• Title/Summary/Keyword: A Value for Return Period

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Estimation of Extreme Tide for Risk Analysis of Marine Salvage in the Namhae (southern sea of Korea) (한국 남해의 구난환경 위험성 분석을 위한 극치 조석 산정)

  • Lee Moon-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.12 no.1 s.24
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    • pp.33-38
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    • 2006
  • In marine salvage, extreme tide heights and tidal currents are necessary to anchor an accidental ship. In order to meet this requirement, a simple scheme was developed which yields the spatial informations on the extreme tide from the distribution of approximate highest astronomical tide heights using a relationship between extreme and highest astronomical tides at the standard port. This method is the inference method based on horizontally homogeneity of tide. This scheme was applied to estimate extreme tide heights and tidal currents in the Namhae (southern sea of Korea). The highest astronomical tide heights are computed by amplitude of four major constituents (M2, S2, K1, O1 tide). The estimated extreme tide heights are ranged from 70 to 260 cm for return period 50 years and from 80 to 270cm for return period 100 years, respectively. For return period 100 years, extreme tidal currents show value of 1.55 times as strong as those of normal state.

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The Estimation of Compensation for Revoking a License for Fishery Business and Appropriate Discount Rate (어업권 취소에 대한 손실보상액 추정과 이자율)

  • Jung, Hyung-Chan;Chung, Man-Hwa
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2013
  • We investigate the appropriateness of the fixed 12% discount rate to be used in estimating the amount of compensation for revoking a license for fishery business by the Enforcement Decree of Fisheries Act in Korea. We also suggest the appropriate discount rate fully reflecting the change of market interest rate in the Korean financial market. The capital asset pricing model, or, CAPM is the best known model of risk and return, and is widely used to estimate the expected rate of return for the risky projects. Even though the CAPM implies that the discount rate or the expected rate of return should change as the related market factors do, the discount rate used to estimate compensation for revoking a license for fishery business remains to be the same 12% rate for the last 15 years by law. During this period, however, the yield to maturity for the 5-year government bonds in Korea has dramatically changed from about 12% to less than 3%. In order to provide the fair compensation for the damages against the coastal fisheries and evaluate the intrinsic value of fishery resources in the coastal areas, we suggest that the appropriate discount rate should be determined by the yield to maturity of the government bonds with 5-year maturity, instead of the current fixed 12% interest rate.

Numerical Simulation for Estimating Fish Shelter at the Downstream of Gumi Weir (수리구조물 하류에서 어류의 피난처 해석을 위한 수치모의 (구미보를 중심으로))

  • Cho, Hyoung Jin;Jang, Chang-Lae
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.8-18
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    • 2014
  • This study analyzes characteristics of flow using 3 dimensional numerical model, Delft3D, at the downstream of hydraulic structure. And fish shelters are suggested by analyzing them in flood time. A hydraulic structure changes flow conveyance, water depth and velocity affecting the activity of the fish. Flow depth decreases and velocity is fast near the left bank at the downstream of Gumi weir because of the concentration of flow due to it. Therefore, fish shelters are generated near the right bank of it. As a result of vertical velocity distribution which indicates the range of fish activity, maximum value are 0.0043 m/s in 30-year of return period of flood 0.0052 m/s in 50 year flood, 0.0046 m/s in 80-year of return period of flood, and 0.0039 m/s in 100-year of return period of flood. As the discharge increases, the areas of fish shelters decreases because depth and turbulent energy increase according to increases discharge. The estimated areas of fish shelters near the right bank decrease from 61.5% in 30-year of return period of flood to 39.0% 100-year of return period of flood. Therefore, the constructed hydraulic structures affect fish shelters.

Economic Evaluation of Early Detection System for Warranty Issues (품질보증 이슈 조기감지 시스템의 경제성 평가)

  • Jung, Sung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2012
  • An early detection system for warranty issues periodically collects customers' claim data and automatically reports alarms about emerging issues based on statistical algorithms. It helps companies to reduce an issue definition time and save the handling cost of warranty claims. This paper provides an evaluation framework to validate the economic effect of an early detection system project. For this purpose, we present economical index of a project with explicit formulas such as ROI(return on investment), PP(payback period), NPV(net present value), PI(profitability index) and IRR(internal rate of return) and analyze the sensitivities of the index according to the variation of project input parameters. The proposed analysis framework is expected to be used for evaluating economic values of various system integration projects.

