• Title/Summary/Keyword: Analysis of Trend Using Time Series

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The Analysis of 2001 Land Use Distribution of Daejeon Metropolitan City based on KOMPSAT-1 EOC Imagery (KOMPSAT-1 EOC 자료를 활용한 2001년도 대전시 토지이용 현황의 공간적 분포 분석)

  • Kim, Youn-Soo;Jeon, Gap-Ho;Lee, Kwang-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2004
  • The dissemination of commercial satellite images. which have the high spatial resolution such as aerial photos, are the active trend in remote sensing community because of the recent development in satellite and sensor technology. Such high resolution satellite images provide a unique tool for the monitoring of ongoing urban land use change. Especially KOMPSAT-1, which was launched at December 1999 and successfully operated up to now, provides repeatedly panchromatic images over Korean peninsula, which has the spatial resolution of 6.6m. Based upon this KOMPSAT-1 EOC image data we can try to analyze and assess the temporal urban land use change, which could not be done because lack of such data. The aim of this paper is to analyze and assess the spatial land use characteristics of Daejeon Metropolitan City based on KOMPSAT-1 EOC data. The land use map of year 2001 is generated through the modification of the year 2000 land use map, which is published by National Geographic Information Institute, using visual interpretation of KOMPSAT-1 EOC image which is acquired in year 2001. This study can be the start point of the time series analysis of the long term land use change monitoring mit KOMPSAT-1 EOC data.

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Topic Modeling-Based Domestic and Foreign Public Data Research Trends Comparative Analysis (토픽 모델링 기반의 국내외 공공데이터 연구 동향 비교 분석)

  • Park, Dae-Yeong;Kim, Deok-Hyeon;Kim, Keun-Wook
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2021
  • With the recent 4th Industrial Revolution, the growth and value of big data are continuously increasing, and the government is also actively making efforts to open and utilize public data. However, the situation still does not reach the level of demand for public data use by citizens, At this point, it is necessary to identify research trends in the public data field and seek directions for development. In this study, in order to understand the research trends related to public data, the analysis was performed using topic modeling, which is mainly used in text mining techniques. To this end, we collected papers containing keywords of 'Public data' among domestic and foreign research papers (1,437 domestically, 9,607 overseas) and performed topic modeling based on the LDA algorithm, and compared domestic and foreign public data research trends. After analysis, policy implications were presented. Looking at the time series by topic, research in the fields of 'personal information protection', 'public data management', and 'urban environment' has increased in Korea. Overseas, it was confirmed that research in the fields of 'urban policy', 'cell biology', 'deep learning', and 'cloud·security' is active.

Bias Correction for GCM Long-term Prediction using Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (비정상성 분위사상법을 이용한 GCM 장기예측 편차보정)

  • Moon, Soojin;Kim, Jungjoong;Kang, Boosik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.833-842
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    • 2013
  • The quantile mapping is utilized to reproduce reliable GCM(Global Climate Model) data by correct systematic biases included in the original data set. This scheme, in general, projects the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the underlying data set into the target CDF assuming that parameters of target distribution function is stationary. Therefore, the application of stationary quantile mapping for nonstationary long-term time series data of future precipitation scenario computed by GCM can show biased projection. In this research the Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (NSQM) scheme was suggested for bias correction of nonstationary long-term time series data. The proposed scheme uses the statistical parameters with nonstationary long-term trends. The Gamma distribution was assumed for the object and target probability distribution. As the climate change scenario, the 20C3M(baseline scenario) and SRES A2 scenario (projection scenario) of CGCM3.1/T63 model from CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis) were utilized. The precipitation data were collected from 10 rain gauge stations in the Han-river basin. In order to consider seasonal characteristics, the study was performed separately for the flood (June~October) and nonflood (November~May) seasons. The periods for baseline and projection scenario were set as 1973~2000 and 2011~2100, respectively. This study evaluated the performance of NSQM by experimenting various ways of setting parameters of target distribution. The projection scenarios were shown for 3 different periods of FF scenario (Foreseeable Future Scenario, 2011~2040 yr), MF scenario (Mid-term Future Scenario, 2041~2070 yr), LF scenario (Long-term Future Scenario, 2071~2100 yr). The trend test for the annual precipitation projection using NSQM shows 330.1 mm (25.2%), 564.5 mm (43.1%), and 634.3 mm (48.5%) increase for FF, MF, and LF scenarios, respectively. The application of stationary scheme shows overestimated projection for FF scenario and underestimated projection for LF scenario. This problem could be improved by applying nonstationary quantile mapping.

