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(사)한국여성발명협회
- The Inventors News
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- no.3
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- pp.2.2-2.2
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- 2002
특허청 APEC 개도국에 예산 지원키로 - 중국, 국내상표와 국외상표에 같은 상표법 적용키로 - 일본서 특허 취득하면 싱가포르서도 간단히 취득 - PCT 국제출원 호주 국제조사료 인상

Kwon, Hyun-Han;Min, Young-Mi;Hameed, Saji N.
- Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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- 2009.05a
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- pp.1147-1151
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- 2009
In this study, we address the problem of producing probability forecasts of summer seasonal rainfall, on the basis of Hindcast experiments from a ensemble of GCMs(cwb, gcps, gdaps, metri, msc_gem, msc_gm2, msc_gm3, msc_sef and ncep). An advanced Hierarchical Bayesian weighting scheme is developed and used to combine nine GCMs seasonal hindcast ensembles. Hindcast period is 23 years from 1981 to 2003. The simplest approach for combining GCM forecasts is to weight each model equally, and this approach is referred to as pooled ensemble. This study proposes a more complex approach which weights the models spatially and seasonally based on past model performance for rainfall. The Bayesian approach to multi-model combination of GCMs determines the relative weights of each GCM with climatology as the prior. The weights are chosen to maximize the likelihood score of the posterior probabilities. The individual GCM ensembles, simple poolings of three and six models, and the optimally combined multimodel ensemble are compared.
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