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Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

The Study on Conservation and Management of Natural Habitat of Spleenworts on Samdo Island (Asplenium antiquum Makino), Jeju (Natural Monument No. 18) (천연기념물 제주 삼도 파초일엽 자생지 생육 및 관리 현황 연구)

  • Shin, Jin-Ho;Kim, Han;Lee, Na-Ra;Son, Ji-Won
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.280-291
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    • 2019
  • A. antiquum, first observed in Jeju Samdo Island in 1949, was designated as the Natural Monument No. 18 in December 1962 in recognition of its academic value. In Korea, it grows in nature only in Samdo in Jeju Island. Although its natural habitat was greatly damaged and almost destroyed due to firewood, stealing, etc. After the emancipation, it has been maintained by the transplantation and restoration. The site observed by this study has been managed as a restricted area since 2011. Since it has been about 20 years since the restoration of the native site in the 2000s, it is necessary to check the official management history records, such as the origin of transplantation and restoration to monitor the changes in the growth status and to control the habitat. As the results of this study, we have secured the records of cultural property management history, such as the identification of native species and the transplantation and restoration records. We also examined the change of the growth and development of A. antiquum 20 years after the restoration. There are no official records of the individuals transplanted to the restored natural habitat of A. antiquum in the 1970s and 1980s, and there was a controversy about the nativeness of those individuals that were restored and transplanted in 1974 since they were Japanese individuals. The studies of identifying native as the results of this study, we have secured the records of cultural property management history, such as the identification of native species and the transplantation and restoration records. We also examined the change of the growth and development of A. antiquum 20 years after the restoration. There are two sites in natural habitat in Samdo Island. A total of 65 individuals grow in three layers on three stone walls in a site while 29 individuals grow in two columns in the other site. A. antiquum grows in an evergreen broad-leaved forest dominated by Neolitsea sericea, and we did not find any other individuals of naturally growing A. antiquum outside the investigated site. This study checked the distribution of A. antiquum seedlings observed initially after the restoration. There were more than 300 seedling individuals, and we selected three densely populated sites for monitoring. There were 23 A. antiquum seedlings with 4 - 17 leaves per individual and the leaf length of 0.5 - 20 cm in monitoring site 1. There were 88 individuals with 5 - 6 leaves per individual and the leaf length of 1.3 - 10.4 cm in monitoring site 2 while there were 22 individuals with 5 - 9 leaves per individual and the leaf length of 4.5 - 12.1 cm in monitoring site 3. Although the natural habitat of A. antiquum was designated as a restricted public area in 2011, there is a high possibility that the habitat can be damaged because some activities, such as fishing and scuba diving are allowed. Therefore, it is necessary to enforce the law strictly, to provide sufficient education for the preservation of natural treasures, and to present accurate information about cultural assets.

The Prediction of Export Credit Guarantee Accident using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 수출신용보증 사고예측)

  • Cho, Jaeyoung;Joo, Jihwan;Han, Ingoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.83-102
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    • 2021
  • The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

An Exploratory Study on Marketing of Financial Services Companies in Korea (한국 금융회사 마케팅 현황에 대한 탐색 연구)

