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Investigation on Characteristics of Swine Manure of Optimum Volume for Escalator Reversing Composting Facility (돼지분뇨 특성에 따른 기계교반 퇴비화시설의 적정용적 산정 연구)

  • Kwag, J.H.;Choi, D.Y.;Park, C.H.;Jeong, K.H.;Kim, J.H.;Yoo, Y.H.;Youn, C.K.;Ra, C.S.
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.105-112
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    • 2008
  • This study was carried out to investigate evaporation rate of moisture per surface area and degradation rate of organic matter in full scale escalator reversing composting facility were analyzed to develope a computer program for the computation of an optimum volume of composting facility according to handling methods of swine farm, moisture levels of manure, degradation rate of organics and evaporation rate of moisture during composting. The obtained results can be followed as bellow; The temperature in full scale escalator reversing composting facility during composting reached $70^{\circ}C$ in 4 days and maintained until 11 days. Reduction rate of moisture and density was average 1.20% and 29.7%, respectively. Annual degradation rate of organic matter was 3.53%, showing lowest rate in winter as 3.23%. These seasonal degradation rate could be a factor to be considered for proper management and installation of composting facility. When computed with the amount of feces, urine, slurry and manure plus wastewater produced, the optimum volumes of composting facility for slurry and manure plus wastewater including each 95% moisture was $229m^3$ and $277m^3$, respectively, showing 21% ($48m^3$) difference.

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A Study on the Behavior and Deposition of Acid Precipitation-comparison of Chemical Composition of Rain Water between Chunchon and seoul (산성강하물의 침착량과 동태 해명에 관한 연구-춘천과 서울 강우의 화학조성 비교)

  • Kim, Man-Goo;Kang, Mi-Hee;Lim, Yang-Suck;Park, Ki-Jun;Hwang, Hoon;Lee, Bo-Kyung;Hong, Seung-Hee;Lee, Dong-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.89-100
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    • 1999
  • The rain water samples were collected at Chunchon and Seoul by using wet only automatic sampler from January 1996 through 1997. The daily base rain water samples collected over than 95% rainy events components, $SO_4^{-2}$, $NO_3^-$, $CI^-$, NH_4^+$, $Ca^{2+}$, $Mg^{2+}$, $Na^+$, and $K^+$, by ion chromatography. In 1996, about 77% of sampled rain water showed below pH 5.6 and the 60% of rain water was lower than pH 5.0. The volume weighted average pH was 4.7 at all sites. In 1997, the volume weighted average pH was 4.6 and 4.9 at Seoul and Chunchon, respectively. Among the rain water samples,, 87% and 55% fo samples showed below than pH 5.6 and 5.0, respectively. The pH value of Chunchon was significantly (p<0.05) lower than Seoul at the rain samples for less than 20mm rainfall. However conductivity of the rain samples were 20.9$\mu$S/cm for 1996 and 27.7$\mu$S/cm for 1997 at Seoul, and 19.1$\mu$S/cm for 1996 and 14.1$\mu$S/cm for 1997 at Chunchon. $H_2SO_4$ and $HNO_3$ contributed 65.9% and 29.6% of free acidity at Seoul, respectively. The ratio of [$NO_3^-$]/[nss-$SO_4^{-2}$] were 0.43 at Seoul and 0.51 at Chunchon for rain samples for less than 20mm rainfall. The annual wet deposition of $CI^-$, $NO_3^-$, $SO_4^{-2}$, $H^+$M, $Na^+$, NH_4^+$, $K^+$, $Mg^{2+}$, and $Ca^{2+}$, respectively, 568.8kg/$ extrm{km}^2$, 1489.3kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 3184.8kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 20.9kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 249.4kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 1091.2kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 189.8kg/ $\textrm{km}^2$, 90.2kg/$\textrm{km}^2$ and 702.4kg/$\textrm{km}^2$ at Seoul for 1996; 656.4kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 2029.7kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 3280.7kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 27.2kg /$\textrm{km}^2$, 229.4kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 1063.9kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 106.9kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 78.2kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 645.3kg/$\textrm{km}^2$ at Seoul for 1997; 116.9kg/ $\textrm{km}^2$, 983.3kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 1797.0kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 21.4kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 83.2kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 648.1kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 78.0kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 22.2kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 368.8kg/$\textrm{km}^2$ at chunchon for 1996; 100.2kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 1077.6kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 1754.0kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 13.4kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 146.0kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 602.3kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 88.8kg/$\textrm{km}^2$, 16.2kg/$\textrm{km}^2$ and 206.8kg/$\textrm{km}^2$ at chunchon for 1997.

