• 상하수도학회지
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• 제24권5호
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• pp.509-517
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• 2010

Statistical distribution of annual maximum rainfall intensity of 18 cities in Korea was analyzed and applied to the reliability model which can calculate the probability of performance failure of storm sewer. After the analysis, it was found that distribution of annual maximum rainfall intensity of 18 cities in Korea is well matched with Gumbel distribution. Rational equation was used to estimate the load and Manning's equation was used to estimate the capacity in reliability function to calculate the probability of performance failure of storm sewer. Reliability analysis was performed by developed model applying to the real storm sewer. It was found that probability of performance failure is abruptly increased if the diameter is smaller than certain size. Therefore, cleaning the inside of storm sewer to maintain the original diameter can be one of the best ways to reduce the probability of performance failure. In the present study, probability of performance failure according to accumulation of debris in storm sewer was calculated. It was found that increasing the amount of debris seriously decrease the capacity of storm sewer and significantly increase the probability of performance failure.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.719-729
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• 2017

A considerable research is available on the seismic response of Reinforced Concrete (RC) shear wall-frame buildings, but the studies on the reliability of such buildings, with the consideration of human error, are limited. In the present study, a detailed procedure for reliability assessment of RC shear wall-frame building subjected to earthquake loading against serviceability limit state is presented. Monte Carlo simulation was used for the reliability assessment. The procedure was implemented on a 10-story RC building to demonstrate that the shear walls improve the reliability substantially. The annual and life-time failure probabilities of the studied building were estimated by employing the information of the annual probability of earthquake occurrence and the design life of the building. A simple risk-based cost assessment procedure that relates both the structural life-time failure probability and the target reliability with the total cost of the building was then presented. The structural failure probability (i.e., the probability of exceeding the allowable drift) considering human errors was also studied. It was observed that human error in the estimation of total load and/or concrete strength changes the reliability sharply.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제43권11호
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• pp.967-976
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• 2010

우수관의 성능이 한계상태(performance limit state)에 도달할 확률을 정량적으로 산정할 수 있는 FORM(First-Order Reliability Model)의 AFDA(Approximate Full Distribution Approach) 신뢰성 모형을 개발하였다. 우수관망에서 각각의 관으로 유입하는 유량이 그 관의 허용 가능 배출량을 초과하여 성능한계상태에 도달할 때 이를 파괴상태(failure state)라 정의하여 신뢰함수를 수립하였다. 우수관거로의 유입량은 합리식, 유출량은 Manning의 공식을 적용하였다. 또한 신뢰성 해석을 위한 관련 확률변수들에 대한 통계적 특성과 분포함수에 대한 해석이 수행되었다. 강우자료의 불확실성 해석에서 우리나라 여러 중소도시에 대한 연 최대강우강도의 확률분포가 Gumbel 극치분포함수와 일치함을 확인하였다. 개발된 신뢰성 모형을 Y자형 우수관망에 적용하여 성능한계상태가 발생할 확률, 즉 파괴확률(probability of failure)을 정량적으로 산정하였다. Manning의 공식을 이용하여 우수관의 직경 변화에 따른 파괴확률의 거동특성을 분석하였다. 특히 문경과 대전의 50년 재현기간을 갖는 설계 강우강도에 대한 우수관의 파괴확률을 산정한 결과에 의하면, 관의 직경이 특정수치 이하일 경우 파괴확률이 급격히 커지는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이는 실제 우수관의 유효직경이 설계직경에 가깝도록 항상 관내 불순물을 제거하는 것이 파괴확률을 줄이는 최선의 방법임을 의미하는 것이다. 또한 우수관 시스템의 경우 여러 개의 관이 모여 하나의 관으로 흘러 들어가는 경우가 많으며 이 경우 다중파괴유형(multiple failure mode)을 적용하여 시스템이 파괴상태에 도달할 확률을 정량적으로 산정하였다. 본 연구에서 개발된 신뢰성 모형은 우수관의 운용, 관리, 감독은 물론 설계에 활용이 가능 할 것이다.

• 한국지진공학회논문집
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.245-251
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• 2018

In this paper, we address some issues in existing seismic hazard closed-form equations and present a novel seismic hazard equation form to overcome these issues. The presented equation form is based on higher-order polynomials, which can well describe the seismic hazard information with relatively high non-linearity. The accuracy of the proposed form is illustrated not only in the seismic hazard data itself but also in estimating the annual probability of failure (APF) of the structural systems. For this purpose, the information on seismic hazard is used in representative areas of the United States (West : Los Angeles, Central : Memphis and Kansas, East : Charleston). Examples regarding the APF estimation are the analyses of existing platform structure and nuclear power plant problems. As a result of the numerical example analyses, it is confirmed that the higher-order-polynomial-based hazard form presented in this paper could predict the APF values of the two example structure systems as well as the given seismic hazard data relatively accurately compared with the existing closed-form hazard equations. Therefore, in the future, it is expected that we can derive a new improved APF function by combining the proposed hazard formula with the existing fragility equation.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.120-125
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• 2010

재현기간에 따른 설계파고 산정시 Gumbel 극치분포함수의 축척모수와 위치모수를 확률변수로 고려할 수 있는 Monte-Carlo 모의법을 제안하였다. 축척모수의 불확실성의 정도에 따라 설계파고의 불확실성의 정도가 결정되며 그 분포형태는 Gumbel 분포함수를 따른다. 또한 내용년수에 해당하는 최대 유의파고 분포특성을 이용하여 재현기간에 따른 설계파고를 산정하는 경우에 더 많은 불확실성이 포함된다. 한편 피복재의 파괴모드에 대한 신뢰성 해석을 수행하여 설계파고의 불확실성에 대한 영향을 검토하였다. 설계파고의 불확실성을 고려하는 방법에 따라 재현기간 50년 동안 5% 피해수준에 해당하는 파괴확률을 산정하여 비교하였다. 설계파고의 불확실성이 년 최대 유의파고자료의 불확실성과 같다고 가정하면 파괴확률이 넓은 범위에 걸쳐서 산정된다.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.317-326
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• 2003

