• Title/Summary/Keyword: Application evaluation

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Corporate Bond Rating Using Various Multiclass Support Vector Machines (다양한 다분류 SVM을 적용한 기업채권평가)

  • Ahn, Hyun-Chul;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.157-178
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    • 2009
  • Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.

Study on Tumor Control Probability and Normal Tissue Complication Probability in 3D Conformal Radiotherapy (방사선 입체조형치료에 대한 종양치유확율과 정상조직손상확율에 관한 연구)

  • 추성실
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.227-245
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    • 1998
  • A most appropriate model of 3-D conformal radiotherapy has been induced by clinical evaluation and animal study, and therapeutic gains were evaluated by numerical equation of tumor control probability(TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). The radiation dose to the tumor and the adjacent normal organs was accurately evaluated and compared using the dose volume histogram(DVH). The TCP and NTCP was derived from the distribution of given dosage and irradiated volume, and these numbers were used as the biological index for the assessment of the treatment effects. Ten patients with liver disease have been evaluated and 3 dogs were sacrificed for this study. Based on the 3-D images of the tumor and adjacent organs, the optimum radiation dose and the projection direction which could maximize the radiation effect while minimizing the effects to the adjacent organs could be decided. 3). The most effective collimation for the normal adjacent organs was made through the beams eye view with the use of multileaf collimator. When the dose was increased from 50Gy to 70Gy, the TCP for the conventional 2-port radiation and the 5-port multidimensional therapy was 0.982 and 0.995 respectively, while the NTCP was 0.725 and 0.142 respectively, suggesting that the 3-D conformal radiotherapy might be the appropriate therapy to apply sufficient radiation dose to the tumor while minimizing the damages to the normal areas of the liver. Positive correlation was observed between the NTCP and the actual complication of the normal liver in the animal study. The present study suggest that the use of 3-D conformal radiotherapy and the application of the mathematical models of TCP and NTCP may provide the improvements in the treatment of hepatoma with enhanced results.

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Auxiliary Reinforcement Method for the Safety of Tunnelling Face (터널 막장안정성에 따른 보강공법 적용)

  • Kim, Chang-Yong;Park, Chi-Hyun;Bae, Gyu-Jin;Hong, Sung-Wan;Oh, Myung-Ryul
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2000
  • Tunnelling has been created as a great extent in view of less land space available because the growth of population in metropolitan has been accelerated at a faster pace than the development of the cities. In tunnelling, it is often faced that measures are obliged to be taken without confirmation for such abnormality as diverged movement of surrounding rock mass, growing crack of shotcrete and yielding of rockbolts. In this case, it is usually said that the judgments of experienced engineers for the selection of measure are importance and allowed us to get over the situations in many construction sites. But decrease of such experienced engineers need us to develop the new system to assist the selection of measures for the abnormality without any experiences of similar tunnelling sites. In this study, After a lot of tunnelling reinforcement methods were surveyed and the detail application were studied, an expert system was developed to predict the safety of tunnel and choose proper tunnel reinforcement system using fuzzy quantification theory and fuzzy inference rule based on tunnel information database. The expert system developed in this study have two main parts named pre-module and post-module. Pre-module decides tunnel information imput items based on the tunnel face mapping information which can be easily obtained in-situ site. Then, using fuzzy quantification theory II, fuzzy membership function is composed and tunnel safety level is inferred through this membership function. The comparison result between the predicted reinforcement system level and measured ones was very similar. In-situ data were obtained in three tunnel sites including subway tunnel under Han river. This system will be very helpful to make the most of in-situ data and suggest proper applicability of tunnel reinforcement system developing more resonable tunnel support method from dependance of some experienced experts for the absent of guide.