  • Chun, Sung Yong
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.111-133
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    • 2010
  • Marketing financial services used to be easier. Today, the competition in financial services is fierce. Not only has the competition become more intense, financial services have also changed structurally. In an environment with various customer needs and severe competitions, the marketing in financial services industry is getting more difficult and more important than before. However, there are still not enough studies on financial services marketing in Korea whereas lots of research papers have been published frequently in some international journals. The purpose of this paper is (1)to review the literature on financial services marketing, (2)to investigate current marketing activities based on in-depth interview with financial marketing managers in Korea, and (3)to suggest some implications for future research on the financial services marketing. Financial products are not consumer products. In fact, they are not products at all in the way product marketing is usually described. Nor are they altogether like services. The financial industry operates in a unique way, and its marketing tasks are correspondingly complex. However, the literature review shows that there has been a lack of basic studies which dealt with inherent characteristics of financial services marketing compared to the research on marketing in other industries. Many studies in domestic marketing journals have so far focused only on the general customer behaviors and the special issues in some financial industries. However, for more effective financial services marketing, we have to answer following questions. Is there any difference between financial service marketing and consumer packaged goods marketing? What are the differences between the financial services marketing and other services marketing such as education and health services? Are there different ways of marketing among banks, securities firms, insurance firms, and credit card companies? In other words, we need more detailed research as well as basic studies about the financial services marketing. For example, we need concrete definitions of financial services marketing, bank marketing, securities firm marketing, and etc. It is also required to compare the characteristics of each marketing within the financial services industry. The products sold in each market have different characteristics such as duration and degree of risk-taking. It means that there are sub-categories in financial services marketing. We have to consider them in the future research on the financial services marketing. It is also necessary to study customer decision making process in the financial markets. There have been little research on how customers search and process information, compare alternatives, make final decision, and repeat their choices. Because financial services have some unique characteristics, we need different understandings in the customer behaviors compared to the behaviors in other service markets. And also considering the rapid growth in financial markets and upcoming severe competition between domestic and global financial companies, it is time to start more systematic and detailed research on financial services marketing in Korea. In the second part of this paper, I analyzed the results of in-depth interview with 20 marketing managers of financial services companies in Korea. As a result, I found that the role of marketing departments in Korean financial companies are mainly focused on the short-term activities such as sales support, promotion, and CRM data analysis although the size and history of marketing departments to some extent show a sign of maturity. Most companies established official marketing departments before 2001. Average number of employees in a marketing department is about 58. However, marketing managers in eight companies(40% of the sample) still think that the purpose of marketing is only to support and manage general sales activities. It shows that some companies have sales-oriented concept rather than marketing-oriented concept. I also found three key words which marketing managers think importantly in financial services markets. They are (1)Trust in customer relationship, (2)Brand differentiation, and (3)Rapid response to customer needs. 50% of the sample support that "Trust" is the most important key word in the financial services marketing. It is interesting that 80% of banks and securities companies think that "Trust" is the most important thing, whereas managers in credit card companies consider "Rapid response to customer needs" as the most important key word in their market. In addition, there are different problems recognition of marketing managers depending on the types of financial industries they belong to. For example, in the case of banks and insurance companies, marketing managers consider "a lack of communication with other departments" as the most serious problem. On the other hand, in the case of securities firms, "a lack of utilization of customer data" is the most serious problem. These results imply that there are different important factors for the customer satisfaction depending on the types of financial industries, and managers have to consider them when marketing financial products in more effective ways. For example, It will be necessary for marketing managers to study different important factors which affect customer satisfaction, repeat purchase, degree of risk-taking, and possibility of cross-selling according to the types of financial industries. I also suggested six hypothetical propositions for the future research.

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Developing a Scale for Measuring the Corporate Social Responsibility Activities of Korea Corporation: Focusing on the Consumers' Awareness (한국형 기업의 사회적 책임활동 측정을 위한 척도 개발 연구: 소비자 인식을 중심으로)

