• 전기학회논문지P
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• 제65권1호
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• pp.31-40
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to dimensionally examine the factors of policy changes by applying the ACMS model to KEPCO's structural reorganization privatization policies and study its implications. As a result of the analysis, among the external variables that affect as a financial source or restriction to advocates, all areas except for the difference in opinion of the people as well as policy decision and effects of other subordinate systems were shown to be in an advantageous condition acting as a financial source to advocates of structural reorganization privatization. On the other hand, advocates affected by the external variables share a certain belief system in which the advocates of privatization share the justification of profitability while the advocates of collectivization share the justification of publicness. In these flows, the announcement of the privatization plan of public enterprises of the committee of planning and budgeting acts as a matter of contact which opens the windows for policy changes, and this window goes through ignition, explosion, and fixation which causes fierce interactions among advocates of both sides. Eventually, in accordance with the contents of excluding electricity(KEPCO) from the list for privatization the window for policy changes has closed and things have changed to a transitional KEPCO privatization policy. Based on this, the first implication is that non-official participants such as the people, social organizations, labor unions, etc. influence policy changes more than they did before. Secondly, in the process of policy changes, there is an order of boundary even in the fierce interactions between each advocate. Thirdly, specific variables can play various roles in complex policy phenomenon. Fourthly, a logical analysis using the ACMS model is possible in Korea as well. Fifthly, as a result of analyzing the change process of the KEPCO structural reorganization privatization policy through the ACMS model, not all matched with the main research results implied by the ACMS model.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.733-744
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• 2000

불확실한 저수지 유입량과 수요량 때문에 최적의 저수지 조작기준은 정량화하기 쉽지 않다. 그렇지만 저수지 조작에 일정 수요를 충족시키면서 모의 발생시킨 유입량 시계열을 반영함으로써 음해 추계적 최적화 접근법을 이용하면 조작기준은 작성 가능하다. 이에 본 연구에서는 한강수계 7개 저수지 계통에 적절하도록 수력발전 최대화를 선형추적으로 모형화하고 최적제어를 이용하여 최적조작을 수행하였다. 이 때 2001년 수도권 용수수요를 만족시키도록 한 최적 조작 모형에는 다지점 마코브 모형에 의해 모의 발생된 유입량 자료가 입력된다. 그리고 최적 결과에 대하여 회구 분석과 통계 분석을 수행하여 월별 조작기준을 작성하고 계절별 저수위별 확률을 제시하였다. 이때 상대적으로 저수용량이 커서 조절능력이 좋은 화천댐, 소양강댐, 충주댐은 저류와 방류의 회귀 관계가 잘 형성되었다. 작성된 조작기준으로 실제 운영 기간동안에 대하여 모의조작을 수행하여 그 효율성을 검증하였다.