Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.18 no.4
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- pp.59-77
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- 2012
This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.
Today most developed countries provide modern medical care for most of the population. The rural area is the more neglected area in the medical and health field. In public health, the philosophy is that medical care for in maintenance of health is a basic right of man; it should not be discriminated against racial, environmental or financial situations. The deficiency of the medical care system, cultural bias, economic development, and ignorance of the residents about health care brought about the shortage of medical personnel and facilities on the rural areas. Moreover, medical students and physicians have been taught less about rural health care than about urban health care. Medical care, therefore, is insufficient in terms of health care personnel/and facilities in rural areas. Under such a situation, there is growing concern about the health problems among the rural population. The findings presented in this report are useful measures of the major health problems and even more important, as a guide to planning for improved medical care systems. It is hoped that findings from this study will be useful to those responsible for improving the delivery of health service for the rural population. Objectives: -to determine the health status of the residents in the rural areas. -to assess the rural population's needs in terms of health and medical care. -to make recommendations concerning improvement in the delivery of health and medical care for the rural population. Procedures: For the sampling design, the ideal would be to sample according to the proportion of the composition age-groups. As the health problems would be different by group, the sample was divided into 10 different age-groups. If the sample were allocated by proportion of composition of each age group, some age groups would be too small to estimate the health problem. The sample size of each age-group population was 100 people/age-groups. Personal interviews were conducted by specially trained medical students. The interviews dealt at length with current health status, medical care problems, utilization of medical services, medical cost paid for medical care and attitudes toward health. In addition, more information was gained from the public health field, including environmental sanitation, maternal and child health, family planning, tuberculosis control, and dental health. The sample Sample size was one fourth of total population: 1,438 The aged 10-14 years showed the largest number of 254 and the aged under one year was the smallest number of 81. Participation in examination Examination sessions usually were held in the morning every Tuesday, Wenesday, and Thursday for 3 hours at each session at the Namchun Health station. In general, the rate of participation in medical examination was low especially in ages between 10-19 years old. The highest rate of participation among are groups was the under one year age-group by 100 percent. The lowest use rate as low as 3% of those in the age-groups 10-19 years who are attending junior and senior high school in Taegu city so the time was not convenient for them to recieve examinations. Among the over 20 years old group, the rate of participation of female was higher than that of males. The results are as follows: A. Publie health problems Population: The number of pre-school age group who required child health was 724, among them infants numbered 96. Number of eligible women aged 15-44 years was 1,279, and women with husband who need maternal health numbered 700. The age-group of 65 years or older was 201 needed more health care and 65 of them had disabilities. (Table 2). Environmental sanitation: Seventy-nine percent of the residents relied upon well water as a primary source of dringking water. Ninety-three percent of the drinking water supply was rated as unfited quality for drinking. More than 90% of latrines were unhygienic, in structure design and sanitation (Table 15). Maternal and child health: Maternal health Average number of pregnancies of eligible women was 4 times. There was almost no pre- and post-natal care. Pregnancy wastage Still births was 33 per 1,000 live births. Spontaneous abortion was 156 per 1,000 live births. Induced abortion was 137 per 1,000 live births. Delivery condition More than 90 percent of deliveries were conducted at home. Attendants at last delivery were laymen by 76% and delivery without attendants was 14%. The rate of non-sterilized scissors as an instrument used to cut the umbilical cord was as high as 54% and of sickles was 14%. The rate of difficult delivery counted for 3%. Maternal death rate estimates about 35 per 10,000 live births. Child health Consultation rate for child health was almost non existant. In general, vaccination rate of children was low; vaccination rates for children aged 0-5 years with BCG and small pox were 34 and 28 percent respectively. The rate of vaccination with DPT and Polio were 23 and 25% respectively but the rate of the complete three injections were as low as 5 and 3% respectively. The number of dead children was 280 per 1,000 living children. Infants death rate was 45 per 1,000 live births (Table 16), Family planning: Approval rate of married women for family planning was as high as 86%. The rate of experiences of contraception in the past was 51%. The