• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
• /
• v.19 no.1
• /
• pp.37-46
• /
• 2009

The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced in May 2008 that U.S. retail e-commerce sales for 2006 reached $ 107 billion, up from $ 87 billion in 2005 - an increase of 22 percent. From 2001 to 2006, retail e-sales increased at an average annual growth rate of 25.4 percent. The explosive growth of E-Commerce has caused profound changes in marketing channel relationships and structures in many industries. Despite the great potential implications for both academicians and practitioners, there still exists a great deal of uncertainty about the impact of the Internet channel introduction on distribution channel management. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the ownership of the new Internet channel affects the existing channel members and consumers. To explore the above research questions, this study conducts well-controlled mathematical experiments to isolate the impact of the Internet channel by comparing before and after the Internet channel entry. The model consists of a monopolist manufacturer selling its product through a channel system including one independent physical store before the entry of an Internet store. The addition of the Internet store to this channel system results in a mixed channel comprised of two different types of channels. The new Internet store can be launched by the independent physical store such as Bestbuy. In this case, the physical retailer coordinates the two types of stores to maximize the joint profits from the two stores. The Internet store also can be introduced by an independent Internet retailer such as Amazon. In this case, a retail level competition occurs between the two types of stores. Although the manufacturer sells only one product, consumers view each product-outlet pair as a unique offering. Thus, the introduction of the Internet channel provides two product offerings for consumers. The channel structures analyzed in this study are illustrated in Fig.1. It is assumed that the manufacturer plays as a Stackelberg leader maximizing its own profits with the foresight of the independent retailer's optimal responses as typically assumed in previous analytical channel studies. As a Stackelberg follower, the independent physical retailer or independent Internet retailer maximizes its own profits, conditional on the manufacturer's wholesale price. The price competition between two the independent retailers is assumed to be a Bertrand Nash game. For simplicity, the marginal cost is set at zero, as typically assumed in this type of study. In order to explore the research questions above, this study develops a game theoretic model that possesses the following three key characteristics. First, the model explicitly captures the fact that an Internet channel and a physical store exist in two independent dimensions (one in physical space and the other in cyber space). This enables this model to demonstrate that the effect of adding an Internet store is different from that of adding another physical store. Second, the model reflects the fact that consumers are heterogeneous in their preferences for using a physical store and for using an Internet channel. Third, the model captures the vertical strategic interactions between an upstream manufacturer and a downstream retailer, making it possible to analyze the channel structure issues discussed in this paper. Although numerous previous models capture this vertical dimension of marketing channels, none simultaneously incorporates the three characteristics reflected in this model. The analysis results are summarized in Table 1. When the new Internet channel is introduced by the existing physical retailer and the retailer coordinates both types of stores to maximize the joint profits from the both stores, retail prices increase due to a combination of the coordination of the retail prices and the wider market coverage. The quantity sold does not significantly increase despite the wider market coverage, because the excessively high retail prices alleviate the market coverage effect to a degree. Interestingly, the coordinated total retail profits are lower than the combined retail profits of two competing independent retailers. This implies that when a physical retailer opens an Internet channel, the retailers could be better off managing the two channels separately rather than coordinating them, unless they have the foresight of the manufacturer's pricing behavior. It is also found that the introduction of an Internet channel affects the power balance of the channel. The retail competition is strong when an independent Internet store joins a channel with an independent physical retailer. This implies that each retailer in this structure has weak channel power. Due to intense retail competition, the manufacturer uses its channel power to increase its wholesale price to extract more profits from the total channel profit. However, the retailers cannot increase retail prices accordingly because of the intense retail level competition, leading to lower channel power. In this case, consumer welfare increases due to the wider market coverage and lower retail prices caused by the retail competition. The model employed for this study is not designed to capture all the characteristics of the Internet channel. The theoretical model in this study can also be applied for any stores that are not geographically constrained such as TV home shopping or catalog sales via mail. The reasons the model in this study is names as "Internet" are as follows: first, the most representative example of the stores that are not geographically constrained is the Internet. Second, catalog sales usually determine the target markets using the pre-specified mailing lists. In this aspect, the model used in this study is closer to the Internet than catalog sales. However, it would be a desirable future research direction to mathematically and theoretically distinguish the core differences among the stores that are not geographically constrained. The model is simplified by a set of assumptions to obtain mathematical traceability. First, this study assumes the price is the only strategic tool for competition. In the real world, however, various marketing variables can be used for competition. Therefore, a more realistic model can be designed if a model incorporates other various marketing variables such as service levels or operation costs. Second, this study assumes the market with one monopoly manufacturer. Therefore, the results from this study should be carefully interpreted considering this limitation. Future research could extend this limitation by introducing manufacturer level competition. Finally, some of the results are drawn from the assumption that the monopoly manufacturer is the Stackelberg leader. Although this is a standard assumption among game theoretic studies of this kind, we could gain deeper understanding and generalize our findings beyond this assumption if the model is analyzed by different game rules.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.174-189
• /
• 2015

