• 농업과학연구
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• 제38권3호
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• pp.571-581
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• 2011

This study develops a mid-term preceding observation model of radish to complement an existing short-term agricultural observation model. The first purpose of the study is to extend a three seasonal classification(spring, summer, fall) of fruit-vegetables to a four seasonal classification that involves the winter additionally. This allows us to verify the reason for demand and supply unbalance and unstable price of radish. The second purpose is to construct a mid-term preceding observation model that would be used to forecast planted areas, output, monthly shipment and price. To achieve these purposes, several multiple regression models are estimated. A system is consisted of a planted areas equation, a yield equation, monthly shipment distribution equation, and monthly price equation. To calculate output an auxiliary equation is involved in the system and the consumer price index etc are considered as exogenous variables.

• Journal of Platform Technology
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.62-70
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• 2023

이 논문은 농수산물 생산자가 도매시장에 상품을 출하하는 시기와 양을 결정하는 것을 돕기 위한 시스템을 구축하기 위한 일련의 과정 중 일부이다. 기존 농수산물 출하모델에서 사용하지 않은 품질변화효과를 모델링하고, 그 통계적 유의성을 확인한 후, 시스템에 도입하는 것이 이 연구의 목적이다. 이를 위해 연구자는 품질변화효과를 측정할 수 있는 네 가지 모델을 개발하였다. 시간이 지남에 따라 1) 품질이 일정하게 떨어지는 경우, 2) 품질이 처음에 급속히 떨어지다가 나중에는 천천히 떨어지는 경우, 3) 품질이 처음에 천천히 떨어지다가 나중에는 급속히 떨어지는 경우, 4) 품질이 낮았다가 시간이 흐른 후 높아지다가 다시 감소하는 경우를 모델링하였다. 각 모델의 품질변화효과가 출하량에 미지는 영향을 2014-2021년 사이에 가락도매시장에서 거래된 사과를 대상으로 실증분석 해 본 결과에 따르면 네 모델 모두 품질변화효과에 유의성을 발견하였다. 그리고 네 모델 간 설명력에 유의한 차이는 없었다. 따라서 네 개 모델 중 어느 하나를 선택해서 사과에 대한 출하시기의사결정시스템에 적용시킬 수 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• 스마트미디어저널
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.9-17
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• 2024

본 연구는 농산물의 품질, 수익 및 의사결정 효율성을 향상시키기 위한 통합적인 농업 유통망 관리시스템을 개발하는 데 목적이 있다. 우리는 YOLOX 객체 탐지 알고리즘을 기반으로 한 농작물 성숙도 체크와 Prophet 모델을 기반으로 한 시장 가격 예측이라는 두 가지 핵심 기술을 채택하였다. 객체 탐지 모델을 훈련함으로써, 다양한 성숙도 단계의 농작물을 정확하게 식별할 수 있게 되어 출하 시기를 최적화할 수 있었다. 동시에, 과거 시장 가격 데이터를 수집하고 Prophet 모델을 사용하여 가격을 예측함으로써, 출하시기 결정권자들에게 신뢰할 수 있는 가격 추세 정보를 제공하였다. 연구 결과에 따르면, 휴일 요소를 고려한 모델의 성능이 그렇지 않은 모델보다 두드러지게 우수하다는 것이 밝혀져서 휴일이 가격에 미치는 영향이 강함을 증명하였다. 이 시스템은 농민 및 농산물 유통 관리자에게 강력한 도구 및 의사결정 지원을 제공하여, 다양한 계절과 휴일 기간 동안 현명한 의사결정을 내릴 수 있게 도와준다. 아울러, 농산물 유통망을 최적화하고 농산물의 품질과 수익을 향상시킬 수 있다.

• 한국유기농업학회지
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.37-52
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• 2017

Three varieties of green pepper - Chungyang pepper, Cucumber-taste pepper and Nokgwang pepper - are competing with one another in consumption due to the overlapping shipment period. The objective of this study is to analyze the influence of monthly variations of shipment quantities on the wholesale market prices. A Linear Approximated Inverse Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/IAIDS) is employed with monthly data set of three different varieties of green pepper consumption. The results show that if there is an excess supply in the market, the rate of the price decline is larger for forcing culture Chungyang pepper than other pepper varieties. On the contrary, change in supply of cucumber-taste pepper and Nokgwang pepper has little effect on the price of Chungyang pepper. The results of this study can be utilized as a basic information for enhancing the farm income and promoting agricultural policies related to the establishment of self-help funds by Chungyang pepper producer groups in Gyeongnam region.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제13권6호
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• pp.97-104
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• 2015