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Skin Improvement Effects and Development of Liposome Capsule Technology Using Centella Asiatica Extract Powder (센텔라아시아티카정량추출물의 리포좀 캡슐기술 개발과 피부개선효과)

  • Kim, Seong Jang;Ju, Yeon Jeong;Kim, In-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Applied Science and Technology
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.1285-1297
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    • 2020
  • In this study, we report the results of a study on the clinical evaluation of wrinkle improvement by developing a method for liposome of high-purity Centella asiatica extract used in pharmaceuticals and cosmetics, and a cream using the same. In order to make Centellasome-10EX stabilizing centella asiatica extract in liposome lamella vesicle, it could be completed using 5% hydrogenated lecithin and 2% sucrose distearate. The appearance of Centellasome-10EX was a creamy form of low viscosity, the color was pale yellow, and the odor had the inherent odor of the raw material. The pH was about 6.12, the specific gravity was 1.09, and the acid value was about 0.35. The content of the main constituents of centella asiatica extract contained in the liposome vesicle contains 10,800 ppm of asiatic acid, 10,900 ppm of asiaticoside, 6,000 ppm of madecasic acid, and 1,600 ppm of madecassoside, and long-term storage. There was no discoloration even at the time, and it was found that the main component remained stable thermodynamically. To mechanistically analyze the structure of the liposome vesicle of Centellasome-10EX, as a result of observation with a transmission electron microscope (Cryo-TEM), the multilayer vesicles are formed and filled with moisture, and there are 10 to 60 multilayers around it. It was confirmed that the liposome lamella vesicle was formed. As a clinical trial (in-vivo) test, the moisturizing effect of centellasome cream after application for 5 weeks was 28.3%, which was significantly increased compared to placebo. The skin elasticity effect was 13.6%, which significantly increased the moisturizing power than the placebo. The effect of improving fine wrinkles around the eyes was improved by 23.52% compared to placebo cream. Through the results of this study, it was possible to study the formulation and manufacturing method for encapsulation and stabilization of the developed Centellasome-10EX in the liposome vesicle. It is expected that the results obtained through clinical research on the wrinkle improvement effect of the cream using this can be widely used to study skin science in the cosmetic industry and to develop high-quality cosmetics with high efficacy.

Improvement of Melanin Production and Skin Tone by Fullerene Serum (플러린 함유 세럼의 멜라닌색소 및 피부톤 개선 효과)

  • Lim, Hyun-Sook;Lee, Mi-Bun;Lee, Jae-Nam
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.455-464
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    • 2018
  • This study investigated whether the whitening effects of fullerene serum occurred through improvement of melanin production and skin tone and evaluated its potential for use as a cosmetic material for adult women aged 30-55 with dull skin color and pigmentation. Subjects were divided into a control group with fullerene-less serum (B) and an experimental group with serum containing 0.1% fullerene (A) and evaluated over 8 weeks. Visual assessment and measurement of skin conditions (melanin index, skin brightness) were conducted before use of and 4 and 8 weeks after use of the product, and a questionnaire survey and safety assessment were conducted at the end of the experiment. The results revealed that the highest decrease was 0.37% in the experimental group (A) after eight weeks of use of the product, but that this difference was not statistically significant. Moreover, no significant differences were observed upon inter-group comparison. Evaluation of changes in the melanin index and inter-group comparison revealed a significant decline in the experimental group (A) at all time points. Additionally, the $L^*$ value (skin brightness) of the experimental group (A) showed a significant increase (improvement) after eight weeks, while in inter-group comparison revealed a significant increase (improvement) at all time points (4 and 8 weeks later) (p<0.05). Based on a questionnaire survey of efficacy, positive response rates such as improvement of the target parts on week 8 were high in terms of 'improvement of skin color.' Moreover, the safety assessment revealed no adverse reactions. In conclusion, serum containing 0.1% fullerene revealed improved melanin production and skin tone (brightness) and confirmed its potential for use as a cosmetic material with brightening efficacy. Taken together, the results of this study indicate systematic investigation of the effective application and cosmetics formulations of this product are warranted.