The objective of this study was to reconstruct spatial information using the results of the investigation and evaluation of the health of the living organisms, habitat, and water quality at the investigation points for the aquatic ecosystem health of the Nakdong River basin, to support the rational decision making of the aquatic ecosystem preservation and restoration policies of the Nakdong River basin using spatial analysis techniques, and to present efficient management methods. To analyze the aquatic ecosystem health of the Nakdong River basin, punctiform data were constructed based on the position information of each point with the aquatic ecosystem health investigation and evaluation results of 250 investigation sections. To apply the spatial analysis technique, the data need to be reconstructed into areal data. For this purpose, spatial influence and trends were analyzed using the Kriging interpolation(ArcGIS 10.1, Geostatistical Analysis), and were reconstructed into areal data. To analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of the Nakdong River basin health based on these analytical results, hotspot(Getis-Ord Gi, $G^*_i$), LISA(Local Indicator of Spatial Association), and standard deviational ellipse analyses were used. The hotspot analysis results showed that the hotspot basins of the biotic indices(TDI, BMI, FAI) were the Andong Dam upstream, Wangpicheon, and the Imha Dam basin, and that the health grades of their biotic indices were good. The coldspot basins were Nakdong River Namhae, the Nakdong River mouth, and the Suyeong River basin. The LISA analysis results showed that the exceptional areas were Gahwacheon, the Hapcheon Dam, and the Yeong River upstream basin. These areas had high bio-health indices, but their surrounding basins were low and required management for aquatic ecosystem health. The hotspot basins of the physicochemical factor(BOD) were the Nakdong River downstream basin, Suyeong River, Hoeya River, and the Nakdong River Namhae basin, whereas the coldspot basins were the upstream basins of the Nakdong River tributaries, including Andong Dam, Imha Dam, and Yeong River. The hotspots of the habitat and riverside environment factor(HRI) were different from the hotspots and coldspots of each factor in the LISA analysis results. In general, the habitat and riverside environment of the Nakdong River mainstream and tributaries, including the Nakdong river upstream, Andong Dam, Imha Dam, and the Hapcheon Dam basin, had good health. The coldspot basins of the habitat and riverside environment also showed low health indices of the biotic indices and physicochemical factors, thus requiring management of the habitat and riverside environment. As a result of the time-series analysis with a standard deviation ellipsoid, the areas with good aquatic ecosystem health of the organisms, habitat, and riverside environment showed a tendency to move northward, and the BOD results showed different directions and concentrations by the year of investigation. These aquatic ecosystem health analysis results can provide not only the health management information for each investigation spot but also information for managing the aquatic ecosystem in the catchment unit for the working research staff as well as for the water environment researchers in the future, based on spatial information.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.13 no.1
• /
• pp.151-166
• /
• 1991

