• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.59-65
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• 2015

Background: After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. Methods: To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. Results: The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. Conclusion: A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.9
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• pp.5-11
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• 2015

Purpose - The purpose of this research is to provide insights that can be used for deliberate decision making around challenging big data investments by measuring the economic value of such big data implementations. Research design, data, and methodology - We perform empirical research through an event study. To this end, we measure actual abnormal returns of companies that are triggered by their investment announcements in big data, or firm size information, during the three-year research period. The research period targets a timeframe after the introduction of big data at Korean firms listed on the Korea stock markets. Results - Our empirical findings discover that on the event day and the day after, the abnormal returns are significantly positive. In addition, our further examination of firm size impacts on the abnormal returns does not show any evidence of an effect. Conclusions - Our research suggests that an event study can be useful as an alternative means to measure the return on investment (ROI) for big data in order to lessen the difficulties or decision making around big data investments.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.107-114
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• 2020

Extreme value distributions have often been used for the analysis (e.g., prediction of return level) of data which are observed from natural disaster. By the extreme value theory, the block maxima asymptotically follow the generalized extreme value distribution as sample size increases; however, this may not hold in a small sample case. For solving this problem, this paper proposes the use of a log-logistic (LLG) distribution whose validity is evaluated through goodness-of-fit test and model selection. The proposed method is illustrated with data from annual maximum earthquake magnitudes of China. Here, we present the predicted return level and confidence interval according to each return period using LLG distribution.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.41
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• pp.43-67
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• 2000

The main source in financing the National Pension benefits is the contribution raised from the insured's earnings. So, Most of the insured take a great interest in the questions of what return on the payment of contribution National Pension benefits provide and whether there be the difference in return according to earnings level. The Purpose of this study is to assess money's worth of National Pension and to answer the above questions. There are two basic types of money worth analysis, empirical and hopothetical. This study basically belongs to the former in terms that it is based on actual earnings and insured term. For performing money's worth analysis, four different measures which are referred as the "break-even period", the "benefit/tax ratio", the "net lifetime transfer", the "internal rate of return" are used and they all involve the way in which the relationship between the present value of contributions and the present values of benefit is present. The results which evaluate average money's worth of accrued rights before 1999 are le as follows. Break-even period is about 43 months, benefit/tax ratio being 4.9, net lifetime transfers being about 37 mil1ion won, internal rate of return being 33.2%. This verifies that money' worth of National Pension is much higher than actuarially fair. In the mean while, money' worth is proved to be very different according to earnings level. The progressivity relationship between earnings level and rate of return is found in all measures but net lifetime transfer.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.135-164
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• 2005

We analyze trade and balance records of 10,000 stock investment accounts of individual investors for the period of 1998 to 2003. Individual investors em an annual gross return of 12.3% while the KOSPI and the value weighted composite including KOSDAQ stocks yield 13.6% and 9.7% respectively during the same period. Net return performance is 8.3%, a drop of 5.3% mainly due to heavy trading. Individual investors' annual turnover amounts to over 270 percent. In an analysis of groups formed on the month's end position value, the performance of the top quintile is found comparable to the market while the rest yield significantly lower risk-adjusted returns than the market. We also find evidence rejecting the rational expectation model while supporting the overconfidence hypothesis which states overconfidence leads to a higher level of trading, resulting in poor performance. Individuals tilt their stock investment toward high-beta, small, and value stocks.

• Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.173-182
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• 1997

This study presents the results observed in the change in blood components of ten female students of “K” university's physical Education Department during submaximal exercise, relaxation and recovery periods. 1. After ecercise, the WBC value is higher than in relaxation time. Also within thirty minutes of the relaxation period it does not return to the normal range. 2. After exercise, the RBC value is higher than during relaxation time. Also in the recovery period, within 30 minutes it returns to the normal range. 3. After exercise. the RCT value is higher than during relaxation time. Also in the 30 minutes recovery period it returns to the normal range of relaxation. 4. After exercise, the Hb value is higher than during relaxation time. It rises slowly after exercise and returns to the relaxation range in the 30 minutes recovery period. 5. After exercise and in 10 minutes of the recovery period, the value of Glucose is lower than during relaxation time. It returns to the relaxation range in 30 minutes of the recovery period. 6. After exercise the value of protein is higher than during relaxation time. It returns to the relaxation range within ten to thirty minutes of the recovery period.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.137-142
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• 2019

