Regardless of the recent observed warmer winters in Korea, more freeze injuries and associated economic losses are reported in fruit industry than ever before. Existing freeze-frost forecasting systems employ only daily minimum temperature for judging the potential damage on dormant flowering buds but cannot accommodate potential biological responses such as short-term acclimation of plants to severe weather episodes as well as annual variation in climate. We introduce 'dormancy depth', in addition to daily minimum temperature, as a complementary criterion for judging the potential damage of freezing temperatures on dormant flowering buds of grape vines. Dormancy depth can be estimated by a phonology model driven by daily maximum and minimum temperature and is expected to make a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of buds to low temperature. Dormancy depth at a selected site was estimated for a climatological normal year by this model, and we found a close similarity in time course change pattern between the estimated dormancy depth and the known cold tolerance of fruit trees. Inter-annual and spatial variation in dormancy depth were identified by this method, showing the feasibility of using dormancy depth as a proxy indicator for tolerance to low temperature during the winter season. The model was applied to 10 vineyards which were recently damaged by a cold spell, and a temperature-dormancy depth-freeze injury relationship was formulated into an exponential-saturation model which can be used for judging freeze risk under a given set of temperature and dormancy depth. Based on this model and the expected lowest temperature with a 10-year recurrence interval, a freeze risk probability map was produced for Hwaseong County, Korea. The results seemed to explain why the vineyards in the warmer part of Hwaseong County have been hit by more freeBe damage than those in the cooler part of the county. A dormancy depth-minimum temperature dual engine freeze warning system was designed for vineyards in major production counties in Korea by combining the site-specific dormancy depth and minimum temperature forecasts with the freeze risk model. In this system, daily accumulation of thermal time since last fall leads to the dormancy state (depth) for today. The regional minimum temperature forecast for tomorrow by the Korea Meteorological Administration is converted to the site specific forecast at a 30m resolution. These data are input to the freeze risk model and the percent damage probability is calculated for each grid cell and mapped for the entire county. Similar approaches may be used to develop freeze warning systems for other deciduous fruit trees.
In this paper, we report what we have observed with regards to a prediction model for the military based on enlisted men's internal(cumulative records) and external data(SNS data). This work is significant in the military's efforts to supervise them. In spite of their effort, many commanders have failed to prevent accidents by their subordinates. One of the important duties of officers' work is to take care of their subordinates in prevention unexpected accidents. However, it is hard to prevent accidents so we must attempt to determine a proper method. Our motivation for presenting this paper is to mate it possible to predict accidents using enlisted men's internal and external data. The biggest issue facing the military is the occurrence of accidents by enlisted men related to maladjustment and the relaxation of military discipline. The core method of preventing accidents by soldiers is to identify problems and manage them quickly. Commanders predict accidents by interviewing their soldiers and observing their surroundings. It requires considerable time and effort and results in a significant difference depending on the capabilities of the commanders. In this paper, we seek to predict accidents with objective data which can easily be obtained. Recently, records of enlisted men as well as SNS communication between commanders and soldiers, make it possible to predict and prevent accidents. This paper concerns the application of data mining to identify their interests, predict accidents and make use of internal and external data (SNS). We propose both a topic analysis and decision tree method. The study is conducted in two steps. First, topic analysis is conducted through the SNS of enlisted men. Second, the decision tree method is used to analyze the internal data with the results of the first analysis. The dependent variable for these analysis is the presence of any accidents. In order to analyze their SNS, we require tools such as text mining and topic analysis. We used SAS Enterprise Miner 12.1, which provides a text miner module. Our approach for finding their interests is composed of three main phases; collecting, topic analysis, and converting topic analysis results into points for using independent variables. In the first phase, we collect enlisted men's SNS data by commender's ID. After gathering unstructured SNS data, the topic analysis phase extracts issues from them. For simplicity, 5 topics(vacation, friends, stress, training, and sports) are extracted from 20,000 articles. In the third phase, using these 5 topics, we quantify them as personal points. After quantifying their topic, we include these results in independent variables which are composed of 15 internal data sets. Then, we make two decision trees. The first tree is composed of their internal data only. The second tree is composed of their external data(SNS) as well as their internal data. After that, we compare the results of misclassification from SAS E-miner. The first model's misclassification is 12.1%. On the other hand, second model's misclassification is 7.8%. This method predicts accidents with an accuracy of approximately 92%. The gap of the two models is 4.3%. Finally, we test if the difference between them is meaningful or not, using the McNemar test. The result of test is considered relevant.(p-value : 0.0003) This study has two limitations. First, the results of the experiments cannot be generalized, mainly because the experiment is limited to a small number of enlisted men's data. Additionally, various independent variables used in the decision tree model are used as categorical variables instead of continuous variables. So it suffers a loss of information. In spite of extensive efforts to provide prediction models for the military, commanders' predictions are accurate only when they have sufficient data about their subordinates. Our proposed methodology can provide support to decision-making in the military. This study is expected to contribute to the prevention of accidents in the military based on scientific analysis of enlisted men and proper management of them.