Development of Automated Region of Interest for the Evaluation of Renal Scintigraphy : Study on the Inter-operator Variability (신장 핵의학 영상의 정량적 분석을 위한 관심영역 자동설정 기능 개발 및 사용자별 분석결과의 변화도 감소효과 분석)

  • 이형구;송주영;서태석;최보영;신경섭
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2001
  • The quantification analysis of renal scintigraphy is strongly affected by the location, shape and size of region of interest(ROI). When ROIs are drawn manually, these ROIs are not reproducible due to the operators' subjective point of view, and may lead to inconsistent results even if the same data were analyzed. In this study, the effect of the ROI variation on the analysis of renal scintigraphy when the ROIs are drawn manually was investigated, and in order to obtain more consistent results, methods for automated ROI definition were developed and the results from the application of the developed methods were analyzed. Relative renal function, glomerular filtration rate and mean transit time were selected as clinical parameters for the analysis of the effect of ROI and the analysis tools were designed with the programming language of IDL5.2. To obtain renal scintigraphy, $^{99m}$Tc-DTPA was injected to the 11 adults of normal condition and to study the inter-operator variability, 9 researchers executed the analyses. The calculation of threshold using the gradient value of pixels and border tracing technique were used to define renal ROI and then the background ROI and aorta ROI were defined automatically considering anatomical information and pixel value. The automatic methods to define renal ROI were classified to 4 groups according to the exclusion of operator's subjectiveness. These automatic methods reduced the inter-operator variability remarkably in comparison with manual method and proved the effective tool to obtain reasonable and consistent results in analyzing the renal scintigraphy quantitatively.

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Limitations of National Responsibility and its Application on Marine Environmental Pollution beyond Borders -Focused on the Effects of China's Three Gorges Dam on the Marine Environment in the East China Sea- (국경을 넘는 해양환경오염에 대한 국가책임과 적용의 한계 -중국의 산샤댐 건설로 인한 동중국해 해양환경 영향을 중심으로-)

  • Yang, Hee Cheol
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.341-356
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    • 2015
  • A nation has a sovereign right to develop and use its natural resources according to its policies with regard to development and the relevant environment. A nation also has an obligation not to harm other countries or damage environments of neighboring countries as consequences of such actions of developments or use of natural resources. However, international precedents induce a nation to take additional actions not to cause more damages from the specific acts causing environmental damages beyond national borders, when such acts have economic and social importance. That is to say that there is a tendency to resolve such issues in a way to promote the balance between the mutual interests by allowing such actions to continue. A solution to China's Three Gorges Dam dilemma based on a soft law approach is more credible than relying on a good faith approach of national responsibilities and international legal proceedings since the construction and operation of the dam falls within the category of exercising national sovereign rights. If a large scale construction project such as the Three Gorges Dam or operation of a nuclear power plant causes or may cause environmental damage beyond the border of a nation engaged in such an undertaking, countries affected by this undertaking should jointly monitor the environmental effects in a spirit of cooperation rather than trying to stop the construction and should seek cooperative solutions of mutual understanding to establish measures to prevent further damages. If China's Three Gorges Dam construction and operation cause or contain the possibility of causing serious damages to marine environment, China cannot set aside its national responsibility to meet international obligations if China is aware of or knows about the damage that has occurred or may occur but fail to prevent, minimize, reverse or eliminate additional chances of such damages, or fails to put in place measures in order to prevent the recurrence of such damages. However, Korea must be able to prove a causal relationship between the relevant actions and resulting damages if it is to raise objections to the construction or request certain damage-prevention actions against crucial adverse effects on the marine environment out of respect for China's right to develop resources and acts of use thereof. Therefore, it is essential to cumulate continuous monitoring and evaluations information pertaining to marine environmental changes and impacts or responses of affected waters as well as acquisition of scientific baseline data with observed changes in such baseline. As China has adopted a somewhat nonchalant attitude toward taking adequate actions to protect against marine pollution risks or adverse effects caused by the construction and operation of China's Three Gorges Dam, there is a need to persuade China to adopt a more active stance and become involved in the monitoring and co-investigation of the Yellow Sea in order to protect the marine environment. Moreover, there is a need to build a regular environmental monitoring system that includes the evaluation of environmental effects beyond borders. The Espoo Convention can serve as a mechanism to ease potential conflicts of national interest in the Northeast Asian waters where political and historical sensitivities are acute. Especially, the recent diplomatic policy advanced by Korea and China can be implemented as an important example of gentle cooperation as the policy tool of choice is based on regional cooperation or cooperation between different regions.

