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A Study on Forecasting Accuracy Improvement of Case Based Reasoning Approach Using Fuzzy Relation (퍼지 관계를 활용한 사례기반추론 예측 정확성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, In-Ho;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.67-84
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    • 2010
  • In terms of business, forecasting is a work of what is expected to happen in the future to make managerial decisions and plans. Therefore, the accurate forecasting is very important for major managerial decision making and is the basis for making various strategies of business. But it is very difficult to make an unbiased and consistent estimate because of uncertainty and complexity in the future business environment. That is why we should use scientific forecasting model to support business decision making, and make an effort to minimize the model's forecasting error which is difference between observation and estimator. Nevertheless, minimizing the error is not an easy task. Case-based reasoning is a problem solving method that utilizes the past similar case to solve the current problem. To build the successful case-based reasoning models, retrieving the case not only the most similar case but also the most relevant case is very important. To retrieve the similar and relevant case from past cases, the measurement of similarities between cases is an important key factor. Especially, if the cases contain symbolic data, it is more difficult to measure the distances. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of case-based reasoning approach using fuzzy relation and composition. Especially, two methods are adopted to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. One is to deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic(the judgment of sameness between two symbolic data), the other is to deduct the similarity matrix following fuzzy relation and composition. This study is conducted in the following order; data gathering and preprocessing, model building and analysis, validation analysis, conclusion. First, in the progress of data gathering and preprocessing we collect data set including categorical dependent variables. Also, the data set gathered is cross-section data and independent variables of the data set include several qualitative variables expressed symbolic data. The research data consists of many financial ratios and the corresponding bond ratings of Korean companies. The ratings we employ in this study cover all bonds rated by one of the bond rating agencies in Korea. Our total sample includes 1,816 companies whose commercial papers have been rated in the period 1997~2000. Credit grades are defined as outputs and classified into 5 rating categories(A1, A2, A3, B, C) according to credit levels. Second, in the progress of model building and analysis we deduct the similarity matrix following binary logic and fuzzy composition to measure the similarity between cases containing symbolic data. In this process, the used types of fuzzy composition are max-min, max-product, max-average. And then, the analysis is carried out by case-based reasoning approach with the deducted similarity matrix. Third, in the progress of validation analysis we verify the validation of model through McNemar test based on hit ratio. Finally, we draw a conclusion from the study. As a result, the similarity measuring method using fuzzy relation and composition shows good forecasting performance compared to the similarity measuring method using binary logic for similarity measurement between two symbolic data. But the results of the analysis are not statistically significant in forecasting performance among the types of fuzzy composition. The contributions of this study are as follows. We propose another methodology that fuzzy relation and fuzzy composition could be applied for the similarity measurement between two symbolic data. That is the most important factor to build case-based reasoning model.

Influence of Hydrothermal Treatment of Wheat Bran on Phytate-P Content and Performance of Broiler Chickens (수침처리가 밀기울의 피틴태 인 함량과 육계의 생산성에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, B. H.;Paik, I. K.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.229-240
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    • 2003
  • An in vitro test and a broiler feeding trial were conducted to test the effect of hydrothermal treatment of wheat bran on phytate-P degradation and it’s feeding effect on performance of broilers. Hydrothermal treatment of wheat bran was carried out at 55$^{\circ}C$ with pH 5.5 buffer solution. Phytate-P content of wheat bran decreased quadrically as the wheat bran: buffer solution ratio increased from 1:0.5 to 1:5. Phytate-P degradation was not significantly affected by incubation times above 10 min., drying temperature (55$^{\circ}C$, 65$^{\circ}C$ and 75$^{\circ}C$) or pH of the buffer solution (5.5 and 7.0). A feeding trial was conducted with 240 sex separated d-old broiler chickens (Ross$^{\circledR}$). Broilers were randomly housed to 24 cages of 10 birds each. Six cages (3 of each sex) were assigned to 4 treatments: Control-normal level of non-phytate-P (NPP); LP-low NPP treatment which had 0.1% lower NPP than Control; LPWB-LP with wheat bran which provided 475 IU of plant phytase per kg diet; LPHWB-LP with hydrothermally treated wheat bran. Results of the feeding trial showed that broilers in the LP treatment gained significantly less than other treatments in starter period (1-21d) but only male broilers for growing LP gained significantly less than Control in the grower (22-35d) and overall period. There were no significant differences in weight gain among the birds of LPWB, LPHWB and Control. Feed intake during the overall period was not significantly different between LPWB and Control but that of LP was lower than LPHWB and that of LPHWB was lower than Control. Feed/gain ratio was significantly lower in LPHWB and LP than in Control and LPWP. Mortality was highest in LPHWB. Availability of crude fat, crude ash and Ca was significantly lower in LP than other treatments. Availability of P and Zn was higher in LPWB and LPHWB than in Control and LP. Availability of P, Mg and Zn was highest in LPHWP treatment. Excretion of P was significantly lower in low NPP treatments than in Control. Serum Ca level was highest whereas serum P level was lowest in LP. Tibial crude ash content was higher in wheat bran treatments, but lower in LP than Control. However, tibial Ca content was higher in Control and LP than wheat bran treatments. Tibial P content of LP and LPWB was lower than Control. However, tibial content of Fe was highest in LP. It was concluded that wheat bran, a source of plant phytase, could be used in low NPP broiler diets to prevent the depression of performance. Reduction of P excretion can be achieved concomitantly. Hydrothermal treatment of wheat bran was effective in improving utilizability of some minerals but was not effective in improving performance of broilers.

