• 제목/요약/키워드: Allocation of Risk

검색결과 186건 처리시간 0.031초

허리 불안정성이 있는 허리통증 환자에게 실시한 자가-복합 운동프로그램이 통증과 기능, 심리사회적, 균형 능력 그리고 배가로근에 미치는 효과 (Effect of Self-Complex Exercise Program on Pain, Function, Psychosocial, Balance Ability, and TrA Muscle in Patients with Lumbar Instability: A Randomized Controlled Trial)

  • 윤종혁;정대근;박삼호
    • 대한통합의학회지
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.73-83
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    • 2022
  • Purpose : Low back pain (LBP) is reported as a risk of experiencing musculoskeletal disorders due to muscle stiffness and hypokinetics. The lumbar spine in an unstable state causes imbalance and lumbar instability. Therefore, This study examined the effects of lumbar stabilization exercise and self-complex exercise program on pain, function, psychosocial level, static balance ability, and transverse abdominal muscle (TrA) thickness and contraction ratio in patients with lumbar instability. Methods : The design of this is a randomized controlled trial (RCT). Twenty-six LBP patients participated in this study. Screening tests were performed and assigned to the experimental group (n=13) and control group (n=13) using a random allocation program. Both groups underwent a lumbar stabilization exercise program. In addition, the experimental group implemented the self-complex exercise program. All interventions were applied three times per week for four weeks. The quadruple visual analog (QVAS), the Korean version of the Oswestry disability index (K-ODI), Korean version of fear-avoidance belief questionnaire (FABQ), static balance ability, TrA thickness, and contraction ratio were compared to evaluate the effect on intervention. Statistical significance was set at 𝛼=.05. Results : Both groups showed significant differences before and after the intervention in QVAS, K-ODI, FABQ, static balance ability, and TrA thickness in contraction (p<.05). In addition, significant differences in K-ODI and FABQ were observed between the experimental group and control group (p<.05). Conclusion : A lumbar stabilization exercise and self-complex exercise program resulted in reduced dysfunctions, psychosocial stability in patients with lumbar instability. Therefore, Lumbar stabilization exercise and self-complex exercise program for patients with lumbar instability are effective method with clinical significance in improving the function and psychosocial stability.

격자형 압력 센서 배치 구조를 이용한 다층 기반 누운 자세 판별 알고리즘 (A Multi-tier Based Lying Posture Discrimination Algorithm Using Lattice Type Pressure Sensors Allocation)

  • 조민재;홍윤식
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제20권6호
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    • pp.402-409
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    • 2019
  • 치매 환자나 혼자 힘으로 전혀 움직이지 못하는 노인 환자는 간병 인력 부족으로 낙상 사고 및 욕창 발생 가능성이 매우 크다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 일정 주기마다 감지한 압력 세기를 기준으로 머리, 어깨, 엉덩이 등 주요 신체 부위를 판별하여 환자의 누운 자세를 판별할 수 있는 알고리즘을 제안한다. 신체적 특성에 무관하게 신체 부위 판별이 가능하도록 격자 구조로 압력 센서를 배치한 스마트 매트를 제작하였다. 스마트 매트는 $7{\times}7$ 배열 크기의 2개 모듈을 조합하여 구성하였다. 각 모듈은 모두 49개의 FSR-406 센서로 구성되며 독립적으로 압력을 감지한다. 각 모듈에 대해 필터를 사용한 누적 압력 합 등 압력 분포를 이용해 상체 또는 하체에 해당하는 신체 부위를 순차적으로 판별한다. 제안한 알고리즘은 머리, 어깨, 엉덩이 부위 등 계층-1에 속한 신체 부위간 포함 관계를 조사해 5가지 누운 자세를 판별할 수 있다.

주식시장국면 예측과 투자전략에 대한 연구 (A Study on Stock Market Cycle and Investment Strategies)

  • 손경우;정지영
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.45-59
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study investigates the performance of investment strategies incorporating estimated stock market cycle based on a lead-lag relationship between business cycle and stock market cycle, thereby deriving empirical implications on risk management. Design/methodology/approach - The data period ranges from June 1953 to September 2022 and de-trended short rate, term spread, credit spread, stock market volatility are considered as major input variables to estimate business cycle and stock market cycle by applying probit model. Based on the estimated stock market cycle, two types of strategies are constructed and their performance relative to the benchmark is empirically examined. Findings Two types of strategies based on stock market cycle are considered: The first strategy is to long(short) on stocks when stock market stage is expected to be an expansion(a recession), and the second one is to long on stocks(bonds) when expecting an expansion(a recession). The empirical results show that the strategies based on stock market cycle outperforms a simple buy and hold strategy in both in-sample and out-of-sample investigation. Also the out-of-sample evidence suggests that the second strategy which is in line with asset allocation is more profitable than the first one. Research implications or Originality The strategies considered in this study are based on the estimated stock market cycle which only depends on a few easily available financial variables, thereby making easier to establish such a strategy. It implies that investors enhance investment performance by constructing a relatively simple trading strategies if they set their position on stocks or choose which asset class to buy conditioning on stock market cycle.