The Contribution of Innovation Activity to the Output Growth of Emerging Economies: The Case of Kazakhstan

  • Smagulova, Sholpan;Mukasheva, Saltanat
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to analyse the state of the energy industry and to determine the efficiency of its functioning on the basis of energy conservation principle and application of innovative technologies aimed at improving the ecological modernisation of agricultural sectors of Kazakhstan. The research methodology is based on an integrated approach of financial and economic evaluation of the effectiveness of the investment project, based on calculation of elasticity, total costs and profitability, as well as on comparative, graphical and system analysis. The current stage is characterised by widely spread restructuring processes of electric power industry in many countries through introduction of new technical installations of energy facilities and increased government regulation in order to enhance the competitive advantage of electricity market. Electric power industry features a considerable value of creating areas. For example, by providing scientific and technical progress, it crucially affects not only the development but also the territorial organisation of productive forces, first of all the industry. In modern life, more than 90% of electricity and heat is obtained by Kazakhstan's economy by consuming non-renewable energy resources: different types of coal, oil shale, oil, natural gas and peat. Therefore, it is significant to ensure energy security, as the country faces a rapid fall back to mono-gas structure of fuel and energy balance. However, energy resources in Kazakhstan are spread very unevenly. Its main supplies are concentrated in northern and central parts of the republic, and the majority of consumers of electrical power live in the southern and western areas of the country. However, energy plays an important role in the economy of industrial production and to a large extent determines the level of competitive advantage, which is a promising condition for implementation of energy-saving and environmentally friendly technologies. In these circumstances, issues of modernisation and reforms of this sector in Kazakhstan gain more and more importance, which can be seen in the example of economically sustainable solutions of a large local monopoly company, significant savings in capital investment and efficiency of implementation of an investment project. A major disadvantage of development of electricity distribution companies is the prevalence of very high moral and physical amortisation of equipment, reaching almost 70-80%, which significantly increases the operating costs. For example, while an investment of 12 billion tenge was planned in 2009 in this branch, in 2012 it is planned to invest more than 17 billion. Obviously, despite the absolute increase, the rate of investment is still quite low, as the total demand in this area is at least more than 250 billion tenge. In addition, industrial infrastructure, including the objects of Kazakhstan electric power industry, have a tangible adverse impact on the environment. Thus, since there is a large number of various power projects that are sources of electromagnetic radiation, the environment is deteriorated. Hence, there is a need to optimise the efficiency of the organisation and management of production activities of energy companies, to create and implement new technologies, to ensure safe production and provide solutions to various environmental aspects. These are key strategic factors to ensure success of the modern energy sector of Kazakhstan. The contribution of authors in developing the scope of this subject is explained by the fact that there was not enough research in the energy sector, especially in the view of ecological modernisation. This work differs from similar works in Kazakhstan in the way that the proposed method of investment project calculation takes into account the time factor, which compares the current and future value of profit from the implementation of innovative equipment that helps to bring it to actual practise. The feasibility of writing this article lies in the need of forming a public policy in the industrial sector, including optimising the structure of energy disbursing rate, which complies with the terms of future modernised development of the domestic energy sector.

