• 국제지역연구
• /
• 제15권2호
• /
• pp.101-123
• /
• 2011

본 연구는 한국, 미국, 및 일본간의 상호무역에서 요소가격균등화가 성립되는가를 ARDL모형에 의한 bounds test로 분석하여 요소가격균등화(factor price equalization, FPE)의 동일성(equality)과 수렴성(convergence)을 검정하려는 시도이다. 실증분석결과에 의하면 국제화가 심화됨에 따라 국가간 무역에서 시현될 가능성이 높아진 요소가격균등화는 무역규모에 있어서 상대적으로 대국인 미국이나 일본보다는 한국과 같은 소국에서 나타나며, 실질변수 보다는 명목변수를 통한 조정과정이 용이한 것으로 분석되었다. 그리고 국가간에 노동이나 자본과 같은 생산요소가 직접적으로 이동하는 단기적인 효과가 요소가격균등화에 미치는 영향은 미미한 것으로 분석되어 요소가격균등화가 장기적인 경제현상임을 알 수 있다. 따라서 우리나라의 경우 교역비중이 높은 미국, 일본, 중국, 및 EU 등과의 무역정책과 기타 국가와의 무역정책은 선별적으로 수립해야 하고, 또한 보다 장기적인 차원에서 시행하여야 할 것이다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권9호
• /
• pp.1-9
• /
• 2021

This study aimed to investigate the existence of the Feldstein-Horioka (1980) puzzle in international macroeconomics by applying the conditional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the long-run relationship between national savings and investments in Thailand and China. The input of this study relied on annual national savings and investments as a fraction of GDP during 1980-2019 which was collected from China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Thailand National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC). Hypothetically, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests were applied to test the stationary properties and to investigate the integration level of selected time series. The empirical results, confirmed by cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum square (CUSUMSQ), maintained no serial correlation and structural break problems. The finding of this study suggested that the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Thailand did not exist significantly. Thailand's national savings and investments nexus was independent, following the classic economic idea that financial liberalization, or perfect capital mobility, allowed national savings and investments to flow freely to countries with better interest rates. Whereas, a strong significant correlation was found in the case of China during the fixed exchange rate regime switching in 1994 and post WTO participation after 2001-2019.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
• /
• 제12권1호
• /
• pp.30-36
• /
• 2018

This study investigates the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness, population density, and carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) emissions in Bangladesh for the period of 1975 to 2013. It applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration for establishing the existence of a long-run relationship. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long-run when $CO_2$ emissions is the dependent variable. The results indicate that energy consumption has statistically significant positive effect on $CO_2$ emissions both in the short-run and long-run. The effect of population density is significant in long-run, but not in short-run. The estimated coefficients for economic growth and trade liberalization are negative and insignificant both in short-run and long-run. The paper suggests that the government of Bangladesh should undertake the policy actions to develop alternative energy sources which would not emit much $CO_2$.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권1호
• /
• pp.37-46
• /
• 2020

The paper examines the dynamic relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on the economic growth of the Philippines from 1995 to 2018 applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, together with Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM). The ARDL model indicated a long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on GDP growth. When the GDP per capita is the dependent variable there is weak cointegration. Also, the Johansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity both on GDP growth and GDP per capita. The VECM concludes a long-run causality running from domestic credit and stock market liquidity to GDP growth. At levels, domestic credit has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. As for stock market liquidity at first lag, has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. With regards to VECM for GDP per capita, domestic credit and stock market liquidity indicates no significant dynamic adjustment to a new equilibrium if a disturbance occurs in the whole system. At levels, the results indicated the presence of short-run causality from stock market liquidity and GDP per capita. The CUSUMSQ plot complements the findings of the CUSUM plot that the estimated models for GDP growth and GDP per capita were stable.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제7권8호
• /
• pp.533-542
• /
• 2020

This study estimates the nature of the relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment in the Philippines over the 2001-2017 period. The paper employed a range of cointegrating regression models, namely, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, Johansen-Juselius (JJ) and Engle-Granger (EG) cointegration models, dynamic OLS, fully modified OLS, and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) estimation techniques. The Granger causality based on error correction model (ECM) was also performed to determine the causal link of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. The ARDL bounds testing approach, Johansen-Juselius (JJ) and Engle-Granger (EG) cointegration models confirmed the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. The long-run coefficients from JJ and dynamic OLS show significant long-run and positive relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. While results of the long-run coefficients from fully modified OLS and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) found that only entrepreneurship has significant and positive relationship with youth unemployment in the long-run. The Granger causality based on error correction model (ECM) estimates show evidence of long-run causal relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. In the short-run, increases in entrepreneurship and business confidence causes youth unemployment to decrease.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제6권1호
• /
• pp.71-81
• /
• 2019

The objective of the study is to examine the impact of financial development and foreign remittances on poverty and income inequality in the context of Pakistan. The study used ARDL-Bounds testing approach for robust inferences. The results show that in the short-run, remittances increases poverty and income inequality, which further translated into its long-run impact. The result confirmed the inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita income and income inequality, while the second order coefficient of per capita income substantially decline poverty incidence in a country. In the long-run, the results disappeared and it's turned into U-shaped relationship between income inequality and country's per capita income. Education largely decreases income inequality both in the short and long-run, however, it increases poverty in the long-run. Unemployment rate substantially damaged the pro-poor growth scenario, as high unemployment rate increases both the poverty rates and income inequality, which suffered poor more than non-poor in a country. Financial development has a positive impact on poverty reduction and income inequality in the short-run. The impact of income inequality on poverty incidence is positive both in the short- and long-run, which need pro-poor growth policies and rationale income distribution in a country.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권5호
• /
• pp.325-334
• /
• 2021

This study aims to investigate whether economic growth is elevated by banking industry development in Jordan. The study adopts time-series econometric methodologies, which comprise the bounds testing approach within the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the conditional causality analysis. Consistent with the assumptions of the adopted methodology, the study utilized annual time-series data for a relatively long period of thirty-nine years, between 1980 and 2018. The empirical results show that Jordan's economic growth is strongly responsive in respect to any changes in banking industry development. Also, the results reveal the harmful impact of rising lending interest rate; as this rate increases, economic growth will decrease. The findings are in line with the conceptual arguments of the supply-leading hypothesis, which confirmed that banking development is considered as one of the main pillars that have stimulating effects on economic growth. The evidence of the current study may provide important implications for policymakers and bankers. Those professionals should work to maintain a stable regulatory system that enhances the banking system function in activating economic growth. Also, a considerable focus should be placed on designing a steady interest rate policy to avoid the inherently undesirable impacts of high-interest rates on the Jordanian economy.