Mammary Performance of First Lactation Bali Cows (Bibos banteng) Fed Grass-Legume Based Diets in Relation to the Role of Glucose

  • Sukarini, I.A.M.;Sastradipradja, Djokowoerjo;Nusada, N.;Mahardika, I.G.;Kiranadi, B.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.615-623
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    • 2001
  • A study of mammary function in relation to glucose metabolism of first lactation Bali cows on grass-legume diets was carried out using 12 primiparous cows (initial BW $263.79{\pm}21.66kg$) for 16 weeks starting immediately post calving. The animals were randomly allocated into 4 dietary treatment groups R1, R2, R3 and R4, receiving from the last 2 months of pregnancy onwards, rations based on a mixture of locally available grass and legume feed ad libitum. On a DM basis R1 contained 70% elephant grass (PP, Penicetum purpureum) plus 30% Gliricidia sepia leaves (GS), R2 was 30% PP plus 25% GS supplemented with 55% Hibiscus tilliacius leaves (HT, defaunating effect), R3 and R4 were 22.5% PP+41.25% GS+11.25% HT+25% concentrate, with R4 supplemented with zinc-diacetate. TDN, CP and zinc contents of the diets were 58.2%, 12.05% and 18.3 mg/kg respectively for R1, 65.05%, 16.9% and 25.6 mg/kg respectively for R2, 66.03%, 16.71% and 29.02 mg/kg respectively for R3 and 66.03%, 16.71% and 60.47 mg/kg respectively for R4. Milk production and body weights were monitored, an energy and protein balance trial conducted, overall glucose kinetics parameters assessed, mammary blood flow (MBF) and metabolite arteriovenous differences (${\Delta}AVs$) measured to get uptake data and mammary performance relationships. Parameters of glucose kinetics at peak lactation or during dry condition were not affected by ration quality. Glucose pool size, space of distribution and flux increased by 61.77, 62.26 and 82.08%, respectively, during lactation compared to the dry period. Mean glucose flux of lactating Bali cows was $5.52mg/min.kgBW^{0.807}$ which resembles the range of values of temperate dairy cows. Calculation showed that glucose requirements for maintenance, milk lactose and fat-glycerol synthesis, and the formation of NADPH reached 461.69 g for a yield of 1 kg/d or equal to 320.62 mg/min, which was less than the average glucose flux of lactating Bali cows of 481.35 mg/min. Mammary blood flow (MBF) values ranged from 56 to 83 l/h for the different treatments and the ratio MBF per kg milk produced improved from av. 1540 l/kg for R1 to av. 967 l/kg for R4 treated cows. Mammary glucose uptake ranged from 6.27 to 12.03 g/h or 120 to 140 g/kg milk. Glucose uptake was mass-wise 2 to 4 times the amount secreted as lactose, which indicated values less than the calculated mammary glucose needs and that little lactose was synthesized. The excess glucose taken-up was used for other metabolic processes. Linear relationships between metabolite ${\Delta}AVs$ and arterial blood plasma concentration [A] showed that in Bali cows triglycerides (TG), phenylalanine (Phe) and tyrosine (Tyr) have high coefficients of determination, i.e. 0.77, 0.81 and 0.69, respectively. For glucose, the relationship is quadratic with an $R^2$ value of 0.49. It was concluded that lactose synthesis was inadequate, which led to a speculation that milk yield could be improved by increased lactose synthesis.

