• 유통과학연구
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.59-71
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• 2014

Purpose - In recent years, many firms have attempted various approaches to cope with the continual increase of aviation transportation. The previous research into freight charge forecasting models has focused on regression analyses using a few influence factors to calculate the future price. However, these approaches have limitations that make them difficult to apply into practice: They cannot respond promptly to small price changes and their predictive power is relatively low. Therefore, the current study proposes a freight charge-forecasting model using time series data instead a regression approach. The main purposes of this study can thus be summarized as follows. First, a proper model for freight charge using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which is mainly used for time series forecast, is presented. Second, a modified ARIMA model for freight charge prediction and the standard process of determining freight charge based on the model is presented. Third, a straightforward freight charge prediction model for practitioners to apply and utilize is presented. Research design, data, and methodology - To develop a new freight charge model, this study proposes the ARIMAC(p,q) model, which applies time difference constantly to address the correlation coefficient (autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function) problem as it appears in the ARIMA(p,q) model and materialize an error-adjusted ARIMAC(p,q). Cargo Account Settlement Systems (CASS) data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) are used to predict the air freight charge. In the modeling, freight charge data for 72 months (from January 2006 to December 2011) are used for the training set, and a prediction interval of 23 months (from January 2012 to November 2013) is used for the validation set. The freight charge from November 2012 to November 2013 is predicted for three routes - Los Angeles, Miami, and Vienna - and the accuracy of the prediction interval is analyzed using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results - The result of the proposed model shows better accuracy of prediction because the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 10% and the MAPE of ARIMAC is 11.2% for the L.A. route. For the Miami route, the proposed model also shows slightly better accuracy in that the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 3.5%, while that of ARIMAC is 3.7%. However, for the Vienna route, the accuracy of ARIMAC is better because the MAPE of ARIMAC is 14.5% and the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 15.7%. Conclusions - The accuracy of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model appears better when a route's freight charge variance is large, and the accuracy of ARIMA is better when the freight charge variance is small or has a trend of ascent or descent. From the results, it can be concluded that the ARIMAC model, which uses moving averages, has less predictive power for small price changes, while the error-adjusted ARIMAC model, which uses error correction, has the advantage of being able to respond to price changes quickly.

• 한국병원경영학회지
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.21-33
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• 2014

This study was conducted to propose an insight into the appropriateness of hospital length of stay(LOS) by developing a severity-adjusted LOS model for patients with pneumonia, organism unspecified. The pneumonia risk-adjustment model developed in this paper is based upon the 2006-2010 the Korean National Hospital Discharge in-depth Injury Survey. Decision tree analysis revealed that age, admission type, insurance type, and the presence of additional disorders(pleural effusion, respiratory failure, sepsis, congestive heart failure etc.) were major factors affecting the severity-adjusted model using the Clinical Classifications Software(CCS). Also there was a difference in LOS among the regional hospitals, especially the hospital LOS has not been efficiently managed in Gyeongsangbuk-do, Jeollanam-do, Jeollabuk-do, Daejeon, and Busan. To appropriately manage hospital LOS, reliable statistical information about severity-adjusted LOS should be generated on a national level to make sure that hospitals voluntarily reduce excessive LOS and manage main causes of delayed discharge.

• 한국측량학회지
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• 제21권4호
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• pp.301-308
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• 2003

