Comparison of Single-Breath and Intra-Breath Method in Measuring Diffusing Capacity for Carbon Monoxide of the Lung (일산화탄소 폐확산능검사에서 단회호흡법과 호흡내검사법의 비교)
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- Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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- v.42 no.4
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- pp.555-568
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- 1995
Background: It is most physiologic to measure the diffusing capacity of the lung by using oxygen, but it is so difficult to measure partial pressure of oxygen in the capillary blood of the lung that in clinical practice it is measured by using carbon monoxide, and single-breath diffusing capacity method is used most widely. However, since the process of withholding the breath for 10 seconds after inspiration to the total lung capacity is very hard to practice for patients who suffer from cough, dyspnea, etc, the intra-breath lung diffusing capacity method which requires a single exhalation of low-flow rate without such process was devised. In this study, we want to know whether or not there is any significant difference in the diffusing capacity of the lung measured by the single-breath and intra-breath methods, and if any, which factors have any influence. Methods: We chose randomly 73 persons without regarding specific disease, and after conducting 3 times the flow-volume curve test, we selected forced vital capacity(FVC), percent of predicted forced vital capacity, forced expiratory volume within 1 second(
Background: Although graded exercise stress tests are widely used for the evaluation of cardiorespiratory performance, normal standards on respiratory gas exchange and ventilatory functions at maximal exercise in Koreans have not been well established. The purpose of this study is to provide reference values on these by sex and age, along with derivation of some of their prediction equations. Method: Symptom-limited maximal exercise test was carried out by Bruce protocol in 1,000 healthy adults consisting of 603 males and 397 females, aged 20~66 years. Among them VC,
Background: Cytokeratin 19 is a subunit of cytokeratin intermediate filament expressed in simple epithelia such as respiratory epithelial cells and their malignant counterparts. An immunoradiometric assay is available to detect a fragment of the cytokeratin, referred to as Cyfra 21-1 in the serum. This study was conducted to evaluate the clinical utility of this new marker in the diagnosis of lung cancer compared with established markers of squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC Ag) and carcino-embryonic antigen(CEA). In addition, we compared the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of Cyfra 21-1 with those of SCC Ag in squamous cell carcinoma of the lung. We also measured the level of Cyfra 21-1 in the different stages of squamous cell carcinoma of the lung. Method: We measured Cyfra 21-1(ELSA-CYFRA 21-1), SCC Ag(ABBOTT SCC RIABEAD) and CEA(ELSA2-CEA) in 79 patients with primary lung cancer and in 78 persons as a comparison group including 32 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, 23 patients with benign lung disease and 23 cases with healthy individual. Cyfra 21-1 is measured by a solid-phase immunoradiometric assay(CIS Bio International, France) based on the two-site sandwich method. SCC Ag is measured by a radioimmunoassay(Abbott Laboratories, USA). CEA is measured by a immunoradiometric assay(CIS Bio International, France). All data were expressed as the mean
1. Introduction Today Internet is recognized as an important way for the transaction of products and services. According to the data surveyed by the National Statistical Office, the on-line transaction in 2007 for a year, 15.7656 trillion, shows a 17.1%(2.3060 trillion won) increase over last year, of these, the amount of B2C has been increased 12.0%(10.2258 trillion won). Like this, because the entry barrier of on-line market of Korea is low, many retailers could easily enter into the market. So the bigger its scale is, but on the other hand, the tougher its competition is. Particularly due to the Internet and innovation of IT, the existing market has been changed into the perfect competitive market(Srinivasan, Rolph & Kishore, 2002). In the early years of on-line business, they think that the main reason for success is a moderate price, they are awakened to its importance of on-line service quality with tough competition. If it's not sure whether customers can be provided with what they want, they can use the Web sites, perhaps they can trust their products