• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1995.02a
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• pp.101-113
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• 1995

The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.14
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• pp.1-40
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• 1973

There is a general tendency to increase nitrogen level in rice production to insure an increased yield. On the other hand, percentage of ripened grains is getting decreased with such an increased fertilizer level. Decreasing of the percentage is one of the important yield limiting factors. Especially the newly developed rice variety, 'Tongil' is characterized by a relatively low percentage of ripened grains as compared with the other leading varieties. Therefore, these studies were aimed to finding out of some measures for the improvement of ripening in rice. The studies had been carried out in the field and in the phytotron during the period of three years from 1970 to 1972 at the Crop Experiment Station in Suwon. The results obtained from the experiments could be summarized as follows: 1. The spikelet of Tongil was longer in length, more narrow in width, thinner in thickness, smaller in the volume of grains and lighter in grain weight than those of Jinheung. The specific gravity of grain was closely correlated with grain weight and the relationship with thickness, width and length was getting smaller in Jinheung. On the other hand, Tongil showed a different pattern from Jinheung. The relationship of the specific gravity with grain weight was the greatest and followed by that with the width, thickness and length, in order. 2. The distribution of grain weight selected by specific gravity was different from one variety to another. Most of grains of Jinheung were distributed over the specific gravity of 1.12 with its peak at 1.18, but many of grains of Tongil were distributed below 1.12 with its peak at 1.16. The brown/rough rice ratio was sharply declined below the specific gravity of 1.06 in Jinheung, but that of Tongil was not declined from the 1.20 to the 0.96. Accordingly, it seemed to be unfair to make the specific gravity criterion for ripened grains at 1.06 in the Tongil variety. 3. The increasing tendency of grain weight after flowering was different depending on varieties. Generally speaking, rice varieties originated from cold area showed a slow grain weight increase while Tongil was rapid except at lower temperature in late ripening stage. 4. In the late-tillered culms or weak culms, the number of spikelets was small and the percentage of ripened grains was low. Tongil produced more late-tillered culms and had a longer flowering duration especially at lower temperature, resulting in a lower percentage of ripened grains. 5. The leaf blade of Tongil was short, broad and errect, having light receiving status for photosynthesis was better. The photosynthetic activity of Tongil per unit leaf area was higher than that of Jinheung at higher temperature, but lower at lower temperature. 6. Tongil was highly resistant to lodging because of short culm length, and thick lower-internodes. Before flowering, Tongil had a relatively higher amount of sugars, phosphate, silicate, calcium, manganese and magnesium. 7. The number of spikelets of Tongil was much more than that of Jinheung. The negative correlation was observed between the number of spikelets and percentage of ripened grains in Jinheung, but no correlation was found in Tongil grown at higher temperature. Therefore, grain yield was increased with increased number of spikelets in Tongil. Anthesis was not occurred below 21$^{\circ}C$ in Tongil, so sterile spikelets were increased at lower temperature during flowering stage. 8. The root distribution of Jinheung was deeper than that of Tongil. The root activity of Tongil evaluated by $\alpha$-naphthylamine oxidation method, was higher than that of Jinheung at higher temperature, but lower at lower temperature. It is seemed to be related with discoloration of leaf blades. 9. Tongil had a better light receiving status for photosynthesis and a better productive structure with balance between photosynthesis and respiration, so it is seemed that tongil has more ideal plant type for getting of a higher grain yield as compared with Jinheung. 10. Solar radiation during the 10 days before to 30 days after flowering seemed enough for ripening in suwon, but the air temperature dropped down below 22$^{\circ}C$ beyond August 25. Therefore, it was believed that air temperature is one of ripening limiting factors in this case. 11. The optimum temperature for ripening in Jinheung was relatively lower than that of Tongil requriing more than $25^{\circ}C$. Air temperature below 21$^{\circ}C$ was one of limiting factors for ripening in Tongil. 12. It seemed that Jinheung has relatively high photosensitivity and moderate thermosensitivity, while Tongil has a low photosensitivity, high thermosensitivity and longer basic vegetative phase. 13. Under a condition of higher nitrogen application at late growing stage, the grain yield of Jinheung was increased with improvement of percentage of ripened grains, while grain yield of Tongil decreased due to decreasing the number of spikelets although photosynthetic activity after flowering was. increased. 14. The grain yield of Jinheung was decreased slightly in the late transplanting culture since its photosynthetic activity was relatively high at lower temperature, but that of Tonil was decreased due to its inactive photosynthetic activity at lower temperature. The highest yield of Tongil was obtained in the early transplanting culture. 15. Tongil was adapted to a higher fertilizer and dense transplanting, and the percentage of ripened grains was improved by shortening of the flowering duration with increased number of seedlings per hill. 16. The percentage of vigorous tillers was increased with a denser transplanting and increasing in number of seedlings per hill. 17. The possibility to improve percentage of ripened grains was shown with phosphate application at lower temperature. The above mentioned results are again summarized below. The Japonica type leading varieties should be flowered before August 20 to insure a satisfactory ripening of grains. Nitrogen applied should not be more than 7.5kg/10a as the basal-dressing and the remained nitrogen should be applied at the later growing stage to increase their photosynthetic activity. The morphological and physiological characteristics of Tongil, a semi-dwarf, Indica $\times$ Japonica hybrid variety, are very different from those of other leading rice varieties, requring changes in seed selection by specific gravity method, in milling and in the cultural practices. Considering the peculiar distribution of grains selected by the method and the brown/rough rice ratio, the specific gravity criterion for seed selection should be changed from the currently employed 1.06 to about 0.96 for Tongil. In milling process, it would be advisable to bear in mind the specific traits of Tongil grain appearance. Tongil is a variety with many weak tillers and under lower temperature condition flowering is delayed. Such characteristics result in inactivation of roots and leaf blades which affects substantially lowering of the percentage of ripened grains due to increased unfertilized spikelets. In addition, Tongil is adapted well to higher nitrogen application. Therefore, it would be recommended to transplant Tongil variety earlier in season under the condition of higer nitrogen, phosphate and silicate. A dense planting-space with three vigorous seedlings per hill should be practiced in this case. In order to manifest fully the capability of Tongil, several aspects such as the varietal improvement, culural practices and milling process should be more intensively considered in the future.he future.