• Title/Summary/Keyword: ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)

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A Context-aware Task Offloading Scheme in Collaborative Vehicular Edge Computing Systems

  • Jin, Zilong;Zhang, Chengbo;Zhao, Guanzhe;Jin, Yuanfeng;Zhang, Lejun
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.383-403
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    • 2021
  • With the development of mobile edge computing (MEC), some late-model application technologies, such as self-driving, augmented reality (AR) and traffic perception, emerge as the times require. Nevertheless, the high-latency and low-reliability of the traditional cloud computing solutions are difficult to meet the requirement of growing smart cars (SCs) with computing-intensive applications. Hence, this paper studies an efficient offloading decision and resource allocation scheme in collaborative vehicular edge computing networks with multiple SCs and multiple MEC servers to reduce latency. To solve this problem with effect, we propose a context-aware offloading strategy based on differential evolution algorithm (DE) by considering vehicle mobility, roadside units (RSUs) coverage, vehicle priority. On this basis, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is employed to predict idle computing resources according to the base station traffic in different periods. Simulation results demonstrate that the practical performance of the context-aware vehicular task offloading (CAVTO) optimization scheme could reduce the system delay significantly.

Power Consumption Forecasting Scheme for Educational Institutions Based on Analysis of Similar Time Series Data (유사 시계열 데이터 분석에 기반을 둔 교육기관의 전력 사용량 예측 기법)

  • Moon, Jihoon;Park, Jinwoong;Han, Sanghoon;Hwang, Eenjun
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.44 no.9
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    • pp.954-965
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    • 2017
  • A stable power supply is very important for the maintenance and operation of the power infrastructure. Accurate power consumption prediction is therefore needed. In particular, a university campus is an institution with one of the highest power consumptions and tends to have a wide variation of electrical load depending on time and environment. For this reason, a model that can accurately predict power consumption is required for the effective operation of the power system. The disadvantage of the existing time series prediction technique is that the prediction performance is greatly degraded because the width of the prediction interval increases as the difference between the learning time and the prediction time increases. In this paper, we first classify power data with similar time series patterns considering the date, day of the week, holiday, and semester. Next, each ARIMA model is constructed based on the classified data set and a daily power consumption forecasting method of the university campus is proposed through the time series cross-validation of the predicted time. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction, we confirmed the validity of the proposed method by applying performance indicators.

Effect of Repeated Public Releases on Cesarean Section Rates

  • Jang, Won-Mo;Eun, Sang-Jun;Lee, Chae-Eun;Kim, Yoon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.2-8
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    • 2011
  • Objectives: Public release of and feedback (here after public release) on institutional (clinics and hospitals) cesarean section rates has had the effect of reducing cesarean section rates. However, compared to the isolated intervention, there was scant evidence of the effect of repeated public releases (RPR) on cesarean section rates. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effect of RPR for reducing cesarean section rates. Methods: From January 2003 to July 2007, the nationwide monthly institutional cesarean section rates data (1 951 303 deliveries at 1194 institutions) were analyzed. We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time-series intervention models to assess the effect of the RPR on cesarean section rates and ordinal logistic regression model to determine the characteristics of the change in cesarean section rates. Results: Among four RPR, we found that only the first one (August 29, 2005) decreased the cesarean section rate (by 0.81 percent) and continued to have an impact period through the last observation in May 2007. Baseline cesarean section rates (OR, 4.7; 95% CI, 3.1 to 7.1) and annual number of deliveries (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.6 to 4.7) of institutions in the upper third of each category at before first intervention had a significant contribution to the decrease of cesarean section rates. Conclusions: We could not found the evidence that RPR has had the significant effect of reducing cesarean section rates. Institutions with upper baseline cesarean section rates and annual number of deliveries were more responsive to RPR.

Trend analysis of the number of nurses and evaluation of nursing staffs expansion policy in Korean hospitals (시계열 자료를 이용한 병원 간호 인력의 변화 추이 및 병원 간호사 확보를 위한 정책의 효과 평가)

  • Park, Bo Hyun;Lee, Tae Jin;Park, Hyeung-Keun;Kim, Chul-Woung;Jeong, Baek-Geun;Lee, Sang-Yi
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.297-314
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    • 2012
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to analyze the trend of the number of nursing staffs and skill mix and to assess the effectiveness of hospital nurse expansion policies in Korea. Methods : The trend of the number of nursing staffs and skill mix were analyzed using time series data, which composed of yearly series data from 1975 to 2009. The impact of hospital nurse expansion policies was estimated by autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) intervention model. Results : The number of general hospital and hospital nurses per 100 beds was decreased in late 1980s and late 1990s due to rapid growth of beds. As a result of the number of nurse aids per 100 beds decreased, skill mix became high in general hospital but nurse ratio among hospital nursing staffs was about 50%. Expansion of new nurse and revised differentiated inpatient fee were only effective in expansion of hospital nursing staffs. But they had no effect in general hospitals. Conclusion : In Korea, a few policies related to expansion of hospital nurses have an effect on increasing the number of hospital nurse. Nevertheless, level of hospital nursing staffs is inferior to that of general hospital.

