• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.171-188
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• 2021

Due to an increased demand for longevity risk analysis, various stochastic models have been suggested to evaluate uncertainly in estimated life expectancy and the associated value of future annuity payments. Recently updated data allow us to analyze mortality for a longer historical period and extended age ranges. This study followed up previous case studies using up-to-date empirical data on Korean mortality and the recently developed R package StMoMo for stochastic mortality models analysis. The suitability of stochastic mortality models, focusing on retirement ages, was investigated with goodness-of-fit, validity of models, and ability of generating reasonable sets of simulation paths of future mortality. Comparisons were made across various types of models. Based on the selected models, the variability of important estimated measures associated with pension, annuity, and reverse mortgage were quantified using simulations.

• Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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• v.21 no.3 s.61
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• pp.285-293
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• 2000

Age-related changes in the geometry of human lumbar spine would lead to changes of its mechanical behaviors. To investigate the effects of the geometric changes, no age-related changes in the material/mechanical properties were considered. Using the finite element method. two age-related models of lumbar spine segments (L3-L4) were constructed. The annulus of the models was modeled as laminate composite elements with 16 layers and 6 materials. The spinal stiffness and facet reaction of the lumbar spine increased with the age-related geometric changes in various combined loadings. Fiber and transverse tensile strains of the inner annulus. cancellous bone stress and end-plate stress decreased with the age-related geometric changes whereas fiber/layer compressive strains of the annulus. facet reaction. ligament reaction and end-plate rigidity increased. Consequently, it appears that in the normal age-related deterioration of discs, the age-related geometric change contributes to the increase of spinal stiffness (the decrease in range of the motion segment), preventing an excessive deformation of the disc.

• Journal of Oral Medicine and Pain
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.21-32
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• 2021

Purpose: The purpose of the present study was to investigate the correlation between age and 34 radiomorphometric parameters on panoramic radiographs, and to provide generalized linear models (GLMs) as a non-invasive, inexpensive, and accurate method to the forensic judgement of living individual's age. Methods: The study included 417 digital panoramic radiographs of Korean individuals (178 males and 239 females, mean age: 32.57±17.81 years). Considering the skeletal differences between the sexes, GLMs were obtained separately according to sex, as well as across the total sample. For statistical analysis and to predict the accuracy of the new GLMs, root mean squared error (RMSE) and adjusted R-squared (R²) were calculated. Results: The adjusted R²-values of the developed GLMs in the total sample, and male and female groups were 0.623, 0.637, and 0.660, respectively (p<0.001), while the allowable RMSE values were 8.80, 8.42, and 8.53 years, respectively. In the GLM of the total sample, the most influential predictor of greater age was decreased pulp area in the #36 first molar (beta=-26.52; p<0.01), followed by the presence of periodontitis (beta=10.24; p<0.01). In males, the most influential factor was the presence of periodontitis (beta=9.20; p<0.05), followed by the number of full veneer crowns (beta=2.19; p<0.001). In females, the most influential predictor was the presence of periodontitis (beta=18.10; p<0.001), followed by the tooth area of the #16 first molar (beta=-11.57; p<0.001). Conclusions: We established acceptable GLM for each sex and found out the predictors necessary to age estimation which can be easily found in panoramic radiographs. Our study provides reference that parameters such as the area of tooth and pulp, the number of teeth treated, and the presence of periodontitis should be considered in estimating age.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Child Welfare
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• no.54
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• pp.79-111
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• 2016

The purpose of this study was to examine the structural models in which early cumulative risk factors affect children's language(indicated by expressive vocabularies) and social development(indicated by peer competence) at age 3 thorough their effects on the home learning environment. To examine the hypothesized models, the data of 1,725 families from the second and the fourth waves of the Panel Study of Korean Children was used. Correlation analysis and structural equation modeling were conducted to test the models. First, the cumulative risk factors at age 1 and 3 were highly correlated, implying the stability of the risk factors over time. The more cumulative risk factors at age 1 predicted the lower level of the home learning environment at age 3, which, in turn, was significantly related to both language and social development at age 3. However, the early cumulative risk factors did not directly influence later developmental outcomes. Moreover, the cumulative risk factors at age 3 were directly related to the child's language development, but neither social development northe home learning environment. In addition, the mediational role of the home learning environment (i.e., cumulative risk factors at age 1${\rightarrow}$home learning environment${\rightarrow}$language and social development) was statistically supported. In conclusion, the early cumulative risk factors in infancy indirectly predicted children's development at age 3 through the home learning environment. The practical implications for the early intervention and support for the families with infants who are experiencing multiple risk factors were discussed.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.17-27
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• 2011

A selection experiment for reduced residual feed intake (RFI) in Yorkshire pigs consisted of a line selected for lower RFI (LRFI) and a random control line (CTRL). Longitudinal measurements of daily feed intake (DFI) and body weight (BW) from generation 5 of this experiment were used. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the use of random regression (RR) and nonlinear mixed models to predict DFI and BW for individual pigs, accounting for the substantial missing information that characterizes these data, and to evaluate the effect of selection for RFI on BW and DFI curves. Forty RR models with different-order polynomials of age as fixed and random effects, and with homogeneous or heterogeneous residual variance by month of age, were fitted for both DFI and BW. Based on predicted residual sum of squares (PRESS) and residual diagnostics, the quadratic polynomial RR model was identified to be best, but with heterogeneous residual variance for DFI and homogeneous residual variance for BW. Compared to the simple quadratic and linear regression models for individual pigs, these RR models decreased PRESS by 1% and 2% for DFI and by 42% and 36% for BW on boars and gilts, respectively. Given the same number of random effects as the polynomial RR models, i.e., two for BW and one for DFI, the non-linear Gompertz model predicted better than the polynomial RR models but not as good as higher order polynomial RR models. After five generations of selection for reduced RFI, the LRFI line had a lower population curve for DFI and BW than the CTRL line, especially towards the end of the growth period.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2000.04a
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• pp.72-77
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• 2000