동아시아 주식시장의 상관관계와 변동성 분석 - 한국·일본·중국·홍콩·대만을 중심으로 (Volatility & Correlation Analysis of the East Asian Stock Market - Focusing on Korea·Japan·China·Hong Kong·Taiwan)

  • 최정일
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제17권5호
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    • pp.165-173
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구의 목적은 한국 주식시장과 인접한 동아시아 주식시장과의 상관관계와 변동성을 분석하는데 있다. 동아시아 주식시장은 한국과 지리적으로 경제적으로 가까운 일본과 중국, 홍콩, 대만을 선정하였다. 한국과 동아시아 주식시장간 상관관계와 변동성을 파악한다면 투자 예측에 도움이 될 수도 있다. 또한 글로벌 포트폴리오 차원에서 자산배분의 투자위험을 감소할 수도 있다. 이를 위해 지난 163개월 동안의 국가별 월별 수익률 자료를 이용하여 상승률과 상관계수, 회귀분석 등을 산출하고 비교 분석하였다. 상관관계를 분석한 결과 한국은 대만이나 홍콩과 높은 상관관계를 보인 반면 중국과는 낮은 상관관계를 보여주었다. 중국은 홍콩을 제외하고 다른 국가와 낮은 상관관계를 보여 동아시아에서 독자적인 시장을 형성하고 있었다. 홍콩은 동아시아 주식시장 내 다른 국가와 동행성이 가장 높은 시장으로 판단되어 홍콩시장이 동아시아 주식시장의 방향성을 제시할 수도 있다.

Spatial Inequalities in the Incidence of Colorectal Cancer and Associated Factors in the Neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran: Bayesian Spatial Models

  • Mansori, Kamyar;Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud;Mosavi-Jarrahi, Alireza;Motlagh, Ali Ganbary;Salehi, Masoud;Delavari, Alireza;Asadi-Lari, Mohsen
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제51권1호
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the factors associated with the spatial distribution of the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the neighborhoods of Tehran, Iran using Bayesian spatial models. Methods: This ecological study was implemented in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Socioeconomic variables, risk factors, and health costs were extracted from the Equity Assessment Study conducted in Tehran. The data on CRC incidence were extracted from the Iranian population-based cancer registry. The $Besag-York-Molli{\acute{e}}$ (BYM) model was used to identify factors associated with the spatial distribution of CRC incidence. The software programs OpenBUGS version 3.2.3, ArcGIS 10.3, and GeoDa were used for the analysis. Results: The Moran index was statistically significant for all the variables studied (p<0.05). The BYM model showed that having a women head of household (median standardized incidence ratio [SIR], 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 2.53), living in a rental house (median SIR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.96), not consuming milk daily (median SIR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.94) and having greater household health expenditures (median SIR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.68) were associated with a statistically significant elevation in the SIR of CRC. The median (interquartile range) and mean (standard deviation) values of the SIR of CRC, with the inclusion of all the variables studied in the model, were 0.57 (1.01) and 1.05 (1.31), respectively. Conclusions: Inequality was found in the spatial distribution of CRC incidence in Tehran on the neighborhood level. Paying attention to this inequality and the factors associated with it may be useful for resource allocation and developing preventive strategies in at-risk areas.

베트남 산악지역에서의 국가의 간섭과 흐몽족의 대응 - 베트남 북중부의 프론티어 마을을 사례로 - (The Hmong Response to State Intervention in Vietnam's Upland: A case study of a remote hamlet in North Central Vietnam)

  • 레 곡 퍼엉 쿠이;김두철
    • 한국경제지리학회지
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.119-138
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    • 2018
  • 베트남의 소수민족 중 하나인 흐몽족은 전통적으로 험준한 고산지역에 거주하며, 이동식 화전농업으로 생계를 유지하면서 강력한 혈연집단을 형성하여 왔다. 또한 혈연적 유대감에 기초한 흐몽족의 관습적 거버넌스는 그들의 문화와 생활양식을 유지하기 위한 중요한 요소로 기능하였으나, 국립공원 설치를 위한 법적 조치와 국가에 의한 정당화는 이들의 자원에 대한 이용과 권리를 크게 침해하는 것이었다. 이 논문에서는 자연보호를 위한 국립공원의 설치에 따라 지역자원에 대한 관습적 이용이 제한된 흐몽족을 사례로, 이러한 국가의 간섭을 어떻게 비켜가며 Scott (1976)가 언급한 '도덕적 경제공동체(Moral Economy)'을 어떻게 현실화하며, 자신들의 생활에 미치는 영향을 최소화하는지를 고찰한다. 분석 결과, 타인호와성(省) 푸후(Pu Hu)국립공원의 설치에 따라 마을 이전을 강요당한 흐몽족은 '생존을 위한 윤리의식 (subsistence ethic)'을 공유하는 다른 소수민족과의 관계 및 흐몽족 내부의 관습적 거버넌스를 일종의 '위기회피(risk-averter)' 기제로 구사하면서 국가의 간섭을 교묘하게 비켜가면서 강제적인 마을 이전과 자원이용에 대한 제약이라는 위기를 극복하였다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 이러한 본 연구의 성과는 소수민족의 내재적 다양성과 관습을 무시한 국가의 간섭을 재고할 것을 촉구하는 동시에, 주로 소수민족의 마을 내부관계에 국한하여 분석한 기존의 도덕적 경제공동체론의 한계를 극복하여 동남아시아 소수민족연구의 지평을 소수민족간의 공조관계까지 확대하였다고 볼 수 있다.

