• Title/Summary/Keyword: 2RCM

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Large-Scale Slope Stability Analysis Using Climate Change Scenario (2): Analysis of Application Results (기후변화 시나리오를 이용한 광역 사면안정 해석(2): 결과분석)

  • Oh, Sung-Ryul;Lee, Gi-Ha;Choi, Byoung-Seub;Lee, Kun-Hyuk;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to assess the slope stability variation of Jeonbuk drainage areas by RCM model outputs based on A1B climate change scenario and infinite slope stability model based on the previous research by Choi et al.(2013). For a large-scale slope stability analysis, we developed a GIS-based database regarding topographic, geologic and forestry parameters and also calculated daily maximum rainfall for the study period(1971~2100). Then, we assess slope stability variation of the 20 sub-catchments of Jeonbuk under the climate change scenario. The results show that the areal-average value of safety factor was estimated at 1.36(moderately stable) in spite of annual rainfall increase in the future. In addition, 7 sub-catchments became worse and 5 sub-catchments became better than the present period(1971~2000) in terms of safety factor in the future.

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Drought Risk (기후변화가 가뭄 위험성에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2011
  • A chronic drought stress has been imposed during non-rainy season(from winter to spring) since 1990s. We faced the most significant water crisis in 2001, and the drought was characterized by sultry weather and severe drought on a national scale. It has been widely acknowledged that the drought related damage is 2-3 times serious than floods. In the list of the world's largest natural disaster compiled by NOAA, 4 of the top 5 disasters are droughts. And according to the analysis from the NDMC report, the drought has the highest annual average damage among all the disasters. There was a very serious impact on the economic such as rising consumer price during the 2001 spring drought in Korea. There has been flood prevention measures implemented at national-level but for mitigation of droughts, there are only plans aimed at emergency (short-term) restoration rather than the comprehensive preventive measures. In addition, there is a lack of a clear set of indicators to express drought situation objectively, and therefore it is important and urgent to begin a systematic study. In this study, a nonstationary downscaling model using RCM based climate change scenario was first applied to simulate precipitation, and the simulated precipitation data was used to derive Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI under climate change was used to evaluate the spatio-temporal variability of drought through principal component analysis at three different time scales which are 2015, 2045 and 2075. It was found that spatio-temporal variability is likely to modulate with climate change.

A study on the variation of design flood due to climate change in the ungauged urban catchment (기후변화에 따른 미계측 도시유역의 확률홍수량 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Jeongyoon;Ahn, Jeonghwan;Jeong, Changsam;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.395-404
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    • 2018
  • This research evaluated the change in rainfall quantile during S1, S2, and S3 by using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 climate scenario HadGEM3-RA Regional Climate Model (RCM) produced by downscaling and bias correlation compared to the past standard observation data S0. Also, the maximum flood peak volume and flood area were calculated by using the urban runoff model and the impact of climate change was analyzed in each period. For this purpose, Gumbel distribution was used as an appropriate model based on the method of maximum likelihood. As a result, in the case of the 10 year-frequency which is the design of most urban drainage facilities, the rainfall quantile is in increased about 10% if we assume 50 years from now with the $3^{rd}$ quarter value and about 20% if we assume 70 years from now. This result implies that the installed urban drainage facility based on the currently set design flood volume cannot be met the design criteria in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect future climate conditions to current urban drainage facilities.

Administration of chromium picolinate and meloxicam alleviates regrouping stress in dairy heifers

  • Da Jin Sol Jung;Jaesung Lee;Do Hyun Kim;Seok-Hyeon Beak;Soo Jong Hong;In Hyuk Jeong;Seon Pil Yoo;Jin Oh Lee;In Gu Cho;Dilla Mareistia Fassah;Hyun Jin Kim;Mohammad Malekkhahi;Myunggi Baik
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.37 no.8
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    • pp.1495-1502
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    • 2024
  • Objective: This research investigated the effect of administering chromium (Cr) and meloxicam (MEL) on growth performance, cortisol and blood metabolite, and behaviors in young, regrouped heifers. Methods: Fifty Holstein dairy heifers (body weight [BW] 198±32.7 kg and 6.5±0.82 months of age) were randomly assigned to non-regrouped group or four regrouped groups. Non-regrouped animals were held in the same pen throughout the entire experimental period (NL: non-regrouping and administration of lactose monohydrate [LM; placebo]). For regrouping groups, two or three heifers maintained in four different pens for 2 weeks were regrouped into a new pen and assigned to one of four groups: regrouping and LM administration (RL); regrouping and Cr administration (RC); regrouping and MEL administration (RM), and regrouping and Cr and MEL administration (RCM). LM (1 mg/kg BW), Cr (0.5 mg Cr picolinate/kg dry matter intake), and MEL (1 mg/kg BW) were orally administered immediately before regrouping. Blood was collected before regrouping (0 h) and at 3, 9, and 24 h and 7 and 14 d thereafter. Behaviors were recorded for 7 consecutive days after regrouping. Results: Average daily gain was lower (p<0.05) in RL than NL heifers, but was higher (p<0.05) in RM, RC, and RCM than RL heifers. RL heifers had higher (p<0.05) cortisol than NL heifers on d 1 after regrouping. The cortisol concentrations in RC, RM, and RCM groups were lower (p<0.05) than in RL treatment 1 d after regrouping. Displacement behavior was greater (p<0.05) in RL group than all other groups at 2, 3, and 6 d after regrouping. Conclusion: Regrouping caused temporal stress, reduced growth performance, and increased displacement behavior in heifers. Administering Cr and MEL recovered the retarded growth rate and reduced displacement behavior, thereby alleviating regrouping stress.