  • Park, Jongchul;Kim, Kyungjin;Lee, Hanjoon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.27-52
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    • 2010
  • It is not new that today's business organizations are expected to exhibit ethical and moral management and to carry out social responsibility as a good corporate citizen. Since South Korea emerged as a newly industrialized country during the 1980s, Korean corporations have become active in carrying out their social responsibility as a good corporate citizen to society. In spite of the short history of corporate social responsibility, Korean companies have actively participated in corporate philanthropy. Corporations' significant donations to various social causes, no-lay-off policies, corporate volunteerism and green marketing are evidences of their commitment to corporate citizenship. Corporate social responsibility is now an essential management practice whereby corporation can strengthen its sustainable value creation processes by enhancing the trust assets underlying the relationships between the business and the stakeholders. Much of the conceptual work in the area of corporate social responsibility(CSR) has originated from researches conducted in the management field. Carroll(1979) proposed that corporations have four types of social responsibilities: economic, legal, ethical and philanthropic responsibility. Most past research has investigated CSR and its impact on consumers' attitudes toward the corporations and corporate performances. Although there exists a large body of literature on how consumers perceive and respond to CSR, the majority of past studies were conducted in the United States. The stability and applicability of past findings need to be tested across different national/cultural settings, especially since corporate social responsibility is a reflection of implicit conformation with the expectations and criticism that society may have toward a corporation(Matten and Moon, 2004). In this study, we explored whether people in Korea perceive CSR of Korean corporations in the same four dimensions as done in the United States and what were the measurement items tapping each of these four dimensions. In order to investigate the dimensions of CSR and the measurement items for CSR perceived by Korean people, nine focus group interviews were conducted with several stakeholder groups(two with undergraduate students, two with graduate students, three with general consumers, and two with NGO groups). Scripts from the interviews revealed that the Korean stakeholders perceived four types of CSR which are the same as those proposed by Carroll(1979). However we found CSR issues unique to Korean corporations. For example for the economic responsibility, Korean people mentioned that the corporation needed to contribute to the economic development of the country by generating corporate profits. For the legal responsibility, Koreans included the "corporation need to follow the consumer protection law." For the ethical responsibility, they considered that the corporation needed to not promote false advertisement. In addition, Koreans thought that an ethical company should do transparent management. For the philanthropic responsibility, people in Korea thought that a corporation needed to return parts of its profits to the society for the betterment of society. The 28 items were developed based on the results of the nine focus group interviews, while considering the scale developed by Maignan and Ferrell(2001). Following the procedure proposed by Churchill(1979), we started by developing an item poll consisting of 28 items and purified the initial pool of items through exploratory, confirmatory factor analyses. 176 samples were sued for this analysis. Confirmatory factor analysis was performed on the 28 items in order to verify the underlying four factor structure. Study 1 provided new measurement items for tapping the Korean CSR dimensions, which can be useful for the future studies exploring the effects of CSR on Korean consumers' attitudes toward the corporations and corporate performances. And we found the CSR scale(17 items) has good reliability, discriminant validity and nomological validity. Economic Responsibility: "XYZ company continuously improves the quality of our products", "XYZ company has a procedure in place to respond to customer complaint", "XYZ company contributes to the economic development of our country by generating profits", "XYZ company is eager to hire people". Legal Responsibility: "XYZ company's products meet legal standards", "XYZ company seeks to comply with all laws regulating hiring and employee benefits", "XYZ company honors contractual obligations to its suppliers", "XYZ company's managers try to comply with the law related to the business operation". Ethical Responsibility: "XYZ company has a comprehensive code of conduct", "XYZ company does not promote a false or misleading advertisement", "XYZ company seems to conduct a transparent business", "XYZ company does a fair business with its suppliers or sub-contractors". Philanthropic Responsibility: "XYZ company encourages partnerships with local businesses and schools", "XYZ company supports sports and cultural activities", "XYZ company gives adequate contributions to charities considering its business size", "XYZ company encourages employees to support our community". Study 2 was condusted for comprehensive validity. 655 samples were used for this anlysis. Collected samples were tested by factor analysis and Crnbach's Alpha coefficiednts and were found to be satisfactory in terms of validity and reliability. Furthermore, fitness of the measurement model was tested by using conformatory factor analysis. χ2=880.73(df=160), GFI=0.891, AGFI=0.854, NFI=0.908, NNFI=0.913, RMR=0.059, RMESA=0.070. We hope that CSR scale could greatly facilitate research on Corporate social resposibility, it is by no means the final answer.

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Shopping Value, Shopping Goal and WOM - Focused on Electronic-goods Buyers (쇼핑 가치 추구 성향에 따른 쇼핑 목표와 공유 의도 차이에 관한 연구 - 전자제품 구매고객을 중심으로)