In this paper, a simple game-theoretic entry deterrence model is developed that integrates both limit pricing and predatory pricing. While there have been extensive studies which have dealt with predation and limit pricing separately, no study so far has analyzed these closely related practices in a unified framework. Treating each practice as if it were an independent phenomenon is, of course, an analytical necessity to abstract from complex realities. However, welfare analysis based on such a model may give misleading policy implications. By analyzing limit and predatory pricing within a single framework, this paper attempts to shed some light on the effects of interactions between these two frequently cited tactics of entry deterrence. Another distinctive feature of the paper is that limit and predatory pricing emerge, in equilibrium, as rational, profit maximizing strategies in the model. Until recently, the only conclusion from formal analyses of predatory pricing was that predation is unlikely to take place if every economic agent is assumed to be rational. This conclusion rests upon the argument that predation is costly; that is, it inflicts more losses upon the predator than upon the rival producer, and, therefore, is unlikely to succeed in driving out the rival, who understands that the price cutting, if it ever takes place, must be temporary. Recently several attempts have been made to overcome this modelling difficulty by Kreps and Wilson, Milgram and Roberts, Benoit, Fudenberg and Tirole, and Roberts. With the exception of Roberts, however, these studies, though successful in preserving the rationality of players, still share one serious weakness in that they resort to ad hoc, external constraints in order to generate profit maximizing predation. The present paper uses a highly stylized model of Cournot duopoly and derives the equilibrium predatory strategy without invoking external constraints except the assumption of asymmetrically distributed information. The underlying intuition behind the model can be summarized as follows. Imagine a firm that is considering entry into a monopolist's market but is uncertain about the incumbent firm's cost structure. If the monopolist has low cost, the rival would rather not enter because it would be difficult to compete with an efficient, low-cost firm. If the monopolist has high costs, however, the rival will definitely enter the market because it can make positive profits. In this situation, if the incumbent firm unwittingly produces its monopoly output, the entrant can infer the nature of the monopolist's cost by observing the monopolist's price. Knowing this, the high cost monopolist increases its output level up to what would have been produced by a low cost firm in an effort to conceal its cost condition. This constitutes limit pricing. The same logic applies when there is a rival competitor in the market. Producing a high cost duopoly output is self-revealing and thus to be avoided. Therefore, the firm chooses to produce the low cost duopoly output, consequently inflicting losses to the entrant or rival producer, thus acting in a predatory manner. The policy implications of the analysis are rather mixed. Contrary to the widely accepted hypothesis that predation is, at best, a negative sum game, and thus, a strategy that is unlikely to be played from the outset, this paper concludes that predation can be real occurence by showing that it can arise as an effective profit maximizing strategy. This conclusion alone may imply that the government can play a role in increasing the consumer welfare, say, by banning predation or limit pricing. However, the problem is that it is rather difficult to ascribe any welfare losses to these kinds of entry deterring practices. This difficulty arises from the fact that if the same practices have been adopted by a low cost firm, they could not be called entry-deterring. Moreover, the high cost incumbent in the model is doing exactly what the low cost firm would have done to keep the market to itself. All in all, this paper suggests that a government injunction of limit and predatory pricing should be applied with great care, evaluating each case on its own basis. Hasty generalization may work to the detriment, rather than the enhancement of consumer welfare.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.77 no.4
• /
• pp.429-444
• /
• 1988

Considering the recent trent toward the development of multiple-use of forest trees, investigations for comprehensive information on these young stands of Hinoki cypress are necessary for rational forest management. From this point of view, 83 sample trees were selected and cut down from 23-ear old stands of Hinoki cypress at Changsung-gun, Chonnam-do. Various stem growth factors of felled trees were measured and canonical correlaton analysis, principal component analysis and factor analysis were applied to investigate the stem growth characteristics, relationships among stem growth factors, and to get potential information and comprehensive information. The results are as follows ; Canonical correlation coefficient between stem volume and quality growth factor was 0.9877. Coefficient of canonical variates showed that DBH among diameter growth factors and height among height growth factors had important effects on stem volume. From the analysis of relationship between stem-volume and canonical variates, which were linearly combined DBH with height as one set, DBH had greater influence on volume growth than height. The 1st-2nd principal components here adopted to fit the effective value of 85% from the pincipal component analysis for 12 stem growth factors. The result showed that the 1st-2nd principal component had cumulative contribution rate of 88.10%. The 1st and the 2nd principal components were interpreted as "size factor" and "shape factor", respectively. From summed proportion of the efficient principal component fur each variate, information of variates except crown diameter, clear length and form height explained more than 87%. Two common factors were set by the eigen value obtained from SMC (squared multiple correlation) of diagonal elements of canonical matrix. There were 2 latent factors, $f_1$ and $f_2$. The former way interpreted as nature of diameter growth system. In inherent phenomenon of 12 growth factor, communalities except clear length and crown diameter had great explanatory poorer of 78.62-98.30%. Eighty three sample trees could he classified into 5 stem types as follows ; medium type within a radius of ${\pm}1$ standard deviation of factor scores, uniformity type in diameter and height growth in the 1st quadrant, slim type in the 2nd quadrant, dwarfish type in the 3rd quadrant, and fall-holed type in the 4 th quadrant.

• Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
• /
• v.41 no.3
• /
• pp.241-246
• /
• 2007

Purpose: $[^{11}C]6-OH-BTA-1$ ([N-methyl-$^{11}C$]2-(4'-methylaminophenyl)-6-hydroxybenzothiazole, 1), a -amyloid imaging agent for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease in PET, can be labeled with higher yield by a simple loop method. During the synthesis of $[^{11}C]1$, we found the formation of by-products in various solvents, e.g., methylethylketone (MEK), cyclohexanone (CHO), diethylketone (DEK), and dimethylformamide (DMF). Materials and Methods: In Automated radiosynthesis module, 1 mg of 4-aminophenyl-6-hydroxybenzothiazole (4) in 100 l of each solvent was reacted with $[^{11}C]methyl$ triflate in HPLC loop at room temperature (RT). The reaction mixture was separated by semi-preparative HPLC. Aliquots eluted at 14.4, 16.3 and 17.6 min were collected and analyzed by analytical HPLC and LC/MS spectrometer. Results: The labeling efficiencies of $[^{11}C]1$ were $86.0{\pm}5.5%$, $59.7{\pm}2.4%$, $29.9{\pm}1.8%$, and $7.6{\pm}0.5%$ in MEK, CHO, DEK and DMF, respectively. The LC/MS spectra of three products eluted at 14.4, 16.3 and 17.6 mins showed m/z peaks at 257.3 (M+1), 257.3 (M+1) and 271.3 (M+1), respectively, indicating their structures as 1, 2-(4'-aminophenyl)-6-methoxybenzothiazole (2) and by-product (3), respectively. Ratios of labeling efficiencies for the three products $([^{11}C]1:[^{11}C]2:[^{11}C]3)$ were $86.0{\pm}5.5%:5.0{\pm}3.4%:1.5{\pm}1.3%$ in MEK, $59.7{\pm}2.4%:4.7{\pm}3.2%:1.3{\pm}0.5%$ in CHO, $9.9{\pm}1.8%:2.0{\pm}0.7%:0.3{\pm}0.1%$ in DEK and $7.6{\pm}0.5%:0.0%:0.0%$ in DMF, respectively. Conclusion: The labeling efficiency of $[^{11}C]1$ was the highest when MEK was used as a reaction solvent. As results of mass spectrometry, 1 and 2 were conformed. 3 was presumed.