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A Study on the Effect of 2010 HNS Convention on Korean Industry (위험·유해물질 피해보상 국제협약의 우리 산업계에 대한 영향 고찰)

  • Kim, Ji-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2020
  • The IOPC Fund general assembly reported that the International Convention on Liability and Compensation for Damage in Connection with the Carriage of Hazardous and Noxious Substances by Sea (known as the HNS Convention) will meet the requirement for the convention to take ef ect between 2021 and 2022. When the convention comes into effect, the liability-limit insurance of the HNS transport ship will be enforced and the shipper receiving the HNS will pay the share of the contribution from the International Fund for damages exceeding the limit of the ship's liability insurance. Korea is one of the major shipping and shipper countries in the world; thus, this study aimed to the need to analyze the effect of the convention on the related industries. The survey of ships and contribution targets analyzed the research data of the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries. The P&I premium estimation was reviewed by the Korea Shipping Association and the K P&I as insured ships. In addition, the contribution of the HNS cargo volume was analyzed in an annual report by a representative international association for each cargo. About 1,500 ocean-going and domestic vessels have been identified as ships subject to the convention. The effect of changes in premiums under the convention was minimal for most ships. The effect of the shipping industry is expected, with about 150 domestic tankers expected to increase insurance premiums. In the case of shipper industries, 52 freight terminals were found to be eligible for the payment of the share of the international fund, as the proportion of freight volume in Korea was ranked second to fourth in the world by individual HNS accounts. This implies the obligation to pay contributions according to the convention. Considering the status of HNS transport ships entering and leaving ports and the quantity of HNS cargo, it can be concluded that the validity of Korea's convention is sufficient and that, it is necessary to coordinate with global major shipper countries.

Performance of Investment Strategy using Investor-specific Transaction Information and Machine Learning (투자자별 거래정보와 머신러닝을 활용한 투자전략의 성과)

  • Kim, Kyung Mock;Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.65-82
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    • 2021
  • Stock market investors are generally split into foreign investors, institutional investors, and individual investors. Compared to individual investor groups, professional investor groups such as foreign investors have an advantage in information and financial power and, as a result, foreign investors are known to show good investment performance among market participants. The purpose of this study is to propose an investment strategy that combines investor-specific transaction information and machine learning, and to analyze the portfolio investment performance of the proposed model using actual stock price and investor-specific transaction data. The Korea Exchange offers daily information on the volume of purchase and sale of each investor to securities firms. We developed a data collection program in C# programming language using an API provided by Daishin Securities Cybosplus, and collected 151 out of 200 KOSPI stocks with daily opening price, closing price and investor-specific net purchase data from January 2, 2007 to July 31, 2017. The self-organizing map model is an artificial neural network that performs clustering by unsupervised learning and has been introduced by Teuvo Kohonen since 1984. We implement competition among intra-surface artificial neurons, and all connections are non-recursive artificial neural networks that go from bottom to top. It can also be expanded to multiple layers, although many fault layers are commonly used. Linear functions are used by active functions of artificial nerve cells, and learning rules use Instar rules as well as general competitive learning. The core of the backpropagation model is the model that performs classification by supervised learning as an artificial neural network. We grouped and transformed investor-specific transaction volume data to learn backpropagation models through the self-organizing map model of artificial neural networks. As a result of the estimation of verification data through training, the portfolios were rebalanced monthly. For performance analysis, a passive portfolio was designated and the KOSPI 200 and KOSPI index returns for proxies on market returns were also obtained. Performance analysis was conducted using the equally-weighted portfolio return, compound interest rate, annual return, Maximum Draw Down, standard deviation, and Sharpe Ratio. Buy and hold returns of the top 10 market capitalization stocks are designated as a benchmark. Buy and hold strategy is the best strategy under the efficient market hypothesis. The prediction rate of learning data using backpropagation model was significantly high at 96.61%, while the prediction rate of verification data was also relatively high in the results of the 57.1% verification data. The performance evaluation of self-organizing map grouping can be determined as a result of a backpropagation model. This is because if the grouping results of the self-organizing map model had been poor, the learning results of the backpropagation model would have been poor. In this way, the performance assessment of machine learning is judged to be better learned than previous studies. Our portfolio doubled the return on the benchmark and performed better than the market returns on the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 indexes. In contrast to the benchmark, the MDD and standard deviation for portfolio risk indicators also showed better results. The Sharpe Ratio performed higher than benchmarks and stock market indexes. Through this, we presented the direction of portfolio composition program using machine learning and investor-specific transaction information and showed that it can be used to develop programs for real stock investment. The return is the result of monthly portfolio composition and asset rebalancing to the same proportion. Better outcomes are predicted when forming a monthly portfolio if the system is enforced by rebalancing the suggested stocks continuously without selling and re-buying it. Therefore, real transactions appear to be relevant.