A survey on biliary atresia was made among 26 members of the Korean Association of Pediatric Surgeons. The members were required to complete a questionnaire and a case registration form for each patient during the twentyone-year period of 1980-2000. Three hundred and eighty patients were registered from 18 institutions. The average number of patients per surgeon was one to two every year. The male to female ratio was 1:1.3. The age of patients on diagnosis with biliary atresia was on average
Price promotion typically reduces the price for a given quantity or increases the quantity available at the same price, thereby enhancing value and creating an economic incentive to purchase. It often is used to encourage product or service trial among nonusers of products or services. Thus, it is important to understand the effects of price promotions on quality perception made by consumer who do not have prior experience with the promoted brand. However, if consumers associate a price promotion itself with inferior brand quality, the promotion may not achieve the sales increase the economic incentives otherwise might have produced. More specifically, low qualitative perception through price promotion will undercut the economic and psychological incentives and reduce the likelihood of purchase. Thus, it is important for marketers to understand how price promotional informations about a brand have impact on consumer's unfavorable quality perception of the brand. Previous literatures on the effects of price promotions on quality perception reveal inconsistent explanations. Some focused on the unfavorable effect of price promotion on consumer's perception. But others showed that price promotions didn't raise unfavorable perception on the brand. Prior researches found these inconsistent results related to the timing of the price promotion's exposure and quality evaluation relative to trial. And, whether the consumer has been experienced with the product promotions in the past or not may moderate the effects. A few studies considered differences among product categories as fundamental factors. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of price promotional informations on consumer's unfavorable quality perception under the different conditions. The author controlled the timing of the promotional exposure and varied past promotional patterns and information presenting patterns. Unlike previous researches, the author examined the effects of price promotions setting limit to pretrial situation by controlling potentially moderating effects of prior personal experience with the brand. This manipulations enable to resolve possible controversies in relation to this issue. And this manipulation is meaningful for the work sector. Price promotion is not only used to target existing consumers but also to encourage product or service trial among nonusers of products or services. Thus, it is important for marketers to understand how price promotional informations about a brand have impact on consumer's unfavorable quality perception of the brand. If consumers associate a price promotion itself with inferior quality about unused brand, the promotion may not achieve the sales increase the economic incentives otherwise might have produced. In addition, if the price promotion ends, the consumer that have purchased that certain brand will likely to display sharply decreased repurchasing behavior. Through a literature review, hypothesis 1 was set as follows to investigate the adjustive effect of past price promotion on quality perception made by consumers; The influence that price promotion of unused brand have on quality perception made by consumers will be adjusted by past price promotion activity of the brand. In other words, a price promotion of an unused brand that have not done a price promotion in the past will have a unfavorable effect on quality perception made by consumer. Hypothesis 2-1 was set as follows : When an unused brand undertakes price promotion for the first time, the information presenting pattern of price promotion will have an effect on the consumer's attribution for the cause of the price promotion. Hypothesis 2-2 was set as follows : The more consumer dispositionally attribute the cause of price promotion, the more unfavorable the quality perception made by consumer will be. Through test 1, the subjects were given a brief explanation of the product and the brand before they were provided with a