Purpose - The distribution of agricultural products is changing due to recent shifts in environmental free trade. Specifically, the competitiveness of domestic agricultural products has weakened as a result of the Korea-China Financial Trade Agreement. Agricultural producers are faced with increasing difficulties and organized production centers are growing in importance daily. To overcome this crisis, agricultural producer organizations are vying for environment-friendly agricultural certifications, Good Agriculture Practices (GAP) and Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP). In particular, as consumer demand for higher safety grows, farmers are increasing their certification rates. Therefore, this certification system is expected to help strengthen the competitiveness of agricultural producer organizations. Research design/data/methodology - Organized production centers are classified by certification. A survey was conducted with 91 organizations using factor analysis and logistic regression analysis for the examination. The factor analysis results are as follows. Raw material procurement, education·specialization, marketing, joint business, organizing ability, business management, effectiveness, certification, and larger organizations were classified as the nine types of factors. These factors affect the organized production centers and are used in the logistic regression analysis. The purpose of such research and analysis is to suggest a direction for future production center policies. Results - The basic statistical results are as follows: analysis of the producer organizations of 91 sites, average number of members per site of 1,624, and average sales of 25,961 million won. Additionally, the average income per farmer is 175 million won, and the pooling system rate is 53.5%. The factor analysis results are as follows. Factor 1 consists of contract cultivation, ongoing shipment, selection subdivision, traceability, and major retailer management. Factor 2 consists of manual cultivation, specialty selection, education program, and R&D. Factor 3 consists of advertising, various dealers, various sales strategies, and a unified sales counter. Factor 4 consists of agricultural materials co-purchase, policy support, co-shipment, and incentives. Factor 5 consists of the co-selection and pooling system. Factor 6 consists of co-branding and operating by the organization's article. Factor 7 consists of the buy-sell ratio and rate of operation of the agriculture promotion center. Factor 8 consists of bargaining power in volume and participation rate of farmer certification. Factor 9 consists of increasing new subscribers. The logistic regression analysis results are as follows. Considering the results by type of certification, the environment-friendly agricultural certification type and the GAP certification type have a (+) influence. GAP and HACCP certification types affecting the education·specialization factor have a (+) influence. Considering the results for each type of certification, the environment-friendly agricultural certification types on the effectiveness factor have (-) influence; the HACCP certification types on the organizing ability and effectiveness factor have a (-) influence. Conclusions - Agricultural producer organizations should develop plans as follows: The organizations need to secure education for agricultural production; increase the pooling system ratio for sustainable organizational development; and, finally, expand the number of agricultural producer organizations.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제48권4호
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• pp.815-829
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to construct a flatfish outlook model that is consistent with the "Fisheries outlook" monthly publication of the fisheries outlook center of the Korea Maritime Institute (KMI). In particular, it was designed as a partial equilibrium model limited to flatfish items, but a model was constructed with a dynamic ecological equation model (DEEM) system, considering biological breeding and shipping times. Due to limited amounts of monthly data, the market equilibrium price was calculated using a recursive model method as the inverse demand. The main research results and implications are as follows. As a result of estimating young fish inventory levels, the coefficient of the young fish inventory in the previous period was estimated to be 0.03, which was not statistically significant. Because there is distinct seasonality, when estimating the breeding outcomes, the elasticity of breeding in the previous period was found to exceed 0.7, and it increased more as the weight of the fish increased, in addition, the shipment coefficient gradually increased as the weight increased, which means that as the fish weight increased, the shipment compared to the breeding volume increased. When estimating shipments, the elasticity of breeding in previous period was estimated to respond elastically as the weight increases. The price flexibility coefficient of the total supply was inelastically estimated to be -0.19. Finally, according to a model predictive power test, the Theil U1 was estimated to be very low for all of the predictors, indicating excellent predictive power.

