• 제목/요약/키워드: Annual maximum flood flows

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3변수 및 4변수 Kappa 분포에 의한 설계홍수량 추정 (Estimation of Design Floods Using 3 and 4 Parameter Kappa Distributions)

  • 맹승진;김병준;김형산
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제51권4호
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    • pp.49-55
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    • 2009
  • This paper is to induce design floods through L-moment with 3 and 4 parameter Kappa distributions including test of independence by Wald-Wolfowitz, homogeneity by Mann-Whitney and outlier by Grubbs-Beck on annual maximum flood flows at 9 water level gaging stations in Han, Nakdong and Geum Rivers of South Korea. After analyzing appropriateness of the data of annual maximum flood flows by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, 3 and 4 Kappa distributions were applied and the appropriateness was judged. The parameters of 3 and 4 Kappa distributions were estimated by L-moment method and the design floods by water level gaging station was calculated. Through the comparative analysis using the relative root mean square errors (RRMSE) and relative absolute errors (RAE) calculated by 3 and 4 parameter Kappa distributions with 4 plotting position formulas, the result showed that the design floods by 4 parameter Kappa distribution with Weibull and Cunnane plotting position formulas are closer to the observed data than those obtained by 3 parameter Kappa distribution with 4 plotting position formulas and 4 parameter Kappa distribution with Hazen and Gringorten plotting position formulas.

Wakeby 및 Kappa 분포의 L-모멘트법에 의한 홍수빈도분석 (Flood Frequency Analysis by Wakeby and Kappa Distributions Using L-Moments)

  • 맹승진;이순혁;이현규;류경식;송기현
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제48권5호
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2006
  • The objective of this study is to induce the design floods by the methodology of L-moment including test of homogeneity, independence and outlier of the data of annual maximum flood flows for 12 water level gaging stations of South Korea. To select appropriate distribution of the data for annual maximum flood flows, the distributions of Wakeby and Kappa are applied and the appropriateness is judged by Kolmogorov-smirnov (K-S) test. The parameters of selected Wakeby and Kappa distributions are calculated by the method of L-moment and the design floods are induced. Through the comparative analysis using the relative root mean square errors (RRMSE) and relative absolute errors (RAE) of design floods, the result shows that the design floods by Wakeby distribution are closer to the observed data than those obtained by the Kappa distribution.

수리구조물의 파괴위험도와 설계홍수량에 관한 수문학적 연구(II) - 비연초과치 계열을 중심으로 - (Hydrological Studies on the design flood and risk of failure of the Hydraulic Structures( II))

  • 이순혁;박명근
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제28권3호
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 1986
  • This studies were established to find out the characteristics of frequency distributiom for the number of occurrence and magnitude, probable flood flows according to the return periods, design floods, and design frequency factors for the studying basins in relation to the risk levels which can be correlated with design return period and the life of structure in the non-annual exceedance series. Eight watersheds along Han, Geum, Nak Dong and Seom Jin river basin were selected as studying basins. The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Poisson distribution and Exponential distribution were tested as a good fitted distributions for the number of occurrence and magnitude for exceedance event, respectively,at selected watersheds along Han, Geum, Nak Dong and Seom Jin river basin. 2.Formulas for the probable flood flows and probable flood flows according to the return periods were derivated for the exponential distribution at the selected watersheds along Han, Geum, Nak Dong, and Seom Jin river basin. 3.Analysis for the risk of failure was connected return period with design life of structure in the non-annual exceedance series. 4.Empirical formulas for the design frequency factors were derivated from under the condition of the return periods identify with the life of structure in relation to the different risk levels in the non-annual exceedance series. 5.Design freguency factors were appeared to be increased in proportion to the return periods while those are in inverse proportion to the levels of the risk of failure. Numerical values for the design frequency factors for the non-annual exceedance series ware appeared generally higher than those of annual maximum series already published by the first report. 6. Design floods according to the different risk levels could be derivated by using of formulas of the design frequency factors for all studying watersheds in the nor-annual exceedance series.