Estimating Optimal Timber Production for the Economic and Public Functions of the National Forests in South Korea (국유림의 경제적·공익적 기능을 고려한 적정 목재생산량 추정)

  • Yujin Jeong;Younghwan Kim;Yoonseong Chang;Dooahn Kwak;Gihyun Park;Dayoung Kim;Hyungsik Jeong;Hee Han
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.4
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    • pp.561-573
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    • 2023
  • National forests have an advantage over private forests in terms of higher investment in capital, technology, and labor, allowing for more intensive management. As such, national forests are expected to serve not only as a strategic reserve of forest resources to address the long-term demand for timber but also to stably perform various essential forest functions demanded by society. However, most forest stands in the current national forests belong to the fourth age class or above, indicating an imminent timber harvesting period amid an imbalanced age class structure. Therefore, if timber harvesting is not conducted based on systematic management planning, it will become difficult to ensure the continuity of the national forests' diverse functions. This study was conducted to determine the optimal volume of timber production in the national forests to improve the age-class structure while sustainably maintaining their economic and public functions. To achieve this, the study first identified areas within the national forests suitable for timber production. Subsequently, a forest management planning model was developed using multi-objective linear programming, taking into account both the national forests' economic role and their public benefits. The findings suggest that approximately 488,000 hectares within the national forests are suitable for timber production. By focusing on management of these areas, it is possible to not only improve the age-class distribution but also to sustainably uphold the forests' public benefits. Furthermore, the potential volume of timber production from the national forests for the next 100 years would be around 2 million m3 per year, constituting about 44% of the annual domestic timber supply.

The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policies for R&D Investment (R&D 투자 촉진을 위한 재정지원정책의 효과분석)

