• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.414-414
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• 2022

본 연구는 2022년도 "제주특별자치도 수자원 부존현황 조사 및 분석 사업"의 연구비 지원에 의해수행되었습니다.최근 IPCC 제6차 평가보고서(AR6)에 새롭게 적용된 미래 기후변화 시나리오인 SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)에 따른 제주도 지역의 미래 기후변화를 강수량, 기온, 기준증발산 등을 중심으로 분석하였다. 미래의 기후변화 자료로서 19개의 GCM 모형으로부터 도출된 4개의 SSP 시나리오(SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5)를 활용하였다. 제주도 지역의 3개 기상청 ASOS 지점(제주, 성산, 서귀포)을 대상으로 상세화된 기후변화 자료를 이용하여 지점별 및 지역별 미래 전망을 분석하였다. 기준증발산량은 기온자료만을 이용하는 Thornthwaite 방법을 활용하여 산정하였으며, FAO-56 Penman-Monteith 기준증발산량과의 차이를 최소화하기 위하여 시공간적 보정계수를 적용하였다. 과거기간(1985~2014년)을 기준으로, 미래기간(2021~2095년)을 3개 구간(2021~2045년, 2046~2070년, 2071~2095년)으로 나누어 분석하였다. 제주도 전체에 대한 평균적인 전망은 대부분의 SSP 시나리오에서 강수량, 기온, 기준증발산량 모두 미래 후반기로 갈수록 점차 증가하는 경향을 보였으며, SSP1-2.6 시나리오에서만 기온과 기준증발산량이 미래 전반기(2021~2045년)에는 크게 증가하다가 중반기(2046~2070년)와 후반기(2071~2095년)에는 비교적 일정한 것으로 전망되었다. 과거기간과 비교하여 미래 후반기 SSP5-8.5 시나리오에서 가장 크게 증가하는 것으로 전망되었으며, 강수량은 17%, 기온은 38%, 기준증발산량은 58%까지 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 지점별로는 제주 지점이 다른 2개 지점(성산, 서귀포)에서보다 더 많이 증가할 것으로 전망되었다. 제주 지점의 경우 SSP5-8.5 시나리오에서 연 강수량은 19%, 평균기온은 42%, 기준증발산량은 70%까지 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 증가되는 크기는 강수량은 서귀포, 성산, 제주 지점 순으로 전망되었으며, 기온과 기준증발산량은 반대로 제주, 성산, 서귀포 순으로 증가량이 클 것으로 전망되었다. 그러나 GCM 모형에 따라 전망결과가 다양하게 나타나기 때문에 이에 대한 불확실성을 고려한 미래 대응이 필요하다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.8
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• pp.807-819
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• 2013

This study proposes a new methodology for future water balance projection considering climate change by assigning a weight to each scenario instead of inputting future streamflows based on GCMs into a water balance model directly. K-nearest neighbor algorithm was employed to assign weights and streamflows in non-flood period (October to the following June) was selected as the criterion for assigning weights. GCM-driven precipitation was input to TANK model to simulate future streamflow scenarios and Quantile Mapping was applied to correct bias between GCM hindcast and historical data. Based on these bias-corrected streamflows, different weights were assigned to each streamflow scenarios to calculate water shortage for the projection periods; 2020s (2010~2039), 2050s (2040~2069), and 2080s (2070~2099). As a result by applying the proposed methodology to project water shortage over the Korean Peninsula, average water shortage for 2020s is projected to increase to 10~32% comparing to the basis (1967~2003). In addition, according to getting decreased in streamflows in non-flood period gradually by 2080s, average water shortage for 2080s is projected to increase up to 97% (516.5 million $m^3/yr$) as maximum comparing to the basis. While the existing research on climate change gives radical increase in future water shortage, the results projected by the weighting method shows conservative change. This study has significance in the applicability of water balance projection regarding climate change, keeping the existing framework of national water resources planning and this lessens the confusion for decision-makers in water sectors.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.145-159
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• 2014

This study is to evaluate the future climate change impact on turbidity water and eutrophication for Chungju Lake by using CE-QUAL-W2 reservoir water quality model coupled with SWAT watershed model. The SWAT was calibrated and validated using 11 years (2000~2010) daily streamflow data at three locations and monthly stream water quality data at two locations. The CE-QUAL-W2 was calibrated and validated for 2 years (2008 and 2010) water temperature, suspended solid, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and Chl-a. For the future assessment, the SWAT results were used as boundary conditions for CE-QUAL-W2 model run. To evaluate the future water quality variation in reservoir, the climate data predicted by MM5 RCM(Regional Climate Model) of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B for three periods (2013~2040, 2041~2070 and 2071~2100) were downscaled by Artificial Neural Networks method to consider Typhoon effect. The RCM temperature and precipitation outputs and historical records were used to generate pollutants loading from the watershed. By the future temperature increase, the lake water temperature showed $0.5^{\circ}C$ increase in shallow depth while $-0.9^{\circ}C$ in deep depth. The future annual maximum sediment concentration into the lake from the watershed showed 17% increase in wet years. The future lake residence time above 10 mg/L suspended solids (SS) showed increases of 6 and 17 days in wet and dry years respectively comparing with normal year. The SS occupying rate of the lake also showed increases of 24% and 26% in both wet and dry year respectively. In summary, the future lake turbidity showed longer lasting with high concentration comparing with present behavior. Under the future lake environment by the watershed and within lake, the future maximum Chl-a concentration showed increases of 19 % in wet year and 3% in dry year respectively.