  • Park, Kyoung-Won;Park, Ju-Young
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.68-79
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    • 2009
  • The interplay between hedonic and utilitarian attributes has assumed special significance in recent years; it has been proposed that consumption offerings should be viewed as experiences that stimulate both cognitions and feelings rather than as mere products or services. This research builds on previous work on hedonic versus utilitarian benefits, regulatory focus theory, customer satisfaction to address two question: (1) Is the shopping goal at the point of purchase different from the shopping value? and (2) Is the customer loyalty after the use different from the shopping value and shopping goal? We surveyed 345 peoples those who have bought the electronic-goods within 6 months. This research dealt with the shopping value which is consisted of 2 types, hedonic and utilitarian. Those who pursue the hedonic shopping value may prefer the pleasure of purchasing experience to the product itself. They tend to prefer atmosphere, arousal of the shopping experience. Consistent with previous research, we use the term "hedonic" to refer to their aesthetic, experiential and enjoyment-related value. On the contrary, Those who pursue the utilitarian shopping value may prefer the reasonable buying. It may be more functional. Consistent with previous research, we use the term "utilitarian" to refer to the functional, instrumental, and practical value of consumption offerings. Holbrook(1999) notes that consumer value is an experience that results from the consumption of such benefits. In the context of cell phones for example, the phone's battery life and sound volume are utilitarian benefits, whereas aesthetic appeal from its shape and color are hedonic benefits. Likewise, in the case of a car, fuel economics and safety are utilitarian benefits whereas the sunroof and the luxurious interior are hedonic benefits. The shopping goals are consisted of the promotion focus goal and the prevention focus goal, based on the self-regulatory focus theory. The promotion focus is characterized into focusing ideal self because they are oriented to wishes and vision. The promotion focused individuals are tend to be more risk taking. They are more sensitive to hope and achievement. On the contrary, the prevention focused individuals are characterized into focusing the responsibilities because they are oriented to safety. The prevention focused individuals are tend to be more risk avoiding. We wanted to test the relation among the shopping value, shopping goal and customer loyalty. Customers show the positive or negative feelings comparing with the expectation level which customers have at the point of the purchase. If the result were bigger than the expectation, customers may feel positive feeling such as delight or satisfaction and they would want to share their feelings with other people. And they want to buy those products again in the future time. There is converging evidence that the types of goals consumers expect to be fulfilled by the utilitarian dimension of a product are different from those they seek from the hedonic dimension (Chernev 2004). Specifically, whereas consumers expect the fulfillment of product prevention goals on the utilitarian dimension, they expect the fulfillment of promotion goals on the hedonic dimension (Chernev 2004; Chitturi, Raghunathan, and Majahan 2007; Higgins 1997, 2001) According to the regulatory focus theory, prevention goals are those that ought to be met. Fulfillment of prevention goals in the context of product consumption eliminates or significantly reduces the probability of a painful experience, thus making consumers experience emotions that result from fulfillment of prevention goals such as confidence and securities. On the contrary, fulfillment of promotion goals are those that a person aspires to meet, such as "looking cool" or "being sophisticated." Fulfillment of promotion goals in the context of product consumption significantly increases the probability of a pleasurable experience, thus enabling consumers to experience emotions that result from the fulfillment of promotion goals. The proposed conceptual framework captures that the relationships among hedonic versus utilitarian shopping values and promotion versus prevention shopping goals respectively. An analysis of the consequence of the fulfillment and frustration of utilitarian and hedonic value is theoretically worthwhile. It is also substantively relevant because it helps predict post-consumption behavior such as the promotion versus prevention shopping goals orientation. Because our primary goal is to understand how the post consumption feelings influence the variable customer loyalty: word of mouth (Jacoby and Chestnut 1978). This research result is that the utilitarian shopping value gives the positive influence to both of the promotion and prevention goal. However the influence to the prevention goal is stronger. On the contrary, hedonic shopping value gives influence to the promotion focus goal only. Additionally, both of the promotion and prevention goal show the positive relation with customer loyalty. However, the positive relation with promotion goal and customer loyalty is much stronger. The promotion focus goal gives the influence to the customer loyalty. On the contrary, the prevention focus goal relates at the low level of relation with customer loyalty than that of the promotion goal. It could be explained that it is apt to get framed the compliment of people into 'gain-non gain' situation. As the result, for those who have the promotion focus are motivated to deliver their own feeling to other people eagerly. Conversely the prevention focused individual are more sensitive to the 'loss-non loss' situation. The research result is consistent with pre-existent researches. There is a conceptual parallel between necessities-needs-utilitarian benefits and luxuries-wants-hedonic benefits (Chernev 2004; Chitturi, Raghunathan and Majaha 2007; Higginns 1997; Kivetz and Simonson 2002b). In addition, Maslow's hierarchy of needs and the precedence principle contends luxuries-wants-hedonic benefits higher than necessities-needs-utilitarian benefits. Chitturi, Raghunathan and Majaha (2007) show that consumers are focused more on the utilitarian benefits than on the hedonic benefits of a product until their minimum expectation of fulfilling prevention goals are met. Furthermore, a utilitarian benefit is a promise of a certain level of functionality by the manufacturer or the retailer. When the promise is not fulfilled, customers blame the retailer and/or the manufacturer. When negative feelings are attributable to an entity, customers feel angry. However in the case of hedonic benefit, the customer, not the manufacturer, determines at the time of purchase whether the product is stylish and attractive. Under such circumstances, customers are more likely to blame themselves than the manufacturer if their friends do not find the product stylish and attractive. Therefore, not meeting minimum utilitarian expectations of functionality generates a much more intense negative feelings, such as anger than a less intense feeling such as disappointment or dissatisfactions. The additional multi group analysis of this research shows the same result. Those who are unsatisfactory customers who have the prevention focused goal shows higher relation with WOM, comparing with satisfactory customers. The research findings in this article could have significant implication for the personal selling fields to increase the effectiveness and the efficiency of the sales such that they can develop the sales presentation strategy for the customers. For those who are the hedonic customers may be apt to show more interest to the promotion goal. Therefore it may work to strengthen the design, style or new technology of the products to the hedonic customers. On the contrary for the utilitarian customers, it may work to strengthen the price competitiveness. On the basis of the result from our studies, we demonstrated a correspondence among hedonic versus utilitarian and promotion versus prevention goal, WOM. Similarly, we also found evidence of the moderator effects of satisfaction after use, between the prevention goal and WOM. Even though the prevention goal has the low level of relation to WOM, those who are not satisfied show higher relation to WOM. The relation between the prevention goal and WOM is significantly different according to the satisfaction versus unsatisfaction. In addition, improving the promotion emotions of cheerfulness and excitement and the prevention emotion of confidence and security will further improve customer loyalty. A related potential further research could be to examine whether hedonic versus utilitarian, promotion versus prevention goals improve customer loyalty for services as well. Under the budget and time constraints, designers and managers are often compelling to choose among various attributes. If there is no budget or time constraints, perhaps the best solution is to maximize both hedonic and utilitarian dimension of benefits. However, they have to make trad-off process between various attributes. For the designers and managers have to keep in mind that without hedonic benefit satisfaction of the product it may hard to lead the customers to the customer loyalty.