Effects of Ventilation Systems on Interior Environment of the Growing-finishing Pig House in Korea (육성$\cdot$비육돈사 내에서 환기형태별 환경조사 연구)

  • Song J. I.;Yoo Y. H.;Jeong J. W.;Kim T. I.;Choi H. C.;Kang H. S.;Yang C. B.;Lee Y. Y.
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.93-100
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    • 2004
  • An experiment was conducted to establish comparison of ventilation efficiency in an enclosed and conventional growing-finishing pig house. The experimental pigs were in winter and summer. The main results of the experiment are as follows : Then the air from planar slot inlet the pig house flow out through the sidewall outlet operated by exhaust fan(Gl). The second structure has an air input through the circular duct inlet are plated side the juncture of the entering wall and the air into the pig house flow out through the chimney and pit outlet are operated by exhaust fan(G2). Through the air into relay fan the pig house flow out through the curtains in sidewall(G3). Similarly, air comes in through the circular duct inlet are placed the air into the pig house flow out through the curtains in sidewall (G4). Air flow rate on the floor level which is the low part of pen and the living area of pigs in the G2 and G4 system during winter was measured at 0.2 to 0.3 m/s at the 0.5 to 0.6 m/s at the maximum ventilation efficiency. As for the results of detrimental gas(ammonia) concentration ratio analysis, while G2 and G4 system sustained of summer 13.3 $\~$ 16.6 ppm, winter 14.0 $\~$ 14.6 ppm level, Gl and G3 system sustained of summer 14.6 $\~$ 20.3 ppm, winter 20.3 $\~$ 25.0 ppm, and the latter one is lower than that of the G1 and G3 system.

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Effect of Hwangto, Illite, Oligosacharides, Charcoal powder and Chromium picolinate on the Growth Performance and Immunity in Eary Weaned Hanwoo Calves (한우 수송아지에 대한 황토, 일라이트, 올리고당, 활성탄 및 크롬 급여가 성장발육 및 면역기능에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, S.W.;Cho, C.Y.;Kim, J.S.;Ahn, B.S.;Chung, H.Y.;Seo, K.H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.531-540
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    • 2002
  • This study was conducted to examine the effect of Hwangto, Illite, and any other disease resistant materials as dietary supplements on the growth performance and immunity for growing period with 30 Hanwoo male calves weaned 75days in age. Feeding trial was conducted with 6 treatments(five heads/treatment), which were T1(Control), T2(Control + 2% Hwangto), T3(Control + 2% Illite), T4(Control + 0.04% Oligosacharides), T5(Control + 2% Charcoal powder) and T6(Control + 0.1% Chromium picolinate) for 120 days from three to seven months in age. The results obtained are summarized as follows; During the experimental period, average daily gains were 0.82 to 0.92kg, and were high in the order of T3, T6, T4, T5, T2 and T1. Especially the growth rate of calves for growing period was higher in Illite, chromium-picolinate and oligo- sacharides feeding groups than in any other groups. Average daily intakes and intake ratio to body weight of concentrates for 120days were 3.91 to 4.15kg(average 4.03kg) and 3.10 to 3.31% (average 3.21%), respectively. TDN intakes per kilogram gains were 3.20 to 3.57kg(average 3.35kg) and were smaller in the order of T5, T3, T6, T4, T2 and T1, respectively. Density of IgG in serum of calves measured by the IgG SDID Kit was 10.2 to 11.6mg/$m\ell$, and especially increase rate of IgG for experimental period was high in T3 and T5 by 6.9 and 2.8%, respectively. But incidence of disease was not found to be different by treatments. According to the above results it may be concluded that Illite is a sort of clay minerals increased the growth rate, feed efficiency and immunity of early weaned calves for growing period, but was not in unprocessed Hwangto.

Study on the Storage of Chestnut (밤 저장(貯藏)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Yim, Ho;Kim, Choung-Ok;Shin, Dang-Wha;Suh, Kee- Bong
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.170-175
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    • 1980
  • A mass production of chestnut necessiates the development of economic long-term storage method. The main objective of this study was to confirm the technical aspect of the chestnut storage method which was developed by two year project and to review the method of commercial application. The chestnut used for the experiments were separated in brine $(5.5{\sim}6.0^{\circ}\:B{\acute{a}}ume)$ into matured and unmatured lots and fumigated with $CS_2$ at a 5 $lb/27\;m^3$ level for $25{\sim}30\;hrs.$ The chestnuts were packed in wooden boxes with sawdust (50% moisture) in the ratio of 1 : 1 by volume. The boxes were stored in the cold room $(1{\pm}1^{\circ}C,\;85{\sim}95%\;RH)$ and the cellar ($0{\sim}10^{\circ}C$, controlled only by circulating night cool air). The results obtained were as follows: 1. Fully matured chestnut could be successfully preserved $8{\sim}9\;months$ at a l0% decay level in the cold room and $4{\sim}5\;months$ months in cellar. 2. Immatured chestnuts wire inferior to the matured in storage stability. At the maximum storage period, its storage life was two months shorter. 3. The heat transfer equation of piled chestnuts with sawdust can be suggested as $T_{\infty}-T_0=(T_{\infty}-T_0){\cdot}10^{-t/320}$ and j and $f_h$ values were 1 and 320 min, respectively. 4. The chestnuts in the package of storage unit had longer shelf life than naked chestnut during the retail distribution at ambient temperature.