본 논문은 IKONOS 입체영상과 RPC(Rational Polynomial Coefficients) 모델을 이용하여 3차원 지형자료를 추출할 경우, 추출되는 3차원 지형자료의 정확도를 향상시키기 위하여 RPC모델의 위치정확도를 보정하는 연구를 수행하였다. 이를 위하여 지상기준점을 활용하여 RPC 모델의 보정을 시도할 경우, 지상기준점의 지역적인 분포 및 사용되는 개수가 보정되는 RPC 모델의 위치정확도 향상에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 검증하였다. 실험결과 사용되는 지상기준점의 개수보다는 지상기준점의 분포상태가 보정되는 RPC 모델의 위치정확도에 미치는 영향이 더 크다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한, 분포상태가 고른 지상기준점을 사용하여 본 연구에서 사용한 알고리즘을 적용할 경우에 안정적으로 위치정확도가 향상된 RPC 모델을 획득할 수 있음을 알 수 있었다. 수행된 연구결과를 토대로 지상기준점의 분포가 좋지 않거나 사용 가능한 지상기준점의 개수가 부족한 경우, 이를 극복하기 위해 의사지상기준점을 활용하는 알고리즘에 관한 연구도 수행하였다. 실험 결과에 따르면 지역적으로 좋지 않은 분포를 보이는 지상기준점들을 활용한 경우에도 의사지상기준점을 활용하면 원래의 RPC 모델보다 위치정확도가 향상된 RPC 모델을 얻을 수 있었다. 그리고 적은 수의 의사지상기준점을 활용할수록 즉, 지상기준점에 대한 가중치를 더 높일수록 정확도가 높은 RPC 모델을 획득할 수 있었다. 마지막으로, 본 연구에서 개발된 알고리즘들을 적용하여 RPC 모델의 위치정확도를 보정하고 이를 이용하여 3차원 지형좌표를 추출하였다. 정확도평가 결과 원래의 RPC 모델을 사용하여 추출된 3차원 지형좌표보다 정확도가 향상된 3차원 지형좌표의 취득이 가능하였다. 이는 본 연구에서 개발한 알고리즘들의 효용성을 입증하는 결과라 사료된다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.605-613
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• 2020

In unfrictionless markets, one measure of asset pricing is its height of friction. This study develops a three-factor model by loosening the assumptions about stocks without friction, without risk, and perfectly liquid. Friction is used as an indicator of transaction costs to be included in the model as a variable that will reduce individual profits. This approach is used to estimate return, beta and other variable for firms listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). To test the efficacy of friction-adjusted three-factor model, we use intraday data from July 2016 to October 2018. The sample includes all listed firms; intraday data chosen purposively from regular market are sorted by capitalization, which represents each tick size from the biggest to smallest. We run 3,065,835 intraday data of asking price, bid price, and trading price to get proportional quoted half-spread and proportional effective half-spread. We find evidence of adjusted friction on the three-factor model. High/low trading friction will cause a significant/insignificant return difference before and after adjustment. The difference in average beta that reflects market risk is able to explain the existence of trading friction, while the difference between SMB and HML in all observation periods cannot explain returns and the existence of trading friction.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제46권2호
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• pp.74-81
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• 2013

Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of risk-adjusted mortality models for colorectal cancer surgery. Methods: We investigated patients (n=652) who had undergone colorectal cancer surgery (colectomy, colectomy of the rectum and sigmoid colon, total colectomy, total proctectomy) at five teaching hospitals during 2008. Mortality was defined as 30-day or in-hospital surgical mortality. Risk-adjusted mortality models were constructed using claims data (basic model) with the addition of TNM staging (TNM model), physiological data (physiological model), surgical data (surgical model), or all clinical data (composite model). Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to develop the risk-adjustment models. To compare the performance of the models, both c-statistics using Hanley-McNeil pair-wise testing and the ratio of the observed to the expected mortality within quartiles of mortality risk were evaluated to assess the abilities of discrimination and calibration. Results: The physiological model (c=0.92), surgical model (c=0.92), and composite model (c=0.93) displayed a similar improvement in discrimination, whereas the TNM model (c=0.87) displayed little improvement over the basic model (c=0.86). The discriminatory power of the models did not differ by the Hanley-McNeil test (p>0.05). Within each quartile of mortality, the composite and surgical models displayed an expected mortality ratio close to 1. Conclusions: The addition of clinical data to claims data efficiently enhances the performance of the risk-adjusted postoperative mortality models in colorectal cancer surgery. We recommended that the performance of models should be evaluated through both discrimination and calibration.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.413-422
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• 2012

본 연구는 급성심근경색증 입원환자를 대상으로 중증도가 보정된 적정 재원일수 예측모형을 개발하여 의료의 질 관리 및 정책 개발에 필요한 기초자료를 제시하고자 하였다. 2004-2006년 퇴원손상심층조사 자료 중 급성심근경색증 입원환자 2,309명을 대상으로 급성심근경색증 입원환자의 적정 재원일수 예측모형은 데이터마이닝을 이용하여 개발하였다. 의사결정나무 모형에 따라 급성심근경색증 입원환자의 평균재원일수에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 변수는 관상동맥우회술(CABG)과 동반질환 건수로 나타났다. 앙상블 모형을 이용하여 개발된 급성심근경색증 입원환자의 중증도 보정 재원일수 모형 결과, 적정 재원일수와 실제 재원일수의 차이는 보험유형과 의료기관 소재지가 통계적으로 유의하게 나타났다. 따라서 재원일수의 변이를 줄이고 효율적으로 관리하기 위해 의료기관에서는 다빈도 질환에 대한 중증도 보정 적정 재원일수 예측모형을 개발하여 이를 의료정보시스템에 적용하고 관리하는 활동을 전개해야 할 것이다.

