• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.252-258
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• 2007

There has been a lot of research done in scheme guaranteeing user's mobility and effective resources management to satisfy the requested by users in the wireless/mobile networks. In this paper, we propose a predictive resource allocation scheme based on ARMA(Auto Regressive Moving Average) prediction model to meet QoS requirements(handoff dropping rate) for guaranteeing users' mobility. The proposed scheme predicts the demanded amount of resource in the future time by ARMA time series prediction model, and then reserves it. The ARMA model can be used to take into account the correlation of future handoff resource demands with present and past handoff demands for provision of targeted handoff dropping rate. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme outperforms the existing RCS(Reserved channel scheme) in terms of handoff connection dropping rate and resource utilization.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Power Electronics
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.316-324
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• 2022

This paper uses seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (S-ARIMA), which is efficient in seasonality between time-series models, to predict the degradation tendency for lithium-ion batteries and study a method for improving the predictive performance. The proposed method analyzes the degradation tendency and extracted factors through an electrical characteristic experiment of lithium-ion batteries, and verifies whether time-series data are suitable for the S-ARIMA model through several statistical analysis techniques. Finally, prediction of battery aging is performed through S-ARIMA, and performance of the model is verified through error comparison of predictions through mean absolute error.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.86-94
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• 2002

The initial alignment of inertial platform for navigation system was considered. An adaptive filtering technique is developed for the system with unknown and varying sway disturbance. It is assumed that the random sway motion is the second order ARMA(Auto Regressive Moving Average) model and performed parameter identification for unknown parameters. Designed adaptive filter contain both a Kalman filter and a self-tuning filter. This filtering system can automatically adapt to varying environmental conditions. To verify the robustness of the filtering system, the computer simulation was performed with unknown and varying sway disturbance.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.43-48
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• 2015

In this study, a method to enhance the dynamic range of seismic sensor is proposed. The low frequency noise included in the measurement of seismic sensor is modelled as an ARMA(Auto Regressive Moving Average) model and the order and parameters of the model are identified through system identification method. The identified noise model is augmented into Kalmman filter which estimate seismic signal from sensor measurement. The proposed method is applied to a newly developed seismic sensor which is MEMS based 3-axis accelerometer type. The experiment show that the proposed method can enhance the dynamic range compared to the simple low pass filtering.

• Advances in Energy Research
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.131-143
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• 2019

Global Solar Radiation (GSR) is the key element for performance estimation of any Solar Power Plant (SPP). Its forecasting may help in estimation of power production from a SPP well in advance, and may also render help in optimal use of this power. Seasonal Auto-Regressive Moving Average (SARMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models are combined in order to develop a hybrid model (SARMA-ANN) conceiving the characteristics of both linear and non-linear prediction models. This developed model has been used for prediction of GSR at Gorakhpur, situated in the northern region of India. The proposed model is beneficial for the univariate forecasting. Along with this model, we have also used Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA), SARMA, ANN based models for 1 - 6 day-ahead forecasting of GSR on hourly basis. It has been found that the proposed model presents least RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and produces best forecasting results among all the models considered in the present study. As an application, the comparison between the forecasted one and the energy produced by the grid connected PV plant installed on the parking stands of the University shows the superiority of the proposed model.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1999.10a
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• pp.45-48
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• 1999

Model predictive control algorithm requires a relevant model of the system to be controlled. Unfortunately, the first principle model describing a polymerization reaction system has a large number of parameters to be estimated. Thus there is a need for the identification and control of a polymerization reactor system by using available input-output data. In this work, the polynomial auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) models are employed as the input-output model and combined into the nonlinear model predictive control algorithm based on the successive linearization method. Simulations are conducted to identify the continuous styrene polymerization reactor system. The input variables are the jacket inlet temperature and the feed flow rate whereas the output variables are the monomer conversion and the weight-average molecular weight. The polynomial ARMA models obtained by the system identification are used to control the monomer conversion and the weight-average molecular weight in a continuous styrene polymerization reactor It is demonstrated that the nonlinear model predictive controller based on the polynomial ARMA model tracks the step changes in the setpoint satisfactorily. In conclusion, the polynomial ARMA model is proven effective in controlling the continuous styrene polymerization reactor.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and information Science
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.61-65
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• 1997

This paper proposes an intelligent controller for brushless DC motor and load with unknown nonlinear dynamics. The proposed intelligent control system consists of a plant identifier and PID controller with varying gains. The identifier is constructed using an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. In order to tune the parameters of the identifier and the gains of the PID controller efficiently, e also propose a modified Evolution Strategy. Experimental results show that the proposed intelligent controller for brushless DC motor has good control performance under unknown disturbance.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.25 no.12
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• pp.1756-1761
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• 2021

Although the COVID-19 outbreak that occurred in Wuhan, Hubei around December 2019, seemed to be gradually decreasing, it was gradually increasing as of November 2020 and June 2021, and estimated confirmed cases were 192 million worldwide and approximately 184 thousand in South Korea. The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters have been taking strong countermeasures by implementing level 4 social distancing. However, as the highly infectious COVID-19 variants, such as Delta mutation, have been on the rise, the number of daily confirmed cases in Korea has increased to 1,800. Therefore, the number of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases is predicted using ARIMA algorithms to emphasize the severity of COVID-19. In the process, differences are used to remove trends and seasonality, and p, d, and q values are determined and forecasted in ARIMA using MA, AR, autocorrelation functions, and partial autocorrelation functions. Finally, forecast and actual values are compared to evaluate how well it was forecasted.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.373-382
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• 1998

Most of the works in Time Series Analysis are based on the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models presented by Box and Jeckins(1976). If the data exhibits no ap-parent deviation from stationarity and if it has rapidly decreasing autocorrelation function then a suitable ARIMA(p,q) model is fit to the given data. Selection of the orders of p and q is one of the crucial steps in Time Series Analysis. Most of the methods to determine p and q are based on the autocorrelation function and partial autocor-relation function as suggested by Box and Jenkins (1976). many new techniques have emerged in the literature and it is found that most of them are over very little use in determining the orders of p and q when both of them are non-zero. The Durbin-Levinson algorithm and Innovation algorithm (Brockwell and Davis 1987) are used as recur-sive methods for computing best linear predictors in an ARMA(p,q)model. These algorithms are modified to yield an effective method for ARMA model identification so that the values of order p and q can be determined from them. The new method is developed and its validity and usefulness is illustrated by many theoretical examples. This method can also be applied to an real world data.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.144-149
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• 2000

The demands for robotic and automatic system are continually increasing in manufacturing fields. There have been many studies to monitor and predict the system, but they have mainly focused upon measuring cutting force, and current of motor spindle, and upon using acoustic sensor, etc. In this study, time series sequence of cutting force was acquired by taking advantage of piezoelectric type tool dynamometer. Radial cutting force was obtained from it and was available for useful observation data. The parameter was estimated using PAA(parameter adaptation algorithm) from observation data. ARMA(auto regressive moving average) model was selected for system model and second order was decided according to parameter estimation. Uncorrelation test was also carried out to verify convergence of parameter.