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In Vivo Embryo Production and Embryo Transfer in Hanwoo and Jeju Black Cattle Using CIDR (CIDR를 이용한 제주 한우 및 흑우의 체내 수정란 생산과 이식)

  • Kim, Y.H.;Koo, J.C.;Oh, C.W.;Kang, S.Y.;Yang, B.S.;Oh, S.J.;Kim, C.N.;Song, J.Y.;Kim, I.H.
    • Journal of Embryo Transfer
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.191-198
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    • 2006
  • The objectives of this study was to produce valuable offsprings of Hanwoo and Jeju black cattle using in vivo embryo production and embryo transfer techniques during 5 years ($2001{\sim}2005$) in Jeju. Two hundred and eighty six Hanwoo and sixty nine Jeju black cattles, at random stages of the estrous cycle, received a CIDR. Seven days later, the animals were superovulated with a total of 400 mg pFSH ($Folltropin^{(R)}-V$) administered twice daily in constant doses (each 50 mg) over 4 days. On the 6th administration of FSH, CIDR was withdrawn and 25 mg $PGF_{2{\alpha}}$ was administered. Cows were artificially inseminated thrice after estrous detection at 12 hr intervals. The cows received $250{\mu}g$ GnRH at the time of 2nd insemination. Embryos were recovered 7 or 8 days after the 1st insemination. Recipients were synchronized with donors by insertion of a CIDR for 7 days and administration of 25 mg $PGF_{2{\alpha}}$ at the time of CIDR removal. The collected embryos were transferred to 1,219 recipients by 6 transfer persons. The mean numbers of total ova and transferable embryos from Hanwoo and Jeju black cattle donors were 7.4 and 4.7, respectively The number of transferable embryos differed between Hanwoo (5.0) and Jeju black cattle (3.5, p<0.05), while that of total ova did not differ. Repeated superovulation treatments decreased (p<0.05) the ratio of numbers of the flushed animals vs. superovulated animals in Jeju black cattle, and the numbers of total ova and transferable embryos in Hanwoo. More transferable embryos were collected at summer (5.6) than winter (2.9, p<0.01). The mean pregnancy rate was 40%. The pregnancy.ate was affected by transfer year (2001<2004, p<0.05) and transfer person ($33.0{\sim}41.9%$, p<0.01), while not by donor (embryo) breed. These results showed that in vivo embryo preduction and embryo transfer techniques using CIDR for Hanwoo and Jeju black cattle donors as well as recipient, regardless of their estrous cycle, may enable a stable embryo production and recipient preparation.

The Pulation Structure of the Pacific Cod (Gadus macrocephalus Tilesius) Based on Mitochondrial DNA Sequences (미토콘드리아 유전자 염기서열 분석에 의한 대구 계군 분석)

  • Seo, Young-Il;Kim, Joo-Il;Oh, Taeg-Yun;Lee, Sun-Kil;Park, Jong-Hwa;Kim, Hee-Yong;Cho, Eun-Seob
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.336-344
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    • 2010
  • To assess population structure and genetic diversity among the Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), we investigated mtDNA COI gene sequences of 7 populations. Samples were obtained from Sokcho, Wolsung, Geojedo, Yeosu, Geomundo and Westsouth in 2008 and 2009 (n=28). The sequence analysis of 28 individual samples showed 8 haplotypes, ranging in sequence divergence by pairwise comparisons from 0.2 to 2.2% (1 bp-11 bp). The Gal haplotype was found in Wolsung, Geojedo, Yeosu, Geomundo and Westsouth, and was regarded as the main haplotype of Korean Pacific cod. Ga2, Ga3, Ga6 and Ga7 haplotypes were found only in Sokcho. In the PHYLIP analysis, 8 haplotypes formed two independent groups: cladeA consisted of Ga2, Ga3, Ga6 and Ga7 haplotypes, whereas cladeB contained Gal, Ga4, Ga5 and Ga8 haplotypes. The genetic relationship between the two groups was weakly supported by bootstrap analysis(<50%). In pairwise comparisons between 6 populations other than that from Sokcho, a very high per generation migration ratio ($N_m$=infinite) and a very low level of geographic distance ($F_{sr}=-0.0123-(-0.0423)$) were observed. The estimates of genetic distance between Sokcho and the other localities were all statistically significant (p<0.05, p<0.01, p<0.001), indicating a limited mtDNA-based gene flow between Sokcho and other regions. The finding of the lowest genetic diversity in the Sokcho population (nucleotide diversity=0.00589) may be a result of relatively small population size and interrupted gene flow to other localities. Consequently, the overall considerable migration of Pacific cod population in Korea caused a genetically homogeneous structure to form, although a distinct population was found in this study.