• The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.67-75
• /
• 2009

Purpose: As to the analytical method of data, the various programs in which it is used for the quantitative rating of the Tl-201 myocardial perfusion SPECT are reported that there is a difference. Therefore, the measured value error of the mutual program is expected to be generated even if the quantitative analysis is made against data of the same patient. Using quantitative index that able to represent myocardial perfusion defect level, we aimed to determine correlation among three myocardial perfusion analysis programs 4DM (4DMSPECT), QPS (Quantitative Perfusion SPECT), ECT (Emory Cardiac Toolbox) that be used generally in most departments of Nuclear Medicine. Materials and Methods: We analyzed the 145 patients who were examined by Tl-201 gated myocardial perfusion SPECT in department of nuclear medicine at Asan Mediacal Center from December 1th 2008 to February 14th 2008. We sorted as normal group and abnormal group. Normal group consist of 80 patients (Male/Female=38/42, age:$65.1{\pm}9.9$) who have low possibility of cardiovascular disease. And abnormal group consist of 65 patients (Male/Female=45/20, age:$63.0{\pm}8.7$) who were diagnosed cardiovascular disease with reversible perfusion defect or fixed perfusion defect through myocardial perfusion SPECT results. Using the 4DM, QPS, and ECT programs, the total defect extent (TDE) such as LAD, LCX, RCA and the summed stress score (SSS) have been analysed for their correlations and statistical comparison with the paried t-test for the quantitative indices analysed from each group. Results: The correlation of 4DM:QPS, QPS:ECT, ECT:4DM each group result from 145 patients is 0.84, 0.86, 0.82 at SSS, 0.87, 0.84, 0.87 at TDE, and both index showed good correlation. In paired t-test and Bland-Altman analysis results showed no statistically significant difference in the comparison of QPS:ECT at the mean SSS and TDE, 4DM:QPS, ECT:4DM comparative analysis results showed statistically significant difference at SSS and TDE index. The correlation of 4DM:QPS, QPS:ECT, ECT:4DM program results from abnormal group (65 patients) is 0.72, 0.72, 0.70 at SSS and 0.77, 0.70, 0.77 at TDE and TDE and SSS has a good correlation. In abnormal group, paired t-test and Bland-Altman analysis results showed no statistically significant difference at QPS:ECT SSS (p=0.89) and TDE (p=0.23) comparison, 4DM:QPS, ECT:4DM comparative analysis results showed statistically significant difference at SSS and TDE index (p<0.01). In normal group (80 patients), paired t-test and Bland-Altman analysis results showed no statistically significant difference at QPS:ECT SSS (p=0.95) and TDE (p=0.73) comparison. And 4DM:QPS, ECT:4DM comparative analysis results showed statistically significant difference at SSS and TDE index (p<0.01). Conclusions: The perfusion defect of the Tl-201 myocardial perfusion SPECT was analyzed in not only the patient in whom it has the cardiovascular disease but also the patient in whom the possibility of the cardiovascular disease is few. In the comparison of the all group research, the mean of the TDE and SSS, 4DM was lower than QPS and ECT progrms. Each program showed good correlation and the results showed statistically significant difference. However, in this way, it is determined to be compatible about the analysis value in which the large-scale side between the programs uses each program a difference in a clinical in the Bland-Altman analyzed result in spite of the good correlation and cannot use. but, this analyzed result will be able to be usefully used as the reference material for the clinical read and is expected.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.4 no.2
• /
• pp.45-53
• /
• 1984

This study was conducted to investigate characteristics of nonpoint pollutant discharges and concentrations in runoff from the urban and agricultural areas in Korea. The analytical parameters used for this study were COD, BOD and SS. This study was conducted during the period from May to August 1981. Nonpoint pollutant mass loadings from the urban area were influenced by the rainfall intensity and the duration of rainfall, and etc. The concentrations of pollutants in the first flush was higher as the discharges increased. It was, however, found that the concentrations of pollutants in the heavy storm runoff were decreased due to the dilution effect. When other rainfall followed a peak rainfall, the concentrations of pollutants were lower than expected, because the first flush conveyed the most of pollutants deposited on the combined sewers. However the concentrations were increased in proportion to the increased flow when a rainfall of higher intensity than the first flush was continued. Yearly area yield rates in kg/ha were estimated to be 690.5(489.9~1,328) of COD, 319.7(226.8~614.8) of BOD, and 831.2(589.7~1,598) of SS. Pollutant sources in agricultural area were of the domestic waste water, manure composting stack, and agricultural solid wastes and etc. In the paddy field, yearly area yield rates in kg/ha were estimated to be 623.4(21.7~114) of COD, 18.65(9.53~34.5) of BOD, and 91.9(46.3~171.8) of SS. In the crop land, however, yearly rates in kg/ha were estimated to be 91.9(46.3~171.8) of COD, 23.09(11.7~42.5) of BOD, and 23.09(11.4~43.4) of SS. Pollutant sources in the feedlot area were originating from the feces of cattle, the cleaning water, the wastes spilled from manure composting stack during rain. Yearly area yield rate in kg/ha was estimated to be 3.804(2,489~6,658) of COD, 2.047(464~2,900) of BOD, and 1.149 (729~1,442) of SS. Pollutant discharges in the forest area were resulted from the organic layer like leaves and others deposited on the surface. Yearly area yield rate in kg/ha was estimated to be 9.86(5.45~18.56) of COD, 3.48(1.67~7.54) of BOD, and 4.64(9.74~10.35) of SS.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
• /
• v.6 no.1
• /
• pp.65-72
• /
• 2013