that had been already bought or not, they have a doubt its viability(Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhotra, 2005). Customers can directly reserve and issue their air tickets irrespective of place and time at the Web sites of travel agencies or airlines, but its empirical studies about these Web sites for reserving and issuing air tickets are insufficient. Therefore this study goes on for following specific objects. First object is to measure service quality and service recovery of Web sites for reserving and issuing air tickets. Second is to look into whether above on-line service quality and on-line service recovery have an impact on overall service quality. Third is to seek for the relation with overall service quality and customer satisfaction, then this customer satisfaction and loyalty intention. 2. Theoretical Background 2.1 On-line Service Quality Barnes & Vidgen(2000; 2001a; 2001b; 2002) had invented the tool to measure Web sites' quality four times(called WebQual). The WebQual 1.0, Step one invented a measuring item for information quality based on QFD, and this had been verified by students of UK business school. The Web Qual 2.0, Step two invented for interaction quality, and had been judged by customers of on-line bookshop. The WebQual 3.0, Step three invented by consolidating the WebQual 1.0 for information quality and the WebQual2.0 for interactionquality. It includes 3-quality-dimension, information quality, interaction quality, site design, and had been assessed and confirmed by auction sites(e-bay, Amazon, QXL). Furtheron, through the former empirical studies, the authors changed sites quality into usability by judging that usability is a concept how customers interact with or perceive Web sites and It is used widely for accessing Web sites. By this process, WebQual 4.0 was invented, and is consist of 3-quality-dimension; information quality, interaction quality, usability, 22 items. However, because WebQual 4.0 is focusing on technical part, it's usable at the Website's design part, on the other hand, it's not usable at the Web site's pleasant experience part. Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2002; 2005) had invented the measure for measuring on-line service quality in 2002 and 2005. The study in 2002 divided on-line service quality into 5 dimensions. But these were not well-organized, so there needed to be studied again totally. So Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2005) re-worked out the study about on-line service quality measure base on 2002's study and invented E-S-QUAL. After they invented preliminary measure for on-line service quality, they made up a question for customers who had purchased at amazon.com and walmart.com and reassessed this measure. And they perfected an invention of E-S-QUAL consists of 4 dimensions, 22 items of efficiency, system availability, fulfillment, privacy. Efficiency measures assess to sites and usability and others, system availability measures accurate technical function of sites and others, fulfillment measures promptness of delivering products and sufficient goods and others and privacy measures the degree of protection of data about their customers and so on. 2.2 Service Recovery Service industries tend to minimize the losses by coping with service failure promptly. This responses of service providers to service failure mean service recovery(Kelly & Davis, 1994). Bitner(1990) went on his study from customers' view about service providers' behavior for customers to recognize their satisfaction/dissatisfaction at service point. According to them, to manage service failure successfully, exact recognition of service problem, an apology, sufficient description about service failure and some tangible compensation are important. Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2005) approached the service recovery from how to measure, rather than how to manage, and moved to on-line market not to off-line, then invented E-RecS-QUAL which is a measuring tool about on-line service recovery. 