최적포트폴리오 기법을 이용한 개방형 전산 환경의 안정성 확보에 관한 연구 (Minimizing the Risk of an Open Computing Environment Using the MAD Portfolio Optimization)

  • 김학진;박지현
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.15-31
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    • 2009
  • 차세대 전산환경은 사용자들이 필요한 전산자원을 네트워크를 통해 공급받는 그리드 컴퓨팅 기반의 개방형 전산환경으로 진화할 것으로 예상된다. 개방형 전산환경의 도입은 전산자원 활용의 효율성을 높이고 협업을 증진시키며 공급의 유연성과 비용 절감 등의 효과를 가져올 수 있다. 그러나 네트워크를 통해 공급되는 특성으로 인해 개방형 전산 자원의 성능에는 변동성이 수반된다. 전산자원의 성능에 변동성이 있는 경우, 주어진 예산과 시간만 고려하여 전산자원 서비스를 구성하는 단순 최적화 방법을 사용했을 때는 서비스의 최종 성능과 실행 시간 등을 규정한 서비스 수준계약(Service Level Agreement, SLA)을 만족시키지 못할 위험이 높다. 따라서 개방형 전산환경의 서비스 브로커는 전산자원 공급의 안정성을 높이기 위해서 서비스를 구성하는 개별 전산자원의 성능 변동성을 고려하여 위험을 최소화 하는전산자원포트폴리오를구성할것이요구된다. 본연구에서는평균절대편차(Mean-Absolute Deviation, MAD) 포트폴리오 최적화 기법을 이용하여 서비스 브로커의 공급 안정성을 향상시키는 방법을 제시하였다. 제시된 최적화 기법의 효과를 알아보기 위한 방법으로 가상의 개방형 전산환경을 모델링하고, 고객의 제약 조건과 개방형 전산환경의 변동성 정도에 따라 전산자원 공급 서비스의 성공률을 시뮬레이션 하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과로서, 첫째, 단순 최적화방법보다 변동성을 감안한 MAD 포트폴리오 최적화 기법을 이용했을 때 공급의 안정성이 뛰어난 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 둘째로는 특히 개별 전산자원의 변동성 예측의 정확성이 높아질수록 성능도 더욱 향상되는 결과를 가져왔다. 셋째, 측정된 변동성을 이용하여 개방형 전산자원의 가격을 할인하는 정책을 추진할 경우 서비스 공급 범위의 확대에도 효과가 클 것으로 예상되었다.

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조현병 환자군과 일반 인구군간 출생일간(出生日干)의 음양오행적 특성 비교: 통섭(統攝)적 측면에서의 접근 (Yin-Yang and Five-Element Characteristics of Day Master on Four Time Pillars of Birth in Korean Population with Schizophrenia: A Consilience-Based Holistic Approach)

  • 황태영;이지은;이금단;유영수
    • 동의신경정신과학회지
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    • 제34권2호
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    • pp.71-82
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: The existing reductionist approach has not reached complete understanding of the cause of schizophrenia. The objective of this study was to investigate yin-yang and five-element characteristics reflected on four time pillars of birth of patients with schizophrenia through comparison with the general population in the perspective of consilience-based holistic approach. Methods: This study was conducted using a random sequential recruitment method for the general population and individuals with schizophrenia aged 18 to 64 based on the exact date and time of birth using structured questionnaires. Relative positional relations of yin-yang and five-element with day master were primarily examined. In addition, the strength of day master with a score range of 0~100 points was assessed through operational score allocation. Results: Of 591 participants, 576 (346: general population, 230: individuals with schizophrenia) were analyzed. Between-group analyses showed no significant difference in the distribution of types of day master (χ2=10.41, df=9, p=0.318). However, significant between-group differences were shown in the distribution of the strength of day master (t=2.14, p=0.032) and frequency of restraining month branch (χ2=5.23, df=1, p=0.022). In logistic regression analysis, 10-point increase on the strength of day master decreased the probability of onset of schizophrenia over the age of 30 by 29.6% (p=0.002; 95% confidence interval, 0.566~0.876). Conclusions: Findings in this study suggest that four time pillars of birth might be associated with schizophrenia through yin-yang and five-element theory and synchronicity principle, implicating the plausibility of consilience-based holistic approach in the determination of risk factors or cause of schizophrenia.

