• Title/Summary/Keyword: Analytical Modeling

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A Method for Evaluating News Value based on Supply and Demand of Information Using Text Analysis (텍스트 분석을 활용한 정보의 수요 공급 기반 뉴스 가치 평가 방안)

  • Lee, Donghoon;Choi, Hochang;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.45-67
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    • 2016
  • Given the recent development of smart devices, users are producing, sharing, and acquiring a variety of information via the Internet and social network services (SNSs). Because users tend to use multiple media simultaneously according to their goals and preferences, domestic SNS users use around 2.09 media concurrently on average. Since the information provided by such media is usually textually represented, recent studies have been actively conducting textual analysis in order to understand users more deeply. Earlier studies using textual analysis focused on analyzing a document's contents without substantive consideration of the diverse characteristics of the source medium. However, current studies argue that analytical and interpretive approaches should be applied differently according to the characteristics of a document's source. Documents can be classified into the following types: informative documents for delivering information, expressive documents for expressing emotions and aesthetics, operational documents for inducing the recipient's behavior, and audiovisual media documents for supplementing the above three functions through images and music. Further, documents can be classified according to their contents, which comprise facts, concepts, procedures, principles, rules, stories, opinions, and descriptions. Documents have unique characteristics according to the source media by which they are distributed. In terms of newspapers, only highly trained people tend to write articles for public dissemination. In contrast, with SNSs, various types of users can freely write any message and such messages are distributed in an unpredictable way. Again, in the case of newspapers, each article exists independently and does not tend to have any relation to other articles. However, messages (original tweets) on Twitter, for example, are highly organized and regularly duplicated and repeated through replies and retweets. There have been many studies focusing on the different characteristics between newspapers and SNSs. However, it is difficult to find a study that focuses on the difference between the two media from the perspective of supply and demand. We can regard the articles of newspapers as a kind of information supply, whereas messages on various SNSs represent a demand for information. By investigating traditional newspapers and SNSs from the perspective of supply and demand of information, we can explore and explain the information dilemma more clearly. For example, there may be superfluous issues that are heavily reported in newspaper articles despite the fact that users seldom have much interest in these issues. Such overproduced information is not only a waste of media resources but also makes it difficult to find valuable, in-demand information. Further, some issues that are covered by only a few newspapers may be of high interest to SNS users. To alleviate the deleterious effects of information asymmetries, it is necessary to analyze the supply and demand of each information source and, accordingly, provide information flexibly. Such an approach would allow the value of information to be explored and approximated on the basis of the supply-demand balance. Conceptually, this is very similar to the price of goods or services being determined by the supply-demand relationship. Adopting this concept, media companies could focus on the production of highly in-demand issues that are in short supply. In this study, we selected Internet news sites and Twitter as representative media for investigating information supply and demand, respectively. We present the notion of News Value Index (NVI), which evaluates the value of news information in terms of the magnitude of Twitter messages associated with it. In addition, we visualize the change of information value over time using the NVI. We conducted an analysis using 387,014 news articles and 31,674,795 Twitter messages. The analysis results revealed interesting patterns: most issues show lower NVI than average of the whole issue, whereas a few issues show steadily higher NVI than the average.

Validation of the Proximity of Clothing to Self Scale for Older Persons (의복의 자아 근접성 척도 검증 - 노년층을 대상으로 -)

  • Lee, Young-A;Sontag, M. Suzanne
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.31 no.6 s.165
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    • pp.848-858
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    • 2007
  • Sontag and Lee (2004) recently developed an objectively measurable instrument, the Proximity of Clothing to Self(PCS) Scale, which measured the psychological closeness of clothing to self. They validated a 4-factor, 24-item PCS Scale for use with adolescents and identified the need for confirmation of the factor structure with other age groups. This paper extends the work of Sontag and Lee by employing the PCS Scale with older persons, age 65 and over, and reports the validation of a 3-factor, 19-item PCS Scale for older persons. A mail survey was sent to a national random sample of 1,700 older Persons by means of a list purchased from a U.S. survey sampling company in late November 2004. Total usuable number of respondents was 250 with an adjusted response rate of 15.6 percent. Three analytical rounds of confirmatory factor analysis(CFA) to test the construct validity of the PCS Scale were conducted by using AMOS 5.0(Analysis of Moment Structures), one of several structural equation modeling(SEM) programs. Completion of three rounds of the CFA resulted in a 3-factor, 19-item PCS Scale with demonstrated construct validity and reliability for older persons. The three PCS dimensions are clothing in relation to 1) self as structure-process(PCS Dimension 1-2-3 combined), 2) self-esteem-evaluative and affective processes(PCS Dimension 4-5 combined), and 3) body image and body cathexis(PCS Dimension 6). The initially hypothesized 6-factor scale(Sontag & Lee, 2004) was not confirmed for adolescents in their study nor with older persons in this study. In addition, the 4-factor solution for the adolescent group did not hold for older persons. It appears that the self-system of older persons is more integrated than may be true for younger individuals. Recommendations for future testing of construct validity of the PCS Scale are made.