current rate of contraception was 37%. Willingness to use contraception in the future was as high as 86% (Table 17). Tuberculosis control: Number of registration patients at the health center currently was 25. The number indicates one eighth of estimate number of tuberculosis in the area. Number of discharged cases in the past accounted for 79 which showed 50% of active cases when discharged time. Rate of complete treatment among reasons of discharge in the past as low as 28%. There needs to be a follow up observation of the discharged cases (Table 18). Dental problems: More than 50% of the total population have at least one or more dental problems. (Table 19) B. Medical care problems Incidence rate: 1. In one month Incidence rate of medical care problems during one month was 19.6 percent. Among these health problems which required rest at home were 11.8 percent. The estimated number of patients in the total population is 1,206. The health problems reported most frequently in interviews during one month are: GI trouble, respiratory disease, neuralgia, skin disease, and communicable disease-in that order, The rate of health problems by age groups was highest in the 1-4 age group and in the 60 years or over age group, the lowest rate was the 10-14 year age group. In general, 0-29 year age group except the 1-4 year age group was low incidence rate. After 30 years old the rate of health problems increases gradually with aging. Eighty-three percent of health problems that occured during one month were solved by primary medical care procedures. Seventeen percent of health problems needed secondary care. Days rested at home because of illness during one month were 0.7 days per interviewee and 8days per patient and it accounts for 2,161 days for the total productive population in the area. (Table 20) 2. In a year The incidence rate of medical care problems during a year was 74.8%, among them health problems which required rest at home was 37 percent. Estimated number of patients in the total population during a year was 4,600. The health problems that occured most frequently among the interviewees during a year were: Cold (30%), GI trouble (18), respiratory disease (11), anemia (10), diarrhea (10), neuralgia (10), parasite disease (9), ENT (7), skin (7), headache (7), trauma (4), communicable disease (3), and circulatory disease (3) -in that order. The rate of health problems by age groups was highest in the infants group, thereafter the rate decreased gradually until the age 15-19 year age group which showed the lowest, and then the rate increased gradually with aging. Eighty-seven percent of health problems during a year were solved by primary medical care. Thirteen percent of them needed secondary medical care procedures. Days rested at home because of illness during a year were 16 days per interviewee and 44 days per patient and it accounted for 57,335 days lost among productive age group in the area (Table 21). Among those given medical examination, the conditions observed most frequently were respiratory disease, GI trouble, parasite disease, neuralgia, skin disease, trauma, tuberculosis, anemia, chronic obstructive lung disease, eye disorders-in that order (Table 22). The main health problems required secondary medical care are as fellows: (previous page). Utilization of medical care (treatment) The rate of treatment by various medical facilities for all health problems during one month was 73 percent. The rate of receiving of medical care of those who have health problems which required rest at home was 52% while the rate of those who have health problems which did not required rest was 61 percent (Table 23). The rate of receiving of medical care for all health problems during a year was 67 percent. The rate of receiving of medical care of those who have health problems which required rest at home was 82 percent while the rate of those who have health problems which did not required rest was as low as 53 percent (Table 24). Types of medical facilitied used were as follows: Hospital and clinics: 32-35% Herb clinics: 9-10% Drugstore: 53-58% Hospitalization Rate of hospitalization was 1.7% and the estimate number of hospitalizations among the total population during a year will be 107 persons (Table 25). Medical cost: Average medical cost per person during one month and a year were 171 and 2,800 won respectively. Average medical cost per patient during one month and a year were 1,109 and 3,740 won respectively. Average cost per household during a year was 15,800 won (Table 26, 27). Solution measures for health and medical care problems in rural area: A. Health problems which could be solved by paramedical workers such as nurses, midwives and aid nurses etc. are as follows: 1. Improvement of environmental sanitation 2. MCH except medical care problems 3. Family planning except surgical intervention 4. Tuberculosis control except diagnosis and prescription 5. Dental care except operational intervention 6. Health education for residents for improvement of utilization of medical facilities and early diagnosis etc. B. Medical care problems 1. Eighty-five percent of health problems could be solved by primary care procedures by general practitioners. 2. Fifteen percent of health problems need secondary medical procedures by a specialist. C. Medical cost Concidering the economic situation in rural area the amount of 2,062 won per residents during a year will be burdensome, so financial assistance is needed gorvernment to solve health and medical care problems for rural people.
