. GPP prediction models were compared with daily GPP from eddy covariance measurement in a deciduous forest in South Korea in 2014 and 2015. Statistical analysis including correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean squared error (MSE) were used to evaluate the performance of models. In general, the models from machine-learning algorithms (R = 0.85 - 0.93, MSE = 1.00 - 2.05, p < 0.001) showed better performance than linear regression model (R = 0.82 - 0.92, MSE = 1.24 - 2.45, p < 0.001). These results provide insight into high predictability and the possibility of expansion through the use of the mechanism-free machine-learning models and remote sensing for predicting non-stationary ecological processes such as seasonal GPP.

A Study on People Counting in Public Metro Service using Hybrid CNN-LSTM Algorithm (Hybrid CNN-LSTM 알고리즘을 활용한 도시철도 내 피플 카운팅 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Hye;Kim, Min-Seung;Lee, Chan-Ho;Choi, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Jeong-Hee;Sung, Tae-Eung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 2020
  • In line with the trend of industrial innovation, IoT technology utilized in a variety of fields is emerging as a key element in creation of new business models and the provision of user-friendly services through the combination of big data. The accumulated data from devices with the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is being used in many ways to build a convenience-based smart system as it can provide customized intelligent systems through user environment and pattern analysis. Recently, it has been applied to innovation in the public domain and has been using it for smart city and smart transportation, such as solving traffic and crime problems using CCTV. In particular, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the easiness of securing real-time service data and the stability of security when planning underground services or establishing movement amount control information system to enhance citizens' or commuters' convenience in circumstances with the congestion of public transportation such as subways, urban railways, etc. However, previous studies that utilize image data have limitations in reducing the performance of object detection under private issue and abnormal conditions. The IoT device-based sensor data used in this study is free from private issue because it does not require identification for individuals, and can be effectively utilized to build intelligent public services for unspecified people. Especially, sensor data stored by the IoT device need not be identified to an individual, and can be effectively utilized for constructing intelligent public services for many and unspecified people as data free form private issue. We utilize the IoT-based infrared sensor devices for an intelligent pedestrian tracking system in metro service which many people use on a daily basis and temperature data measured by sensors are therein transmitted in real time. The experimental environment for collecting data detected in real time from sensors was established for the equally-spaced midpoints of 4×4 upper parts in the ceiling of subway entrances where the actual movement amount of passengers is high, and it measured the temperature change for objects entering and leaving the detection spots. The measured data have gone through a preprocessing in which the reference values for 16 different areas are set and the difference values between the temperatures in 16 distinct areas and their reference values per unit of time are calculated. This corresponds to the methodology that maximizes movement within the detection area. In addition, the size of the data was increased by 10 times in order to more sensitively reflect the difference in temperature by area. For example, if the temperature data collected from the sensor at a given time were 28.5℃, the data analysis was conducted by changing the value to 285. As above, the data collected from sensors have the characteristics of time series data and image data with 4×4 resolution. Reflecting the characteristics of the measured, preprocessed data, we finally propose a hybrid algorithm that combines CNN in superior performance for image classification and LSTM, especially suitable for analyzing time series data, as referred to CNN-LSTM (Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). In the study, the CNN-LSTM algorithm is used to predict the number of passing persons in one of 4×4 detection areas. We verified the validation of the proposed model by taking performance comparison with other artificial intelligence algorithms such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and RNN-LSTM (Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). As a result of the experiment, proposed CNN-LSTM hybrid model compared to MLP, LSTM and RNN-LSTM has the best predictive performance. By utilizing the proposed devices and models, it is expected various metro services will be provided with no illegal issue about the personal information such as real-time monitoring of public transport facilities and emergency situation response services on the basis of congestion. However, the data have been collected by selecting one side of the entrances as the subject of analysis, and the data collected for a short period of time have been applied to the prediction. There exists the limitation that the verification of application in other environments needs to be carried out. In the future, it is expected that more reliability will be provided for the proposed model if experimental data is sufficiently collected in various environments or if learning data is further configured by measuring data in other sensors.