• 한국해양학회지:바다
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.61-72
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• 2007

북태평양 생태계의 연어(Oncorhynchus keta) 개체군과 기후 변동과의 관계에 대하여 연구하였다. 1950년 이후의 알류산 저기압, 남방진동, 북극진동, 태평양순년진동에 대한 지수들을 상호상관법(CCF)과 누적합(CuSum) 방법을 이용하여 연어어획량과 비교하였다. CCF와 CuSum 분석 결과는 1970년대 중반에 큰 기후변화가 발생하였음을 보여 주고 있으며 연어 개체군은 시간 지연 효과를 보이며 기후변화에 반응하였다. 연어회귀량은 태평양순년진동과 3년, 북극진동과는 $6{\sim}7$년의 시간 간격을 가지며 통계적으로 유의한 상관관계를 보였다. 연어 치어에 유리한 해양환경은 연안역에서 치어의 성장을 향상시켰지만, 초기 발생시기의 높은 성장률이 산란어의 회귀율과 관련이 있는 것 같지는 않았다. 오히려 오호츠크해와 베링해에서의 미성어 시기 성장이 회귀율과 상관관계가 유의하게 나타났으며, 이는 연어 개체군에 '크기연관사망' 과정이 적용된 것이라고 할 수 있다. 향후 우리나라 주변 해양생태계에 대한 기후변동의 영향을 설명하기 위하여 한반도 지역의 기후지수 개발이 시급히 필요하다.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제40권3호
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• pp.127-143
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• 2018

This study analyzed the influence of climate change on the spawning ground area of the common squid, Todarodes pacificus. To estimate long term changes in the area of the spawning ground of the common squid, water temperature at 50 m deep that can be inferred from sea surface temperature (SST) based on both NOAA/AVHRR (1981.07-2002.12) and MODIS/AQUA (2003.01-2009.12) ocean color data was analyzed. In addition, five climate indices, Arctic Oscillation Index (AO), Siberian High Index (SH), Aleutian Low Pressure Index (ALP), East Asia Winter Monsoon Index (EAWM) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which are the main indicators of climate changes in the northwestern Pacific were used to study the relationship between the magnitude of the estimated spawning ground and climate indices. The area of the estimated spawning ground was highly correlated with the total catch of common squid throughout four decades. The area of the estimated spawning ground was negatively correlated with SH and EAWM. Especially, PDO was negatively correlated with the area of the spawning ground in the northwestern Pacific (r = -0.39) and in the southern part of the East Sea (r = -0.38). There was a positive relationship between the AO and the area of the spawning ground in the northwestern Pacific (r = 0.46) as well as in the southern part of the East Sea (r = 0.32). Temporally, the area of the winter spawning ground in the southern part of the East Sea in the 1980s was smaller than those areas in the 1990s and 2000s, because the area was disconnected with the western coastal spawning ground of Japan in the 1980s, while the area had been made wider and more continuous from the Korea strait to the western coastal water of Honshu in the 1990s and 2000s.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2008년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.992-996
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• 2008

In this study, changes in precipitation across South Korea during snow seasons (November-April) and their potential are examined. Current (1973/74-2006/07) and future (2081-2100) time series of snow indices including snow season, snow-to-precipitation ratio, and snow impossible day are extracted from observed snow and precipitation data for 61 weather stations as well as observed and modeled daily temperature data. Analyses of linear trends reveal that snow seasons have shortened by 3-13 days/decade; that the snow-to-precipitation ratio (the percentage of snow days relative to precipitation days) has decreased by 4-8 %/decade. These changes are associated with pronounced formations of a positive pressure anomaly core over East Asia during the positive Arctic Oscillation winter years since the late 1980s. A snow-temperature statistical model demonstrates that the warming due to the positive core winter intensifies changes from snow to rain at the rate of $4.7cm/^{\circ}C$. The high pressure anomaly pattern has also contributed to decreases of air-sea thermal gradient which are associated with the reduction of snow could formation. Modeled data predict that a fingerprint of wintertime global warming causing changes from snow to rain will continue to be observed over the 21st century.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.257-263
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• 2003