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Flood Frequency Analysis by the Box-Cox Transformation

  • 이순혁;조성갑;박명곤
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제32권E호
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    • pp.20-32
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    • 1990
  • Abstract This study was conducted to pursue the normalization of frequency distribution by making an approach to the coefficient of skewness to nearly zero through the Box-Cox transformation, to get probable flood flows can be calculated by means of the transformation equation which has been derivated by Box-Cox transformation in the annual maximum series of the applied watersheds. It has been concluded that Box-Cox transfromation is proved to be more efficient than logarithmic, square root and SMEMAX transformation which is based on the trigonometric solution of a right triangle whose three verteces repesent the smallest, median and largest observed values of a population in making the coefficient of skewness nearer to zero. Consequently it is shown that probable flood flows according to the return period based on Box-Cox transformation are closer to the observed data as compared to other methods including SMEMAX transformation and fitted probability distributions such as the three parameter lognormal and the type I extremal distribution for the applied watersheds.

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Low Outliers를 고려한 홍수빈도분석에 관한 연구 (A study on the Flood Frequency Analyzed in Consideration of Low Outliers.)

  • 이순혁;홍성표;박명근
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제30권4호
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    • pp.62-70
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    • 1988
  • This study was conducted to solve the problems for the unsuitable parameters and the uncertainty of design flood can be appeared by low outliers were inclined to the lower part from the trend of the balance of the data. Derivation of reasonable design flood was attempted finally by modification of low outliers with analysis of flood frequency by means of Log Pearson Type Ill distribution. Three subwatersheds were selected as studying basins with the annual maximum series including low outliers along Geum River basin. The results through this study were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Log Pearson Type In distribution was confirmed as a reasonable one by X$^2$ goodness of fit test at Gong Ju, Gyu Am, og Cheon watershed along Geum River basin. 2. Probable flood flows for each watershed were derivated by flood frequency curve with outliers. 3. Weighted skew coefficient for each watershed was calculated for the evaluation of freq- uency factor which is needed for the modification of low outlier. 4. It was confirrned that adjusted frequency curve has a lower tendency than that of deletion of low outlier in common at all watersheds. 5. Final probable flood flows were derivated by modification with evaluation of modified basic statistics for three watersheds. 6. In comparison with a frequency curve with modification and one with outlier, The former has a higher probable flood flow within three years of return periods than that of the latter, and vice versa over three years of return periods.

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광양만의 해수유동에 관하여 (The Circulation in Kwang Yang Bay)

  • 윤갑동
    • 수산해양기술연구
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.19-24
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    • 1976
  • A series of physical oceanographic investigations of the circulation in the Kwang Bay' were carried out seven times from May 1974 to May 1975 every other month. The average water transports through the southern entrance of the' Kwang Yang Bay were approximately $1,014{\times}I0^6m^3$/half-tide in ebb current and $278{\times}10^6m^3$$405.6{\times}I0^6m^34/half-tide in ebb current, and $282{\times}10^6m^3 $/half-tide in flood current, at the maximum current intensity. The water from Seomjin River flows into the bay at an annual average rate of $84{\times}I0^6m^3$/half-tide, the rate being fluctuated from month to month from $6.0\times}10^6m^3 $to $11. 5{\times}I0^6m^3 $per half-tide.

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LH-모멘트의 차수에 따른 설계홍수량 추정 (Estimation of Design Flood by the Determination of Best Fitting Order for LH-Moments)

  • 맹승진;이순혁
    • 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국농공학회 2002년도 학술발표회 발표논문집
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    • pp.233-236
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    • 2002
  • This study was conducted to estimate the design flood by the determination of best fitting order for LH-moments of the annual maximum series at fifteen watersheds. Parameters of GEV distribution and flood flows of return period n years were derived by the methods of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments. Frequency analysis of flood flow data generated by Monte Carlo simulation was performed by the methods of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments using GEV distribution. Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE), Relative Bias (RBIAS) and Relative Efficiency (RE) using methods of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments for GEV distribution were computed and compared with those resulting from Monte Carlo simulation. At almost all of the watersheds, the more the order of LH-moments and the return periods increased, the more RE became, while the less RRMSE and RBIAS became. Consequently, design floods for the applied watersheds were derived by the methods of L3 and L4-moments among LH-moments in view of high confidence efficiency.