Statistical Estimates from Black Non-Hispanic Female Breast Cancer Data

  • Khan, Hafiz Mohammad Rafiqullah;Ibrahimou, Boubakari;Saxena, Anshul;Gabbidon, Kemesha;Abdool-Ghany, Faheema;Ramamoorthy, Venkataraghavan;Ullah, Duff;Stewart, Tiffanie Shauna-Jeanne
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권19호
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    • pp.8371-8376
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    • 2014
  • Background: The use of statistical methods has become an imperative tool in breast cancer survival data analysis. The purpose of this study was to develop the best statistical probability model using the Bayesian method to predict future survival times for the black non-Hispanic female breast cancer patients diagnosed during 1973-2009 in the U.S. Materials and Methods: We used a stratified random sample of black non-Hispanic female breast cancer patient data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional regression methods. Four advanced types of statistical models, Exponentiated Exponential (EE), Beta Generalized Exponential (BGE), Exponentiated Weibull (EW), and Beta Inverse Weibull (BIW) were utilized for data analysis. The statistical model building criteria, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) were used to measure the goodness of fit tests. Furthermore, we used the Bayesian approach to obtain the predictive survival inferences from the best-fit data based on the exponentiated Weibull model. Results: We identified the highest number of black non-Hispanic female breast cancer patients in Michigan and the lowest in Hawaii. The mean (SD), of age at diagnosis (years) was 58.3 (14.43). The mean (SD), of survival time (months) for black non-Hispanic females was 66.8 (30.20). Non-Hispanic blacks had a significantly increased risk of death compared to Black Hispanics (Hazard ratio: 1.96, 95%CI: 1.51-2.54). Compared to other statistical probability models, we found that the exponentiated Weibull model better fits for the survival times. By making use of the Bayesian method predictive inferences for future survival times were obtained. Conclusions: These findings will be of great significance in determining appropriate treatment plans and health-care cost allocation. Furthermore, the same approach should contribute to build future predictive models for any health related diseases.

Development Process of Agriculture And Technology -A Case Study of Korea

  • Gajendra-Singh;Ahn, Duck-Hyun
    • 한국농업기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국농업기계학회 1993년도 Proceedings of International Conference for Agricultural Machinery and Process Engineering
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    • pp.109-118
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    • 1993
  • Development process of agricultural technology has been studied with a case study of Korean agriculture. Technological is considered as a transformer of inputs into outputs and hence technological appropriateness, an important aspect of agricultural development strategies, is considered as a dynamic concepts. Considering the concept of agricultural system as a delivery system for providing essential materials and services to producers and consumers, it has been divided into two major groups of dimensions vis. external challenge dimensions and internal response dimensions. Market, investment and agro-ecosystem constitute the external challenge dimensions : whereas trade , technology as well as production and resources allocation constitute internal response dimensions. The system manager is responsible for maintaining equilibrium in the mentioned six sub-systems. Two kinds of alternatives paths of technological development viz. land saving technology and labour saving technolog have been studied. Technology is considered as a combination of four basic components viz. facilities, abilities, facts and frameworks. Adoption of innovation in agriculture depends on profitability, awareness, risk aversion, financial capacity, institutional infrastructure, availability of physical inputs and adaptability to the local conditions. For a cast study of Korea, changes in the agricultural system through external challenge dimensions are investigated. The impacts of industrialization on agro-ecosystem reported are shift of labour from the agricultural sector to non-agricultural sectors and continuously increasing demand of farm the agricultural sector to non-agricultural sectors accompanied by increase in land prices. The impacts on the commodity market discussed are shift in demand from rice, barley and other cereals to meat , dairy products and vegetables : and increasing in supply capacity of agricultural inputs. The process of agricultural development from 1962 to 19 1 9 (i.e. from start of the first to the end of the sixth five year plan) are also discussed in details with several policy measures taken. The trend of agricultural income and productivity are also analyzed. The main cause of increase in the agricultural income is considered as increase in labour productivity. The study revealed that during the span of 1965-88, holding size has not changed significantly, but both the land and labour productivity increased and so did the agricultural income. R&D activities in Korea have changed over time in three stages vix. import of improved technology, localization by adaptive research and technological mastery. For the new technology to be made affordable to farmers, policy measures like fertilizer and food grain exchange system, dual price system in rice and barely and loan for machinery were strengthened.

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