Mass Production of Mg based Hydrogen Absorbing Alloys and Evalution of Hydrogenation and Degradation Properties by Hydriding/Dehydriding Cyclic Test (교반관법에 의한 Mg 기지 수소저항합금의 대량제조와 반복적 수소화 반응에 따른 수소화 특성 및 열화특성 평가)

  • Ha, Won;Lee, Sung-Gon;Hong, Tae-Whan;Kim, Young-Jig
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2002
  • Hydrogenation properties of Mg-Ni and Mg-Ti-Ni alloys were investigated by Pressure-Composition Isotherm (PCI) test. Those alloys were fabricated by a new alloying method, Rotation-Cylinder Method (RCM). The as-cast microstructure of Mg-10 mass% Ni alloy consists of an island-like hydride forming $\alpha$-Mg phase and the eutectic structure. After 350 cyclic tests, Mg-lO mass % Ni alloy was pulverized into fine particles of 100 nm. The fine particles, which have a large specific surface area, are highly reactive with hydrogen. However, extreme pulvehzation can separate Mg from $Mg_2Ni$ in the eutectic structure, so $Mg_2Ni$ of the eutectic structure cannot behave as a dissociated hydrogen supplier.

Analysis on Spatio-Temporal Change of Extreme Rainfall Under Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 극치강수량의 시공간적 특성 변화 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Byung-Sik;Kim, Bo-Kyung;Yoon, Seok-Young
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1152-1155
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    • 2009
  • 기후변화로 인해서 발생하는 여러 영향 중 가뭄 및 홍수와 같은 극치강수량의 변동은 사회 경제적으로 파급효과가 크기 때문에 더욱 주목을 받고 있다. 이러한 점을 효과적으로 평가하기 위해서 본 연구에서는 지역규모기후변화시나리오와 비정상성 Markov Chain 모형을 이용한 Downscaling 기법의 적용 등 일련의 과정을 통해 기후변화를 반영한 지점별 일강수계열을 생성하고 이를 대상으로 다양한 분석을 실시하였다. 수문기후변화시나리오 작성 과정을 요약하면 다음과 같다. B1과 A2 지역규모 기후변화시나리오가 사용되었으며 이를 비정상성 Downscaling 기법의 입력 자료로 활용하여 일강수량 자료를 모의 발생하였다. 이러한 과정을 우리나라 기상청 산하 60개 강우지점에 적용하였으며 극치강수량의 빈도를 추정하기 위해 부분기간 계열과 전기간 계열 자료로 재생산하여 극치분석을 실시하였다. 극치분석결과 강수량에 대한 공간적인 편차가 심하게 발생하고 있으며 강수량의 변동성 또한 매우 크게 나타나고 있는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이러한 특성은 선택된 시간 및 사용된 기후변화시나리오에 따라 다르게 나타나고 있으며 한 가지 주목할 점은 기후변화정도가 심한 A2 시나리오와 정도가 약한 B1 시나리오를 비교할 때 온도와 같은 뚜렷한 차이점은 발견할수 없었다.

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Chaotic Disaggregation of Daily Rainfall from the Climate Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오에 따른 일 강우자료의 카오스적 시간분해)

  • Kyoung, Min-Soo;Sivakumar, Bellie;Kim, Hung-Soo;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.178-183
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    • 2008
  • 지구온난화로 인한 기후변화가 기정사실화 되면서 이러한 기후변화에 대비하기 위한 다양한 연구가 진행중이다. 수자원과 관련된 기후변화 연구를 살펴보면 초기에는 장기적 관점에서 기후변화가 유출에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구가 대부분을 이루고 있었으나 2003년을 기점으로 유럽을 중심으로 기후변화가 홍수량에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구가 시작되었다. 기후변화가 홍수에 미치는 영향을 평가하는데 가장 중요한 것은 수문시계열 자료의 해상도라고 할 수 있다. 이러한 시공간적 해상도 문제를 해결하기 위해서 세계 각국은 각국의 상황에 맞는 RCM을 개발하고 있으며 자국에 적합한 축소기법을 개발하고자 노력하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 고해상도 수문기상자료의 생성을 위하여 기후변화 모형으로부터 생성된 일 단위 강우자료를 시자료로 분해하기 위한 기법을 제시하고자한다. 지난 수십년 동안 강우나 기타 수문시계열 자료를 다양한 해상도의 자료로 변환하기 위한 연구가 진행되어왔다. 그러나 이러한 연구의 가장 큰 한계점은 대부분의 시계열 자료가 추계학적 특성을 가지고 있다고 가정한 후, 분석을 진행했다는 것이다. 이렇게 되면 강우발생에 따른 물리적 과정을 모형의 구조에 반영하는데 한계점을 드러내게 된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 해상도를 변화시키는데 따른 강우의 운동역학적 특성을 고려하기 위하여 카오스를 기반으로 한 분해기법을 제시하고자 한다. 우선 카오스 분석을 통해서 지점 강우자료의 카오스 특성을 확인한 후, 현재까지 관측된 강우를 기반으로 $2CO_2$에서의 일 강우를 일 단위 보다 작은 단위로 분해하였다.

