• Title/Summary/Keyword: 환율전략

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An Investigation to Outlook the Effect of FTA on Motor Car Export to Latin America and the Appropriate Action Plan - By Looking at Statistics and Factors that Influenced Export of Motor Cars to Chile - (FTA 체결에 의한 중남미 자동차 수출 전망과 대응 방안 연구 -대(對) 칠레 자동차 수출 성과 및 영향요인 변화 분석을 중심으로-)

  • Choi, Ki-Young
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.139-158
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    • 2012
  • FTA is one of the most important trade policies for the motor car industry. Due to the large amount of employment and production the motor car industry provides in a country, in a lot of cases, the protective trade policies that countries employ are targeted for the motor car industry. In this point of view, it can be said that the Latin American FTA strategy such as the 'Korea-Columbia FTA', 'Korea-Peru FTA' and 'Korea-Chile FTA' has a large influence in the development of Korea's car industry. This paper analyses changes in factors influencing car export before and after the signing of the Korea-Chile FTA to forecast the export of motor cars to Latin America and aims to propose an action plan. Research shows that out of the variables 'exchange rate', 'GDP', and 'oil price, 'GDP' showed a strong corelation with export before and after the FTA. Regression analysis also showed that only 'GDP' has an impact on export rates and that its impact is most highest after the exhibition of FTA's effects. This suggests that FTA has an important effect in motor car export to Latin America but export is also strongly interlocked with the local country's economic condition which highlights the requirement for an action plan such as the establishment of local production systems.

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Study on the Forecasting and Effecting Factor of BDI by VECM (VECM에 의한 BDI 예측과 영향요인에 관한 실증연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Yhun;Ahn, Ki-Myung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.546-554
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    • 2018
  • The Bulk market, unlike the line market, is characterized by stiff competition where certain ship or freight owners have no influence on freight rates. However, freights are subject to macroeconomic variables and economic external shock which should be considered in determining management or chartering decisions. According to the results analyzed by use of ARIMA Inventiom model, the impact of the financial crisis was found to have a very strong bearing on the BDI index. First, according to the results of the VEC model, the libor rate affects the BDI index negatively (-) while exchange rate affects the BDI index by positively (+). Secondly, according to the results of the VEC model's J ohanson test, the order ship volume affects the BDI index by negatively (-) while China's economic growth rate affects the BDI index by positively (+). This shows that the shipping company has moved away from the simple carrier and responded appropriately to changes in macroeconomic variables (economic fluctuations, interest rates and exchange rates). It is believed that the shipping companies should be more aggressive in its "trading" management strategy in order to prevent any unfortunate situation such as the Hanjin Shipping incident.

Analysis of The Relationships between Religions in Southeast Asia and Tourism Demand in Korea (동남아시아 지역 종교와 방한 관광수요의 영향 관계분석)

  • Kim, Do-Hoon
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.123-130
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    • 2023
  • As part of the research on cultural factors that determine international tourism demand, this study was conducted based on regional interest and the need for understanding religion. The purpose of this study is to empirically test how religious factors affect tourism demand in Korea to find out that religious factors are important considerations in establishing tourism policies and strategies. To achieve the purpose of this study, the research target areas were selected as Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines, which have relatively many tourists visiting Korea among Southeast Asian countries and are well known for their religious characteristics. GDP and nominal exchange rate, which are economic factors, were selected as explanatory variables. And religious diversity was selected as a characteristic factor variable of the tourism demand model based on the characteristic theory. An empirical analysis was conducted through a gravity model. As a result of the estimation, it was found that GDP has a positive effect on tourism demand in Korea. Nominal exchange rate variables and religious diversity variables were found to have a negative effect on tourism demand in Korea. We have confirmed that religion is an important factor in choosing tourist destinations for Filipino, Thai, and Malaysian tourists visiting Korea, and they choose religiously similar destinations.