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水利構造物의 破壞危險度와 設計洪水量에 관한 水文學的 硏究(Ⅰ) -年最高値 系列을 中心으로- (Hydrological Studies on the flood and Risk of failure of the Hydraulic Structures(Ⅰ) -On the annual maximum series-)

  • 이순혁;박명근
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.23-37
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    • 1985
  • This studies were carried out to get characteristics of frequency distribution, probable flood flows according to the return periods, and the correlation between return periods and those length of records affect the Risk of failure in the annual maximum series of the main river systems in Korea. Especially, Risk analysis according to the levels were emphasized in relation to the design frequency factors for the different watersheds. Twelve watersheds along Han, Geum, Nak Dong, Yeong San and Seom Jin river basin were selected as studying basins. The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Type 1 extremal distribution was newly confirmed as a good fitted distribution at selected watersheds along Geum and Yeong San river basin. Three parameter lognormal Seom Jin river basin. Consequently, characteristics of frequency distribution for the extreme value series could be changed in connection with the watershed location even the same river system judging from the results so far obtained by author. 2. Evaluation of parameters for Type 1 extremal and three parameter lognormal distribution based on the method of moment by using an electronic computer. 3. Formulas for the probable flood flows were derived for the three parameter lognormal and Type 1 extremal distribution. 4. Equations for the risk to failure could be simplified as $\frac{n}{N+n}$ and $\frac{n}{T}$ under the condition of non-parametric method and the longer return period than the life of project, respectively. 5. Formulas for the return periods in relation to frequency factors were derived by the least square method for the three parameter lognormal and Type 1 extremal distribution. 6. The more the length of records, the lesser the risk of failure, and it was appeared that the risk of failure was increasing in propotion to the length of return periods even same length of records. 7. Empirical formulas for design frequency factors were derived from under the condition of the return periods identify with the life of Hydraulic structure in relation to the risk level. 8. Design frequency factor was appeared to be increased in propotion to the return periods while it is in inverse proportion to the levels of the risk of failure. 9. Derivation of design flood including the risk of failure could be accomplished by using of emprical formulas for the design frequency factor for each watershed.

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LH-모멘트의 적정 차수 결정에 의한 설계홍수량 추정(II) (Estimation of Design Flood by the Determination of Best Fitting Order of LH-Moments(II))

  • 맹승진;이순혁
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제45권1호
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 2003
  • This study was conducted to estimate the design flood by the determination of best fitting order for LH-moments of the annual maximum series at fifteen watersheds. Using the LH-moment ratios and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the optimal regional probability distribution was identified to be the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) in the first report of this project. Parameters of GEV distribution and flood flows of return period n years were derived by the methods of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments. Frequency analysis of flood flow data generated by Monte Carlo simulation was performed by the methods of L, L1, L2, L3 and L4-moments using GEV distribution. Relative Root Mean Square Error. (RRMSE), Relative Bias (RBIAS) and Relative Efficiency (RE.) using methods of L, Ll , L2, L3 and L4-moments for GEV distribution were computed and compared with those resulting from Monte Carlo simulation. At almost all of the watersheds, the more the order of LH-moments and the return periods increased, the more RE became, while the less RRMSE and RBIAS became. The Absolute Relative Reduction (ARR) for the design flood was computed. The more the order of LH-moments increased, the less ARR of all applied watershed became It was confirmed that confidence efficiency of estimated design flood was increased as the order of LH-moments increased. Consequently, design floods for the appled watersheds were derived by the methods of L3 and L4-moments among LH-moments in view of high confidence efficiency.