In china, six bibliographies of offical historical books are evaluated at the most important things among the systematically-editing bibliographies. These bibliographies would be usful to study the orign of classical sciences and their development, bibliographic research of Chinese classics, bibliographic judgement on genuine books, titles, authors, volumes. They could be refered to research into graving, correcting, and existence of ancient books. therefore, these bibliographies would be applied to estimation the phase of scientific and cultural development. The study of these bibliographies has been not yet made in Korea. This thesis lays its importance on the background of their appearance, their classification norms, organizing system of their catalogue, and comparison between their difference. 1. Editing and compiling of Chilyak (칠약) by Liu Chin (유흠) and official histories played an important role of entering an apperance of historical book's bibliographies. Chilyak has been lost. However, its classification and compiling system of classical books would be traced by Hansoyemunji(한서예문지) of which basic system is similar to Chilyak. It classified books according to their scientific characteristic. If a few books didn't have their own categories, they were combined by the circles parallel to the books' characteristic. With the books classified under the same scientific characteristic, they were again divided into the scientific schools or structures. It also arranged the same kinds of books according to the chronology. The some books wi th duplicate subjects were classified multiplely by their duplicate subject. 2. Ssu-ma Chon's (사마천) The Historical Records (Saki, 사기) and Pan Ku's (반고) The History of the Former Han Dynasty (Hanso, 한서) has also took effects on appearance of historical books' bibliographies. Covering overall history, Saki was structured by the five parts: The basic annals(본기), the chronological tables (표), the documents (서), the hereditary houses (세가), biographies (열전). The basic annals dealt with kings and courts' affairs according to the chronology. The chronological tables was the records of the annals. The documents described overall the social and cultural systems. The hereditary houses recorded courts' meritorious officials and public figures. The biographies showed exemplars of seventy peoples selected by their social status. Pan Ku(반구)'s The History of the Former Han Dynasty(한서) deserved to be called the prototype for the offical histories after Saki's (사기; The Historical Records) apperance. Although it modelled on Saki, it had set up its own cataloguing system. It was organized by four parts; the basic annals (본기), the chronological tables (표), treatises(지), biographies (열전). The documents in the Hanso(한서) was converted into treatises(지). The hereditary houses and biographies were merged. For the first time, the treatise with The Yemunji could operate function for historical bibliographies. 3. There were six historical bibliographies: Hansoyemunji(한서예문지), Susokyongjeokji (수서경적지), Kudangsokyongjeokji(구당서경적지), Shindangsoyemunji (신당서예문지), Songsayemunji (송사예문지), Myongsayemunji (명사예문지). 1) Modelling on Liu Chin's Chilyak except Chipryak(집략), Hansoyemunji divided the characteristic of the books and documents into six parts: Yukrye(육예), Cheja(제자), Shibu(시부), Pyongsoh(병서), Susul(수술), Pangki(방기). Under six parts, there were thirty eight orders in Hansoyemunji. To its own classification, Hansoyemunji applied the Chilyak's theory of classification that the books or documents were managed according to characteristic of sciences, the difference of schools, the organization of sentences. However the overlapped subjects were deleted and unified into one. The books included into an unsuitable subject were corrected and converted into another. The Hansoyemunji consisted of main preface (Taesoh 대서), minor preface (Sosoh 소서) , the general preface (Chongso 총서). It also recorded the introduction of books and documents, the origin of sciences, the outline of subjects, and the establishment of orders. The books classified by the subject had title, author, and volumes. They were rearranged by titles and the chronological publication year. Sometimes author was the first access point to catalogue the books. If it was necessary for the books to take footnotes, detail notes were formed. The Volume number written consecutively to order and subject could clarify the quantity of books. 2) Refering to Classfication System by Seven Norms (칠분법) and Classification System by Four Norms(사분법), Susokyongjeokji(수서경적지) had accomplished the classification by four norms. In fact, its classification largely imitated Wanhyosoh(완효서)'s Chilrok(칠록), Susokyongjeokji's system of classification consisted of four parts-Kyung(경), Sa(사), Cha(자), Chip(칩). The four parts were divided into 40 orders. Its appendix was again divided into two parts, Buddihism and Taiosm. Under the two parts there were fifteen orders. Totally Susokyongjeokji was made of six parts and fifty five orders. In comparison with Hansoyemunji(한서예문지), it clearly showed the conception of Kyung, Sa, Cha, Chip. Especially it deserved to be paid attention that Hansoyemunji laied history off Chunchu(춘추) and removed history to Sabu(사부). However Chabu(사부) put many contrary subjects such as Cheja(제자), Kiye(기예), Sulsu(술수), Sosol(소설) into the same boundary, which committed errors insufficient theoretical basis. Anothor demerit of Susokyongjeokji was that it dealt with Taiosm scriptures and Buddism scriptures at the appendix because they were considered as quasi-religion. Its compilation of bibliographical facts consisted of main preface(Taesoh 대서), minor preface(Sosoh 소서), general preface (Chongsoh 총서), postscript (Husoh 후서). Its bibliological facts mainly focused on the titles. Its recorded authors' birth date and their position. It wrote the lost and existence of books consecutive to total number of books, which revealed total of the lost books in Su Dynasty. 