A Study on Characteristics of Climate Variability and Changes in Weather Indexes in Busan Since 1904 (1904년 이래의 부산 기후 변동성 및 생활기상지수들의 기후변화 특성 연구)

  • Ha-Eun Jeon;Kyung-Ja Ha;Hye-Ryeom Kim
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2023
  • Holding the longest observation data from April 1904, Busan is one of the essential points to understand the climate variability of the Korean Peninsula without missing data since implementing the modern weather observation of the South Korea. Busan is featured by coastal areas and affected by various climate factors and fluctuations. This study aims to investigate climate variability and changes in climatic variables, extremes, and several weather indexes. The statistically significant change points in daily mean rainfall intensity and temperature were found in 1964 and 1965. Based on the change point detection, 117 years were divided into two periods for daily mean rainfall intensity and temperature, respectively. In the long-term temperature analysis of Busan, the increasing trend of the daily maximum temperature during the period of 1965~2021 was larger than the daily mean temperature and the daily minimum temperature. Applying Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, daily maximum temperature is largely affected by the decadal variability compared to the daily mean and minimum temperature. In addition, the trend of daily precipitation intensity from 1964~2021 shows a value of about 0.50 mm day-1, suggesting that the rainfall intensity has increased compared to the preceding period. The results in extremes analysis demonstrate that return values of both extreme temperatures and precipitation show higher values in the latter than in the former period, indicating that the intensity of the current extreme phenomenon increases. For Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (effective humidity), increasing (decreasing) trend is significant in Busan with the second (third)-largest change among four stations.

Study on the Control System Based on Results Measurement (업적기준 통제시스템에 관한 연구)

  • 정신작;손병기
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.85-117
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    • 1997
  • This paper is focused on management control system. From a management control perspective, strategies should be viewed as useful, but not absolutely necessary, guides to the proper design of an MCS. When strategies are formulated more clearly, more control alternatives become feasible and it becomes easier to implement each form of management control effectively. The common and important category of controls are action controls, personnel and cultural controls, and results controls. Action controls involves ensuring that employees perform(or do not perform) certain actions that are known to be beneficial(or harmful) to the organization. Personnel and cultural controls take steps to ensure that employees will control each others' behaviors. Results controls involve rewarding individuals(and sometimes groups of individuals) for generating good outcomes or punishing them for poor outcomes. The results controls of ROI-type measure cause to make managers excessively short- term oriented, or myopic. When managers' orientations to the short - term become excessive -when the management are more concerned with short-term profit than entity value-the managers are said to be myopic. We car, solve myopic problem by introducing AR(abnormal return), near-perfect indicators of value creation. The results - control ideal would be to hold all employees accountable for the wealth they individually create(or destroy) for the owners of the entities in which they work. This ideal is approachable for top management of publicly traded corporations because for these organizations, the wealth created(returns to shareholders) can be measured directly for any period(such as a year, a quarter, or a month) as the measurement period pin(or minus) the change in the market value of the stock.

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Smart Beta Strategies based on the Quality Indices (퀄리티 지수를 이용한 스마트 베타 전략)

  • Ohk, Ki Yool;Lee, Minkyu
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2018
  • Recently, in the asset management industry, the smart beta strategy, which has an intermediate nature between passive and active strategies, is attracting attention. In this smart beta strategy, value, momentum, low volatility, and quality index are widely used. In this study, we analyzed the quality index which is not clear and complicated to calculate. According to the MSCI methodology, the quality index was calculated using three variables: return on equity, debt to equity, and earnings variability. In addition, we use the index using only return on equity variable, the index using only two variables of return on equity and debt to equity, and the KOSPI index as comparison targets for the quality index. In order to evaluate the performance of the indices used in the analysis, the arithmetic mean return, the coefficient of variation, and the geometric mean return were used. In addition, Fama and French (1993) model, which is widely used in related studies, was used as a pricing model to test whether abnormal returns in each index are occurring. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, in all period analysis, quality index was the best in terms of holding period returns. Second, the quality index performed best in the currency crisis and the global financial crisis. Third, abnormal returns were not found in all indices before the global financial crisis. Fourth, in the period after the global financial crisis, the quality index has the highest abnormal return.

