• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.158-169
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• 2019

A probabilistic model that can predict the residual useful lifetime of structure is formulated by using the gamma process which is one of the stochastic processes. The formulated stochastic model can take into account both the sampling uncertainty associated with damages measured up to now and the temporal uncertainty of cumulative damage over time. A method estimating several parameters of stochastic model is additionally proposed by introducing of the least square method and the method of moments, so that the age of a structure, the operational environment, and the evolution of damage with time can be considered. Some features related to the residual useful lifetime are firstly investigated into through the sensitivity analysis on parameters under a simple setting of single damage data measured at the current age. The stochastic model are then applied to the rubble-mound breakwater straightforwardly. The parameters of gamma process can be estimated for several experimental data on the damage processes of armor rocks of rubble-mound breakwater. The expected damage levels over time, which are numerically simulated with the estimated parameters, are in very good agreement with those from the flume testing. It has been found from various numerical calculations that the probabilities exceeding the failure limit are converged to the constraint that the model must be satisfied after lasting for a long time from now. Meanwhile, the expected residual useful lifetimes evaluated from the failure probabilities are seen to be different with respect to the behavior of damage history. As the coefficient of variation of cumulative damage is becoming large, in particular, it has been shown that the expected residual useful lifetimes have significant discrepancies from those of the deterministic regression model. This is mainly due to the effect of sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with damage, by which the first time to failure tends to be widely distributed. Therefore, the stochastic model presented in this paper for predicting the residual useful lifetime of structure can properly implement the probabilistic assessment on current damage state of structure as well as take account of the temporal uncertainty of future cumulative damage.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.713-719
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• 2001

The aim of this study is to check the application criteria of the conventional techniques and clarify the effects of breaker depth, seabed conditions on the stability in relation to the effects of uncertainty of storm duration and directional irregular waves. The typical damage modes were divided by the direct wave force on the armor unit and by the local scouring around the toe of a breakwater head by the model experiments. The destruction modes are defined, and some criteria on the damage modes and scouring/deposition at the toe of a breakwater head in relating the wave-bottom-structural conditions can be checked using the multi-directonal irregular wave generator system. According to the results, it is emphasized that the 3-D effects on the stability should be analyzed in the design of multi-purpose/function coastal structures in consideration of the evaluation of spatial variation of damage modes and hydraulic characteristics as well as the wave distribution along the structures.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.105-117
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• 2020

Analysis of combat effectiveness is required to consider the concept of tactical cooperative engagement between manned-unmanned weapon systems, in order to predict the required operational capabilities of future weapon systems that meets the concept of 'effect-based synchronized operations.' However, analytical methods such as mathematical and statistical models make it difficult to analyze the effects of complex systems under nonlinear warfare. In this paper, we propose a combat simulation model that can simulate the concept of cooperative engagement between manned-unmanned combat entities based on wireless communications. First, we model unmanned combat entities, e.g., unmanned ground vehicles and drones, and manned combat entities, e.g., combatants and artillery, considering the capabilities required by the future ground system. We also simulate tactical behavior in which all entities perform their mission while sharing battlefield situation information through wireless communications. Finally we explore the feasibility of the proposed model by analyzing combat effectiveness such as target acquisition rate, remote control success rate, reconnaissance lead time, survival rate, and enemy's loss rate under a small-unit armor reconnaissance scenario. The proposed model is expected to be used in war-game combat experiments as well as analysis of the effects of manned-unmanned ground weapons.