3) Modelling on the basis of Kokumsorok(고분서록) and Naewaekyongrok(내외경록), Kudangsokyongjeokji(구당서경적지) had four parts and fourty five orders. It was estimated as the important role of establishing basic frame of classification by four norms in classification theory's history. However it had also its own limit. Editing and compling orders of Kudangsokyongjeokji had been not progressively changed. Its orders imitated by and large Susokyongjeokji. In Its system of organizing catalogue, with its minor preface and general preface deleting, Kudangsokyongjeokji by titles after orders sometimes broke out confusion because of unclear boundaries between orders. 4) Shindangsoyemunji(신당서예문지), adding 28,469 books to Kudangsokyongjeokji, recorded 82,384 books which were divided by four parts and fourty four orders. In comparison with Kudangkyongjeokj, Sindangsoyemunji corrected unclear order's norm. It merged the analogical norms four orders (for instance, Kohun 고훈 and Sohakryu 소학류) and seperated the different norms four orders (for example, Hyokyong 효경 and Noneuhryu 논어류, Chamwi 참위 and Kyonghaeryu 경해류, Pyonryon 편년 and Wisaryu 위사류). Recording kings' behaviors and speeches (Kikochuryu 기거주류) in the historical parts induced the concept of specfication category. For the first time, part of Chipbu (집부) set up the order of classification norm for historical and literatural books and documents (Munsaryu 문사류). Its editing and compiling had been more simplified than Kudangsokyongjeokji. Introduction was written at first part of bibliographies. Appendants except bibliographic items such subject, author, title, volume number, total were omitted. 5) Songsayemunji(송사예문지) were edited in the basis of combining Puksong(북송) and Namsong(남송), depending on Sabukuksayemunji(사부국사예문지). Generally Songsayemunji had lost a lot of bibliographical facts of many books. They were duplicated and wrongly classified books because it committed an error of the incorrectly annalistic editing. Particularly Namsong showed more open these defaults. Songsayemunji didin't include the books published since the king Youngchong(영종). Its system of classification was more better controlled. Chamwiryu(참위류) in the part of Kyongbu(경부) was omitted. In the part of history(Sabu 사부), recordings of kings' behaviors and speeches more merged in the annals. Historical abstract documents (Sachoryu 사초류) were seperately arranged. In the part of Chabu(자부), Myongdangkyongmaekryu(명당경맥류) and Euisulryu(의술류) were combined. Ohangryu(오행류) were laied off Shikuryu(시구류). In the part of Chipbu(집부), historical and literatural books (Munsaryu 문사류) were independentely arranged. There were the renamed orders; from Wisa(위사) to Paesa(패사), Chapsa (잡사) to Pyolsa(열사), Chapchonki(잡전기) to Chonki(전기), Ryusoh(류서) to Ryusa(류서). Introduction had only main preface. The books of each subject catalogued by title, the volume number, and author and arranged mainly by authors. Annotations were written consecutively after title and the volume number. In the afternote the number of not-treated books were revealed. Difference from Singdangsohyemunji(신당서예문지) were that the concept and boundary of orders became more clearer. It also wrote the number of books consecutive to main subject. 6) Modelling on Chonkyongdangsomok (경당서목), Myongsayemunji(명사예문지) was compiled in the basis of books and documents published in the Ming Danasty. In classification system, Myongsayemunji partly merged and the seperated some orders for it. It also deleted and renamed some of orders. In case of necessity, combining of orders' norm was occured particulary in the part of Sabu(사부) and Chabu(자부). Therefore these merging of orders norm didn't offer sufficient theretical background. For example, such demerits were seen in the case that historical books edited by annals were combined with offical historical ones which were differently compiled and edited from the former. In the part of Chabu(자부), it broke out another confusion that Pubga(법가), Meongga(명가), Mukga(묵가), Chonghweongka's(종횡가) thoughts were classified in the Chapka(잡가). Scriptures of Taiosim and Buddhism were seperated from each other. There were some deleted books such as Mokrokryu(목록류), Paesaryu(패사류) in the part of history (Sabu 사부) and Chosaryu(초사류) in the part of Chipbu(집부). The some in the each orders had been renamed. Imitating compiling system of Songsayemunji(송사예문지), with reffering to its differ-ence, Myongsayemunji(명사예문지) wrote the review and the change of the books by author. The number of not-treated books didn't appear at the total. It also deleted the total following main subject.
