• Title/Summary/Keyword: 10-year return period

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Determinants of Vietnam Government Bond Yield Volatility: A GARCH Approach

  • TRINH, Quoc Trung;NGUYEN, Anh Phong;NGUYEN, Hoang Anh;NGO, Phu Thanh
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.7
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2020
  • This empirical research aims to identify the relationship between fiscal and financial macroeconomic fundamentals and the volatility of government bonds' borrowing cost in an emerging country - Vietnam. The study covers the period from July 2006 to December 2019 and it is based on a sample of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year government bonds, which represent short-term, medium-term and long-term sovereign bonds in Vietnam, respectively. The Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and its derivatives such as EGARCH and TGARCH are applied on monthly dataset to examine and suggest a significant effect of fiscal and financial determinants of bond yield volatility. The findings of this study indicate that the variation of Vietnam government bond yields is in compliance with the theories of term structure of interest rate. The results also show that a proportion of the variation in the yields on Vietnam government bonds is attributed to the interest rate itself in the previous period, base rate, foreign interest rate, return of the stock market, fiscal deficit, public debt, and current account balance. Our results could be helpful in the macroeconomic policy formulation for policy-makers and in the investment practice for investors regarding the prediction of bond yield volatility.

Improvement of Operating Efficiency on Advanced Wastewater Plant Using Statistical Approach (고도처리 효율 향상을 위한 통계적 접근)

  • Moon, Kyung-Sook;Min, Kyung-Sub;Kim, Seung-Min;Lee, Chan-Hyung
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.405-412
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    • 2008
  • Statistical analysis technique was applied to operating parameters and removal efficiency data sets obtained from advanced wastewater treatment plant during 1 year. Through factor analysis three factors derived varimax rotation were selected each plant. Three components explained 96%, 87% of the total variance of the process, respectively. The components on $A_2O$ Plant were identified in the following order : 1) Shortening the SRT during high-flow period, 2) Keeping biomass high on winter 3) factor was related to DO. On DNR plant, we defined them as follows: factor 1, Prolonged the SRT during high-flow period; factor 2 was related to sludge return; factor 3, Influent BOD during low-DO period. This technique was believed to assist operators in identifying priorities to improve operation efficiency.

Financial Ratio, Macro Economy, and Investment Risk on Sharia Stock Return

  • WIDAGDO, Bambang;JIHADI, M.;BACHITAR, Yanuar;SAFITRI, Oky Ervina;SINGH, Sanju Kumar
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.919-926
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze and test the effect of financial ratios and macroeconomics on Islamic stock returns listed in Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) other than to assess whether investment risk can be an intervening variable in this study. The type of research is explanatory in nature with a quantitative descriptive approach. The data used is based on secondary sources with a sample group of 29 companies listed on JII for a 5-year period ending 31 December 2018. The data obtained were analyzed by using SEM (Structural Equation Model) with AMOS (Analysis Moment of Structural) 21 program. The results of the study show that only financial ratios affect sharia stock returns and investment risk, while the mediation test found that investment risk does not act as a mediating variable between financial ratios and macroeconomics and Islamic stock return. These findings indicate that the role of the company's financial health is very important. Besides affecting the rate of return obtained, the company's financial health can also reflect the level of risk that investors will accept in the future. By improving financial performance properly, a company will have a positive impact on various interested parties and minimize the level of investor losses.

HAZARD ANALYSIS OF TYPHOON-RELATED EXTERNAL EVENTS USING EXTREME VALUE THEORY

  • KIM, YOCHAN;JANG, SEUNG-CHEOL;LIM, TAE-JIN
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 2015
  • Background: After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. Methods: To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. Results: The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. Conclusion: A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

Evaluating the Investment in the Malaysian Construction Sector in the Long-run Using the Modified Internal Rate of Return: A Markov Chain Approach

  • SARSOUR, Wajeeh Mustafa;SABRI, Shamsul Rijal Muhammad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.8
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    • pp.281-287
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    • 2020
  • In capital budgeting practices, investment project evaluations based on the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) represent the traditional evaluation techniques. Compared with the traditional methods, the modified internal rate of return (MIRR) gives the opportunity to evaluate an investment in certain projet, while taking the changes in cash flows over time and issuing shares such as dividing shares, bonuses, and dividend for each end of the investment year into account. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate an investment in the Malaysian construction sector utilizing financial data for 39 public listed companies operating in the Malaysian construction sector over the period from Jan 1, 2007, to December 30, 2018, based on the MIRR method. Stochastic was studied in this study to estimate the estimated probability by applying the Markov chain model to the MIRR method where the transition matrix has two possible movements of either Good (G) or Bad (B). it is found that the long-run probability of getting a good investment is higher than the probability of getting a bad investment in the long-run, where were the probabilities of good and bad are 0.5119, 0.4881, respectively. Hence, investment in the Malaysian construction sector is recommended.

Meteorological basis for wind loads calculation in Croatia

  • Bajic, Alica;Peros, Bernardin
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.389-406
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    • 2005
  • The results of reference wind speed calculation in Croatia as a base for the revision of the Croatian standards for wind loads upon structures are presented. Wind speed averaged over 10 minutes, at 10 m height, in a flat, open terrain, with a 50-year mean return period is given for 27 meteorological stations in Croatia. It is shown that the greatest part of Croatia is covered with expected reference wind speeds up to 25 m/s. Exceptions are stations with specific anemometer location open to the bura wind which is accelerated due to the channelling effects of local orography and the nearby mountain passes where the expected reference wind speed ranges between 38 m/s and 55 m/s. The methodology for unifying all available information from wind measurements regardless of the averaging period is discussed by analysing wind speed variability at the meteorological station in Hvar.

