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An Algorithm of Short-Term Load Forecasting (단기수요예측 알고리즘)

  • Song Kyung-Bin;Ha Seong-Kwan
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.53 no.10
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    • pp.529-535
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    • 2004
  • Load forecasting is essential in the electricity market for the participants to manage the market efficiently and stably. A wide variety of techniques/algorithms for load forecasting has been reported in many literatures. These techniques are as follows: multiple linear regression, stochastic time series, general exponential smoothing, state space and Kalman filter, knowledge-based expert system approach (fuzzy method and artificial neural network). These techniques have improved the accuracy of the load forecasting. In recent 10 years, many researchers have focused on artificial neural network and fuzzy method for the load forecasting. In this paper, we propose an algorithm of a hybrid load forecasting method using fuzzy linear regression and general exponential smoothing and considering the sensitivities of the temperature. In order to consider the lower load of weekends and Monday than weekdays, fuzzy linear regression method is proposed. The temperature sensitivity is used to improve the accuracy of the load forecasting through the relation of the daily load and temperature. And the normal load of weekdays is easily forecasted by general exponential smoothing method. Test results show that the proposed algorithm improves the accuracy of the load forecasting in 1996.

A Study on the On-Line Fuzzy ULTC Controller Design Based on Multiple Load Center Points (다중 부하중심점에 기반한 온라인 퍼지 ULTC 제어기 설계에 대한 연구)

  • Ko, Yun-Seok
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.55 no.12
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    • pp.514-521
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    • 2006
  • The existing ULTC operation control strategy based on the measured data deteriorates the voltage compensation capability making the efficient corresponding to the load variation difficult by following the fixed load center point voltage. Accordingly, this paper proposes a new on-line fuzzy ULTC controller based on the designed multiple load center points which can improve the voltage compensation capability of ULTC and minimize voltage deviation by moving in real-time the load center point according to the load variation to an adequate position among the multiple load center points designed using the clustering technique. The Max-Min distance technique is adopted as the clustering technique for the decision of multiple load points from measured MTr load current and PTr voltage, and the minimum distance classifier is adopted for the decision of fuzzy output membership function. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed strategy, Visual C++ MFC-based simulation environments is developed. Finally, the superiority the proposed strategy is proved by comparing the fuzzy ULTC operation control results based on multiple load center points with the existing ULTC operation control results based on fixed load center point using the data for three day.

A Study on Modeling of Users a Load Usage Pattern in Home Energy Management System Using a Copula Function and the Application (Copula 함수를 이용한 HEMS 내 전력소비자의 부하 사용패턴 모델링 및 그 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Je-Seok;Kim, Jin-O
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.65 no.1
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    • pp.16-22
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    • 2016
  • This paper addresses the load usage scheduling in the HEMS for residential power consumers. The HEMS would lead the residential users to change their power usage, so as to minimize the cost in response to external information such as a time-varying electricity price, the outside temperature. However, there may be a consumer's inconvenience in the change of the power usage. In order to improve this, it is required to understand the pattern of load usage according to the external information. Therefore, this paper suggests a methodology to model the load usage pattern, which classifies home appliances according to external information affecting the load usage and models the usage pattern for each appliance based on a copula function representing the correlation between variables. The modeled pattern would be reflected as a constraint condition for an optimal load usage scheduling problem in HEMS. To explain an application of the methodology, a case study is performed on an electrical water heater (EWH) and an optimal load usage scheduling for EHW is performed based on the branch-and-bound method. From the case study, it is shown that the load usage pattern can contribute to an efficient power consumption.

Effect of Load Modeling on Low Frequency Current Ripple in Fuel Cell Generation Systems

  • Kim, Jong-Soo;Choe, Gyu-Yeong;Kang, Hyun-Soo;Lee, Byoung-Kuk
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.307-318
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    • 2010
  • In this work, an accurate analysis of low frequency current ripple in residential fuel cell power generation systems is performed based on the proposed residential load model and its unique operation algorithm. Rather than using a constant dc voltage source, a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) model is implemented in this research so that a system-level analysis considering the fuel cell stack, power conditioning system (PCS), and the actual load is possible. Using the attained results, a comparative study regarding the discrepancies of low frequency current ripple between a simple resistor load and a realistic residential load is performed. The data indicate that the low frequency current ripple of the proposed residential load model is increased by more than a factor of two when compared to the low frequency current ripple of a simple resistor load under identical conditions. Theoretical analysis, simulation data, and experimental results are provided, along with a model of the load usage pattern of low frequency current ripples.

Experimental Performance Verification of Load Carrying Capacity Algorithm of Bridges using Ambient Vibration (상시진동을 이용한 교량 내하력 추정 알고리즘의 실험적 성능 검증)

  • Lee, Woo-Sang;Park, Ki-Tae;Han, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2010
  • In this study, it is conducted that the performance verification of the ambient load carrying capacity algorithm using long-term measurement systems of bridges. For this purpose, a steel-box type model bridge is fabricated and the public load carrying capacity of a steel-box model bridge is estimated by conducting the numerical analysis and load test. In addition, we compare the public load carrying capacity with the estimated result of a steel-box model bridge using the ambient load carrying capacity algorithm. By the assessment result, it is shown that the estimated ambient load carrying capacity is the difference of approximately 6.0 percentages as compared with the public load carrying capacity.