In order to estimate strength of concrete, many attempts have been made. However, it is difficult to estimate concrete strength with ages. In this study, the factors influencing the strength of concrete such as w/c ratio and curing temperature, were investigated and results predicted by the established strength models were compared to measured strength data. It is found that in general the estimated values are approximate to the test results. In order to accurately predict the concrete strength curing temperature factor should be employed in the strength models.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.53-58
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• 1998

The $H{\beta}$ and some metal line indices, such as Mg2, Fe52 of single-age and single-metallicity populations are computed based on the method of evolutionary population synthesis, with careful consideration of the variation of the horizontal-branch morphology with metallicity and age. We find (a) that while metal lines are little af-fected, the $H{\beta}$ index is severely enhanced (up to 30%)by the presence of the blue horizontal-branch stars, frustrating the current age-estimations from this index with out careful consideration of these stars, and (b) that there is a systematic trend in the sense that the globular clusters in giant elliptical galaxies appear to be older than those in our Galaxy by several billion years. We also calculate these indices for the stellar populations with a metallicity spread, by adopting metallicity distribution functions predicted by chemical evolution models. The comparison of the models with the observed indices of the central regions of the early-type galaxies yields the results (a) that the ages of the giant elliptical galaxies would be older than the previous estimations by several billion years, and (b) that there is a considerable age spread among elliptical galaxies, in the sense that the giant elliptical galaxies are older than small ones.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.17 no.7
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• pp.914-918
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• 2004

The random regression model methodology was applied into the estimation of genetic parameters for body weights in Chinese Simmental cattle to replace the traditional multiple trait models. The variance components were estimated using Gibbs sampling procedure on Bayesion theory. The data were extracted for Chinese Simmental cattle born during 1980 to 2000 from 6 national breeding farms, where records from 3 months to 36 months were only used in this study. A 3 orders Legendre polynomial was defined as the submodel to describe the general law of that body weight changing with months of age in population. The heritabilities of body weights from 3 months to 36 months varied between 0.31 and 0.48, where the heritabilities from 3 months to 12 months slightly decreased with months of age but ones from 13 months to 36 months increased with months of age. Specially, the heritabilities at eighteenth and twenty-fourth month of age were 0.33 and 0.36, respectively, which were slightly greater than 0.30 and 0.31 from multiple trait models. In addition, the genetic and phenotypic correlations between body weights at different month ages were also obtained using regression model.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.149-156
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• 2017

Background: This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the Hierarchical Condition Category (HCC) model, identify potentially high-cost patients, and examine the effects of adding prior utilization to the risk model using Korean claims data. Methods: We incorporated 2 years of data from the National Health Insurance Services-National Sample Cohort. Five risk models were used to predict health expenditures: model 1 (age/sex groups), model 2 (the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services-HCC with age/sex groups), model 3 (selected 54 HCCs with age/sex groups), model 4 (bed-days of care plus model 3), and model 5 (medication-days plus model 3). We evaluated model performance using $R^2$ at individual level, predictive positive value (PPV) of the top 5% of high-cost patients, and predictive ratio (PR) within subgroups. Results: The suitability of the model, including prior use, bed-days, and medication-days, was better than other models. $R^2$ values were 8%, 39%, 37%, 43%, and 57% with model 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. After being removed the extreme values, the corresponding $R^2$ values were slightly improved in all models. PPVs were 16.4%, 25.2%, 25.1%, 33.8%, and 53.8%. Total expenditure was underpredicted for the highest expenditure group and overpredicted for the four other groups. PR had a tendency to decrease from younger group to older group in both female and male. Conclusion: The risk adjustment models are important in plan payment, reimbursement, profiling, and research. Combined prior use and diagnostic data are more powerful to predict health costs and to identify high-cost patients.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.21 no.9
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• pp.1227-1232
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• 2008

Carcass characteristics data of Hanwoo (N = 1,084) were collected from two stations of the National Livestock Institute of Animal Science (NIAS), Korea and records from thirteen individual cow-calf operators were analyzed to estimate variance and covariance components and the effect of different slaughter endpoints. Carcass traits analyzed were cold carcass weight (CWT, kg), REA (rib eye area, cm2), back fat thickness (mm) and marbling score (1-7). Four different models were examined. All models included sex and contemporary group as fixed effects and the animal's direct genetic potential and environment as random effects. The first model fitted a linear covariate of age at slaughter. The second model fitted both linear and quadratic covariates of age at slaughter. The third model fitted a linear covariate of body weight at slaughter. The fourth model fitted both linear covariates of age at slaughter and body weight at slaughter. Variance components were estimated using the REML procedure with Gibb's sampler. Heritability estimate of CWT was in the range of 0.08-0.11 depending on the model applied. Heritability estimates of BF, REA and MS were in the ranges of 0.23-0.28, 0.19-0.26, and 0.44-0.45, respectively. Genetic correlations between CWT and BF, between CWT and REA, and between CWT and MS were in the ranges of -0.33 - -0.14, 0.73-0.84, and -0.01- 0.11, respectively. Genetic correlations between REA and BF, between MS and BF and between REA and MS were in the ranges of -0.82 ~ -0.72, 0.04~0.28 and -0.08 ~ -0.02, respectively. Variance and covariance components estimated varied by model with different slaughter endpoints. Body weight endpoint was more effective for direct selection in favor of yield traits and body weight endpoints affected more of the correlated response to selection for the traits of yield and quality of edible portion of beef.