The results of ground vegetation experiment conducted at completely denuded forestland in the mudstone region are summerized as follows: On the reaults of soiling quantity the effect of soiling was observed where depth of soiling over 10 cm was practiced, and a plot where treated with 15cm soiling and without fertilizer showed poor growth and it was even worser than the plot where soiling was practiced only 1 cm in thikness but applied adequate amount of fertilizers. The depth of slits between 30cm and 40cm showed no significant difference in the effect. A plot where covered with vegetation bag showed somewhat better results in seed loss and early growth but no differences observed in the fall result over the none covered plot. And then, it is recommendable to have soiling over 10cm in thikness with slit of 30cm and 30cm in depth and to apply 30 gram of fertilizer (22;22:11, 50 gram) per slit. On various soiling materials trial there were no striking differences in the effect of soiling between weathered granite soil, wheathered tuffs soil and weathered mudstone soil. In the treatment with various green materials, a plot treated with straw mat showed a significant difference at 1 percent. The results show that weathered mudstone soil is effective to use as soiling materials and straw mat treatment was better. On forest fertilization trial, in the mudstone region where red and black pine trees already existing at a rate of 2,000-3,000 trees per hectare had applied 110kg of compound fertilizers (9:12:3 and 22:22:11) per hectare basis in terms of plant nutrient. As a result, the difference in effect between the compound fertilizers was not found however the leaf color and leaf length of the fertilizer added plot showed darker and longer at 30 percent over the no fertilizer received plot. Compound fertilizers, 14:37:12 and 9:12:3 were applied to alder trees at a rate of 20 gram and 40 gram per tree in terms of plant nutrient and a remarkable growth accelerantion was observed where 40 grams of plant nutrient applied. The effect difference between the compound fertilizers was not found. On investigation of tree root elongation, forty years old red pine trees showed only 15cm tap root elongation through mudstone while black pine had 23 cm tap root elongation. The total length of supporting root elongtion of red and black pines showed 20 and 13 meters, respectively. The tap roots of Black locusts were not able to elongate through mudstone, however, the supporting roots tended to develop to the underneath of pine tree where some moisture content is available. Black locusts And grown on the residual soil of mudstone normally die between 8 to 10 years. The red pine trees show flat in tree shape while black pine had triangle in the shape. With the results it can be said that in an artificial reforestation in denuded forest land of the mudstone region the adequate slit and enough amount of fertiliizer application must be provided for the succesful performance of the program. On integrated experimental results of 1972. for the establishment of ground vegetation on the completely denuded forest land in mudstone region, soiling could be effectively practiced with weathered mudstone soil and it would not specially necessiate to have either weathered granite or tuffssoil for the soiling. And the soiling depth should be more than 10 cm in thickness. Among green materials used the straw mat proved to be the most effective reatment. Three major factors which enable to establish ground vegetation by the shortest period of time: A. Physical improvement of soil is necessary to breakdown of the horizontal cracks sushas Slit, contour line plot, seeding hole and etc., and soiling with weathered mudstone soil. B. Chemical improvement of soil: is needed sufficient amount of fertilizer application 300~400kg ha,