The Korean Development Strategy: Trajectories of the Korean Economic Development, 1961~2010 (한국의 발전 전략: 한국 경제발전 궤적(1961~2010))

  • Jung, Sung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.453-466
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    • 2011
  • The main aim of this paper is to explore the Korean development strategy in the context of trajectories of the economic development from 1961 to 2010. The fast and high growth in the period of 1961 and 2010 resulted from the 'export-oriented industrialization' through a combination of 'mass production-mass exports' and '(relatively) high productivity-low wages' up to the late 1980s, a mixture of 'mass production-mass exports' and '(relatively) high productivity-high wages' to the late 1990s, and a combination of the reformation of public and private sectors for overcoming the Korean financial crisis and the gradual improvement of the marketization and social safety net since 2000. With respect to this model of development, the global and national modes of regulation were established. Along with the formation of endogenous forces (as the national mode of regulation), that of exogenous forces (as the global mode of regulation) are the important rules of the game at the global level, which lead and stabilize the process of accumulation by the export-led industrialization in Korea. In this respect, the establishment of global modes of regulation is led by exogenous forces such as trade regulations, exchange rates, global-Korean industrial relations, and global regulations of loans to developing countries. On the other hand, the national modes of regulation are formed by endogenous forces such as the triangular relationship of the state, capital and labor.

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A Study on the Effect of the Facilitating Factors of B2C eCommerce on the Online Shopping and the Overseas Direct Purchase (우리나라 B2C 전자상거래 촉진요인이 온라인쇼핑과 해외직접구매에 미치는 영향 : 택배물류기업의 과제를 중심으로)

  • Jung, Seok-Mo;Park, Seung-Lak
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.27-51
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine correlations between the facilitating factors of the B2C e-commerce and the online shopping and the overseas direct purchase for the purpose of suggesting the successful logistics operational strategies for the domestic parcel delivery service companies. This paper conducts wide literature reviews and empirical analyses on relationships between the facilitating factors of B2C e-commerce and the online shopping and the overseas direct purchase in B2C e-commerce. We built two regression equations that dependable variables are the turnover of online shopping and the amount of imports by international postal logistics services respectively. The former equation's estimation results show that all the independable variables are affecting the dependable variable in the long-term jointly. And, the results show that the change of the turnover of online shopping is affected not only by the change of the usage count of a credit card and the real GDP, but also by the change of the error-correction variable. The latter equation's estimation results show that all the independable variables are affecting the dependable variable in the long-term jointly. Futhermore, the results show that the change of the amount of imports by international postal logistics services is affected not only by the change of the usage count of a credit card, the exchange rate and the internet protocol IPv4, but also by the change of the error-correction variable. Based on these research results, a high advanced strategic approach for optimum parcel delivery services is highly required.

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Competency Assessment of Korean Construction Firms on International Plant Projects (국내 기업의 경쟁력 및 업무역량 분석 - 해외 플랜트 사업을 중심으로 -)

  • Jang, Hyoun-Seung;Lee, Bok-Nam;Choi, Seok-In;Koo, Bon-Sang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.173-181
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    • 2008
  • Last decade, Korea's export scale has resulted in remarkably increasing tendency, and the Korean construction firms(KCFs)' activities on the global markets also have been revitalized. Therefore, this paper analyze a correlation between changes in the oversee market conditions and firms' competitiveness focused on plant business. The aim of this paper is to analyze the internal competency change of the KCFs on the global markets in the past 5 years and to find gap of internal competencies between KCFs and outstanding foreign firms. From a survey analysis this paper found that the external impacts on the global markets(changes of exchange rates, raw materials prices, supply-demand conditions, etc.) have highly influenced the sales amount of the KCFs. But the impacts to change the operating profit have been analyzed as not important. So it is necessary to reinforce the KCF's internal competencies rater than expecting an improvement of the external conditions. Also, the KCFs should strengthen the design engineering as a core competency.

A System Dynamics Simulation on KIKO Derivatives and its Implications from International Trade (국제통상에서 KIKO 파생금융상품과 그 영향에 대한 시스템 다이내믹스 시뮬레이션)

  • Eom, Jae-Gun;Chung, Chang-Kwon
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.5-28
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    • 2014
  • Derivatives can be easily bought by those companies that need to hedge foreign currency debt or foreign currency assets through the financial market, considering their exchange rate exposure from international trade. The derivatives market has been growing rapidly due to the needs for investment and hedging. To manage foreign exchange risk, companies hedge risks through financial derivatives. According to our study, hedging is an effective way to mitigate the impact of exposure to exchange risk, as long as companies are only hedging underlying assets. Yet, covetous attitude toward the profit from derivatives and unexpected changes in exchange rate can cause problems for companies. This study analyzed the structural risks of derivatives with analysis of system dynamics. In particular, many companies suffered substantial loss due to KIKO during the economic crisis. We explained the problem therein through dynamic analysis. In addition, we revealed the structural problem that could cause a sudden spike in losses through simulations.