Survey on sewerage operation/management planning for flooding (I) (하수관거시설의 침수대응 운영·관리 실태 연구 (I))

  • Ryu, Jaena;Hwang, Sung-Hwan;Oh, Jeill;Hyun, In Hwan;Kim, Young-Ran;Kim, Chan-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.265-270
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    • 2009
  • A nationwide questionnaire survey was conducted to investigate the actual conditions of local authorities in operating and maintaining sewerage systems especially for urban flooding. The questionnaire includes the incidences of flooding since 1980, the existence of any guidance for preventing flood damage and the design frequency currently used for sewers in each local authority. Among 160 local authorities responded to the survey, 95(59.3%) has experienced flooding more than once since 1980 while only 36(37.9%) of the 95 has prepared operation/maintenance guidelines for flooding. Most of the respondents have applied the 10 year design frequency for sewer design and 57(35.6%) of them agreed to adjust the 10 year design frequency regulation.

Study on Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Summertime Precipitation over Korean Peninsula (여름철 한반도 강수의 시·공간적 특성 연구)

  • In, So-Ra;Han, Sang-Ok;Im, Eun-Soon;Kim, Ki-Hoon;Shim, JaeKwan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.159-171
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    • 2014
  • This study investigated the temporal and spatial characteristics of summertime (June-August) precipitation over Korean peninsula, using Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)is Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) data for the period of 1973-2010 and Automatic Weather System (AWS) data for the period of 1998-2010.The authors looked through climatological features of the summertime precipitation, then examined the degree of locality of the precipitation, and probable precipitation amount and its return period of 100 years (i.e., an extreme precipitation event). The amount of monthly total precipitation showed increasing trends for all the summer months during the investigated 38-year period. In particular, the increasing trends were more significant for the months of July and August. The increasing trend of July was seen to be more attributable to the increase of precipitation intensity than that of frequency, while the increasing trend of August was seen to be played more importantly by the increase of the precipitation frequency. The e-folding distance, which is calculated using the correlation of the precipitation at the reference station with those at all other stations, revealed that it is August that has the highest locality of hourly precipitation, indicating higher potential of localized heavy rainfall in August compared to other summer months. More localized precipitation was observed over the western parts of the Korean peninsula where terrain is relatively smooth. Using the 38-years long series of maximum daily and hourly precipitation as input for FARD2006 (Frequency Analysis of Rainfall Data Program 2006), it was revealed that precipitation events with either 360 mm $day^{-1}$ or 80 mm $h^{-1}$ can occur with the return period of 100 years over the Korean Peninsula.

Feasibility Study of Wastewater Reuse for the Vegetable Farming in Jejudo (제주도 밭작물의 농업용수 재이용 타당성 평가)

  • Seong, Choung-Hyun;Kang, Moon-Seong;Jang, Tae-Il;Park, Seung-Woo;Lee, Kwang-Ya;Kim, Hae-Do
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.27-32
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this study is to assess the feasibility of wastewater reuse for the vegetable farming. The study region, about 250 ha in size, is located on the west coast of Jejudo, Korea. Major agricultural products of the study area are the cabbage, broccoli, garlic and onion. To confirm the feasibility of wastewater reuse, the drought duration and the water requirement analysis were conducted respectively. The average annual precipitation of the study region (1,121 mm) was smaller than that of Jeju island (1,975 mm). The drought duration for a ten-year return period in October through November was more than 20 days. The water requirement for irrigation was calculated by the FAQ Penman-Monteith method which took into account the cultivated crops, planting system, and meteorological conditions of the study region. The water requirement for a ten-year return period was estimated 4.7 mm/day and the water demand for irrigation was $4,584\;m^3/day$. As a result, the irrigation water for the crops was insufficient during their breeding season, especially in October through November. Thus, the result indicated that the study region required the alternative water supply such as wastewater reuse during the non-rainy season. As drought continues to place considerable stress on the availability of fresh water supplies in the study region, irrigation with reclaimed wastewater will play an important role in helping to meet future water demands.

Analyzing the drought event in 2015 through statistical drought frequency analysis (통계학적 가뭄빈도분석 기법을 통한 2015년 가뭄사상에 대한 분석)

  • Lee, Taesam;Son, Chanyoung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.177-186
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    • 2016
  • Drought is a water-related natural disaster which can be simply described as spatially and temporally sequential absence of water. However, its characteristics are very difficult to define. For this reason, the preparation and mitigation from drought events have not been successful. In the current study, we illustrated a design drought estimation approach of water resources infrastructures as well as the existing theoretical one to prepare and mitigate drought disasters. Theoretical and simulation methods were tested including three time series models such as autoregressive (AR), Gamma AR, Copula AR models. The results indicated that for South Korea region, the simulation-based method to estimate drought frequency presented better performance and all the three time series models show similar performance to each other. The current drought event occurring in South Korea was investigated with dividing South Korea into four basins as Han River, Nakdong River, Geum River, and Nakdong River basins. The results showed that two middle and north basins presented significant drought events with 3 year drought duration and around 40 year return period while the other two southern regions illustrated relatively weaker drought events.