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Evaluation of Spatial and Temporal Variations of Water Quality in Lake Shihwa and Outer Sea by Using Water Quality Index in Korea: A Case Study of Influence of Tidal Power Plant Operation (수질평가지수를 이용한 시화호 내측 및 외측 해역의 시·공간적 수질 변화 평가: 조력발전소 가동에 따른 영향 연구)

  • Ra, Kongtae;Kim, Joung-Keun;Kim, Eun-Soo;Kim, Kyung-Tae;Lee, Jung-Moo;Kim, Sung-Keun;Kim, Eu-Yeol;Lee, Seung-Yong;Park, Eun-Ju
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.102-114
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    • 2013
  • The basin of Lake Shihwa is one of highly industrialized region of Korea and a current environmental issue of study area is the operation of tidal power plant (TPP) to improve water quality. The application of water quality index (WQI) which integrates five physiochemical parameters (transparency, DO, DIN, DIP and chlorophyll-a) of water quality in Lake Shihwa and outer sea during 2011~2012 were performed not only to evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of the water quality but also to assess the effect of water quality improvement by the operation of tidal power plant. The higher WQI values were observed in monitored sites near the industrial complexes in Lake Shihwa and the outfall of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in outer sea. This indicates that the quality of seawater is influenced by diffuse non-point sources from industrial, municipal and agricultural areas in Lake Shihwa and by point sources from the effluence of municipal and industrial wastewater throughout WWTPs in outer sea. Mean WQI value decreased from 53.0 in 2011 to 42.8 in 2012 of Lake Shihwa. Water quality has improved significantly after TPP operation because enhancement of seawater exchange between Lake Shihwa and outer sea leads to improve a hypoxic condition which is primarily a problem in Lake Shihwa. Mean WQI of outer sea showed similar values between 2011 and 2012. However, the results of hierarchical cluster analysis and the deterioration of water quality in summer season indicate that the operation of tidal power plant was not improved the water quality in the upper most area of Lake Shihwa. To successfully improve overall water quality of Lake Shihwa, it is urgently necessary to manage and reduce of non-point pollution sources of the basin of Lake Shihwa.

Evaluation of Legume Green Manure Crops for Spring-Sowing in the Central Regions of Korea (중부지역에서 이용 가능한 춘파용 두과 녹비작물 선발)

  • Cho, Hyeoun-Suk;Jeon, Weon-Tai;Seong, Ki-Yeung;Kim, Min-Tea;Lee, Jong-Ki;Kim, Chung-Guk;Jeong, Kwang-Ho
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.333-338
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    • 2010
  • The use of green manure crop for sustainable agriculture can reduce the use of chemical fertilizer and herbicides, and the cultivation area of the green manure crop has gradually increased. However, there has been little information about appropriate use of spring-sown green manure crop in the central regions of Korea. This study was conducted to investigate the effect of different legume crops on application of sown green manure in spring. Each of the green manure crops including alfalfa, chinese milk vetch, crimson clover, crotalaria, hairy vetch, lupin, red clover and white clover was grown in upland soil of silt loam. The dry weight and C/N ratio of all crops increased throughout the growing period, while C/N ratio of all crops during growing period was lower than 25. The highest value of dry weight among the green manure crops was observed in crimson clover, followed by red clover, lupin, chinese milk vetch and alfalfa. Also, the highest value of contents of nitrogen, phosphous and potassium of green manure crops were observed in hairy vetch, alfalfa and crimson clover, respectively. And the values were 41.3, 4.3 and 35.9 g $kg^{-1}$, respectively. In terms of nitrogen yield, crimson clover that showed 71 kg N $ha^{-1}$ was the highest yield among the green manure crops, followed by chinese milk vetch of 51 kg $ha^{-1}$, red clover of 46 kg $ha^{-1}$, and hairy vetch of 41 kg $ha^{-1}$. These results suggest that crimson clover, chinese milk vetch, red clover, and hairy vetch could be a suitable green manure crop for spring sowing.