  • Song, Jong-Guk;Kim, Hyuk-Joon
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.1-48
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    • 2009
  • Recently we have found some symptoms that R&D fiscal incentives might not work well what it has intended through the analysis of current statistics of firm's R&D data. Firstly, we found that the growth rate of R&D investment in private sector during the recent decade has been slowdown. The average of growth rate (real value) of R&D investment is 7.1% from 1998 to 2005, while it was 13.9% from 1980 to 1997. Secondly, the relative share of R&D investment of SME has been decreased to 21%('05) from 29%('01), even though the tax credit for SME has been more beneficial than large size firm, Thirdly, The R&D expenditure of large size firms (besides 3 leading firms) has not been increased since late of 1990s. We need to find some evidence whether fiscal incentives are effective in increasing firm's R&D investment. To analyse econometric model we use firm level unbalanced panel data for 4 years (from 2002 to 2005) derived from MOST database compiled from the annual survey, "Report on the Survey of Research and Development in Science and Technology". Also we use fixed effect model (Hausman test results accept fixed effect model with 1% of significant level) and estimate the model for all firms, large firms and SME respectively. We have following results from the analysis of econometric model. For large firm: i ) R&D investment responds elastically (1.20) to sales volume. ii) government R&D subsidy induces R&D investment (0.03) not so effectively. iii) Tax price elasticity is almost unity (-0.99). iv) For large firm tax incentive is more effective than R&D subsidy For SME: i ) Sales volume increase R&D investment of SME (0.043) not so effectively. ii ) government R&D subsidy is crowding out R&D investment of SME not seriously (-0.0079) iii) Tax price elasticity is very inelastic (-0.054) To compare with other studies, Koga(2003) has a similar result of tax price elasticity for Japanese firm (-1.0036), Hall((l992) has a unit tax price elasticity, Bloom et al. (2002) has $-0.354{\sim}-0.124$ in the short run. From the results of our analysis we recommend that government R&D subsidy has to focus on such an areas like basic research and public sector (defense, energy, health etc.) not overlapped private R&D sector. For SME government has to focus on establishing R&D infrastructure. To promote tax incentive policy, we need to strengthen the tax incentive scheme for large size firm's R&D investment. We recommend tax credit for large size film be extended to total volume of R&D investment.

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Publication Report of the Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences over its History of 15 Years - A Review