A Configuration of DLC(Direct Load Control) Using Internet Communication and Load Control Method (인터넷을 이용한 DLC(Direct Load Control)의 구성 및 부하제어기법)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyung;Kim, In-Soo;Kim, Hyeong-Jung;Lee, Seoung-Yoon
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2001.07a
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    • pp.60-64
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    • 2001
  • Recent recovery of the Korean economy drives a rapid increase in utility consumption and requires more stable utility supply and maintenance. However, power location security hardship, reinforcement of international environmental regulation and a huge cost of power plant construction have increased the burden laid on the stable supply. In addition, an efficient and flexible load management is required more than any era since an increment of the rate of increase in cooling load is expected. Therefore, according as the necessity of direct load control for cooling load during the summer in Korea was on the rise, direct load control systems by Internet communication method are constructed at five commercial buildings. Based on practical load control, this study proposes various application modes and communication methods prior to extension diffusion of direct load control hereafter.

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Structural Safety Analysis of a Long Span Cable-stayed Bridge with a Partially Earth Anchored Cable System on Dynamic Loads during Construction (일부타정식 케이블 시스템 장경간 사장교의 시공 중 동적 안전성 분석)

  • Won, Jeong-Hun;Kim, Gyeoung Yun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.104-110
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    • 2016
  • The effect of a partially earth anchored cable system on the structural safety of a long span cable-stayed bridge under seismic and wind loads are examined during construction process. By assuming the FCM (free cantilever method) construction stages with structural vulnerability, a multi-mode spectral analysis and a multi-mode buffeting analysis are performed for specific seismic load and wind load, respectively. Results show that the wind load dominates the structural safety of a cable-stayed bridge during construction. And, the application of a partially earth anchored cable system can enhance structural safety under wind load since the maximum pylon moment in the model with partially earth anchored cable system is reduced by 49% under wind load. In contrast, the maximum pylon moment occurred by seismic load is only decreased by 8%.

Load rating of box girder bridges based on rapid testing using moving loads

  • Hong Zhou;Dong-Hui Yang;Ting-Hua Yi;Hong-Nan Li
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.371-382
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    • 2023
  • Box girder bridges are now widely used in bridge construction, and it is necessary to perform load rating regularly to evaluate the load capacity of box girder bridges. Load testing is a common measure for load rating. However, the bridge must be loaded by many trucks under different loading conditions, which is time-consuming and laborious. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a load rating method for box girder bridges based on rapid moving loads testing. The method includes three steps. First, the quasi-influence factors of the bridge are obtained by crossing the bridge with rapidly moving loads, and the structural modal parameters are simultaneously obtained from the dynamic data to supplement. Second, an objective function is constructed, consisting of the quasi-influence factors at several measurement points and structural modal parameters. The finite element model for load rating is then updated based on the Rosenbrock method. Third, on this basis, a load rating method is proposed using the updated model. The load rating method proposed in this paper can considerably reduce the time duration of traditional static load testing and effectively utilize the dynamic and static properties of box girder bridges to obtain an accurate finite element model. The load capacity obtained based on the updated model can avoid the inconsistency of the evaluation results for the different structural members using the adjustment factors specified in codes.

A Study on Load Control in a Steam Turbine Power Plant using Acquired Data (운전데이터에 의한 증기터빈 발전소의 부하제어에 관한 고찰)

  • Woo, Joo-Hee;Choi, In-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1999.07b
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    • pp.749-751
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    • 1999
  • We acquired operating data in an existing steam turbine power plant using analog control system to investigate operation characteristics. We analyzed a load control logic to develop a digital turbine control system. The load control logic is constituted of load target, load reference, loading rate, load limit and admission mode transfer of valve. The result of this paper is utilized to implement a digital turbine control system.

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A Study on the Quantatitive Voltage Stability Index Considering Load Voltage Characteristics (부하의 전압특성을 고려한 정량적 전압안정성 지표에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Joon-Mo;Lee, Bong-Yong;Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1994.11a
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    • pp.3-5
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    • 1994
  • It is shown that the power flow considering the voltage characteristic of the composite load has some difference comparing with conventional load flow in this paper. When the load flow is used in a study of the static voltage stability, it is necessary to consider the voltage characteristic of load, since the composite load of a typical power system bas constant power, constant current, and constant impedance characteristic. The load is modeled to a polynomial form in here, and used in solving the load flow problem. In this way, the effect which the voltage characteristic of the load has on several voltage collapse proximity indicator based on sensitivities is compared with the conventional load flow, or with another load model having a different voltage characteristic. In this paper, the voltage collapse proximity indicator using the sensitivity of real power for transmission loss is also proposed, and compared with other indicators.

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