2.3 Customer Satisfaction The definition of customer satisfaction can be divided into two points of view. First, they approached customer satisfaction from outcome of comsumer. Howard & Sheth(1969) defined satisfaction as 'a cognitive condition feeling being rewarded properly or improperly for their sacrifice.' and Westbrook & Reilly(1983) also defined customer satisfaction/dissatisfaction as 'a psychological reaction to the behavior pattern of shopping and purchasing, the display condition of retail store, outcome of purchased goods and service as well as whole market.' Second, they approached customer satisfaction from process. Engel & Blackwell(1982) defined satisfaction as 'an assessment of a consistency in chosen alternative proposal and their belief they had with them.' Tse & Wilton(1988) defined customer satisfaction as 'a customers' reaction to discordance between advance expectation and ex post facto outcome.' That is, this point of view that customer satisfaction is process is the important factor that comparing and assessing process what they expect and outcome of consumer. Unlike outcome-oriented approach, process-oriented approach has many advantages. As process-oriented approach deals with customers' whole expenditure experience, it checks up main process by measuring one by one each factor which is essential role at each step. And this approach enables us to check perceptual/psychological process formed customer satisfaction. Because of these advantages, now many studies are adopting this process-oriented approach(Yi, 1995). 2.4 Loyalty Intention Loyalty has been studied by dividing into behavioral approaches, attitudinal approaches and complex approaches(Dekimpe et al., 1997). In the early years of study, they defined loyalty focusing on behavioral concept, behavioral approaches regard customer loyalty as "a tendency to purchase periodically within a certain period of time at specific retail store." But the loyalty of behavioral approaches focuses on only outcome of customer behavior, so there are someone to point the limits that customers' decision-making situation or process were neglected(Enis & Paul, 1970; Raj, 1982; Lee, 2002). So the attitudinal approaches were suggested. The attitudinal approaches consider loyalty contains all the cognitive, emotional, voluntary factors(Oliver, 1997), define the customer loyalty as "friendly behaviors for specific retail stores." However these attitudinal approaches can explain that how the customer loyalty form and change, but cannot say positively whether it is moved to real purchasing in the future or not. This is a kind of shortcoming(Oh, 1995). 3. Research Design 3.1 Research Model Based on the objects of this study, the research model derived is
Background: The prevalence of tuberculosis in Korea decreased remarkably for the past 30 years, while the incidence of disease caused by mycobacteria other than tuberculosis is unknown. Korean Academy of Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases performed national survey to estimate the incidence of mycobacterial diseases other than tuberculosis in Korea. We analyzed the clinical data of confirmed cases for the practice of primary care physicians and pulmonary specialists. Methods: The period of study was from January 1981 to October 1994. We collected the data retrospectively by correspondence with physicians in the hospitals that referred the specimens to Korean Institute of Tuberculosis, The Korean National Tuberculosis Association for the detection of mycobacteria other than tuberculosis. In confirmed cases, we obtained the records for clinical, laboratory and radiological findings in detail using protocols. Results: 1) Mycobacterial diseases other than tuberculosis were confirmed that 1 case was in 1981, 2 cases in 1982, 4 cases in 1983, 2 cases in 1984, 5 cases in 1985, 1 case in 1986, 3 cases in 1987, 1 case in 1988, 6 cases in 1989, 9 cases in 1990, 14 cases in 1990, 10 cases in 1992, 4 cases in 1993, and 96 cases in 1994. Cases since 1990 were 133 cases(84.2%) of a total. 2) Fifty seven percent of patients were in the age group of over 60 years. The ratio of male to female patients was 2.6:1. 3) The distribution of hospitals in Korea showed that 61 cases(38.6%) were referred from Double Cross Clinic, 42 cases(26.6%) from health centers, 21 cases(13.3%) from tertiary referral hospitals, 15 cases(9.5%) from secondary referral hospitals, and 10 cases(6.3%) from primary care hospitals. The area distribution in Korea revealed that 98 cases(62%) were in Seoul, 17 cases(10.8%) in Gyeongsangbuk-do, 12 cases(7.6%) in Kyongki-do, 8 cases(5.1%) in Chungchongnam-do, each 5 cases(3.2%) in Gyeongsangnam-do and Chungchongbuk-do, 6 cases(3.8%) in other areas. 4) In the species of isolated mycobacteria other than tuberculosis, M. avium-intracellulare was found in 104 cases(65.2%), M. fortuitum in 20 cases(12.7%), M. chelonae in 15 cases(9.5%), M. gordonae in 7 cases(4.4%), M. terrae in 5 cases(3.2%), M. scrofulaceum in 3 cases(1.9%), M. kansasii and M. szulgai in each 2 cases(1.3%), and M. avium-intracellulare coexisting with M. terrae in 1 case(0.6%). 