Oceanographic features around Korean waters related to the global change were studied by analysis of the longterm variation of water temperature, dissolved oxygen, sea level of the surface layer with 1$^{\circ}C$ temperature, spatial position of the subpolar front in the East Sea/Japan Sea (the East sea hereafter) and the Wolf Sunspot Number. With the global warming, the temperature of Korean waters has been increased 0.5∼1.0$^{\circ}C$ for 33years (1968∼2000). In case of the dissolved oxygen in the East Sea has been decreased 0.46$m\ell$/$\ell$. Year to year vertical fluctuations of the monthly anomalies of the surface layer with 1$^{\circ}C$water in the East Sea have predominant periods with 15years as the longterm variation of Arctic climate, 12 and 18years as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Spatial position of the subpolar front in the East Sea moved to northern part of the sea from the southern part of the sea with the increasing sea surface temperature. The relationship between the number of Wolf Sunspot and the anomalies of sea surface temperature was very closer after the late of 1980s than those before the early of 1980s in Korean waters.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제52권11호
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• pp.905-916
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• 2019

본 연구에서는 이변량 웨이블릿 분석에 있어 모 웨이블릿이 어떤 영향을 미치는지를 파악하였다. 모 웨이블릿으로는 관련 연구에서 많이 사용되고 있는 총 네 가지(Bump, Mexican hat, Morlet, Paul)를 선정하였다. 이들 모 웨이블릿은 먼저 백색잡음과 다양한 주기의 사인곡선을 결합하여 만든 시계열의 이변량 분석에 적용하여 그 결과를 평가하였다. 또한 실제 시계열인 북극진동지수(AOI)와 남방진동지수(SOI)를 이변량 분석하여 모의된 시계열의 분석 결과가 실제 자료의 분석결과에도 일관되게 유지되는지를 판단하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 먼저, Bump와 Morlet 모 웨이블릿의 경우가 이론적인 예측에 보다 잘 부합하는 것으로 나타났으며, 반대로 Mexican hat 모 웨이블릿은 상대적으로 단주기의 변동 특성을, Paul 모 웨이블릿의 경우에는 장주기의 변동 특성을 잘 보여주는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, Mexican hat과 Paul 모 웨이블릿의 경우에는 스케일 간섭이 매우 크게 나타남을 확인할 수 있었다. Bump와 Morlet 모 웨이블릿에서는 이러한 문제점이 나타나지 않았다. 소위 동조화(co-movement)를 탐색하는 능력은 Morlet와 Paul 모 웨이블릿이 가지고 있는 것으로 파악되었다. 특히, Morlet의 경우 이 특성이 더욱 명확히 나타남을 확인하였다. 결과적으로 Morlet 모 웨이블릿이 이변량 웨이블릿 분석에 가장 무난한 것으로 확인되었다. 마지막으로, AOI와 SOI 자료의 이변량 웨이블릿 분석에서는 대략 2-4년 정도의 주기성분이 약 20년 빈도로 서로 동조하고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 대기
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.323-337
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• 2015

This study explores the 6-month lead prediction skill of several climate indices that influence on East Asian climate in the GloSea5 hindcast experiment. Such indices include Nino3.4, Indian Ocean Diploe (IOD), Arctic Oscillation (AO), various summer and winter Asian monsoon indices. The model's prediction skill of these indices is evaluated by computing the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean squared skill score (MSSS) for ensemble mean values over the period of 1996~2009. In general, climate indices that have low seasonal variability are predicted well. For example, in terms of ACC, Nino3.4 index is predicted well at least 6 months in advance. The IOD index is also well predicted in late summer and autumn. This contrasts with the prediction skill of AO index which shows essentially no skill beyond a few months except in February and August. Both summer and winter Asian monsoon indices are also poorly predicted. An exception is the Western North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) index that exhibits a prediction skill up to 4- to 6-month lead time. However, when MSSS is considered, most climate indices, except Nino3.4 index, show a negligible prediction skill, indicating that conditional bias is significant in the model. These results are only weakly sensitive to the number of ensemble members.