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Matrix Metalloproteinase in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (특발성 폐섬유화증환자의 기관지폐포세척액 및 폐포대식세포 배양액의 Matrix metalloproteinase의 변화)

  • Park, Joo-Hun;Shim, Tae-Sun;Lim, Chae-Man;Koh, Youn-Suck;Lee, Sang-Do;Kim, Woo-Sung;Kim, Won-Dong;Kim, Dong-Soon
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.303-314
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    • 2001
  • Background : Matrix metalioproteinase(MMP)-2 and MMP-9 have been known to play an important role in cell migration and the tissue remodeling process by type IV collagen lysis, a major component of the basement membrane. Intra-alveolar fibrosis, secondary to an injury to the basement membrane of the alveolar epithelial lining, is a major process in the pathogenesis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis(IPF). Therefore, MMP-2 and MMP-9 was hypothesized to play an important role in IPF pathogenesis. As a result, their level may reflect the activity or prognosis. Method : Forty one progressive IPF patients(age $59.82{\pm}1.73$ years, M:F=23:18), 16 patients with stable IPF for more than one year without therapy(age : $63.6{\pm}2.8$ years, M:F=13:3), and 7 normal controls were enrolled in this study. The MMP-2 and MMP-9 levels in the BAL fluid and alveolar macrophage conditioned media(AM-CM) were measured by zymography and the TIMP-1 level was measured by ELISA. Results : 1) The MMP-2 level in BALF was highest in the progressive IPF group ($1.36{\pm}0.28$) followed by the stable group ($0.46{\pm}0.13$) and the controls ($0.08{\pm}0.09$), which was statistically significant. The MMP-9 level of the IPF ($0.31{\pm}0.058$) and the stable group ($0.22{\pm}0.078$) were higher than that of the control group ($0.002{\pm}0.004$). In the AM-CM, only MMP-9 was detected, which was significantly higher in IPF group ($0.80{\pm}0.1O$) than in the control group($0.23{\pm}0.081$). The TIMP-1 level was also higher in both the IPF ($36.34{\pm}8.62\;{\mu}g/ml$) and stable group ($20.83{\pm}8.53\;{\mu}g/ml$) compared to the control group ($2.80{\pm}1.05\;{\mu}g/ml$) (p<0.05). 3) There was a correlation between the MMP-2 level in the BALF with the total cell number(r=0.298) and neutrophils(r=0.357) (p<0.05), and the MMP-9 level with the number of neutrophils (r=0.407) and lymphocytes (r=0.574)(p<0.05). The TIMP-1 level correlated with the total number of cell (r=0.338, p<0.05) and neutrophils(r=0.449, p=0.059). Conclusion : Both MMP and TIMP appear to play an important role in IPF pathogenesis, and their level may reflect the disease activity.