Bivariate long range dependent time series forecasting using deep learning (딥러닝을 이용한 이변량 장기종속시계열 예측)

  • Kim, Jiyoung;Baek, Changryong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.69-81
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    • 2019
  • We consider bivariate long range dependent (LRD) time series forecasting using a deep learning method. A long short-term memory (LSTM) network well-suited to time series data is applied to forecast bivariate time series; in addition, we compare the forecasting performance with bivariate fractional autoregressive integrated moving average (FARIMA) models. Out-of-sample forecasting errors are compared with various performance measures for functional MRI (fMRI) data and daily realized volatility data. The results show a subtle difference in the predicted values of the FIVARMA model and VARFIMA model. LSTM is computationally demanding due to hyper-parameter selection, but is more stable and the forecasting performance is competitively good to that of parametric long range dependent time series models.

Effective Drought Prediction Based on Machine Learning (머신러닝 기반 효과적인 가뭄예측)

  • Kim, Kyosik;Yoo, Jae Hwan;Kim, Byunghyun;Han, Kun-Yeun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.326-326
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    • 2021
  • 장기간에 걸쳐 넓은 지역에 대해 발생하는 가뭄을 예측하기위해 많은 학자들의 기술적, 학술적 시도가 있어왔다. 본 연구에서는 복잡한 시계열을 가진 가뭄을 전망하는 방법 중 시나리오에 기반을 둔 가뭄전망 방법과 실시간으로 가뭄을 예측하는 비시나리오 기반의 방법 등을 이용하여 미래 가뭄전망을 실시했다. 시나리오에 기반을 둔 가뭄전망 방법으로는, 3개월 GCM(General Circulation Model) 예측 결과를 바탕으로 2009년도 PDSI(Palmer Drought Severity Index) 가뭄지수를 산정하여 가뭄심도에 대한 단기예측을 실시하였다. 또, 통계학적 방법과 물리적 모델(Physical model)에 기반을 둔 확정론적 수치해석 방법을 이용하여 비시나리오 기반 가뭄을 예측했다. 기존 가뭄을 통계학적 방법으로 예측하기 위해서 시도된 대표적인 방법으로 ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) 모델의 예측에 대한 한계를 극복하기위해 서포트 벡터 회귀(support vector regression, SVR)와 웨이블릿(wavelet neural network) 신경망을 이용해 SPI를 측정하였다. 최적모델구조는 RMSE(root mean square error), MAE(mean absolute error) 및 R(correlation Coefficient)를 통해 선정하였고, 1-6개월의 선행예보 시간을 갖고 가뭄을 전망하였다. 그리고 SPI를 이용하여, 마코프 연쇄(Markov chain) 및 대수선형모델(log-linear model)을 적용하여 SPI기반 가뭄예측의 정확도를 검증하였으며, 터키의 아나톨리아(Anatolia) 지역을 대상으로 뉴로퍼지모델(Neuro-Fuzzy)을 적용하여 1964-2006년 기간의 월평균 강수량과 SPI를 바탕으로 가뭄을 예측하였다. 가뭄 빈도와 패턴이 불규칙적으로 변하며 지역별 강수량의 양극화가 심화됨에 따라 가뭄예측의 정확도를 높여야 하는 요구가 커지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 복잡하고 비선형성으로 이루어진 가뭄 패턴을 기상학적 가뭄의 정도를 나타내는 표준강수증발지수(SPEI, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)인 월SPEI와 일SPEI를 기계학습모델에 적용하여 예측개선 모형을 개발하고자 한다.

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A ground condition prediction ahead of tunnel face utilizing time series analysis of shield TBM data in soil tunnel (토사터널의 쉴드 TBM 데이터 시계열 분석을 통한 막장 전방 예측 연구)

  • Jung, Jee-Hee;Kim, Byung-Kyu;Chung, Heeyoung;Kim, Hae-Mahn;Lee, In-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.227-242
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    • 2019
  • This paper presents a method to predict ground types ahead of a tunnel face utilizing operational data of the earth pressure-balanced (EPB) shield tunnel boring machine (TBM) when running through soil ground. The time series analysis model which was applicable to predict the mixed ground composed of soils and rocks was modified to be applicable to soil tunnels. Using the modified model, the feasibility on the choice of the soil conditioning materials dependent upon soil types was studied. To do this, a self-organizing map (SOM) clustering was performed. Firstly, it was confirmed that the ground types should be classified based on the percentage of 35% passing through the #200 sieve. Then, the possibility of predicting the ground types by employing the modified model, in which the TBM operational data were analyzed, was studied. The efficacy of the modified model is demonstrated by its 98% accuracy in predicting ground types ten rings ahead of the tunnel face. Especially, the average prediction accuracy was approximately 93% in areas where ground type variations occur.