Pattern Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature Distribution in the Southeast Sea of Korea Using a Weighted Mean Center (가중공간중심을 활용한 한국 남동해역의 표층수온 분포 패턴 분석)

  • KIM, Bum-Kyu;YOON, Hong-Joo;KIM, Tae-Hoon;CHOI, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.263-274
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    • 2020
  • In the Southeast Sea of Korea, a cold water mass is formed intensively in summer every year, causing frequent abnormal sea conditions. In order to analyze the spatial changes of sea surface temperature distribution in this area, ocean fields buoy data observed at Gori and Jeongja and reanalyzed sea surface temperature(SST) data from GHRSST Level 4 were used from June to September 2018. The buoy data were used to analyze the time-series water temperature changes at two stations, and the GHRSST data were used to calculate the daily SST variance and weighted mean center(WMC) across the study area. When the buoy's water temperature was lowered, the variance of SST in the study area trend to increase, but it did not appear consistently for the entire period. This is because GHRSST is a reanalysis data that does not reflect sensitive changes in water temperature along the coast. As such, there is a limit to grasping the local small-scale water temperature change in the coast or detecting the location and extent of the cold water zone only by the statistical variance representing the SST change in the entire sea area. Therefore, as a result of using WMC to quantitatively determine the spatial location of the cold water mass, when the cold water zone occurred, WMC was located in the northwest sea area from the mean center(MC) of the study area. This means that it is possible to quantitatively identify where and to what extent the distribution of cold surface water temperature appears through SST's WMC location information, and we could see the possibility of WMC's use in detecting the scale of cold water zones and the extent of regional spread in the future.

Research Trends in Korean Healing Facilities and Healing Programs Using LDA Topic Modeling (LDA 토픽모델링을 활용한 국내 치유시설과 치유프로그램 연구 동향)

  • Lee, Ju-Hong;Lee, Kyung-Jin;Sung, Jung-Han
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2023
  • Korean healing research has developed over the past 20 years along with the growing social interest in healing. The field of healing research is diverse and includes legislated natural-based healing. In this study, abstracts of 2,202 academic journals, master's, and doctoral dissertations published in KCI and RISS were collected and analyzed. As for the research method, LDA topic modeling used to classify research topics, and time-series publication trends were examined. As a result of the study, it identified that the topic of Korean healing research was connected with 5 types and 4 mediators. The five were "Healing Tourism," "Mind and Art Healing," "Forest Therapy," "Healing Space," and "Youth Restoration and Healing," and the four mediators were "Forest," "Nature," "Culture", and "Education". In addition, only legalized healing studies extracted from Korean healing research and the topics were analyzed. As a result, legalized healing research classified into four. The four types were "Healing Spatial Environment Plan", "Healing Therapy Experiment", "Agricultural Education Experiential Healing", and "Healing Tourism Factor". Forest Therapy, which has the largest amount of research in legalized healing, Agro Healing and Garden Healing which operate similar programs through plants, and Marine Healing using marine resources also analyzed. As a result, topics that show the unique characteristics of individual healing studies and topics that are considered universal in all healing studies derived. This study is significant in that it identified the overall trend of research on Korean healing facilities and programs by utilizing LDA topic modeling.