  • Han, In K.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.124-136
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    • 2002
  • As an official journal of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies (AAAP), the Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences (AJAS) was born in February 1987 and the first issue (Volume 1, Number 1) was published in March 1988 under the Editorship of Professor In K. Han (Korea). By the end of 2001, a total of 84 issues in 14 volumes and 1,761 papers in 11,462 pages had been published. In addition to these 14 volumes, a special issue entitled "Recent Advances in Animal Nutrition" (April, 2000) and 3 supplements entitled "Proceedings of the 9th AAAP Animal Science Congress" (July, 2000) were also published. Publication frequency has steadily increased from 4 issues in 1988, to 6 issues in 1997 and to 12 issues in 2000. The total number of pages per volume and the number of original or review papers published also increased. Some significant milestones in the history of the AJAS include that (1) it became a Science Citation Index (SCI) journal in 1997, (2) the impact factor of the journal improved from 0.257 in 1999 to 0.446 in 2000, (3) it became a monthly journal (12 issues per volume) in 2000, (4) it adopted an English editing system in 1999, and (5) it has been covered in "Current Contents/Agriculture, Biology and Environmental Science since 2000. The AJAS is subscribed by 842 individuals or institutions. Annual subscription fees of US$ 50 (Category B) or US$ 70 (Category A) for individuals and US$ 70 (Category B) or US$ 120 (Category A) for institutions are much less than the actual production costs of US$ 130. A list of the 1,761 papers published in AJAS, listed according to subject area, may be found in the AJAS homepage (http://www.ajas.snu.ac.kr) and a very well prepared "Editorial Policy with Guide for Authors" is available in the Appendix of this paper. With regard to the submission status of manuscripts from AAAP member countries, India (235), Korea (235) and Japan (198) have submitted the most manuscripts. On the other hand, Mongolia, Nepal, and Papua New Guinea have never submitted any articles. The average time required from submission of a manuscript to printing in the AJAS has been reduced from 11 months in 1997-2000 to 7.8 months in 2001. The average rejection rate of manuscripts was 35.3%, a percentage slightly higher than most leading animal science journals. The total number of scientific papers published in the AJAS by AAAP member countries during a 14-year period (1988-2001) was 1,333 papers (75.7%) and that by non- AAAP member countries was 428 papers (24.3%). Japanese animal scientists have published the largest number of papers (397), followed by Korea (275), India (160), Bangladesh (111), Pakistan (85), Australia (71), Malaysia (59), China (53), Thailand (53), and Indonesia (34). It is regrettable that the Philippines (15), Vietnam (10), New Zealand (8), Nepal (2), Mongolia (0) and Papua New Guinea (0) have not actively participated in publishing papers in the AJAS. It is also interesting to note that the top 5 countries (Bangladesh, India, Japan, Korea and Pakistan) have published 1,028 papers in total indicating 77% of the total papers being published by AAAP animal scientists from Vol. 1 to 14 of the AJAS. The largest number of papers were published in the ruminant nutrition section (591 papers-44.3%), followed by the non-ruminant nutrition section (251 papers-18.8%), the animal reproduction section (153 papers-11.5%) and the animal breeding section (115 papers-8.6%). The largest portion of AJAS manuscripts was reviewed by Korean editors (44.3%), followed by Japanese editors (18.1%), Australian editors (6.0%) and Chinese editors (5.6%). Editors from the rest of the AAAP member countries have reviewed slightly less than 5% of the total AJAS manuscripts. It was regrettably noticed that editorial members representing Nepal (66.7%), Mongolia (50.0%), India (35.7%), Pakistan (25.0%), Papua New Guinea (25.0%), Malaysia (22.8%) and New Zealand (21.5%) have failed to return many of the manuscripts requested to be reviewed by the Editor-in-Chief. Financial records show that Korea has contributed the largest portion of production costs (68.5%), followed by Japan (17.3%), China (8.3%), and Australia (3.5%). It was found that 6 AAAP member countries have contributed less than 1% of the total production costs (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea and Thailand), and another 6 AAAP member countries (Mongolia, Nepal and Pakistan, Philippine and Vietnam) have never provided any financial contribution in the form of subscriptions, page charges or reprints. It should be pointed out that most AAAP member countries have published more papers than their financial input with the exception of Korea and China. For example, Japan has published 29.8% of the total papers published in AJAS by AAAP member countries. However, Japan has contributed only 17.3% of total income. Similar trends could also be found in the case of Australia, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. A total of 12 Asian young animal scientists (under 40 years of age) have been awarded the AJAS-Purina Outstanding Research Award which was initiated in 1990 with a donation of US$ 2,000-3,000 by Mr. K. Y. Kim, President of Agribrands Purina Korea Inc. In order to improve the impact factor (citation frequency) and the financial structure of the AJAS, (1) submission of more manuscripts of good quality should be encouraged, (2) subscription rate of all AAAP member countries, especially Category B member countries should be dramatically increased, (3) a page charge policy and reprint ordering system should be applied to all AAAP member countries, and (4) all AAAP countries, especially Category A member countries should share more of the financial burden (advertisement revenue or support from public or private sector).

Environmental Management of Marine Cage Fish Farms using Numerical Modelling (수치모델을 이용한 해상어류가두리양식장의 환경관리 방안)