5) In pre-existing pulmonary diseases, pulmonary tuberculosis was 113 cases(71.5%), bronchiectasis 6 cases(3.8%), chronic bronchitis 10 cases(6.3%), and pulmonary fibrosis 6 cases(3.8%). The timing of diagnosis as having pulmonary tuberculosis was within 1 year in 7 cases(6.2%), 2~5 years ago in 32 cases(28.3%), 6~10 years ago in 29 cases(25.7%), 11~15 years ago in 16 cases(14.2%), 16~20 years ago in 15 cases (13.3%), and 20 years ago in 14 cases(12.4%). Duration of anti-tuberculous treatment was within 3 months in 6 cases(5.3%), 4~6 months in 17 cases(15%), 7~9 months in 16 cases(14.2%), 10~12 months in 11 cases(9.7%), 1~2 years in 21 cases(18.6%), and over 2 years in 8 cases(7.1%). The results of treatment were cure in 44 cases(27.9%) and failure in 25 cases(15.8%). 6) Associated extra-pulmonary diseases were chronic liver disease coexisting with chronic renal failure in 1 case(0.6%), diabetes mellitus in 9 cases(5.7%), cardiovascular diseases in 2 cases(1.3%), long-term therapy with steroid in 2 cases(1.3%) and chronic liver disease, chronic renal failure, colitis and pneumoconiosis in each 1 case(0.6%). 7) The clinical presentations of mycobacterial diseases other than tuberculosis were 86 cases (54.4%) of chronic pulmonary infections, 1 case(0.6%) of cervical or other site lymphadenitis, 3 cases(1.9%) of endobronchial tuberculosis, and 1 case(0.6%) of intestinal tuberculosis. 8) The symptoms of patients were cough(62%), sputum(61.4%), dyspnea(30.4%), hemoptysis or blood-tinged sputum(20.9%), weight loss(13.3%), fever(6.3%), and others(4.4%). 9) Smear negative with culture negative cases were 24 cases(15.2%) in first examination, 27 cases(17.1%) in second one, 22 cases(13.9%) in third one, and 17 cases(10.8%) in fourth one. Smear negative with culture positive cases were 59 cases(37.3%) in first examination, 36 cases (22.8%) in second one, 24 cases(15.2%) in third one, and 23 cases(14.6%) in fourth one. Smear positive with culture negative cases were 1 case(0.6%) in first examination, 4 cases(2.5%) in second one, 1 case (0.6%) in third one, and 2 cases(1.3%) in fourth one. Smear positive with culture positive cases were 48 cases(30.4%) in first examination, 34 cases(21.5%) in second one, 34 cases(21.5%) in third one, and 22 cases(13.9%) in fourth one. 10) The specimens isolated mycobacteria other than tuberculosis were sputum in 143 cases (90.5%), sputum and bronchial washing in 4 cases(2.5%), bronchial washing in 1 case(0.6%). 11) Drug resistance against all species of mycobacteria other than tuberculosis were that INH was 62%, EMB 55.7%, RMP 52.5%, PZA 34.8%, OFX 29.1%, SM 36.7%, KM 27.2%, TUM 24.1%, CS 23.4%, TH 34.2%, and PAS 44.9%. Drug resistance against M. avium-intracellulare were that INH was 62.5%, EMB 59.6%, RMP 51.9%, PZA 29.8%, OFX 33.7%, SM 30.8%, KM 20.2%, TUM 17.3%, CS 14.4%, TH 31.7%, and PAS 38.5%. Drug resistance against M. chelonae were that INH was 66.7%, EMB 66.7%, RMP 66.7%, PZA 40%, OFX 26.7%, SM 66.7%, KM 53.3%, TUM 53.3%, CS 60%, TH 53.3%, and PAS 66.7%. Drug resistance against M. fortuitum were that INH was 65%, EMB 55%, RMP 65%, PZA 50%, OFX 25%, SM 55%, KM 45%, TUM 55%, CS 65%, TH 45%, and PAS 60%. 12) The activities of disease on chest roentgenogram showed that no active disease was 7 cases(4.4%), mild 20 cases(12.7%), moderate 67 cases(42.4%), and severe 47 cases(29.8%). Cavities were found in 43 cases(27.2%) and pleurisy in 18 cases(11.4%). 13) Treatment of mycobacterial diseases other than tuberculosis was done in 129 cases(81.7%). In cases treated with the first line anti-tuberculous drugs, combination chemotherapy including INH and RMP was done in 86 cases(66.7%), INH or RMP in 30 cases(23.3%), and not including INH and RMP in 9 cases(7%). In 65 cases treated with the second line anti-tuberculous drugs, combination chemotherapy including below 2 drugs were in 2 cases(3.1%), 3 drugs in 15 cases(23.1%), 4 drugs in 20 cases(30.8%), 5 drugs in 9 cases(13.8%), and over 6 drugs in 19 cases (29.2%). The results of treatment were improvement in 36 cases(27.9%), no interval changes in 65 cases(50.4%), aggravation in 4 cases(3.1%), and death in 4 cases(3.1%). In improved 36 cases, 34 cases(94.4%) attained negative conversion of mycobacteria other than tuberculosis on cultures. The timing in attaining negative conversion on cultures was within 1 month in 2 cases(1.3%), within 3 months in 11 cases(7%), within 6 months in 14 eases(8.9%), within 1 year in 2 cases(1.3%) and over 1 year in 1 case(0.6%). Conclusion: Clinical, laboratory and radiological findings of mycobacterial diseases other than tuberculosis were summarized. This collected datas will assist in the more detection of mycobacterial diseases other than tuberculosis in Korea in near future.