In this study, the early suicide prevention program was applied to the elementary school students and compared the prior & post effect of the program, and verified the status of psychology change like emotional status, or temptation to take a suicide, and presented the possibility as a suicide prevention program. The period of adolescence is the very unstable period in the process of growth being cognitively immature, emotionally impulsive period. It is the period emotionally unstable and unpredictable possible to select the method of suicide as an extreme method to escape the reality, or impulsive problem solving against small conflict or dispute situation. Many stress of the student such as recent nuclear family, expectation of parents to their children, education problem, socio-environmental elements, individual psychological factor lead students to the extreme activity of suicide in recent days. In this study, the scope of stress experienced in the elementary school as well as idea and degree of temptation regarding suicide by the suicide prevention program were identified, and through prevention program such as meditation training, breath training and through experience of anger control, emotion-expression, self overcome and establish positive self-identity and make understanding Self-control, Self-esteem & preciousness of life based on which the effect to suicide prevention was analyzed. The study was made targeting 51 students of 2 classes of 6th grade of elementary school of Goyang-si and processed 30 minutes every morning focused on through experience & activity of the principle & method of brain science. The data was collected for 20 times before starting morning class by using Suicide Probability Scale(herein SPS-A) designed to predict effectively suicide Probability, suicide risk prediction scale, surveyed by 7 areas such as Positive outlook, Within the family closeness, Impulsivity, Interpersonal hostility, Hopelessness, Hopelessness syndrome, suicide accident. Analytical methods and validation was used the Wilcoxon's signed rank test using SPSS Program. Though the process of program in short period, but there was a effective and positive results in the 7 areas in the average comparison. But in the t-test result, there was a different outcome. It indicated changes in the 3 questionnaires (No.7, No.14, No.19) out of 31 SPS-A questionnaires, and there was a no change to the rest item. It also indicated more changes of the students in the class A than class B. And in case of the class A students, psychological changes were verified in the areas of Hopelessness syndrome, suicide accident among 7 areas after the program was processed. Through this study, it could be verified that different results could be derived depending on the Student tendency, program professional(teacher in charge, processing lecturer). The suicide prevention program presented in this article can be a help in learning and suicide prevention with consistent systematization, activation through emotion and impulse control based on emotional stress relief and positive self-identity recovery, stabilization of brain waves, and let the short period program not to be died out but to be continued connecting from childhood to adolescence capable to make surrounding environment for spiritual, physical healthy growth for which this could be an effective program for suicide prevention of the social problem.

• The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
• /
• v.13 no.1
• /
• pp.77-81
• /
• 2009

Purpose: The PET of the PET/CT (Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography) quantitatively shows the biological and chemical information of the body, but has limitation of presenting the clear anatomic structure. Thus combining the PET with CT, it is not only possible to offer the higher resolution but also effectively shorten the scanning time and reduce the noises by using CT data in attenuation correction. And because, at the CT scanning, the contrast media makes it easy to determine a exact range of the lesion and distinguish the normal organs, there is a certain increase in the use of it. However, in the case of using the contrast media, it affects semi-quantitative measures of the PET/CT images. In this study, therefore, we will be to establish the reliability of the SUV (Standardized Uptake Value) with CT data correction so that it can help more accurate diagnosis. Materials and Methods: In this experiment, a total of 30 people are targeted - age range: from 27 to 72, average age : 49.6 - and DSTe (General Electric Healthcare, Milwaukee, MI, USA) is used for equipment. $^{18}F$- FDG 370~555 MBq is injected into the subjects depending on their weight and, after about 60 minutes of their stable position, a whole-body scan is taken. The CT scan is set to 140 kV and 210 mA, and the injected amount of the contrast media is 2 cc per 1 kg of the patients' weight. With the raw data from the scan, we obtain a image showing the effect of the contrast media through the attenuation correction by both of the corrected and uncorrected CT data. Then we mark out ROI (Region of Interest) in each area to measure SUV and analyze the difference. Results: According to the analysis, the SUV is decreased in the liver and heart which have more bloodstream than the others, because of the contrast media correction. On the other hand, there is no difference in the lungs. Conclusions: Whereas the CT scan images with the contrast media from the PET/CT increase the contrast of the targeted region for the test so that it can improve efficiency of diagnosis, there occurred an increase of SUV, a semi-quantitative analytical method. In this research, we measure the variation of SUV through the correction of the influence of contrast media and compare the differences. As we revise the SUV which is increasing in the image with attenuation correction by using contrast media, we can expect anatomical images of high-resolution. Furthermore, it is considered that through this trusted semi-quantitative method, it will definitely enhance the diagnostic value.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.23 no.4
• /
• pp.127-146
• /
• 2017

Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.