• 농촌지도와개발
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.423-429
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• 1997

Under the WTO system in the world, our country's apple industry must be set in quite a new aspect. For new apple industry with competition power, we should establish apple industry development strategies as follows. First, to change the present apple trees to the lowered or dwarf tree with high density planting system using M9 rootstocks. Second, to expand the size of apple orchard management and to bring up as professional apple farmers. Third, to develop the integrated apple production system considering environment and human being. Fourth, to innovate improved harvest, storage and shipment system. Finally, Rural Extension Institution should activate the farmer's training and produce the apple nursery trees of better quality.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.706-713
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• 2012

Global warming caused by greenhouse gases is threatening our ecosystem. Moreover, our food system is in severe danger. Recently the local food system is emerging as an alternative food network, decreasing food miles and carbon dioxide emissions, protecting the safety of our foods, and helping local economy. However, carbon labelling for agricultural products has not been introduced yet in Korea. Accordingly, research on food miles and carbon labelling for agricultural products should be urgently conducted. The study compared the food miles and the carbon dioxide emission of major agricultural products. In addition, the food mileages of garlic and carrot are compared between Korea and China. The results show that radish has the highest carbon dioxide emission, and followed by onion and cabbage. These products are produced from Jeju island and have a high Shipment volume. Although Chinese Garlic and radish have lower shipping volume and food miles than Koreans, they have higher carbon dioxide emissions due to ship transportation. Based on these results some valuable implications can be identified. Current food distribution system, which heavily focuses on the Metropolitan area, should be changed into a local system, in which foods are consumed in the local area first then transported to other area.

• 농촌지도와개발
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.171-195
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• 2007

Gyeonggi rice has been placed relatively favorable market position in the domestic rice market. With the superiority of its quality, gyeonggi rice has been well recognized to consumers. The price of gyeonggi rice has placed higher position than that of others. But, gyeonggi rice are facing crisis on the competition by regional brands. Therefore, this study was carried out to find the differentiated marketing strategies on problem related with the product differentiation and brand marketing of gyeonggi rice. In order to find out how much the effort on the product differentiation of gyeonggi rice affects the price and brand recognition, fifty RPCs in gyeonggi province were surveyed. As the results, $22{\sim}23%$ of harvested rice which was gathered into RPC was come out 'obscurity of production origin' when we consider material hull rice in the original production territory by collecting time and channel. With comparing sales weight of gyeonggi rice by the place of shipment, agricultural cooperative channel was the highest by 44.7%. And, wholesaler comes to 17.7%, discount outlet store was 13.9%, large quantity delivery in business was 11.1%, and department store was only 5.2%. Finally, we could consider to adopt the traceability system on gyeonggi rice distribution system from production to consumers' table to get consumers' credibility and compete imported high quality rice.

• 한국유통학회지:유통연구
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• 제17권5호
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• pp.59-83
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• 2012

농업은 타 산업 대비 기상환경에 큰 영향을 받는 산업이다. 기상 상태는 수시로 변화하며, 지역에 따라 서로 다른 특성을 보인다. 또한 이러한 지역적 특성은 그 지역의 농산물의 재배환경에도 영향을 주게 된다. 이러한 특성 때문에 기상이 농업에 미치는 영향에 대해서는 그동안 많은 연구가 이루어져 왔다. 그러나 대부분의 연구가 농작물의 생산에만 초점이 맞춰져, 농작물이 생산에서 유통과정에서 기상요인이 미치는 영향을 통합적으로 살펴본 연구는 매우 부족한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 대표적인 농작물인 배추를 중심으로, 기상요인이 농산물 유통에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 배추는 우리 식탁에서 빼놓을 수 없는 식재료이면서, 기상 변화에 영향을 많이 받는 품목이다. 기상이변으로 배추의 가격이 폭등하게 되면 서민가계에 직접적으로 영향을 받게 된다. 이러한 관점에서 생산과 유통단계별로 기상요인이 배추에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 분석하였다. 본 연구에서는 배추의 재배유형별 거래량과 거래가격에 대한 실거래 데이터와 재배시기와 판매지역에 따른 기상요인에 대한 자료를 수집하여, 배추의 도매시장 거래량과 거래가격에 영향을 미치는 기상요인을 파악하고자 하였다. 연구 결과 배추의 생산지 기상요인보다 판매지역 기상요인의 영향이 배추의 거래량과 거래가격에 상대적으로 더 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 본 연구의 결과를 바탕으로, 향후 기상요인을 고려한 출하시기와 반입량에 대한 정책적 가이드라인을 제시하여 농산물 수급에 대한 선제적이고 체계적인 대응체제가 구축된다면, 기상변화에 민감한 농산물의 가격안정에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.