• Title/Summary/Keyword: Accident Factor

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Estimation of Freeway Traffic Accident Rate using Traffic Volume and Trip Length (교통량과 통행길이를 고려한 고속도로 교통사고 예측 연구)

  • Baek, Seung-Geol;Jang, Hyeon-Ho;Gang, Jeong-Gyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2005
  • Road accidents are considered as the result of a complex interplay between road, vehicle, environments, and human factors. Little study, however, has been carried out on the attributes of human factor compared to the road geometric conditions and traffic conditions. The previous researches focused on mainly both traffic and geometric conditions on specific location. Therefore, it's hard to explain phenomenon of the high traffic accident rates where road and traffic conditions are good. Because of these reasons, accident analysis has contributed on geometric improvement and has not contributed on traffic management such as selection of attention section, driver napping alert, etc. The freeway incident management is also associated with reliable prediction of incident occurrences on freeway sections. This paper presents a method for estimating the effect of trip length on freeway accident rate. A PAR (Potential Accident Ratio), the new concept of accident analysis, considering TLFDs (Trip Length Frequency Distributions) is suggested in this paper. This approach can help to strengthen freeway management and to reduce the likelihood of accidents.

Safety of Workers in Indian Mines: Study, Analysis, and Prediction

  • Verma, Shikha;Chaudhari, Sharad
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.267-275
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    • 2017
  • Background: The mining industry is known worldwide for its highly risky and hazardous working environment. Technological advancement in ore extraction techniques for proliferation of production levels has caused further concern for safety in this industry. Research so far in the area of safety has revealed that the majority of incidents in hazardous industry take place because of human error, the control of which would enhance safety levels in working sites to a considerable extent. Methods: The present work focuses upon the analysis of human factors such as unsafe acts, preconditions for unsafe acts, unsafe leadership, and organizational influences. A modified human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS) was adopted and an accident predictive fuzzy reasoning approach (FRA)-based system was developed to predict the likelihood of accidents for manganese mines in India, using analysis of factors such as age, experience of worker, shift of work, etc. Results: The outcome of the analysis indicated that skill-based errors are most critical and require immediate attention for mitigation. The FRA-based accident prediction system developed gives an outcome as an indicative risk score associated with the identified accident-prone situation, based upon which a suitable plan for mitigation can be developed. Conclusion: Unsafe acts of the worker are the most critical human factors identified to be controlled on priority basis. A significant association of factors (namely age, experience of the worker, and shift of work) with unsafe acts performed by the operator is identified based upon which the FRA-based accident prediction model is proposed.

An Analysis of Factors Relating to Agricultural Machinery Farm-Work Accidents Using Logistic Regression

  • Kim, Byounggap;Yum, Sunghyun;Kim, Yu-Yong;Yun, Namkyu;Shin, Seung-Yeoub;You, Seokcheol
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.151-157
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: In order to develop strategies to prevent farm-work accidents relating to agricultural machinery, influential factors were examined in this paper. The effects of these factors were quantified using logistic regression. Methods: Based on the results of a survey on farm-work accidents conducted by the National Academy of Agricultural Science, 21 tentative independent variables were selected. To apply these variables to regression, the presence of multicollinearity was examined by comparing correlation coefficients, checking the statistical significance of the coefficients in a simple linear regression model, and calculating the variance inflation factor. A logistic regression model and determination method of its goodness of fit was defined. Results: Among 21 independent variables, 13 variables were not collinear each other. The results of a logistic regression analysis using these variables showed that the model was significant and acceptable, with deviance of 714.053. Parameter estimation results showed that four variables (age, power tiller ownership, cognizance of the government's safety policy, and consciousness of safety) were significant. The logistic regression model predicted that the former two increased accident odds by 1.027 and 8.506 times, respectively, while the latter two decreased the odds by 0.243 and 0.545 times, respectively. Conclusions: Prevention strategies against factors causing an accident, such as the age of farmers and the use of a power tiller, are necessary. In addition, more efficient trainings to elevate the farmer's consciousness about safety must be provided.

A Hierarchical Approach for Diagnose of Safety Performance and Factor Identification for Black Spots (Black on Suwon-city) (사고다발지점의 안전성능진단 및 위치별 사고요인분석(수원시를 중심으로))

  • Kim, Suk-Hui;Jang, Jeong-A;Choe, Gi-Ju
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2005
  • Accident type and/or factor identification is important in accident reduction planning. The aim of this paper is to apply the hierarchical approach with binomial distribution and logistic regression analysis to find out types and factors, respectively. Based on 2001 Suwon city black spot data, a binomial distribution modeling approach has been applied to diagnose the black spots, with the help of safety performance modeling approach has been applied to diagnose the black spots, with the help of safety performance function. Then, the logistic regression analysis has been employed to identify the critical factors. Some accident remedies are also reviewed in the light of the model outcomes. The proposed research framework sheds light on a different accident related research and can also be successfully applied to similar studies and sites.