The rule of the Warsaw Convention of 1929 are well known and still being all over the world. The Warsaw Convention is undoubtedly the most widely accepted private international air law treaty with some 140 countries. In the international legal system for air transportation, the Warsaw Convention has played a major role for more than half century, and has been revised many times in consideration of the rapid developments of air high technology, changes of social and economic circumstances, need for the protection of passengers. Some amendments became effective, but others are still not effective. As a result, the whole international legal system for air transportation is at past so complicated and tangled. However, the 'Warsaw system' consists of the Warsaw Convention of 1929 the Guadalajara Convention of 1961, a supplementary convention, and the following six protocols: (1) the Hague Protocol of 1955, (2) the Guatemala Protocol of 1971, (3) the Montreal Additional Protocols, No.1, (4) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.2, (5) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.3, and (6) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.4. of 1975. As a fundamental principle of the air carrier's liability in the international convention and protocols, for instance in the Warsaw Convention and the Hague Protocol, the principle of limited liability and a presumed fault system has been adopted. Subsequently, the Montreal Inter-carrier Agreement of 1966, the Guatemala City Protocol, the Montreal Additional Protocol No.3, and the Montreal Additional Protocol No. 4 of 1975 maintained the limited liability, but substituted the presumed liability system by an absolute liability, that is, strict liability system. The Warsaw System, which sets relatively low compensation limits for victims of aircraft accidents and regulates the limited liability for death and injury of air passengers, had become increasingly outdated. Japanese Airlines and Inter-carrier Agreement of International Air Transport Association in 1995 has been adopted the unlimited liability of air carrier in international flight. The IATA Inter-Carrier Agreement, in which airlines in international air transportation agree to waive the limit of damages, was long and hard in coming, but it was remarkable achievement given the political and economic realities of the world. IATA deserves enormous credit for bringing it about. The Warsaw System is controversial and questionable. In order to find rational solution to disputes between nations which adopted differing liability systems in international air transportation, we need to reform the liability of air carriers the 'Warsaw system' and fundamentally, to unify the liability system among the nations. The International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO) will therefore reinforce its efforts to further promote a legal environment that adequately reflects the public interest and the needs of the parties involved. The ICAO Study Group met in April, 1998, together with the Drafting Committee. The time between the "Special Group on the Modernization and Consolidation of the 'Warsaw system'(SGMW)" and the Diplomatic Conference must be actively utilized to arrange for profound studies of the outstanding issues and for wide international consultations with a view to narrowing the scope of differences and preparing for a global international consensus. From 11 to 28 May 1999 the ICAO Headquarters at Montreal hosted a Diplomatic Conference convened to consider, with a view to adoption, a draft Convention intended to modernize and to integrate replace the instruments of the Warsaw system. The Council of ICAO convened this Conference under the Procedure for the Adoption of International Conventions. Some 525 participants from 121 Contracting States of ICAO attended, one non-contracting State, 11 observer delegations from international organizations, a total of 544 registered participants took part in the historic three-week conference which began on 10 May. The Conference was a success since it adopted a new Convention for the Unification of Certain Rules for International Carriage by Air. The 1999 Montreal Convention, created and signed by representatives of 52 countries at an international conference convened by ICAO at Montreal on May 28, 1999, came into effect on November 4, 2003. Representatives of 30 countries have now formally ratified the Convention under their respective national procedures and ratification of the United States, which was the 30th country to ratify, took place on September 5, 2003. Under Article 53.6 of the Montreal Convention, it enters into force on the 60th day following the deposit of the 30th instrument of ratification or acceptation. The United States' ratification was deposited with ICAO on September 5, 2003. The ICAO have succeeded in modernizing and consolidating a 70-year old system of international instruments of private international law into one legal instrument that will provide, for years to come, an adequate level of compensation for those involved in international aircraft accidents. An international diplomatic conference on air law by ICAO of 1999 succeeded in adopting a new regime for air carrier liability, replacing the Warsaw Convention and five other related legal instruments with