Comparing Monthly Precipitation Predictions Using Time Series Analysis with Deep Learning Models (시계열 분석 및 딥러닝 모형을 활용한 월 강수량 예측 비교)

  • Chung, Yeon-Ji;Kim, Min-Ki;Um, Myoung-Jin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.443-463
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    • 2024
  • This study sought to improve the accuracy of precipitation prediction by utilizing monthly precipitation data for each region over the past 30 years. Using statistical models (ARIMA, SARIMA) and deep learning models (LSTM, GBM), we learned monthly precipitation data from 1983 to 2012 in Gangneung, Gwangju, Daegu, Daejeon, Busan, Seoul, Jeju, and Chuncheon. Based on this, monthly precipitation was predicted for 10 years from 2013 to 2022. As a result of the prediction, most models accurately predicted the precipitation trend, but showed a tendency to underpredict the actual precipitation. To solve these problems, appropriate models were selected for each region and season. The LSTM model showed suitable results in Gangneung, Gwangju, Daegu, Daejeon, Busan, Seoul, Jeju, and Chuncheon. When comparing forecasting power by season, the SARIMA model showed particularly suitable forecasting performance in winter in Gangneung, Gwangju, Daegu, Daejeon, Seoul, and Chuncheon. Additionally, the LSTM model showed higher performance than other models in the summer when precipitation is concentrated. In conclusion, closely analyzing regional and seasonal precipitation patterns and selecting the optimal prediction model based on this plays a critical role in increasing the accuracy of precipitation prediction.

Analysis of Changes in Pine Forests According to Natural Forest Dynamics Using Time-series NFI Data (시계열 국가산림자원조사 자료 기반 자연적 임분동태 변화에 따른 소나무림의 감소 특성 평가)

  • Eun-Sook Kim;Jong Bin Jung;Sinyoung Park
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.113 no.1
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    • pp.40-50
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    • 2024
  • Pine forests are continuously declining due to competition with broadleaf trees, such as oaks, as a consequence of changes in the natural dynamics of forest ecosystem. This natural decline creates a risk of losing the various benefits pine trees have provided to people in the past. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare future forest management directions by considering the state of pine tree decline in each region. The goal of this study is to understand the characteristics of pine forest changes according to forest dynamics and to predict future regional changes. For this purpose, we evaluated the trend of change in pine forests and extracted various variables(topography, forest stand type, disturbance, and climate) that affect the change, using time-series National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Also, using selected key variables, a model was developed to predict future changes in pine forests. As a results, it showed that the importance of pine trees in forests across the country has decreased overall over the past 10 years. Also, 75% of the sample points representing pine trees remained unchanged, while the remaining 25% had changed to mixed forests. It was found that these changes mainly occurred in areas with good moisture conditions or disturbance factors inside and outside the forest. In the next 10 years, approximately 14.2% of current pine forests was predicted to convert to mixed forests due to changes in natural forest dynamics. Regionally, the rate of pine forest change was highest in Jeju(42.8%) and Gyeonggi(26.9%) and lowest in Gyeongbuk(8.8%) and Gangwon(13.8%). It was predicted that pine forests would be at a high risk of decline in western areas of the Korean Peninsula, including Gyeonggi, Chungcheong, and Jeonnam. This results can be used to make a management plan for pine forests throughout the country.

Geographical Impact on the Annual Maximum Rainfall in Korean Peninsula and Determination of the Optimal Probability Density Function (우리나라 연최대강우량의 지형학적 특성 및 이에 근거한 최적확률밀도함수의 산정)