Psychological Suggestions for an Accident Prone Society: Introducing Eight Articles on the Psychological Mechanism of Accidents and Preventive Alternatives (사고공화국에 대한 심리학적 제의: 안전사고의 심리적 기제와 대안 모색에 관한 여덟 편의 논문을 안내하면서)

  • Jonghan Yi
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.9 no.spc
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this paper is to introduce eight articles which were written on the psychological mechanisms of accidents in Korean society and to suggest alternatives to prevent them. All of these articles were presented during the "Symposium of Safety" at the Annual Conference of the Korean Psychological Association, at Youngnam University through October 18~19, 2002. Frequently occurring accidents in Korean society are a very serious and enduring social issue. Psychological and cultural factors, as well as environmental factors, were found to be leading causes of the various accidents. The preventative alternatives for these accidents should be developed taking into account these factors. A nation-wide comprehensive institute for accident management is necessary to control accidents and to study and to develop preventive programs. The attitude of psychologists also needs to shift from the laboratory to the field toward accidents and from passive to aggressive toward issues facing Korean society.

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Development of the Fire Prevention Method related to Gas in the Area of Dense Energy Consumption (에너지 사용 밀집지역에서의 가스 관련 화재예방 기법 개발)

  • Kim, Jung-Hoon;Kim, Young-Gu;Jo, Young-Do
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.29-33
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    • 2018
  • Accident likelihood is growing due to a correlation for gas and electricity installed in the area of dense energy consumption like traditional market and underground shopping center. In order to prevent and respond accident risks related to gas and electricity in this area, it should be monitored and predicted for factors of gas leak or electricity by developing safety management system. This study is about accident prediction model development considering fire risk factor related to gas accident. The temperature variation characteristic near a gas burner was analyzed. Also, accident prediction algorithm and related module were developed to prevent fire in the area of dense energy consumption.

Developing the Accident Models of Cheongju Arterial Link Sections Using ZAM Model (ZAM 모형을 이용한 청주시 간선가로 구간의 사고모형 개발)

  • Park, Byung-Ho;Kim, Jun-Yong
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.43-49
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    • 2010
  • This study deals with the traffic accident of the Cheongju arterial link sections. The purpose of the study is to develop the traffic accident model. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the ZAM(zero-altered model) model using the accident data of arterial roads devided by 322 small link sections. The main results analyzed by ZIP(zero inflated Poisson model) and ZINB(zero inflated negative binomial model) which are the methods of ZAM, are as follows. First, the evaluation of various developed models by the Vuong statistic and t statistic for overdispersion parameter ${\alpha}$ shows that ZINB is analyzed to be optimal among Poisson, NB, ZIP(zero-inflated Poisson) and ZINB regression models. Second, ZINB is evaluated to be statistically significant in view of t, ${\rho}$ and ${\rho}^2$ (0.63) values compared to other models. Finally, the accident factors of ZINB models are developed to be the traffic volume(ADT), number of entry/exit and length of median. The traffic volume(ADT) and the number of entry/exit are evaluated to be the '+' factors and the length of median to be '-' factor of the accident.

A research for improvement methods in the aspect of safety engineering through risk analysis of facilities for multiple use - Focused on escalator and passenger conveyors - (다중이용시설물 위험분석을 통한 안전공학적 개선 방안에 관한 연구 (에스컬레이터 및 수평보행기를 중심으로))

  • Kwon, Sun-Geol;Kim, Jin-Soo;Kim, Chang-Eun
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2013
  • For the matter of elevator, one of the multi-use facilities for unspecified public, the JIS has re-established and reformed to apply to the environment in South Korea for the past 20 years. In the aspect of safety assurance, it was inevitable to suggest improved measures. The government, Ministry of Public Administration and Security has secured the safety by enhancing the safety management functions in the elevator inspection standards and expanding its safety device measures. Further, the international inspection standard has been introduced, which is about unifying inspection standard system into the international standard code. In March 14th 2012, the international standard (EN) has been amended and fully announced. Escalator and passenger conveyor among lift devices have several common danger factor that cause safety accident. First, the accident caused by decreased braking power of brake. Second, the accident caused by the rate difference between handrail and tread-board. Third, the accident caused by defects of contraflow preventing device or carelessness inspection. Fourth, the accident caused by wet tread-board or wet floor of platform which makes passenger slip and fall. As the improvements to prevent and reduce these negligent accidents, the inspection list to check and methods should be subdivided and applied for each accident likelihood cause for safety management enhancement and safety assurance of existing escalator and passenger conveyors. The escalators and passenger conveyors without safety devices in existence should be obliged to modify the part of the system or install additional safety device. With making these measures obligations, it requires to improve the system to be suitable for the international inspection standard and to have measures to prevent safety accidents. It also needs to arrange improvements for skid accident of tread-board by the external environment factors such as snow and rain.

An Analysis of Multiple-Vehicle Accidents on Freeways Using Multinomial Logit Model (다항로짓모형을 이용한 고속도로 다중추돌사고 특성 분석)

  • Jeon, Hyeonmyeong;Kim, Jinhee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2020
  • The aim of this study is to analyze effects of factors on the number of vehicles involved in traffic accidents on freeway sections. In previous studies about traffic accident severity, the analysis of accidents involving multiple vehicles was insufficient. However, multiple-vehicle accidents are likely to cause casualties and are the main reasons increasing accident duration and social costs. In this study, the number of vehicles involved in an accident was interpreted as the result of the accident, not as the cause of the accident, and the impacts of each accident factor were analyzed using a multinomial logit model. The results indicate that multiple-vehicle accidents are mainly related to following factors: nighttime, driver's faults, obstacles on the road, a downhill slope, heavy vehicles, and freeway mainline sections including tunnels and bridges.