• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.112-122
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• 1993

Since more than 50${\%}$ of annual precipitation in Korea falls during Changma, the rainy season of early summer, and Late Changma, the rainy season of late summer, forcasting the onset days Changmas, and the amount related rainfalls would be necessary not only for agriculture but also for flood-control. In this study the authors attempted to build a prediction model for the forecast of the onset date of Changmas. The onset data of each Changma was derived out of daily rainfall data of 47 stations for 30 years(1961~1990) and weather maps over East Asia. Each station represent any of the 47 districts of local forecast under the Korea Meteorological Administration. The average onset dates of Changma during the period was from 21 through 26 June. The dates show a tendency to be delayed in El Ni${\~{n}}o years while they come earlier than the average in La Nina years. In 1982, the year of El Ni${\~{n}}o, the date was 9 Julu, two weeks late compared with the average. The relation of sea surface temperature(SST) over Pacific and Northern hemispheric 500mb height to the Changma onset dates was analyzed for the prediction model by polynomial regression. The onset date of Changma over Korea was correlated with SST in May(SST${_(5)}{^\circ}$C) of the district (8${^\circ}$~12${^\circ}S, 136${^\circ}~148${^\circ}W)of equatirial middle Pacific and the 500mb height in March (MB${_(3)}$"\;"m)over the district of the notrhern Hudson Bay. The relation between this two elements can be expressed by the regression: Onset=5.888SST${_5}"\;"+"\;"0.047MB${_(3)}$"\;"-251.241. This equation explains 77${\%}$ of variances at the 0.01${\%}$ singificance level. The onset dates of Late Changma come in accordance with the degeneration of the Subtro-pical High over northern Pacific. They were 18 August in average for the period showing positive correlation(r=0.71) with SST in May(SST)${_(i5)}{^\circ}$C) over district of IndiaN Ocean near west coast of Australia (24${^\circ}$~32${^\circ}$S, 104${^\circ}$~112${^\circ}$E), but negativ e with SST in May(SST${_(p5)}{^\circ}$ over district (12${^\circ}$~20${^\circ}$S,"\;"136${^\circ}$~148${^\circ}$W)of equatorial mid Pacific (r=-0.70) and with the 500mb height over district of northwestern Siberia (r=-0.62). The prediction model for Late Changma can be expressed by the regression: Onset=706.314-0.080 MB-3.972SST${_(p5)}+3.896 SST${_(i5)}, which explains 64${\%}$ of variances at the 0.01${\%}$ singificance level.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.103-111
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• 1996

I followed the results of Lee and Min(1996) for classification of the months of cold and warm winter. The winter of 1992 and 1984 recorded extraordinary cold and warm. Study of the Synoptic Climatology on the January's cold and warm winter is below: (1) Climatology's characteristic. Temperature of extremely high temperature month is higher compared with extremely low temperature month. Also precipitation is more than over low temperature month compared with extremely high temperature month. (2) In circulation of 500hPa surface. (1) Extremely high temperature month At 500hPa, negative geopotential height anomalies in high latitude, three trough developed over eastern Canada. In midlatitude, a deep trough persisted in the central North Pacific and conspicuous positive height anomalies showed over northwestern Europe, Where a blocking anticyclone developed. It had been warmer than normal since last year in Korea due mainly to positive height anomalies stretched from central Siberia (2) Extremely low temperature month Appeared the strong meridional circulation and negative height anomalies showed from Far East to the Mid-Pacific and appeared ridge in the west of the North America and Atlantic. Alutien Low shows negative deviation during 1984. In northern hemisphere shows negative deviation. Therefore, we can show that the surface pressure distribution and height distribution of 500hPa level are closely connected with each other as parts of general circulation. (3) The characteristics of the general circulation pattern of the 500hPa (1) Extremely high temperature month is high than extremely low temperature month1984 in Zonal index (2) The majority type is S type in 500hPa level circulation of extremely high temperature month but extremely high temperature month is M type (3) The wave number in 500hPa all shows 3 wave. So can not distinguished by only predominant wave number pattern.