  • Nam, Yoon Su;Kim, Dongkyun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.251-263
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    • 2015
  • This study suggested a novel approach of estimating the optimal probability density function (OPDF) of the annual maximum rainfall time series (AMRT) combining the L-moment ratio diagram and the geographical information system. This study also reported several interesting geographical characteristics of the AMRT in Korea. To achieve this purpose, this study determined the OPDF of the AMRT with the duration of 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hours using the method of L-moment ratio diagram for each of the 67 rain gages in Korea. Then, a map with the Thiessen polygons of the 67 rain gages colored differently according the different type of the OPDF, was produced to analyze the spatial trend of the OPDF. In addition, this study produced the color maps which show the fitness of a given probability density function to represent the AMRT. The study found that (1) both L-skewness and L-kurtosis of the AMRT have clear geographical trends, which means that the extreme rainfall events are highly influenced by geography; (2) the impact of the altitude on these two rainfall statistics is greater for the mountaneous region than for the non-mountaneous region. In the mountaneous region, the areas with higher altitude are more likely to experience the less-frequent and strong rainfall events than the areas with lower altitude; (3) The most representative OPDFs of Korea except for the Southern edge are Generalized Extreme Value distribution and the Generalized Logistic distribution. The AMRT of southern edge of Korea was best represented by the Generalized Pareto distribution.

The Characteristics of Submarine Groundwater Discharge in the Coastal Area of Nakdong River Basin (낙동강 유역의 연안 해저지하수 유출특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Daesun;Jung, Hahn Chul
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.6_1
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    • pp.1589-1597
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    • 2021
  • Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in coastal areas is gaining importance as a major transport route that bring nutrients and trace metals into the ocean. This paper describes the analysis of the seasonal changes and spatiotemporal characteristicsthrough the modeling monthly SGD for 35 years from 1986 to 2020 for the Nakdong river basin. In this study, we extracted 210 watersheds and SGD estimation points using the SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) DEM (Digital Elevation Model). The average annual SGD of the Nakdong River basin was estimated to be 466.7 m2/yr from the FLDAS (Famine Early Warning Systems Network Land Data Assimilation System) recharge data of 10 km which is the highest resolution global model applicable to Korea. There was no significant time-series variation of SGD in the Nakdong river basin, but the concentrated period of SGD was expanded from summer to autumn. In addition, it was confirmed that there is a large amount of SGD regardless of the season in coastal area nearby large rivers, and the trend has slightly increased since the 1980s. The characteristics are considered to be related to the change in the major precipitation period in the study area, and spatially it is due to the high baseflow-groundwater in the vicinity of large rivers. This study is a precedentstudy that presents a modeling technique to explore the characteristics of SGD in Korea, and is expected to be useful as foundational information for coastal management and evaluating the impact of SGD to the ocean.

A Study on derivation of drought severity-duration-frequency curve through a non-stationary frequency analysis (비정상성 가뭄빈도 해석 기법에 따른 가뭄 심도-지속기간-재현기간 곡선 유도에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Minsu;Park, Seo-Yeon;Jang, Ho-Won;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.107-119
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzed past drought characteristics based on the observed rainfall data and performed a long-term outlook for future extreme droughts using Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) used duration of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, a meteorological drought index, was applied for quantitative drought analysis. A single long-term time series was constructed by combining daily rainfall observation data and RCP scenario. The constructed data was used as SPI input factors for each different duration. For the analysis of meteorological drought observed relatively long-term since 1954 in Korea, 12 rainfall stations were selected and applied 10 general circulation models (GCM) at the same point. In order to analyze drought characteristics according to climate change, trend analysis and clustering were performed. For non-stationary frequency analysis using sampling technique, we adopted the technique DEMC that combines Bayesian-based differential evolution ("DE") and Markov chain Monte Carlo ("MCMC"). A non-stationary drought frequency analysis was used to derive Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves for the 12 locations. A quantitative outlook for future droughts was carried out by deriving SDF curves with long-term hydrologic data assuming non-stationarity, and by quantitatively identifying potential drought risks. As a result of performing cluster analysis to identify the spatial characteristics, it was analyzed that there is a high risk of drought in the future in Jeonju, Gwangju, Yeosun, Mokpo, and Chupyeongryeong except Jeju corresponding to Zone 1-2, 2, and 3-2. They could be efficiently utilized in future drought management policies.