• Title/Summary/Keyword: Analysis of Trend Using Time Series

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Independent Component Analysis of Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temperature and Summer Seasonal Rainfall (Nino3.4지역 SST 및 여름강수량의 독립성분분석)

  • Kwon Hyun-Han;Moon Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.12 s.161
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    • pp.985-994
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    • 2005
  • We examined problems of the principal component analysis(PCA), which is able to analyze at the low dimensionality as a methodologv to assess hydrologic time series, and introduced the theory and characteristics of independent component analysis(ICA) that can supplement problems of principal component analysis. We also applied the global sea surface temperature(SST) of the Nino region and assessed the correlation between El $\tilde{n}ino$-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and SST. The results of examining separation-ability of principal components using mixed signals indicate that the independent component analysis is statistically superior compared to that of the principal component analysis. Finally, we assessed correlation between ENSO and global anomaly SST. The independent component analysis was applied to the $5^{\circ}{\times}5^{\circ}$(latitude and longitude) global anomaly SST in the Nino+3.4 region that is the El $\tilde{n}ino$ observation section. We assessed the correlation with the ENSO years. These results of the analysis show that only one independent component($86\%$) was able to represent the entire behavior and was consistent with the main ENSO years. Finally, we carried out independent component analysis for summer seasonal rainfalls at nine stations and could extract ICs to reflect geographical characteristics. The increasing trend has been shown at IC-1 and IC-2 since 1970s.

Twitter Issue Tracking System by Topic Modeling Techniques (토픽 모델링을 이용한 트위터 이슈 트래킹 시스템)

  • Bae, Jung-Hwan;Han, Nam-Gi;Song, Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.109-122
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    • 2014
  • People are nowadays creating a tremendous amount of data on Social Network Service (SNS). In particular, the incorporation of SNS into mobile devices has resulted in massive amounts of data generation, thereby greatly influencing society. This is an unmatched phenomenon in history, and now we live in the Age of Big Data. SNS Data is defined as a condition of Big Data where the amount of data (volume), data input and output speeds (velocity), and the variety of data types (variety) are satisfied. If someone intends to discover the trend of an issue in SNS Big Data, this information can be used as a new important source for the creation of new values because this information covers the whole of society. In this study, a Twitter Issue Tracking System (TITS) is designed and established to meet the needs of analyzing SNS Big Data. TITS extracts issues from Twitter texts and visualizes them on the web. The proposed system provides the following four functions: (1) Provide the topic keyword set that corresponds to daily ranking; (2) Visualize the daily time series graph of a topic for the duration of a month; (3) Provide the importance of a topic through a treemap based on the score system and frequency; (4) Visualize the daily time-series graph of keywords by searching the keyword; The present study analyzes the Big Data generated by SNS in real time. SNS Big Data analysis requires various natural language processing techniques, including the removal of stop words, and noun extraction for processing various unrefined forms of unstructured data. In addition, such analysis requires the latest big data technology to process rapidly a large amount of real-time data, such as the Hadoop distributed system or NoSQL, which is an alternative to relational database. We built TITS based on Hadoop to optimize the processing of big data because Hadoop is designed to scale up from single node computing to thousands of machines. Furthermore, we use MongoDB, which is classified as a NoSQL database. In addition, MongoDB is an open source platform, document-oriented database that provides high performance, high availability, and automatic scaling. Unlike existing relational database, there are no schema or tables with MongoDB, and its most important goal is that of data accessibility and data processing performance. In the Age of Big Data, the visualization of Big Data is more attractive to the Big Data community because it helps analysts to examine such data easily and clearly. Therefore, TITS uses the d3.js library as a visualization tool. This library is designed for the purpose of creating Data Driven Documents that bind document object model (DOM) and any data; the interaction between data is easy and useful for managing real-time data stream with smooth animation. In addition, TITS uses a bootstrap made of pre-configured plug-in style sheets and JavaScript libraries to build a web system. The TITS Graphical User Interface (GUI) is designed using these libraries, and it is capable of detecting issues on Twitter in an easy and intuitive manner. The proposed work demonstrates the superiority of our issue detection techniques by matching detected issues with corresponding online news articles. The contributions of the present study are threefold. First, we suggest an alternative approach to real-time big data analysis, which has become an extremely important issue. Second, we apply a topic modeling technique that is used in various research areas, including Library and Information Science (LIS). Based on this, we can confirm the utility of storytelling and time series analysis. Third, we develop a web-based system, and make the system available for the real-time discovery of topics. The present study conducted experiments with nearly 150 million tweets in Korea during March 2013.