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Impact of climate change scenarios in the Building Sector (기후변화 시나리오에 따른 건물부분의 영향)

  • Lee, Kwan-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.64-69
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    • 2013
  • According to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Working Group III, climate change is already in progress around the world, and it is necessary to execute mitigation in order to minimize adverse impacts. This paper suggests future climate change needs, employing IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) to predict temperature rises over the next 100 years. This information can be used to develop sustainable architecture applications for energy efficient buildings and renewable energy. Such climate changes could also affected the present supplies of renewable energy sources. This paper discusses one recent Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC (Mitigation of Climate Change) and the Hadley Centre climate simulation of relevant data series for South Korea. Result of this research may improve consistency and reliability of simulation weather data or climate change in order to take advantage of SRES and PRECIS QUMP. It is expected that these calculated test reference years will be useful to the designers of solar energy systems, as well as those who need daily solar radiation data for South Korea. Also, those results may contribute zero carbon and design of sustainable architecture establishing future typical weather data that should be gone ahead to energy efficient building design using renewable energy systems.

Comparison of climate extremes under different RCP-SSP scenarios (RCP 및 SSP 기후변화 시나리오 기반 극한기후사상 전망 비교)

  • Jae-Ung Yu;Ji sung Kim;Yoon Jeong Kwon;Jangwon Moon;Hyun-Han Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.285-285
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    • 2023
  • 기후변화로 인한 변동성의 증가는 돌발 홍수, 홍수량 증가로 이외에도 강우 사상의 변화, 가뭄의 빈도 및 강도의 증대 등의 문제를 이어질 수 있다. 이러한 기후변화에 대응하기 위하여 기후변화 시나리오를 제시하고 이를 정책적으로 반영할 수 있도록 하고 있다. 기존 IPCC 5차 보고서에 활용한 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 시나리오에서는 온실가스 농도변화만을 반영하고 있으나, 최근 IPCC 6차 보고서에서는 사회적인 노력과 경제적 구조 등 전반적인 기후정책, 사회 불균형 등을 고려한 SSP(Shared Socio-economic Pathways) 시나리오를 제시하였다. 본 연구에서는 2가지 기후변화 시나리오의 차이점과 유사점을 강수 중심으로 평가하였다. 기존의 RCP 시나리오에 비하여 극한 강우 사상의 변화를 비교 및 평가하기 위하여 CORDEX-EA에서 제공하는 지역기후모델(Regional Climate Model; RCM) 기반에 시나리오를 수집하여 극한기후지수를 산정하였다. 극한기후사상을 비교하기 위하여 WMO에서 활용하는 ETCCDI(Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) 지수 중 강우 관련 지수인 R10mm, RX1day, RX5day, RD95P, RD99P, SDII를 선정하여 시나리오 별로 결과를 비교하여 제시하였다. 또한, 기존의 연대기 기준의 평가방식에서 탈피하여 동일한 기온 상승 시점에 따라 변화를 확인하기 위한 분석절차를 수립하였다. 즉, 1.5℃, 2℃, 3℃ 및 4℃ 상승한 시점의 ETCCDI 지수를 산정하여 극한기후사상을 비교 및 평가하였다.

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A study on effects of water-cement ratio and crack width on chloride ion transmission rate in concrete

  • Li, Yue;Chen, Xiaohan;Zhang, Guosheng
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.387-394
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    • 2017
  • To study the effects of water-cement ratio changes and cracks on chloride ion transmission rate in cracked concrete, RCM method was adopted to accelerate the diffusion of chloride ion in cracked concrete, and the changes in chloride ion concentration and around the cracks are inferred by finite-element method. The test results show that as far as prefabricated cracks on concrete components are concerned, the width thresholds of two cracks on the concrete specimens with a water-cement ratio of 0.5 and 0.6 are 0.05 mm and 0.1 mm respectively, the width threshold of two cracks on the concrete specimens with a water-cement ratio of 0.4 is 0.05 mm and 0.2 mm respectively; and the results of numerical simulation show that the smaller the water-cement ratio is, the more significant effects of cracks on chloride ion transmission rate are. As a result, more attention shall be paid to the crack prevention, repairing and strengthening for high-strength concrete.