a single convention that provided for unlimited liability in relation to passengers. Victims of international air accidents and their families will be better protected and compensated under the new Montreal Convention, which modernizes and consolidates a seventy-five year old system of international instruments of private international law into one legal instrument. A major feature of the new legal instrument is the concept of unlimited liability. Whereas the Warsaw Convention set a limit of 125,000 Gold Francs (approximately US8,300)incaseofdeathorinjurytopassengers,theMontrealConventionintroducesatwo−tiersystem.Thefirsttierincludesstrictliabilityuptol00,000SpecialDrawingRights(SDR:approximatelyUS 135,000), irrespective of a carrier's fault. The second tier is based on presumption of fault of a carrier and has no limit of liability. The 1999 Montreal Convention also includes the following main elements; 1. In cases of aircraft accidents, air carriers are called upon to provide advance payments, without delay, to assist entitled persons in meeting immediate economic needs; the amount of this initial payment will be subject to national law and will be deductable from the final settlement; 2. Air carriers must submit proof of insurance, thereby ensuring the availability of financial resources in cases of automatic payments or litigation; 3. The legal action for damages resulting from the death or injury of a passenger may be filed in the country where, at the time of the accident, the passenger had his or her principal and permanent residence, subject to certain conditions. The new Montreal Convention of 1999 included the 5th jurisdiction - the place of residence of the claimant. The acceptance of the 5th jurisdiction is a diplomatic victory for the US and it can be realistically expected that claimants' lawyers will use every opportunity to file the claim in the US jurisdiction - it brings advantages in the liberal system of discovery, much wider scope of compensable non-economic damages than anywhere else in the world and the jury system prone to very generous awards. 4. The facilitation in the recovery of damages without the need for lengthy litigation, and simplification and modernization of documentation related to passengers. In developing this new Montreal Convention, we were able to reach a delicate balance between the needs and interests of all partners in international civil aviation, States, the travelling public, air carriers and the transport industry. Unlike the Warsaw Convention, the threshold of l00,000 SDR specified by the Montreal Convention, as well as remaining liability limits in relation to air passengers and delay, are subject to periodic review and may be revised once every five years. The primary aim of unification of private law as well as the new Montreal Convention is not only to remove or to minimize the conflict of laws but also to avoid conflict of jurisdictions. In order to find a rational solution to disputes between nations which have adopted differing liability systems in international air transport, we need fundamentally to reform their countries's domestic air law based on the new Montreal Convention. It is a desirable and necessary for us to ratify rapidly the new Montreal Convention by the contracting states of lCAO including the Republic of Korea. According to the Korean and Japanese ideas, airlines should not only pay compensation to passengers immediately after the accident, but also the so-called 'condolence' money to the next of kin. Condolence money is a gift to help a dead person's spirit in the hereafter : it is given on account of the grief and sorrow suffered by the next of kin, and it has risen considerably over the years. The total amount of the Korean and Japanese claims in the case of death is calculated on the basis of the loss of earned income, funeral expenses and material demage (baggage etc.), plus condolence money. The economic and social change will be occurred continuously after conclusion of the new Montreal Convention. In addition, the real value of life and human right will be enhanced substantially. The amount of compensation for damage caused by aircraft accident has increased in dollar amount as well as in volume. All air carrier's liability should extend to loss of expectation of leisure activities, as well as to damage to property, and mental and physical injuries. When victims are not satisfied with the amount of the compensation for damage caused by aircraft accident for which an airline corporation is liable under the current liability system. I also would like to propose my opinion that it is reasonable and necessary for us to interpret broadly the meaning of the bodily injury on Article 17 of the new Montreal Convention so as to be included the mental injury and condolence. Furthermore, Korea and Japan has not existed the Air Transport Act regulated the civil liability of air carrier such as Air Transport Act (Luftverkehrsgestz) in Germany. It is necessary for us to enact "the Korean Air Transport Contract Act (provisional title)" in order to regulate the civil liability of air carrier including the protection of the victims and injured persons caused by aircraft accident.
The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.
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