• 대한치과의사협회지
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• 제51권9호
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• pp.511-517
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• 2013

To assess the association between oral health and general health, this study examined the relationship between chewing difficulty and twelve chronic health conditions such as hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, cerebro- and cardiovascular disease, musculoskeletal disease, respiratory disease, eye/nose/throat disease, stomach/intestinal ulcer, renal dysfunction, thyroid disease, depression, and cancer in Korea. The study population was 3,066 elders aged 65 years old and more from the fourth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Chewing difficulty was measured on a 5-point Likert scale. Chronic conditions were assessed by self-reported questionnaire. Confounders were age, gender, education, income, smoking, drinking, and obesity. Chi-square test, general linear model, and multiple logistic regression model were done with complex sampling design. Musculoskeletal disease (adjusted odds ratio=1.33), respiratory disease (adjusted odds ratio=1.52), and cancer (adjusted odds ratio=1.58) were independently associated with chewing difficulty. Multiple chronic conditions with more than 4 chronic disease showed significant association with chewing difficulty (adjusted odds ratio=1.37).

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.533-542
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• 2002

In this paper, a covariate adjusted logrank test is considered for censored paired data under the Cox proportional hazard model. The proposed score test resembles the adjusted logrank test of Tsiatis, Rosner and Tritchler (1985), which is derived from the partial likelihood. The dependence structure for paired data is accommodated into the test statistic by using' sum of square type' variance estimators. Several weight functions are also considered, which produce a class of covariate adjusted weighted logrank tests. Asymptotic normality of the proposed test is established and simulation studies with moderate sample size show the proposed test works well, particularly when there are dependence structure between treatment and covariates.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제22권51호
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• pp.151-161
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• 1999

For many decades, Deterministic DCF approach has been widely used to evaluate investment opportunities. Under new manufacturing conditions involving uncertainty and risk, the DCF approach is not appropriate. In DCF, Risk is incorporated in two ways: certainty equivalent method, risk adjusted discount rate. This paper proposes a determination method of the Risk Adjusted Discount Rate for economically decision making advanced manufacturing technologies. Conventional DCF techniques typically use discount rate which do not consider the difference in risk of differential investment options and periods. Due to their relative efficiency, advanced manufacturing technologies have different degree of risk. The risk differential of investments is included using $\beta$ coefficient of capital asset pricing model. The comparison between existing and proposed method investigated. The DCF model using proposed risk adjusted discount rate enable more reasonable evaluation of advanced manufacturing technologies.

• 한국의료질향상학회지
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.216-231
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• 2003

Objectives: To develop a model that predicts a death probability of acute myocardial infarction(AMI) patient, and to evaluate a performance of hospital services using the developed model. Methods: Medical records of 861 AMI patients in 7 general hospitals during 1996 and 1997 were reviewed by two trained nurses. Variables studied were risk factors which were measured in terms of severity measures. A risk model was developed by using the logistic regression, and its performance was evaluated using cross-validation and bootstrap techniques. The statistical prediction capability of the model was assessed by using c-statistic, $R^2$ as well as Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The model performance was also evaluated using severity-adjusted mortalities of hospitals. Results: Variables included in the model building are age, sex, ejection fraction, systolic BP, congestive heart failure at admission, cardiac arrest, EKG ischemia, arrhythmia, left anterior descending artery occlusion, verbal response within 48 hours after admission, acute neurological change within 48 hours after admission, and 3 interaction terms. The c statistics and $R^2$ were 0.887 and 0.2676. The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 6.3355 (p-value=0.6067). Among 7 hospitals evaluated by the model, two hospitals showed significantly higher mortality rates, while other two hospitals had significantly lower mortality rates, than the average mortality rate of all hospitals. The remaining hospitals did not show any significant difference. Conclusion: The comparison of the qualities of hospital service using risk-adjusted mortality rates indicated significant difference among them. We therefore conclude that risk-adjusted mortality rate of AMI patients can be used as an indicator for evaluating hospital performance in Korea.