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무령왕릉보존에 있어서의 지질공학적 고찰

  • 서만철;최석원;구민호
    • Proceedings of the KSEEG Conference
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    • 2001.05b
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    • pp.42-63
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    • 2001
  • The detail survey on the Songsanri tomb site including the Muryong royal tomb was carried out during the period from May 1 , 1996 to April 30, 1997. A quantitative analysis was tried to find changes of tomb itself since the excavation. Main subjects of the survey are to find out the cause of infiltration of rain water and groundwater into the tomb and the tomb site, monitoring of the movement of tomb structure and safety, removal method of the algae inside the tomb, and air controlling system to solve high humidity condition and dew inside the tomb. For these purposes, detail survery inside and outside the tombs using a electronic distance meter and small airplane, monitoring of temperature and humidity, geophysical exploration including electrical resistivity, geomagnetic, gravity and georadar methods, drilling, measurement of physical and chemical properties of drill core and measurement of groundwater permeability were conducted. We found that the center of the subsurface tomb and the center of soil mound on ground are different 4.5 meter and 5 meter for the 5th tomb and 7th tomb, respectively. The fact has caused unequal stress on the tomb structure. In the 7th tomb (the Muryong royal tomb), 435 bricks were broken out of 6025 bricks in 1972, but 1072 bricks are broken in 1996. The break rate has been increased about 250% for just 24 years. The break rate increased about 290% in the 6th tomb. The situation in 1996 is the result for just 24 years while the situation in 1972 was the result for about 1450 years. Status of breaking of bircks represents that a severe problem is undergoing. The eastern wall of the Muryong royal tomb is moving toward inside the tomb with the rate of 2.95 mm/myr in rainy season and 1.52 mm/myr in dry season. The frontal wall shows biggest movement in the 7th tomb having a rate of 2.05 mm/myr toward the passage way. The 6th tomb shows biggest movement among the three tombs having the rate of 7.44mm/myr and 3.61mm/myr toward east for the high break rate of bricks in the 6th tomb. Georadar section of the shallow soil layer represents several faults in the top soil layer of the 5th tomb and 7th tomb. Raninwater flew through faults tnto the tomb and nearby ground and high water content in nearby ground resulted in low resistance and high humidity inside tombs. High humidity inside tomb made a good condition for algae living with high temperature and moderate light source. The 6th tomb is most severe situation and the 7th tomb is the second in terms of algae living. Artificial change of the tomb environment since the excavation, infiltration of rain water and groundwater into the tombsite and bad drainage system had resulted in dangerous status for the tomb structure. Main cause for many problems including breaking of bricks, movement of tomb walls and algae living is infiltration of rainwater and groundwater into the tomb site. Therefore, protection of the tomb site from high water content should be carried out at first. Waterproofing method includes a cover system over the tomvsith using geotextile, clay layer and geomembrane and a deep trench which is 2 meter down to the base of the 5th tomb at the north of the tomv site. Decrease and balancing of soil weight above the tomb are also needed for the sfety of tomb structures. For the algae living inside tombs, we recommend to spray K101 which developed in this study on the surface of wall and then, exposure to ultraviolet light sources for 24 hours. Air controlling system should be changed to a constant temperature and humidity system for the 6th tomb and the 7th tomb. It seems to much better to place the system at frontal room and to ciculate cold air inside tombs to solve dew problem. Above mentioned preservation methods are suggested to give least changes to tomb site and to solve the most fundmental problems. Repairing should be planned in order and some special cares are needed for the safety of tombs in reparing work. Finally, a monitoring system measuring tilting of tomb walls, water content, groundwater level, temperature and humidity is required to monitor and to evaluate the repairing work.

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Comparisons of Unicortical and Bicortical Lateral Mass Screws in the Cervical Spine : Safety vs Strength (경추부의 후관절 나사못 고정술에서 단피질삽입법과 양피질 삽입법 간의 특성에 관한 비교)