• 수산해양교육연구
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• 제26권5호
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• pp.1013-1025
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• 2014

Marine meterological characteristics off the coast in the East Sea between 2006 and 2013 were investigated by comparing the high wind-wave alert and moored-measured significant wave high. Monthly and yearly variations of the high wind-wave alert duration off the coast in the central part of the East Sea are correlated with those of the significant wave height measurement with their minima in June and 2008 and maxima in December and 2012. Both the high wind-wave alert duration and significant wave height increase remarkably during 2010-2013 when compared with during 2006-2009. The remarkable increase, occurring dominantly in December, seems to be related with Arctic oscillation variability. However, the comparisons reveal that only about a half of high wind-wave alerts satisfy the criteria for issuing the high wind-wave alert. To issue the high wind-wave alert, the wind speed at the sea should exceed 14 m/s or the significant wave height should be higher than 3 m. The high wind-wave alerts unsatisfying the significant wave height criteria are issued mainly during spring and summer. These results imply that additional surface buoy moorings in the open basin of the East Sea are necessary for more accurate issue of the high wind-wave alert.

• 대기
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.435-447
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• 2015

This study explores the synoptic characteristics of cold days over South Korea and their relationship with large-scale climate variability. The cold day, which is different from cold surge, is defined when daily-mean surface air temperature, averaged over 11 KMA stations, is colder than 1-percentile temperature in each year by considering its long-term trend over 1960~2012. Such event is detected by quantile regression and the related synoptic patterns are identified in reanalysis data. Composite geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa show that cold days are often preceded by positive anomalies in high latitudes and negative anomalies in midlatitudes on the west of Korea. While the formers are quasi-stationary and quasi-barotropic, and often qualified as blocking highs, the latters are associated with transient cyclones. At cold days, the north-south dipole in geopotential height anomalies becomes west-east dipole in the lower troposphere as high-latitude anticyclone expands equatorward to the Northern China and mid-latitude cyclone moves eastward and rapidly develops over the East Sea. The resulting northerlies cause cold days in Korea. By performing composite analyses of large-scale climate indices, it is further found that the occurrence of these cold days are preferable when the Arctic Oscillation is in its negative phase and/or East Asian monsoon circulation and Siberian high are anomalously strong.

• 한국해양학회지:바다
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.1-13
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• 2011

황해저층냉수는 지난 동계의 차고 건조한 바람에 의해 생성되어, 하계에 황해 중앙골을 따라 남하하는 것으로 알려져 있다. 동중국해 북부해역에서 황해저층냉수의 특성과 거동을 파악하기 위해 2003년부터 2009년까지 하계에 관측한 자료를 분석하였다. 수괴분석을 통해 본 연구해역에 영향을 미치는 황해저층냉수를 새롭게 정의하여 북서저층냉수라고 명명하였고, 수온 $13.2^{\circ}C$ 이하, 염분 32.6~33.7 psu와 밀도 $24.7{\sim}25.5\;{\sigma}_t$로 특성지었다. 지형류 계산에 의해 연구해역에서 북서저층냉수는 약 2 cm/s 이하의 속도로 남하하는 것으로 추정하였다. 정의한 북서저층냉수는 수온의 범위와 자지하고 있는 영역에서 연간 변동을 보이며, 이러한 변동은 이전 해 동계 황동중국해의 표층수온의 변화와 밀접한 관련이 있었고, 동계 표층수온의 변화는 동계 기온에 의한 영향이 지배적임을 확인하였다. 동계 동중국해 표층수온은 북극진동 지수와 높은 상관성을 보이며, 동계의 북극진동이 음일 때 동중국해 표층수온이 하강하였고, 이러한 영향으로 북서저층냉수 세력이 동중국해 북부 해역까지 저수온을 보이면서 확장하였다. 동 연구는 동계의 북극진동지수, 황동중국해 겨울철 표층수온, 동중국해 북부의 북서저층냉수가 역학적으로 관련이 있음을 보였고, 이를 바탕으로 하계 동중국해 북부해역에서 저층냉수의 거동을 유추할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.