  • Kwon, Jung-No;Jung, Rae-Hong;Kang, Yang-Soon;An, Kyoung-Ho;Lee, Won-Chan
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.181-195
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    • 2005
  • To study the effects of aquaculture activity of marine cage fish farms on marine environment, field researches including hydrography, sediment, benthos and trap experiment at the marine cage fish farms(Site A) around estuaries of Tongyeong city were carried out during June $26\~27$, 2003. A simulation using numerical model-DEPOMOD was conducted to predict the solid deposition from fish cage and to assess the probable solid deposition, and the efficiency of environmental management of marine cage fish farms was studied. The marine cage fish farms cultured mainly common sea bass (Lateolabrax japonicus), red seabream (Pagrus major), striped breakperch (Oplegnathus fasciatus) and black rockfish(Sebastes schlegeli), and total amount of cultured fish of the Site A were 23.1MT. The amount of husbandry fish by unit area(and volume) of the fish cage was $43.0kg\;m^{-2}(6.1kg\;m^{-3})$. The daily mean amounts of food fed by unit biomass and cage area were $30.8g\;kg^{-1}day^{-1},\;1.32kg\;m^{-2}day^{-1},$ respectively, at the Site A. The concentration of ORP of the sediment below the center at the Site A was -334.6 mV and the concentrations of AVS, COD, Carbon and Nitrogen were $0.43mg\;g^{-1}dry,\;17.75mg\;g^{-1}dry,\;10.19mg\;g^{-1}dry\;and\;3.49mg\;g^{-1}dry$, respectively. Capitella capitata was dominant benthic species which occupied $57.8\%$ of total species, and the Infaunal Trophical Index(ITI) was marked below 20 within 20 m distance from the edge of the Site A. The result of trap experiment, the solid deposition from the Site A was $34,485g\;m^{-2}yr^{-1}$ at 0 m from the center of the cage and $18,915g\;m^{-2}yr^{-1}$ at 42 m. From a model simulation, it was estimated that using a model simulation, the proportion of unfed food was $40\%$ at the Site A and the annual total amount of solid deposition was 63,401 accounting for $24.4\%$ of the annual total food fed at the Site A. The area solid deposition settled was estimated to be $8,450m^2$, which was about 16 times of the total area of fish cage at the Site A. And concerning ITI and abundance of benthos, the model predicted that sustainable solid flux at the Site A was below $10,000gm^{-2}yr^{-1}$. The percentage of food wasted was main element of solid deposition at the marine cage fish farms, and for minimizing solid deposition it is necessary to increase the efficiency of the food uptake. Based on the result of the model simulation, if the percentage of food wasted decreases to $10\%$ from the current $40\%$, then the solid deposition could decrease to a half. In addition, it was predicted that if farmers use EP pellets as food fed instead of MP and fish trash, solid deposition could decrease by $57\%$. Also this study proposes that the cage facility ratio of the licensed area be decreased to less than $5\%$ to minimize the sediment pollution.

A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

A Study on the Attributes determining the Extent of Autonomy in Decision Making for Korean Subsidiaries of Multinational Corporations - Focused on Semiconductor Industry Related Companies - (다국적기업 한국자회사의 의사결정 자율성에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구 -반도체산업 관련기업체를 중심으로-)

  • Chung, Nak-Kyung;Kim, Hong
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.1-41
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    • 2008
  • The Korean semiconductor industry has made a great contribution to growth of Korean economy for the last decades by maintaining a top position in terms of Korean total annual export volume. However, the advanced semiconductor equipment and materials that are used for the production of semiconductor devices still depend on the suppliers from Europe, Japan, and America who have an influential position in the Korean semiconductor industry. The objective of this study is to empirically investigate the attributes determining the extent of autonomy in decision making for the Korean subsidiaries of multinational corporations in the semiconductor industry. This study found there were differences in the extent of autonomy in decision making in terms of the global strategies the multinational corporations pursue. This study surveyed employees at the Korean subsidiaries and joint venture companies of semiconductor multinational corporations and collected 726 survey questionnaires. Several statistical analyses including frequency analysis, reliability analysis, factor analysis, multiple regression analysis and ANOVA were performed using the collected sample data. Based on the analyses, this study found as follows: Firstly, from the factor analysis, this study found Korean subsidiaries faced three sources of uncertainties stemmed from political conditions, competent conditions, demand and supply conditions. The internal resources were characterized by the independencies of production capability, financial capability, marketing capability and human resource management capability. The operational performance was determined by total revenue, net profit and market share growth. Secondly, it was found the uncertainties from political condition and competent condition and the independencies of financial capability and marketing capability partially influenced the extent of autonomy in decision making. The independencies of production capability and human resource management capability significantly influenced the autonomy of decision making in the most areas. It was also found an increase of total revenue, net profit and market share growth partially affected the extent of autonomy in decision making of the Korean subsidiaries. Finally, it was found that the polycentrism of global management by multinational corporations seemed to bring a higher extent of autonomy in decision making than ethnocentrism or geocentrism of global management. Based on the results, this study provided managerial implications regarding the extent of autonomy in decision making for Korean subsidiaries of multinational corporations in order to help management to enhance their business capabilities.

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