The Effect of the Reduction in the Interest Rate Due to COVID-19 on the Transaction Prices and the Rental Prices of the House

  • KIM, Ju-Hwan;LEE, Sang-Ho
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.11 no.8
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study uses 'Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model' to predict the impact of a sharp drop in the base rate due to COVID-19 at the present time when government policies for stabilizing house prices are in progress. The purpose of this study is to predict implications for the direction of the government's house policy by predicting changes in house transaction prices and house rental prices after a sharp cut in the base rate. Research design, data, and methodology: The ARIMA intervention model can build a model without additional information with just one time series. Therefore, it is a time-series analysis method frequently used for short-term prediction. After the subprime mortgage, which had shocked since the global financial crisis in April 2007, the bank's interest rate in 2020 is set at a time point close to zero at 0.75%. After that, the model was estimated using the interest rate fluctuations for the Bank of Korea base interest rate, the house transaction price index, and the house rental price index as event variables. Results: In predicting the change in house transaction price due to interest rate intervention, the house transaction price index due to the fall in interest rates was predicted to change after 3 months. As a result, it was 102.47 in April 2020, 102.87 in May 2020, and 103.21 in June 2020. It was expected to rise in the short term. In forecasting the change in house rental price due to interest rate intervention, the house rental price index due to the drop in interest rate was predicted to change after 3 months. As a result, it was 97.76 in April 2020, 97.85 in May 2020, and 97.97 in June 2020. It was expected to rise in the short term. Conclusions: If low interest rates continue to stimulate the contracted economy caused by COVID-19, it seems that there is ample room for house transaction and rental prices to rise amid low growth. Therefore, In order to stabilize the house price due to the low interest rate situation, it is considered that additional measures are needed to suppress speculative demand.

Prediction Model of User Physical Activity using Data Characteristics-based Long Short-term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks

  • Kim, Joo-Chang;Chung, Kyungyong
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.2060-2077
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    • 2019
  • Recently, mobile healthcare services have attracted significant attention because of the emerging development and supply of diverse wearable devices. Smartwatches and health bands are the most common type of mobile-based wearable devices and their market size is increasing considerably. However, simple value comparisons based on accumulated data have revealed certain problems, such as the standardized nature of health management and the lack of personalized health management service models. The convergence of information technology (IT) and biotechnology (BT) has shifted the medical paradigm from continuous health management and disease prevention to the development of a system that can be used to provide ground-based medical services regardless of the user's location. Moreover, the IT-BT convergence has necessitated the development of lifestyle improvement models and services that utilize big data analysis and machine learning to provide mobile healthcare-based personal health management and disease prevention information. Users' health data, which are specific as they change over time, are collected by different means according to the users' lifestyle and surrounding circumstances. In this paper, we propose a prediction model of user physical activity that uses data characteristics-based long short-term memory (DC-LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNNs). To provide personalized services, the characteristics and surrounding circumstances of data collectable from mobile host devices were considered in the selection of variables for the model. The data characteristics considered were ease of collection, which represents whether or not variables are collectable, and frequency of occurrence, which represents whether or not changes made to input values constitute significant variables in terms of activity. The variables selected for providing personalized services were activity, weather, temperature, mean daily temperature, humidity, UV, fine dust, asthma and lung disease probability index, skin disease probability index, cadence, travel distance, mean heart rate, and sleep hours. The selected variables were classified according to the data characteristics. To predict activity, an LSTM RNN was built that uses the classified variables as input data and learns the dynamic characteristics of time series data. LSTM RNNs resolve the vanishing gradient problem that occurs in existing RNNs. They are classified into three different types according to data characteristics and constructed through connections among the LSTMs. The constructed neural network learns training data and predicts user activity. To evaluate the proposed model, the root mean square error (RMSE) was used in the performance evaluation of the user physical activity prediction method for which an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, a convolutional neural network (CNN), and an RNN were used. The results show that the proposed DC-LSTM RNN method yields an excellent mean RMSE value of 0.616. The proposed method is used for predicting significant activity considering the surrounding circumstances and user status utilizing the existing standardized activity prediction services. It can also be used to predict user physical activity and provide personalized healthcare based on the data collectable from mobile host devices.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.