There are two methods for evaluating two or more mutually exclusive projects. One is a total investment approach and the other is an incremental investment approach. The former can rank projects by the criterion of the net present value, but the latter can't do it. An incremental investment approach is only possible when all pairwise alternatives are compared. Thus an incremental investment approach is superior in ranking them over an incremental investment approach. To do so, a principle of comparison must be established. Comparisons of profitability are reasonable when operating the same amount of investment over the same period of time. One principle is that all projects are invested in the largest of the projects. Another principle is that all projects are invested during the longest project life of the projects. In this paper, even if the principle is followed, it will be shown that the external rate of return fails to rank them. However, the productive rate of return criterion would prove to be able to rank them like the net present value standard, provided that the principle of comparison is kept. In addition, rate of returns can be assessed so that all mutually exclusive projects can be compared at once, such as on the criterion of the net present value. That is, it can be also compared with many other returns, such as the profit rates on financial investments or real investments.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.602-607
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• 2013

Financial risks associated with capital investments are often measured with different feasibility indicators such as the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR), the payback period (PBP), and the benefit-cost ratio (BCR). This paper aims at demonstrating practical applications of probabilistic feasibility analysis techniques for an integrated feasibility evaluation of the IRR and PBP. The IRR and PBP are concurrently analyzed in order to measure the profitability and liquidity, respectively, of a cash flow. The cash flow data of a real wind turbine project is used in the study. The presented approach consists of two phases. First, two newly reported analysis techniques are used to carry out a series of what-if analyses for the IRR and PBP. Second, the relationship between the IRR and PBP is identified using Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrate that the integrated feasibility evaluation of stochastic cash flows becomes a more viable option with the aide of newly developed probabilistic analysis techniques. It is also shown that the relationship between the IRR and PBP for the wind turbine project can be used as a predictive model for the actual IRR at the end of the service life based on the actual PBP of the project early in the service life.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.47 no.1
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• pp.47-57
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• 2019

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the Seoul area by predicting unhealthy days due to PM2.5 and comparing the regional differences. Methods: The extreme value theory is adopted to model and compare the PM2.5 concentration in each region, and each best model is selected through the goodness of fitness test. The maximum likelihood estimation technique is applied to estimate the parameters of each distribution, and the fitness of each model is measured by the mean absolute deviation. The selected model is used to estimate the number of unhealthy days (above $75{\mu}g/m^3$ PM2.5 concentrations) in each region, with which the actual number of unhealthy days are compared. In addition, the level of PM2.5 concentration in each region is analyzed by calculating the return levels for periods of 6 months, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. Results: The Mapo (MP) area revealed the most unhealthy days, followed by Gwanak (GW) and Yangcheon (YC). On the contrary, the number of unhealthy days was low in Seodaemun (SDM), Songpa (SP) and Gangbuk (GB) areas. The return level of PM2.5 was high in Gangnam (GN), Dongjak (DJ) and YC. It will be necessary to prepare for PM2.5 than other regions. On the contrary, Gangbuk (GB), Nowon (NW) and Seodaemun (SDM) showed relatively low return levels for PM2.5. However, in most of the regions of Seoul, PM25 is generated at a very poor level ($75{\mu}g/m^3$) every 6months period, and more than $100{\mu}g/m^3$ PM2.5 occur every 3 years period. Most areas in Seoul require more systematic management of PM2.5. Conclusion: In this paper, accurate prediction and analysis of high concentration of PM2.5 were attempted. The results of this research could provide the basis for the Seoul Metropolitan Government to establish policies for reducing PM2.5 and measuring its effects.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.85-92
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• 2023

Unlike a completed building, a building under construction may be at risk in terms of safety if a load exceeds the value considered in the design stage owing to various factors, such as a load action different from that in the design stage and insufficient concrete strength. In addition, if an earthquake occurs in a building under construction, greater damage may occur. Therefore, this study studied example models with various sizes of 5, 15, 25, and 60 floors for typical building types and analyzed the effects of seismic load on buildings under construction using construction-stage models according to frame completeness. Because the construction period of the building is much shorter than the period of use after completion, applying same earthquake loads as the design stage to buildings under construction may be excessive. Therefore, earthquakes with a return period of 50 to 2,400 years were applied to the construction stage model to review the seismic loads and analyze the structural performances of the members. Thus, we reviewed whether a load exceeding that of the design stage was applied and the return period level of the earthquake that could ensure structural safety. In addition, assuming the construction period of each example model, the earthquake return period according to the construction period was selected, and the design appropriateness with the selected return period was checked.