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A study on stock price prediction system based on text mining method using LSTM and stock market news (LSTM과 증시 뉴스를 활용한 텍스트 마이닝 기법 기반 주가 예측시스템 연구)

  • Hong, Sunghyuck
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.7
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    • pp.223-228
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    • 2020
  • The stock price reflects people's psychology, and factors affecting the entire stock market include economic growth rate, economic rate, interest rate, trade balance, exchange rate, and currency. The domestic stock market is heavily influenced by the stock index of the United States and neighboring countries on the previous day, and the representative stock indexes are the Dow index, NASDAQ, and S & P500. Recently, research on stock price analysis using stock news has been actively conducted, and research is underway to predict the future based on past time series data through artificial intelligence-based analysis. However, even if the stock market is hit for a short period of time by the forecasting system, the market will no longer move according to the short-term strategy, and it will have to change anew. Therefore, this model monitored Samsung Electronics' stock data and news information through text mining, and presented a predictable model by showing the analyzed results.

An analysis of Financial Factors' Characteristic for Global Shipping Companies using Panel Regression Analysis (패널회귀분석을 이용한 글로벌 선사의 재무요인 특성분석에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Jae-Gyun;Yeo, Gi-Tae
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2019
  • This study performed Panel Regression Analysis (PRA) with the debt ratio as a dependent variable and the ROE (return on equity), sales volume, current ratio, total capital, and Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) as an independent variable. According to the GLS analysis, the current ratio to liabilities ratio was negative, and for sales, the ratio of liabilities was positive. Capital totals also had a negative impact on the debt ratio. However, ROE, unlike the hypothesis, had negative effects on the liability ratio, and the SCFI index was not significant. As implications of this research, the company confirmed that its sales increased as the debt ratio of global shipping companies rose, achieving economies of scale. However, it was confirmed that the actual size of the economy through the injection of other capital would help increase sales but not affect net profit. Shipping companies should expand their business power and secure large container vessels to secure credibility of shippers. In the future research, an analysis considering exchange rate, global economic growth rate, and manufacturing production index is needed.

The Clinical Effects of Surgical Treatment for Hemoptysis due to Inflammatory Lung Disease (염증성 폐질환에 의한 객혈에 대한 수술적 치료 효과)

  • Yun, Ju-Sik;Na, Kook-Joo;CheKar, Jay-Key;Jeong, In-Seok;Song, Sang-Yun;Oh, Sang-Gi
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.144-149
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    • 2010
  • Background: Many studies have demonstrated the various therapeutic options for treating hemoptysis caused by inflammatory lung disease. However, there is debate over the surgical management of the ongoing hemoptysis. Therefore, we evaluated the clinical results of pulmonary resection that was done due to hemoptysis in patients with concomitant inflammatory lung disease. Material and Method: We performed a retrospective analysis of 75 patients who received pulmonary resection for hemoptysis and concomitant inflammatory lung disease between 2001 and 2007. The mean age was $52.1{\pm}12.5$ years old, and the male; female ratio was 52:23. Result: The underlying disease was aspergilloma in 30 patients (40%), pulmonary tuberculosis in 20 patients, bronchiectasis in 18 patients and other causes in 7 patients. The surgical treatment included lobectomy in 55 patients, bilobectony in 2 patients, pneumonectomy in 17 patients and wedge resection in 1 patient. There were 3 early deaths, and the causes of death were pneumonia in 1 patient and BPF in 2 patients. The early mortality was statistically higher for such risk factors as a preoperative Hgb level <10 g/dL, COPD and an emergency operation. Conclusion: In conclusion, pulmonary resection for treating hemoptysis showed the acceptable range of mortality and it was an effective method for the management of hemoptysis in patients with inflammatory lung disease. However, relatively high rates of mortality and morbidity were noted for an emergency operation, and so meticulous care is needed in this situation.