The tension leg platform (TLP) is a moored floating offshore structure whose buoyancy is more than its weight. The mooring system, known as tethers, is vulnerable to failure due to extreme (maximum and minimum) tensions. In the present study the reliability of these tethers under maximum and minimum tension (ultimate limit state) has been studied. Von-Mises failure criteria has been adopted to define the failure of a tether against maximum tension. The minimum tension failure criteria has been assumed to meet when the tethers slack due to loss of tension. First Order Reliability method (FORM) has been adopted for reliability assessment. The reliability, in terms of reliability index, and probability of failure has been obtained for twelve sea states. The probabilities of failure so obtained for different sea states have been adopted for the calculation of annual and life time probabilities of failure.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.281-288
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• 1987

A total and consecutive 163 patients underwent cardiac valve replacement using the Hancock porcine xenograft cardiac valves from 1 976 to 1984. Of 198 substitute valves, 177 were the Hancock valves. One hundred twenty-nine patients[79.1%] had single valve replacement: MVR 118, AVR 8 and TVR 3; 33[20.3%] had double valve replacement: MVR+AVR 27 and MVR+TVR 6; and a single case had triple valve replacement. Other surgical procedures were added in 34 patients. The operative mortality rate within 30 days of surgery was 6.1%, and it was, however, 4.2%, with single MVR. Late mortality rate was 6.7% or 1.95%/patient-year of a linealized mortality rate. Early survivors of 153 patients were followed up for a total of 565.1 patient-years [a mean of 44.3*27.1 months]. The linealized annual complication rates were: 1.95% emboli/patient-year, 0.89% bleeding/patient-year 1.24% endocarditis/patient-year, and 4.25% overall failure/patient-year. Primary tissue failure occurred at a rate of 1.59%/patient-year. The actuarial survival rates including operative mortality were 87.0*4.1% and 77.3*6.6% at 5 and 11 years after surgery respectively. The probability of freedom from thromboembolic complication of 89.2*3.4% at 5 years after surgery lasted unchanged upto 11 years. The probability of freedom from overall valve failure was 81.3*4.5% at postoperative 5 years, and it dropped down to 26.2*19.4% at 11 years, although the latter was statistically insignificant because of a small number of patients entering into the years approaching the follow-up end. However, the probability of freedom from the primary tissue failure was 81.3*10.6% at postoperative 9 years, which coincides closely with the speculated rate of tissue degeneration of about 20% in 10 years. These clinical results confirm the low thrombogenicity of the Hancock porcine valve and the reasonable failure rate of tissue degeneration.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.225-233
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• 2004

본 연구에서는 응답면기법을 이용하여 격납건물의 내진안전성 평가를 하였다. ABAQUS를 이용하여 하중, 저항과 해석에서의 랜덤변수를 고려한 구조해석을 수행하였고 이로부터 변수의 다항식으로 표현되는 구조물의 응답을 얻었다. 그리고 Level II에 의해 신뢰성해석을 하였다. 한계상태함수로는 콘크리트의 2축응력 상태를 고려하기 위해 Drucker-Prager 파괴기준을 이용하였다. 구조물의 수명, 지진의 연발생율과 조건부 파괴확률을 고려하여 격납건물의 파괴확률을 계산하였다. 또한 응답면기법의 안정적인 결과를 얻기 위해 표본점 선정에 대한 민감도해석을 수행하였다.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.471-484
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• 2020

Previous earthquakes show that, structural safety evaluations should include the evaluation of nonstructural components. Failure of nonstructural components can affect the operational capacity of critical facilities, such as hospitals and fire stations, which can cause an increase in number of deaths. Additionally, failure of nonstructural components may result in economic, architectural, and historical losses of community. Accelerations and random vibrations must be under the predefined limitations in structures with high technological equipment, data centers in this case. Failure of server equipment and anchored server racks are investigated in this study. A probabilistic study is completed for a low-rise rigid sample structure. The structure is investigated in two versions, (i) conventional fixed-based structure and (ii) with a base isolation system. Seismic hazard assessment is completed for the selected site. Monte Carlo simulations are generated with selected parameters. Uncertainties in both structural parameters and mechanical properties of isolation system are included in simulations. Anchorage failure and vibration failures are investigated. Different methods to generate fragility curves are used. The site-specific annual hazard curve is used to generate risk curves for two different structures. A risk matrix is proposed for the design of data centers. Results show that base isolation systems reduce the failure probability significantly in higher floors. It was also understood that, base isolation systems are highly sensitive to earthquake characteristics rather than variability in structural and mechanical properties, in terms of accelerations. Another outcome is that code-provided anchorage failure limitations are more vulnerable than the random vibration failure limitations of server equipment.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2010년도 정기 학술발표대회
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• pp.16-24
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• 2010

This paper introduces the applications of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES), which is developed by the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering (NCREE). Seismic disaster simulation technology (SDST) integrates geographical information system to assess the distribution of ground shaking intensity, ground failure probability, building damages, casualties, post-quake fires, debris, lifeline interruptions, economic losses, etc. given any set of seismic source parameters. The SDST may integrate with Taiwan Rapid Earthquake Information Release System (TREIRS) developed by Central Weather Bureau (CWB) to obtain valuable information soon after large earthquakes and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources more efficiently. The SDST may also integrate with probabilistic seismic source model to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss, probable maximum loss in one event, and exceeding probability curves of various kinds of losses, to help proposing feasible countermeasures and risk management strategies.