  • Park, Choon-Keun;Hwang, Jang-Hoe;Ji, Chul;Lee, Jae Un;Sung, Jae Hoon;Choi, Seung-Jin;Lee, Sang-Won;Seybold, Eric;Park, Sung-Chan;Cho, Kyung-Suok;Park, Chun-Kun;Kang, Joon-Ki
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.30 no.10
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    • pp.1210-1219
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    • 2001
  • Introduction : The purpose of this study was to analyze the safety, pullout strength and radiographic characteristics of unicortical and bicortical screws of cervical facet within cadaveric specimens and evaluate the influence of level of training on the positioning of these screws. Methods : Twenty-one cadavers, mean 78.9 years of age, underwent bilateral placement of 3.5mm AO lateral mass screw from C3-C6(n=168) using a slight variation of the Magerl technique. Intraoperative imaging was not used. The right side(unicortical) utilized only 14mm screws(effective length of 11mm) while on the left side to determine the length of the screw after the ventral cortex had been drilled. Three spine surgeons(attending, fellow, chief resident) with varying levels of spine training performed the procedure on seven cadavers each. All spines were harvested and lateral radiographs were taken. Individual cervical vertebrae were carefully dissected and then axial radiographs were taken. The screws were evaluated clinically and radiographically for their safety. Screws were graded clinically for their safety with respect to the spinal cord, facet joint, nerve root and vertebral artery. The grades consisted of the following categories : "satisfactory", "at risk" and "direct injury". Each screw was also graded according to its zone placement. Screw position was quantified by measuring a sagittal angle from the lateral radiograph and an axial angle from the axial radiograph. Pull-out force was determined for all screws using a material testing machine. Results : Dissection revealed that fifteen screws on the left side actually had only unicortical and not bicortical purchase as intended. The majority of screws(92.8%) were satisfactory in terms of safety. There were no injuries to the spinal cord. On the right side(unicortical), 98.9% of the screws were "satisfactory" and on the left side(bicortical) 68.1% were "satisfactory". There was a 5.8% incidence of direct arterial injury and a 17.4% incidence of direct nerve root injury with the bicortical screws. There were no "direct injuries" with the unicortical screws for the nerve root or vertebral artery. The unicortical screws had a 21.4% incidence of direct injury of the facet joint, while the bicortical screws had a 21.7% incidence. The majority of "direct injury" of bicortical screws were placed by the surgeon with the least experience. The performance of the resident surgeon was significantly different from the attending or fellow(p<0.05) in terms of safety of the nerve root and vertebral artery. The attending's performance was significantly better than the resident or fellow(p<0.05) in terms of safety of the facet joint. There was no relationship between the safety of a screw and its zone placement. The axial deviation angle measured $23.5{\pm}6.6$ degrees and $19.8{\pm}7.9$ degrees for the unicortical and bicortical screws, respectively. The resident surgeon had a significantly lower angle than the attending or fellow(p<0.05). The sagittal angle measured $66.3{\pm}7.0$ degrees and $62.3{\pm}7.9$ degrees for the unicortical and bicortical screws, respectively. The attending had a significantly lower sagittal angle than the fellow or resident(p<0.05). Thirty-three screws that entered the facet joint were tested for pull-out strength but excluded from the data because they were not lateral mass screws per-se and had deviated substantially from the intended final trajectory. The mean pull-out force for all screws was $542.9{\pm}296.6N$. There was no statistically significant difference between the pull-out force for unicortical($519.9{\pm}286.9N$) and bicortical($565.2{\pm}306N$) screws. There was no significant difference in pull-out strengths with respect to zone placement. Conclusion : It is our belief that the risk associated with bicortical purchase mandates formal spine training if it is to be done safely and accurately. Unicortical screws are safer regardless of level of training. It is apparent that 14mm lateral mass screws placed in a supero-lateral trajectory in the adult cervical spine provide an equivalent strength with a much lower risk of injury than the longer bicortical screws placed in a similar orientation.

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The Effect of Corporate Association on the Perceived Risk of the Product (소비자의 제품 지각 위험에 대한 기업연상과 효과: 지식과 관여의 조절적 역활을 중심으로)