Evaluation of Water Quality Characteristics in the Nakdong River using Statistical Analysis (통계분석을 이용한 낙동강유역의 수질변화 특성 조사)

  • Choi, Kil Yong;Im, Toe Hyo;Lee, Jae Woon;Cheon, Se Uk
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.11
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    • pp.1157-1168
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    • 2012
  • In this study, we assess changes in water quality trends over time based on certain control measurements in order to identify and analyze the cause of the trend in water quality. The current water pollution in the Nakdong River was analyzed, as it suggests that the significant changes in water quality have occurred in between 2006 and 2010. Based on monthly average data, we have examined for trends of the Nakdong River watershed in water temperature, Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Total Nitrogen (TN), and Total Phosphorus (TP). Moreover, we have investigated seasonal variation of water quality of sites within the Nakdong River Basin by implementing further analyses such as, Correlation Coefficient, Regression Analysis, Hierarchical Clustering Method, and Time Series Analysis on SPSS. Geology and topography of the watershed, controlled by various conditions such as, climate, vegetation, topography, soil, and rain medium, have been affected by the non-homogeneity. Our study suggests that such variables could possibly cause eutrophication problems in the river. One possible way to overcome this particular problem is to lay up a ship on the river by increasing the nasal flow measurement of the Nakdong River during rainy season. Moreover, the water management requires arranging the measurement of the flow in order to secure the river while the numerous construction projects need to be continuously observed. However, the water is not flowing tributary of the reason for the timing to be flowing in a natural state of river water and industrial water intake because agriculture. Therefore, ongoing research is needed in addition to configuration of all observations.

A Study on the Optimum-Path for Traffic of Road Using GIS (GIS를 이용한 도로교통(道路交通)의 최적경로(最適經路) 선정(選定)에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Myoung-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.5 no.2 s.10
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    • pp.131-144
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    • 1997
  • Traffic jam densified day by day is phenomenon to occur lack of the road capacity in comparison with traffic density, but lack of the road cannot be concluded by main cause of traffic ism. Because the central function of a city would be concentrated upon the downtown and traffic demand would not be evenly distributed by the classification of an hour. Therefore, this study based on the fact that each driver will select the route generating traffic delay very low when path choice from origin to destination in travel plan estimating the quality of passage could be maintained the speed he want will approach to a characteristic grasp of a road, traffic, driver changing every moment by traffic-demand of road increased as a geometrical series with analysis a classification of a street, a intersection along the path on traffic density and highway capacity analysis the path using GIS techniques about complex street network, also will get the path of actual optimum for traffic delay trend creating under various condition the classification per a hour, a day of week and an incident through network such as analysis for traffic generation zone adjacent about street, intersection, afterward will expect the result increasing efficiency of the road-use through a good distribution of traffic by optimum-path choice, accordingly will prepare the scientific, objective, appropriate basis to decide the reasonable time of a road-widen and expansion through section analysis along a rate of traffic volume vs. road capacity.

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Construction of Consumer Confidence index based on Sentiment analysis using News articles (뉴스기사를 이용한 소비자의 경기심리지수 생성)

  • Song, Minchae;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2017
  • It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.

