• Title/Summary/Keyword: Ann(Artificial Neural Network)

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Improvement of multi layer perceptron performance using combination of gradient descent and harmony search for prediction of ground water level (지하수위 예측을 위한 경사하강법과 화음탐색법의 결합을 이용한 다층퍼셉트론 성능향상)

  • Lee, Won Jin;Lee, Eui Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.11
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    • pp.903-911
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    • 2022
  • Groundwater, one of the resources for supplying water, fluctuates in water level due to various natural factors. Recently, research has been conducted to predict fluctuations in groundwater levels using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Previously, among operators in ANN, Gradient Descent (GD)-based Optimizers were used as Optimizer that affect learning. GD-based Optimizers have disadvantages of initial correlation dependence and absence of solution comparison and storage structure. This study developed Gradient Descent combined with Harmony Search (GDHS), a new Optimizer that combined GD and Harmony Search (HS) to improve the shortcomings of GD-based Optimizers. To evaluate the performance of GDHS, groundwater level at Icheon Yullhyeon observation station were learned and predicted using Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP). Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were used to compare the performance of MLP using GD and GDHS. Comparing the learning results, GDHS had lower maximum, minimum, average and Standard Deviation (SD) of MSE than GD. Comparing the prediction results, GDHS was evaluated to have a lower error in all of the evaluation index than GD.

Data-driven Modeling for Valve Size and Type Prediction Using Machine Learning (머신 러닝을 이용한 밸브 사이즈 및 종류 예측 모델 개발)

  • Chanho Kim;Minshick Choi;Chonghyo Joo;A-Reum Lee;Yun Gun;Sungho Cho;Junghwan Kim
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.62 no.3
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    • pp.214-224
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    • 2024
  • Valves play an essential role in a chemical plant such as regulating fluid flow and pressure. Therefore, optimal selection of the valve size and type is essential task. Valve size and type have been selected based on theoretical formulas about calculating valve sizing coefficient (Cv). However, this approach has limitations such as requiring expert knowledge and consuming substantial time and costs. Herein, this study developed a model for predicting valve sizes and types using machine learning. We developed models using four algorithms: ANN, Random Forest, XGBoost, and Catboost and model performances were evaluated using NRMSE & R2 score for size prediction and F1 score for type prediction. Additionally, a case study was conducted to explore the impact of phases on valve selection, using four datasets: total fluids, liquids, gases, and steam. As a result of the study, for valve size prediction, total fluid, liquid, and gas dataset demonstrated the best performance with Catboost (Based on R2, total: 0.99216, liquid: 0.98602, gas: 0.99300. Based on NRMSE, total: 0.04072, liquid: 0.04886, gas: 0.03619) and steam dataset showed the best performance with RandomForest (R2: 0.99028, NRMSE: 0.03493). For valve type prediction, Catboost outperformed all datasets with the highest F1 scores (total: 0.95766, liquids: 0.96264, gases: 0.95770, steam: 1.0000). In Engineering Procurement Construction industry, the proposed fluid-specific machine learning-based model is expected to guide the selection of suitable valves based on given process conditions and facilitate faster decision-making.

A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

Development of a Freeway Travel Time Forecasting Model for Long Distance Section with Due Regard to Time-lag (시간처짐현상을 고려한 장거리구간 통행시간 예측 모형 개발)

  • 이의은;김정현
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2002
  • In this dissertation, We demonstrated the Travel Time forecasting model in the freeway of multi-section with regard of drives' attitude. Recently, the forecasted travel time that is furnished based on expected travel time data and advanced experiment isn't being able to reflect the time-lag phenomenon specially in case of long distance trip, so drivers don't believe any more forecasted travel time. And that's why the effects of ATIS(Advanced Traveler Information System) are reduced. Therefore, in this dissertation to forecast the travel time of the freeway of multi-section reflecting the time-lag phenomenon & the delay of tollgate, we used traffic volume data & TCS data that are collected by Korea Highway Cooperation. Also keep the data of mixed unusual to applicate real system. The applied model for forecasting is consisted of feed-forward structure which has three input units & two output units and the back-propagation is utilized as studying method. Furthermore, the optimal alternative was chosen through the twelve alternative ideas which is composed of the unit number of hidden-layer & repeating number which affect studying speed & forecasting capability. In order to compare the forecasting capability of developed ANN model. the algorithm which are currently used as an information source for freeway travel time. During the comparison with reference model, MSE, MARE, MAE & T-test were executed, as the result, the model which utilized the artificial neural network performed more superior forecasting capability among the comparison index. Moreover, the calculated through the particularity of data structure which was used in this experiment.

Effect of Change in Hydrological Environment by Climate Change on River Water Quality in Nam River Watershed (기후변화에 따른 남강유역의 수문환경의 변화가 하천수질에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Ji Yoon;Kim, Young Do;Kang, Boo Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.873-884
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    • 2013
  • In Korea, the rainfall is concentrated in summer under the influence of monsoon climate. Thus, even a small climate change can be significant problems in water resources. As a result, a lot of attention has been focused on climate changes and a number of researches have been conducted in a manner commensurate with the attention to the climate change. This study is intended to forecast the changes in the flow and water quality of the Nam river resulting from the future climate changes in the Nam river basin using a watershed and water quality model. An SWAT model, as a watershed hydrologic model, was established after estimating a climate scenario using an artificial neural network method, and the established model was verified and adjusted using date from the Ministry of Environment to evaluate the applicability of the model. As a consequence, $R^2$ showed more than 0.7 in the simulation test, which satisfies the minimum required level. Results from the SWAT model and the future Namgang dam discharge calculated by HEC-ResSIM is used as input date for QUALKO. The results showed a huge variation in BOD depending on the annual flow of the river, which recorded a maximum difference of 2 mg/L between a rainy season and a dry season. It can be deduced that because rainfall and the runoff of a basin significantly account for the water quality of a river, higher water concentrations are recorded in a dry season in which the flow is not as much as that in a rainy season. It also can be said that water should be reserved in advance to secure water in the Nam river downstream for a dry season and be controlled in an effective and efficient manner to provide better water quality.

Comparative analysis of water surface spectral characteristics based on hyperspectral images for chlorophyll-a estimation in Namyang estuarine reservoir and Baekje weir (남양호와 백제보의 Chlorophyll-a 산정을 위한 초분광 영상기반 수체분광특성 비교 분석)

  • Jang, Wonjin;Kim, Jinuk;Kim, Jinhwi;Nam, Guisook;Kang, Euetae;Park, Yongeun;Kim, Seongjoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.91-101
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    • 2023
  • In this study, we estimated the concentration of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) using hyperspectral water surface reflectance in an inland weir (Baekjae weir) and estuarine reservoir (Namyang Reservoir) for monitoring the occurrence of algae in freshwater in South Korea. The hyperspectral reflectance was measured by aircraft in Baekjae Weir (BJW) from 2016 to 2017, and a drone in Namyang Reservoir (NYR) from 2020 to 2021. The 30 reflectance bands (BJW: 400-530, 620-680, 710-730, 760-790 nm, NYR: 400-430, 655-680, 740-800 nm) that were highly related to Chl-a concentration were selected using permutation importance. Artificial neural network based Chl-a estimation model was developed using the selected reflectance in both water bodies. And the performance of the model was evaluated with the coefficient of determination (R2), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the mean absolute error (MAE). The performance evaluation results of the Chl-a estimation model for each watershed was R2: 0.63, 0.82, RMSE: 9.67, 6.99, and MAE: 11.25, 8.48, respectively. The developed Chl-a model of this study may be used as foundation tool for the optimal management of freshwater algal blooms in the future.