A Meta Analysis of Using Structural Equation Model on the Korean MIS Research (국내 MIS 연구에서 구조방정식모형 활용에 관한 메타분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Ki;Jeon, Jin-Hwan
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.47-75
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    • 2009
  • Recently, researches on Management Information Systems (MIS) have laid out theoretical foundation and academic paradigms by introducing diverse theories, themes, and methodologies. Especially, academic paradigms of MIS encourage a user-friendly approach by developing the technologies from the users' perspectives, which reflects the existence of strong causal relationships between information systems and user's behavior. As in other areas in social science the use of structural equation modeling (SEM) has rapidly increased in recent years especially in the MIS area. The SEM technique is important because it provides powerful ways to address key IS research problems. It also has a unique ability to simultaneously examine a series of casual relationships while analyzing multiple independent and dependent variables all at the same time. In spite of providing many benefits to the MIS researchers, there are some potential pitfalls with the analytical technique. The research objective of this study is to provide some guidelines for an appropriate use of SEM based on the assessment of current practice of using SEM in the MIS research. This study focuses on several statistical issues related to the use of SEM in the MIS research. Selected articles are assessed in three parts through the meta analysis. The first part is related to the initial specification of theoretical model of interest. The second is about data screening prior to model estimation and testing. And the last part concerns estimation and testing of theoretical models based on empirical data. This study reviewed the use of SEM in 164 empirical research articles published in four major MIS journals in Korea (APJIS, ISR, JIS and JITAM) from 1991 to 2007. APJIS, ISR, JIS and JITAM accounted for 73, 17, 58, and 16 of the total number of applications, respectively. The number of published applications has been increased over time. LISREL was the most frequently used SEM software among MIS researchers (97 studies (59.15%)), followed by AMOS (45 studies (27.44%)). In the first part, regarding issues related to the initial specification of theoretical model of interest, all of the studies have used cross-sectional data. The studies that use cross-sectional data may be able to better explain their structural model as a set of relationships. Most of SEM studies, meanwhile, have employed. confirmatory-type analysis (146 articles (89%)). For the model specification issue about model formulation, 159 (96.9%) of the studies were the full structural equation model. For only 5 researches, SEM was used for the measurement model with a set of observed variables. The average sample size for all models was 365.41, with some models retaining a sample as small as 50 and as large as 500. The second part of the issue is related to data screening prior to model estimation and testing. Data screening is important for researchers particularly in defining how they deal with missing values. Overall, discussion of data screening was reported in 118 (71.95%) of the studies while there was no study discussing evidence of multivariate normality for the models. On the third part, issues related to the estimation and testing of theoretical models on empirical data, assessing model fit is one of most important issues because it provides adequate statistical power for research models. There were multiple fit indices used in the SEM applications. The test was reported in the most of studies (146 (89%)), whereas normed-test was reported less frequently (65 studies (39.64%)). It is important that normed- of 3 or lower is required for adequate model fit. The most popular model fit indices were GFI (109 (66.46%)), AGFI (84 (51.22%)), NFI (44 (47.56%)), RMR (42 (25.61%)), CFI (59 (35.98%)), RMSEA (62 (37.80)), and NNFI (48 (29.27%)). Regarding the test of construct validity, convergent validity has been examined in 109 studies (66.46%) and discriminant validity in 98 (59.76%). 81 studies (49.39%) have reported the average variance extracted (AVE). However, there was little discussion of direct (47 (28.66%)), indirect, and total effect in the SEM models. Based on these findings, we suggest general guidelines for the use of SEM and propose some recommendations on concerning issues of latent variables models, raw data, sample size, data screening, reporting parameter estimated, model fit statistics, multivariate normality, confirmatory factor analysis, reliabilities and the decomposition of effects.

International and domestic research trends in longitudinal connectivity evaluations of aquatic ecosystems, and the applicability analysis of fish-based models (수생태계 종적 연결성 평가를 위한 국내외 연구 현황 및 어류기반 종적 연속성 평가모델 적용성 분석)

  • Kim, Ji Yoon;Kim, Jai-Gu;Bae, Dae-Yeul;Kim, Hye-Jin;Kim, Jeong-Eun;Lee, Ho-Seong;Lim, Jun-Young;An, Kwang-Guk
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.634-649
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    • 2020
  • Recently, stream longitudinal connectivity has been a topic of investigation due to the frequent disconnections and the impact of aquatic ecosystems caused by the construction of small and medium-sized weirs and various artificial structures (fishways) directly influencing the stream ecosystem health. In this study, the international and domestic research trends of the longitudinal connectivity in aquatic ecosystems were evaluated and the applicability of fish-based longitudinal connectivity models used in developed countries was analyzed. For these purposes, we analyzed the current status of research on longitudinal connectivity and structural problems, fish monitoring methodology, monitoring approaches, longitudinal disconnectivity of fish movement, and biodiversity. In addition, we analyzed the current status and some technical limitations of physical habitat suitability evaluation, ecology-based water flow, eco-hydrological modeling for fish habitat connectivity, and the s/w program development for agent-based model. Numerous references, data, and various reports were examined to identify worldwide longitudinal stream connectivity evaluation models in European and non-European countries. The international approaches to longitudinal connectivity evaluations were categorized into five phases including 1) an approach integrating fish community and artificial structure surveys (two types input variables), 2) field monitoring approaches, 3) a stream geomorphological approach, 4) an artificial structure-based DB analytical approach, and 5) other approaches. the overall evaluation of survey methodologies and applicability for longitudinal stream connectivity suggested that the ICE model (Information sur la Continuite Ecologique) and the ICF model (Index de Connectivitat Fluvial), widely used in European countries, were appropriate for the application of longitudinal connectivity evaluations in Korean streams.

A Study on Commodity Asset Investment Model Based on Machine Learning Technique (기계학습을 활용한 상품자산 투자모델에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jin Ho;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.127-146
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    • 2017
  • Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.