A Study on People Counting in Public Metro Service using Hybrid CNN-LSTM Algorithm (Hybrid CNN-LSTM 알고리즘을 활용한 도시철도 내 피플 카운팅 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Hye;Kim, Min-Seung;Lee, Chan-Ho;Choi, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Jeong-Hee;Sung, Tae-Eung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 2020
  • In line with the trend of industrial innovation, IoT technology utilized in a variety of fields is emerging as a key element in creation of new business models and the provision of user-friendly services through the combination of big data. The accumulated data from devices with the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is being used in many ways to build a convenience-based smart system as it can provide customized intelligent systems through user environment and pattern analysis. Recently, it has been applied to innovation in the public domain and has been using it for smart city and smart transportation, such as solving traffic and crime problems using CCTV. In particular, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the easiness of securing real-time service data and the stability of security when planning underground services or establishing movement amount control information system to enhance citizens' or commuters' convenience in circumstances with the congestion of public transportation such as subways, urban railways, etc. However, previous studies that utilize image data have limitations in reducing the performance of object detection under private issue and abnormal conditions. The IoT device-based sensor data used in this study is free from private issue because it does not require identification for individuals, and can be effectively utilized to build intelligent public services for unspecified people. Especially, sensor data stored by the IoT device need not be identified to an individual, and can be effectively utilized for constructing intelligent public services for many and unspecified people as data free form private issue. We utilize the IoT-based infrared sensor devices for an intelligent pedestrian tracking system in metro service which many people use on a daily basis and temperature data measured by sensors are therein transmitted in real time. The experimental environment for collecting data detected in real time from sensors was established for the equally-spaced midpoints of 4×4 upper parts in the ceiling of subway entrances where the actual movement amount of passengers is high, and it measured the temperature change for objects entering and leaving the detection spots. The measured data have gone through a preprocessing in which the reference values for 16 different areas are set and the difference values between the temperatures in 16 distinct areas and their reference values per unit of time are calculated. This corresponds to the methodology that maximizes movement within the detection area. In addition, the size of the data was increased by 10 times in order to more sensitively reflect the difference in temperature by area. For example, if the temperature data collected from the sensor at a given time were 28.5℃, the data analysis was conducted by changing the value to 285. As above, the data collected from sensors have the characteristics of time series data and image data with 4×4 resolution. Reflecting the characteristics of the measured, preprocessed data, we finally propose a hybrid algorithm that combines CNN in superior performance for image classification and LSTM, especially suitable for analyzing time series data, as referred to CNN-LSTM (Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). In the study, the CNN-LSTM algorithm is used to predict the number of passing persons in one of 4×4 detection areas. We verified the validation of the proposed model by taking performance comparison with other artificial intelligence algorithms such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and RNN-LSTM (Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). As a result of the experiment, proposed CNN-LSTM hybrid model compared to MLP, LSTM and RNN-LSTM has the best predictive performance. By utilizing the proposed devices and models, it is expected various metro services will be provided with no illegal issue about the personal information such as real-time monitoring of public transport facilities and emergency situation response services on the basis of congestion. However, the data have been collected by selecting one side of the entrances as the subject of analysis, and the data collected for a short period of time have been applied to the prediction. There exists the limitation that the verification of application in other environments needs to be carried out. In the future, it is expected that more reliability will be provided for the proposed model if experimental data is sufficiently collected in various environments or if learning data is further configured by measuring data in other sensors.

Correlation Analysis between Terra/Aqua MODIS LST and Air Temperature: Mainly on the Occurrence Period of Heat and Cold Waves (Terra/Aqua MODIS LST와 기온과의 상관성 분석: 한파 및 폭염 발생 기간을 중심으로)

  • CHUNG, Jee-Hun;LEE, Yong-Gwan;LEE, Ji-Wan;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.197-214
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the correlation analysis was conducted between observed air temperature (maximum, minimum, and mean air temperature) and the daytime and nighttime data of Terra/Aqua MODIS LST(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Land Surface Temperature) for 86 weather stations. All the data of the recent 11 years from 2008 to 2018 were prepared with daily base. In particular, the characteristics of the cold and heat waves incidence period in 2018 were analyzed. The correlation analysis was performed using the Pearson correlation coefficient(R) and root mean square error(RMSE). As a result of time series analysis, the trend between observed air temperature and MODIS LST were similar, showing the correlation above 0.9 in maximum temperature, above 0.8 in mean and minimum temperature. Especially, the maximum temperature was found to have the highest accuracy with Terra MODIS LST daytime, and the minimum temperature had the highest correlation with Terra MODIS LST nighttime. During the cold wave period, both Terra and Aqua MODIS LST showed higher correlations with nighttime data than daytime data. For the heat wave period, the Aqua MODIS LST daytime data was good, but the overall R was below 0.5. Additional analysis is necessary for further study considering such as land cover and elevation characteristics.