  • Cho, Hyun-Chul;Kang, Suk-Hou;Kim, Jin-Yong
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2008
  • Brown and Dacin (1997) have investigated the relationship between corporate associations and product evaluations. Their study focused on the effects of associations with a company's corporate ability (CA) and its corporate social responsibility (CSR) on consumers' product evaluations. Their study has found that both of CA and CSR influenced product evaluation but CA association has a stronger effect than CSR associations. Brown and Dacin (1997) have, however, claimed that there are few researches on how corporate association impacts product responses. Accordingly, some of researchers have found the variables to moderate or to mediate the relationship between the corporate association and the product responses. In particular, there has been existed a few of studies that tested the influence of the reputation on the product-relevant perceived risk, but the effects of two types of the corporate association on the product-relevant perceived risk were not identified so far. The primary goal of this article is to identify and empirically examine some variables to moderate the effects of CA association and CSR association on the perceived risk of the product. In this articles, we take the concept of the corporate associations that Brown and Dacin (1997) had proposed. CA association is those association related to the company's expertise in producing and delivering its outputs and CSR association reflected the organization's status and activities with respect to its perceived societal obligations. Also, this study defines the risk, which is the uncertainty or loss of the product and corporate that consumers have taken in a particular purchase decision or after having purchased. The risk is classified into product-relevant performance risk and financial risk. Performance risk is the possibility or the consequence of a product not functioning at some expected level and financial risk is the monetary loss one perceives to be incurring if a product does not function at some expected level. In relation to consumer's knowledge, expert consumers have much of the experiences or knowledge of the product in consumer position and novice consumers does not. The model tested in this article are shown in Figure 1. The model indicates that both of CA association and CSR association influence on performance risk and financial risk. In addition, the effects of CA and CSR are moderated by product category knowledge (product knowledge) and product category involvement (product involvement). In this study, the relationships between the corporate association and product-relevant perceived risk are hypothesized as the following form. For example, Hypothesis 1a($H_{1a}$) is represented that CA association has a positive influence on the performance risk of consumer. Also, the hypotheses that identified some variables to moderate the effects of two types of corporate association on the perceived risk of the product are laid down. One of the hypotheses of the interaction effect is Hypothesis 3a($H_{3a}$), it is described that consumer's knowledges of the product moderates the negative relationship between CA association and product-relevant performance risk. A field experiment was conducted in order to examine our model. The company tested was not real but imagined to meet the internal validity. Water purifiers were used for our study. Four scenarios have been developed and described as the imaginary company: Type A with both of superior CA and CSR, Type B with superior CSR and inferior CA, Type C with superior CA and inferior CSR, and Type D with both inferior of CA and CSR. The respondents of this study were classified into four groups. One type of four scenarios (Type A, B, C, or D) in its questionnaire was given to the respondent who filled out questions. Data were collected by means of a self-administered questionnaire to the respondents, chosen in convenience. A total of 300 respondents filled out the questionnaire but 207 were used for further analysis. Table 1 indicates that the scales in this study are reliable because the range of coefficients of Cronbach's $\alpha$ are from 0.85 to 0.92. The composite reliability is in the range of 0,85 to 0,92 and average variance extracted is in 0.72-0.98 range that is higher than the base level of 0.6. As shown in Table 2, the values for CFI, NNFI, root-mean-square error approximation (RMSEA), and standardized root-mean-square residual (SRMR) are acceptably close to the standards suggested by Hu and Bentler (1999):.95 for CFI and NNFI,.06 for RMSEA, and.08 for SRMR. We also tested discriminant validity provided by Fornell and Larcker (1981). As shown in Table 2, we found strong evidence for discriminant validity between each possible pair of latent constructs in all samples. Given that these batteries of overall goodness-of-fit indices were accurate and that the model was developed on theoretical bases, and given the high level of consistency across samples, this enables us to proceed the previously defined scales. We used the moderated hierarchical regression analysis to test the influence of the corporate association(CA and CSR associations) on product-relevant perceived risk(performance and financial risks) and to identify the variables moderating the relationship between the corporate association and product-relevant performance risk. In this study, dependent variables are performance and financial risk. CA and CSR associations are described the independent variables. The moderating variables are product category knowledge and product category involvement. The results are, as expected, found that CA association has statistically a significant influence on the perceived risk of the product, but CSR association does not. Product category knowledge and involvement moderate the relationship between the CA association and the perceived risk of the product. However, the effect of CSR association on the perceived risk of the product is not moderated by the consumers' knowledge and involvement. For this result, it is necessary for a corporate to inform its customers CA association more than CSR association so that they could be felt to be the reduction of the perceived risk. The important theoretical contribution of this research is the meanings that two types of corporate association that Brown and Dacin(1997), and Brown(1998) have proposed replicated the difference of the effects on product evaluation. According to Hunter(2001), it was an important affair to accomplish the validity of a particular study and we had to take about ten studies to deduce a strict study. Next, there is the contribution of the this study to find that the effects of corporate association on the perceived risk of the product are varied by the moderator variables. In particular, the moderating effect of knowledge on the relationship between corporate association and product-relevant perceived risk has not been tested in Korea. In the managerial implications of this research, we suggest the necessity to stress the ability that corporate manufactures the product well(CA association) than the accomplishment of corporate's social obligation(CSR association). This study suffers from various limitations that imply future research directions. The moderating effects of product category knowledge and involvement on the relationship between corporate association and perceived risk need to be replicated. Next, future research could explore whether the mediated effects of the perceived risk has the relationship between corporate association and consumer's product purchase. In addition, to ensure the external validity of the study will be needed to use realistic company, not artificial.

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