Eotaxin mRNA Expression in Bronchial Mucosa of Patients with Asthma (천식 환자의 기관지 조직에서 Eotaxin mRNA 발현에 관한 연구)

  • In, Kwang-Ho;Cho, Jae-Yun;Kang, Sae-Yong;Lee, Sang-Youb;Shim, Jae-Jeong;Kang, Kyung-Ho;Yoo, Se-Hwa;Na, Young-Soon;Kim, Han-Gyum
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.697-704
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    • 1998
  • Background: Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disease of the airways characterized by a marked infiltration of eosinophils in the bronchial mucosa. Asthmatic bronchial mucosa produces many factors described as being chemotactic for inflammatory cells. IL-5, RANTES, and MCP-1 alpha are the chemotactic factors for eosinophils, but their roles are controversial. Recently eotaxin that is a potent eosinophil chemoattractant cytokine was detected in a guinea-pig model of allergic airway inflammation, and human eotaxin was cloned. Eotaxin is a specific chemoattractant for eosinophils, but its role in asthma is not confirmed. We examined the in vivo expression of eotaxin in bronchi of asthmatic patients. Methods : 11 asthmatics and 2 normal controls were enrolled. All subjects were underwent bronchoscopy with bronchial biopsies in 2nd or 3rd carina. RNA extraction from biopsy samples was done by acid-guanidium method. Semi-quantitaive RT-PCR was done for evaluation of eotaxin mRNA expression The extent of eosinophil infiltration was evaluated by counting the eosinophils in submucosa in HPF of microscope. Results : Eotaxin mRNA expressed in symptomatic, uncontrolled asthma. Steroid inhibited expression of eotaxin mRNA in asthma. Expression of eotaxin mRNA correlated with eosinophil infiltration in bronchial tissues. Conclusion: Expression of eotaxin mRNA increases in uncontrolled asthma and eotaxin is involved in the recruitment of eosinophils.

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Effects of Korean diet control nutrition education on cardiovascular disease risk factors in patients who underwent cardiovascular disease surgery (심혈관질환 수술을 받은 환자에서 한식식이조절 영양교육이 심혈관질환 위험요인에 미치는 영향)

  • Jung, Su-Jin;Chae, Soo-Wan
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.215-227
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to verify the effects of increases in consuming Korean food in patients who underwent cardiovascular disease (CVD) surgery based on a Korean diet control education program and to investigate the effects of Korean diet control nutrition education on risk factors of CVD, changes in amounts of medication, and nutritional intakes. Methods: The subjects consisted of 15 patients who have undergone CVD surgery within three years and continuously taken cardiovascular drugs. The Korean traditional diet (KTD) emphasizes intake of vegetables and fermented foods to lower saturated fat and cholesterol intake. We applied a KTD education program that included a modified DASH (The dietary approaches to stop hypertension) diet for cardiovascular disease patients. Korean diet control education was then applied to the patients for 12 weeks to evaluate the risk factors of CVD and the state of nutritional intakes. Results: The Korean diet control compliance score increased significantly (p < 0.001) as Korean diet control education was implemented. Additionally, the obesity indexes, waist circumference (WC) (p = 0.002) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) decreased significantly (p < 0.001) after subjects received the education. Moreover, the glycemic control index, HbA1c, was significantly decreased (p < 0.05) from $7.3{\pm}1.0%$ before the education to $7.0{\pm}1.1%$ after the education. Changes in the amounts of Korean diet intake consisted of significant increases in cooked rice with whole grains, narmuls (vegetables either raw or cooked), kimchi, and traditional fermented foods following the education. Moreover, the nutritional intake after the education showed significant decreases (p < 0.05) in animal protein, animal lipids, and cholesterol. However, the intakes of Na, K, dietary fiber, vitamin A, vitamin $B_6$, vitamin C, and folic acid were significantly increased. Conclusion: The active encouragement of consuming Korean food and the intervention of implementing diet control education positively affected nutritional intake, the obesity index and glycemic control of patients who have undergone CVD surgery.