Analysis on the Snow Cover Variations at Mt. Kilimanjaro Using Landsat Satellite Images (Landsat 위성영상을 이용한 킬리만자로 만년설 변화 분석)

  • Park, Sung-Hwan;Lee, Moung-Jin;Jung, Hyung-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.409-420
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    • 2012
  • Since the Industrial Revolution, CO2 levels have been increasing with climate change. In this study, Analyze time-series changes in snow cover quantitatively and predict the vanishing point of snow cover statistically using remote sensing. The study area is Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. 23 image data of Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-7 ETM+, spanning the 27 years from June 1984 to July 2011, were acquired. For this study, first, atmospheric correction was performed on each image using the COST atmospheric correction model. Second, the snow cover area was extracted using the NDSI (Normalized Difference Snow Index) algorithm. Third, the minimum height of snow cover was determined using SRTM DEM. Finally, the vanishing point of snow cover was predicted using the trend line of a linear function. Analysis was divided using a total of 23 images and 17 images during the dry season. Results show that snow cover area decreased by approximately $6.47km^2$ from $9.01km^2$ to $2.54km^2$, equivalent to a 73% reduction. The minimum height of snow cover increased by approximately 290 m, from 4,603 m to 4,893 m. Using the trend line result shows that the snow cover area decreased by approximately $0.342km^2$ in the dry season and $0.421km^2$ overall each year. In contrast, the annual increase in the minimum height of snow cover was approximately 9.848 m in the dry season and 11.251 m overall. Based on this analysis of vanishing point, there will be no snow cover 2020 at 95% confidence interval. This study can be used to monitor global climate change by providing the change in snow cover area and reference data when studying this area or similar areas in future research.

The Assessment of Trophic State and the Importance of Benthic Boundary Layer in the Southern Coast of Korea (한국남부 연안의 영양상태 평가와 저층 경계면의 중요성)

  • 이재성;김기현;김성수;정래홍;박종수;최우정;김귀영;이필용;이영식
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.179-195
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    • 2004
  • The trophic state of the coastal waters of the southern part of Korea was assessed using biogeochemical data obtained from the National Marine Environmental Monitoring Program conducted by the National Fisheries Research and Development Institute for six years. The trophic state of different areas, analyzed by non-metric multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) analysis, could divide the areas into three groups. Masan Bay, with suboxic water masses and/or the highest concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus occurred, was assessed as being in a hypertrophic state. Ulsan Bay, Onsan Bay, Busan and Jinhae Bay, located near strong point sources, were in a eutrophic state. Other areas, including Tongyong, Yosu, Mokpo and Jeju island, were evaluated as being in a mesotrophic state. During 1997 to 2002, the average values of excess nitrogen, which is the difference between the measured dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and the corrected DIN using the Redfield ratio, were positive at Ulsan, Onsan, and Busan, where there were inflows from polluted rivers. In contrast, those were negative values in Haengam Bay, Gwangyang Bay and nearby Yosu. This suggests that the limiting element for phytoplankton growth differed among sites. The time series data of excess nitrogen showed gradual decrease over time in the hypertrophic waters, but the opposite trend in the mesotrophic waters. This indicated that the ratio of nitrogen to phosphate varied according to the trophic state of the coastal waters. The enrichment of organic matter in sediment in eutrophic waters would disturb the normal pattern of biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and phosphate. In order to assess the condition of the coastal environment, the benthic boundary layer should be considered.

Patent trend analysis research in magnetization hexagon water producing technology (자화육각수 제조기술의 특허 동향분석 연구)

  • Lim, Sang-Ho;Lee, Sang-Goo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.2327-2331
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    • 2011
  • The present paper relates to an analysis into patent applications by most exemplary patent-filing countries using time series analysis for a patented technology in which washing water in a water purifier is changed to magnetization hexagon water beneficial to human body, particularly the patented technology being to a magnetization hexagon water producing technology in which a magnetizer is mounted at an inlet pipe into which washing water is introduced to a water purifier, whereby the washing water is changed into magnetization hexagon water that is beneficial to human body for hygienic maintenance and use of bidet and toilet. In view of patent application trends in magnetization hexagon water producing technology fields, it can be easily noted from the analysis that a large portion of patent applications for the magnetization hexagon water producing technology comes from Korea and Japan, while USA and European countries are decreasing the number of patent applications and applicants. Therefore, there is a constant need of continuously observing the patent-filing trends in Korea and Japan in light of protection of patent rights in businesses that utilize the magnetization hexagon water. In view of the fact that many researches on and developments of products related to magnetization hexagon water are expected in the future, relevant producers and research institutes may effectively utilize the present paper in industrialization and patent research of the magnetization hexagon water.