Evaluating the Investment in the Malaysian Construction Sector in the Long-run Using the Modified Internal Rate of Return: A Markov Chain Approach

  • SARSOUR, Wajeeh Mustafa;SABRI, Shamsul Rijal Muhammad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.8
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    • pp.281-287
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    • 2020
  • In capital budgeting practices, investment project evaluations based on the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) represent the traditional evaluation techniques. Compared with the traditional methods, the modified internal rate of return (MIRR) gives the opportunity to evaluate an investment in certain projet, while taking the changes in cash flows over time and issuing shares such as dividing shares, bonuses, and dividend for each end of the investment year into account. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate an investment in the Malaysian construction sector utilizing financial data for 39 public listed companies operating in the Malaysian construction sector over the period from Jan 1, 2007, to December 30, 2018, based on the MIRR method. Stochastic was studied in this study to estimate the estimated probability by applying the Markov chain model to the MIRR method where the transition matrix has two possible movements of either Good (G) or Bad (B). it is found that the long-run probability of getting a good investment is higher than the probability of getting a bad investment in the long-run, where were the probabilities of good and bad are 0.5119, 0.4881, respectively. Hence, investment in the Malaysian construction sector is recommended.

A Study on Unfolding Asymmetric Volatility: A Case Study of National Stock Exchange in India

  • SAMINENI, Ravi Kumar;PUPPALA, Raja Babu;KULAPATHI, Syamsundar;MADAPATHI, Shiva Kumar
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.857-861
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    • 2021
  • The study aims to find the asymmetric effect in National Stock Exchange in which the Nifty50 is considered as proxy for NSE. A return can be stated as the change in value of a security over a certain time period. Volatility is the rate of change in security value. It is an arithmetical assessment of the dispersion of yields of security prices. Stock prices are extremely unpredictable and make the investment in equities risky. Predicting volatility and modeling are the most profuse areas to explore. The current study describes the association between two variables, namely, stock yields and volatility in equity market in India. The volatility is measured by employing asymmetric GARCH technique, i.e., the EGARCH (1,1) tool, which was used in building the study. The closing prices of Nifty on day-to-day basis were used for analysis from the period 2011 to 2020 with 2,478 observations in the study. The model arrests the lopsided volatility during the mentioned period. The outcome of asymmetric GARCH model revealed the subsistence of leverage effect in the index and confirms the impact of conditional variance as well. Furthermore, the EGARCH technique was evidenced to be apt in seizure of unsymmetrical volatility.

A Strategy of Technology Transfer Based on M&A in Small & Venture Business (중소·벤처기업의 M&A를 이용한 기술이전 전략)

  • Song, Myung Kyu;Jeong, Hyesoon;Lim, Dae-Hyeon
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.39-56
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    • 2004
  • Mergers and Acquisitions(M&A) have long played an important role in the growth of firm. M&A has been considered a effective strategy for Korean government to restructure industry. Previous studies provided mixed results on the synergy effect of M&A This study provides investigation on 39 mergers occurred over the sample period from 2000 to 2001. In this study, event study methodology arc used to calculate abnormal return(AR) and cumulative abnormal return(CAR) based on mean-adjusted model. The testing period of this study from date -30 through date +30, where date zero is the date of the first public announcement of the merger. The empirical results in this study can be summarized as follows. First, the return rates of KOSDAQ registered firms with M&A appears higher than that of KSE listed firms. This means that public announcement of M&A is more influential on stock price for KOSDAQ registered firms than KSE listed firms. Second, The difference between actual merging price and fair value is significant in KSE listed firms and KOSDAQ registered firms. This means that the investors take M&A of KOSDAQ registered firms as a good news. Third, the impact on the market prices of merging firms take place after the first public announcement of the merger in KSE registered firms. But the impact on the market prices take place not only merging firms but also merged firms in KOSDAQ registered firms. This result shows that the investors recognize a M&A is a strategy of technology transfer in small & venture business.

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