• Title/Summary/Keyword: A Posteriori Prediction Error

Search Result 3, Processing Time 0.017 seconds

A Minimum-Error-Rate Training Algorithm for Pattern Classifiers and Its Application to the Predictive Neural Network Models (패턴분류기를 위한 최소오차율 학습알고리즘과 예측신경회로망모델에의 적용)

  • 나경민;임재열;안수길
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics B
    • /
    • v.31B no.12
    • /
    • pp.108-115
    • /
    • 1994
  • Most pattern classifiers have been designed based on the ML (Maximum Likelihood) training algorithm which is simple and relatively powerful. The ML training is an efficient algorithm to individually estimate the model parameters of each class under the assumption that all class models in a classifier are statistically independent. That assumption, however, is not valid in many real situations, which degrades the performance of the classifier. In this paper, we propose a minimum-error-rate training algorithm based on the MAP (Maximum a Posteriori) approach. The algorithm regards the normalized outputs of the classifier as estimates of the a posteriori probability, and tries to maximize those estimates. According to Bayes decision theory, the proposed algorithm satisfies the condition of minimum-error-rate classificatin. We apply this algorithm to NPM (Neural Prediction Model) for speech recognition, and derive new disrminative training algorithms. Experimental results on ten Korean digits recognition have shown the reduction of 37.5% of the number of recognition errors.

  • PDF

A Study on the Tool Fracture Detection Algorithm Using System Identification (시스템인식을 이용한 공구파손검출 알고리듬에 관한 연구)

  • Sa, Seung-Yun;Yu, Eun-Lee;Ryu, Bong-Hwan
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
    • /
    • v.21 no.6
    • /
    • pp.988-994
    • /
    • 1997
  • The demands for robotic and automatic system are continually increasing in manufacturing fields. There have been many studies to monitor and predict the system, but they have mainly focused upon measuring cutting force, and current of motor spindle, and upon using acoustic sensor, etc. In this study, digital image of time series sequence was acquired by taking advantage of optical technique. Mean square error was obtained from it and was available for useful observation data. The parameter was estimated using PAA(parameter adaptation algorithm) from observation data. AR(auto regressive) model was selected for system model and fifth order was decided according to parameter estimation. Uncorrelation test was also carried out to verify convergence of parameter. Through the proceedings, it was found that there was a system stability.

Prospective validation of a novel dosing scheme for intravenous busulfan in adult patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

  • Cho, Sang-Heon;Lee, Jung-Hee;Lim, Hyeong-Seok;Lee, Kyoo-Hyung;Kim, Dae-Young;Choe, Sangmin;Bae, Kyun-Seop;Lee, Je-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Physiology and Pharmacology
    • /
    • v.20 no.3
    • /
    • pp.245-251
    • /
    • 2016
  • The objective of this study was to externally validate a new dosing scheme for busulfan. Thirty-seven adult patients who received busulfan as conditioning therapy for hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT) participated in this prospective study. Patients were randomized to receive intravenous busulfan, either as the conventional dosage (3.2 mg/kg daily) or according to the new dosing scheme based on their actual body weight (ABW) ($23{\times}ABW^{0.5}mg\;daily$) targeting an area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) of $5924{\mu}M{\cdot}min$. Pharmacokinetic profiles were collected using a limited sampling strategy by randomly selecting 2 time points at 3.5, 5, 6, 7 or 22 hours after starting busulfan administration. Using an established population pharmacokinetic model with NONMEM software, busulfan concentrations at the available blood sampling times were predicted from dosage history and demographic data. The predicted and measured concentrations were compared by a visual predictive check (VPC). Maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimators were estimated to calculate the predicted AUC ($AUC_{PRED}$). The accuracy and precision of the $AUC_{PRED}$ values were assessed by calculating the mean prediction error (MPE) and root mean squared prediction error (RMSE), and compared with the target AUC of $5924{\mu}M{\cdot}min$. VPC showed that most data fell within the 95% prediction interval. MPE and RMSE of $AUC_{PRED}$ were -5.8% and 20.6%, respectively, in the conventional dosing group and -2.1% and 14.0%, respectively, in the new dosing scheme group. These findings demonstrated the validity of a new dosing scheme for daily intravenous busulfan used as conditioning therapy for HCT.