1. Since long time ago, it has been talked about that soaking wood into water for a long time would be profitable for the decreasing of defects such as checking, cupping and bow due to the undue-shrinking and swelling. There are, however, no any actual data providing this fact definitly, although there are some guesses that water soluble extractives might effect on this problem. On the other hand, this is a few work which has been done about the effect of water soluble extractives upon the some physical properties of wood and that it might be related to the above mentioned problem. If man does account for that whether soaking wood into water for a long time would be profitable for the decreasing of defects due to the undue-shrinking and swelling in comparison with unsoaking wood or not, it may bring a great contribution on the reasonable uses of wood. To account for the effect of water soluble extractives upon physical properties of wood, this study has been made at the wood technology laboratory, School of Forestry, Yale university, under competent guidance of Dr. F. F. Wangaard, with the following three different species which had been provided at the same laboratory. 1. Pinus strobus 2. Quercus borealis 3. Hymenaea courbaril 2. The physical properties investigated in this study are as follows. a. Equilibrium moisture content at different relative humidity conditions. b. Shrinkage value from gre condition to different relative humidity conditions and oven dry condition. c. Swelling value from oven dry condition to different relative humidity conditions. d. Specific gravity 3. In order to investigate the effect of water soluble extractives upon physical properties of wood, the experiment has been carried out with two differently treated specimens, that is, one has been treated into water and the other into sugar solution, and with controlled specimens. 4. The quantity of water soluble extractives of each species and the group of chemical compounds in the extracted liquid from each species have shown in Table 36. Between species, there is some difference in quantity of extractives and group of chemical compounds. 5. In the case of equilibrium moisture contents at different relative humidity condition, (a) Except the desorption case at 80% R. H. C. (Relative Humidity Condition), there is a definite line between untreated specimens and treated specimens that is, untreated specimens hold water more than treated specimens at the same R.H.C. (b) The specimens treated into sugar solution have shown almost the same tendency in results compared with the untreated specimens. (c) Between species, there is no any definite relation in equilibrium moisture content each other, however E. M. C. in heartwood of pine is lesser than in sapwood. This might cause from the difference of wood anatomical structure. 6. In the case of shrinkage, (a) The shrinkage value of the treated specimen into water is more than that of the untreated specimens, except anyone case of heartwood of pine at 80% R. H. C. (b) The shrinkage value of treated specimens in the sugar solution is less than that of the others and has almost the same tendency to the untreated specimens. It would mean that the penetration of some sugar into the wood can decrease the shrinkage value of wood. (c) Between species, the shrinkage value of heartwood of pine is less than sapwood of the same, shrinkage value of oak is the largest, Hymenaea is lesser than oak and more than pine. (d) Directional difference of shrinkage value through all species can also see as other all kind of species previously tested. (e) There is a definite relation in between the difference of shrinkage value of treated and untreated specimens and amount of extractives, that is, increasing extractives gives increasing the difference of shrinkage value between treated and untreated specimens. 7. In the case of swelling, (a) The swelling value of treated specimens is greater than that of the untreated specimens through all cases. (b) In comparison with the tangential direction and radial direction, the swelling value of tangential direction is larger than that of radial direction in the same species. (c) Between species, the largest one in swelling values is oak and the smallest pine heartwood, there are also a tendency that species which shrink more swell also more and, on the contrary, species which shrink lesser swell also lesser than the others. 8. In the case of specific gravity, (a) The specific gravity of the treated specimens is larger than that of untreated specimens. This reversed value between treated and untreated specimens has been resulted from the volume of specimen of oven dry condition. (b) Between species, there are differences, that is, the specific gravity of Hymenaea is the largest one and the sapwood of pine is the smallest. 9. Through this investigation, it has been concluded that soaking wood into plain water before use without any special consideration may bring more hastful results than unsoaking for use of wood. However soaking wood into the some specially provided solutions such as salt water or inorganic matter may be dissolved in it, can be profitable for the decreasing shrinkage and swelling, checking, shaking and bow etc. if soaking wood into plain water might bring the decreasing defects, it might come from even shrinking and swelling through all dimension.