• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.17-30
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• 2020

In the shipping industry, it is essential to engage in the preemptive prediction of freight rate volatility through market monitoring. Considering that freight rates have already started to fall, the loss of shipping companies will soon be uncontrollable. Therefore, in this study, factors affecting the freight rates of bulk carriers, which have relatively large freight rate volatility as compared to container freight rates, were quantified and analyzed. In doing so, we intended to contribute to future shipping market monitoring. We performed an analysis using a vector error correction model and estimated the influence of six independent variables on the charter rates of bulk carriers by Handy Size, Supramax, Panamax, and Cape Size. The six independent variables included the bulk carrier fleet volume, iron ore traffic volume, ribo interest rate, bunker oil price, and Euro-Dollar exchange rate. The dependent variables were handy size (32,000 DWT) spot charter rates, Supramax 6 T/C average charter rates, Pana Max (75,000 DWT) spot charter, and Cape Size (170,000 DWT) spot charter. The study examined charter rates by size of bulk carriers, which was different from studies on existing specific types of ships or fares in oil tankers and chemical carriers other than bulk carriers. Findings revealed that influencing factors differed for each ship size. The Libo interest rate had a significant effect on all four ship types, and the iron ore traffic volume had a significant effect on three ship types. The Ribo rate showed a negative (-) relationship with Handy Size, Supramax, Panamax, and Cape Size. Iron ore traffic influenced three types of linearity, except for Panamax. The size of shipping companies differed depending on their characteristics. These findings are expected to contribute to the establishment of a management strategy for shipping companies by analyzing the factors influencing changes in the freight rates of charterers, which have a profound effect on the management performance of shipping companies.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.13-32
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• 2018

Btcoin has made a big progress through anonymity, decentralized authority, sharing economy, multi-ledger book-keeping, block-technology and the convenient financial vehicle. Bitcoin has the characteristics of mining and supply by decentralized suppliers, limited supply quantity and the partial money-like function as well as gold. The paper studies the hedge and safe-haven of Bitcoin and gold on daily frequency data over the period of July 20, 2010-Dec. 27, 2017 employing Asymmetric Vector GARCH. It finds that gold has the hedge and safe-haven against inflation and capital markets while Bitcoin has the weak hedge and the weak safe-haven. It shows insignificant effects of inflations of US and Korea on the volatilities of Bitcoin and gold. It also suggests the necessity of clearing of vagueness behind the anonymity for fair and transparent trade through the law application in the absence or fault in law (Lucken im Recht). following the spirit of the living constitution (lebendige gutes Recht oder Vorschrift). The relevant institutions are hoped to be given some of obligations such as registration, minimum required capital. report, disclosure, explanation, compliance and governance with autonomous corresponding rights. The study also suggests the reestablishment of the relevant financial law and taxation law. The hedge would not be successfully accomplished without the vigilant cautions of investors.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.222-233
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• 2010

This paper aims at predicting the BDI from Jan. to Dec. 2010 using such econometric techniues of the univariate time series as stochastic ARIMA-type models and Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique. The multivariate cause-effect econometric model is not employed for not assuring a higher degree of forecasting accuracy than the univariate variable model. Such a cause-effect econometric model also fails in adjusting itself for the post-sample. This article introduces the two ARIMA models and five Intervention-ARIMA models. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through December 2009. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared between the ARIMA-type models and the random walk model. Forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean error (ME). The RMSE and MAE indicate that the ARIMA-type models outperform the random walk model And the mean errors for all models are small in magnitude relative to the MAE's, indicating that all models don't have a tendency of overpredicting or underpredicting systematically in forecasting. The pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are expected to be 2,820 at the end of 2010 compared with the optimistic forecasts of 4,230.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.173-181
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• 2008

Last decade, Korea's export scale has resulted in remarkably increasing tendency, and the Korean construction firms(KCFs)' activities on the global markets also have been revitalized. Therefore, this paper analyze a correlation between changes in the oversee market conditions and firms' competitiveness focused on plant business. The aim of this paper is to analyze the internal competency change of the KCFs on the global markets in the past 5 years and to find gap of internal competencies between KCFs and outstanding foreign firms. From a survey analysis this paper found that the external impacts on the global markets(changes of exchange rates, raw materials prices, supply-demand conditions, etc.) have highly influenced the sales amount of the KCFs. But the impacts to change the operating profit have been analyzed as not important. So it is necessary to reinforce the KCF's internal competencies rater than expecting an improvement of the external conditions. Also, the KCFs should strengthen the design engineering as a core competency.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.103-136
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• 2014

The covered interest rate parity condition (CIRP) has been widely used in open macroeconomic analysis, risk management, exchange rate forecasts, and so forth. Due to the recent global financial crises, there have been remarkable changes in the financial markets of the emerging markets. These changes possibly influenced the dynamics of the covered interest rate parity condition. In this paper, we investigate whether the CIRP dynamics has changed, and what is the nature of the regime changes. To do this, we propose and estimate multiple-state Markov regime switching models using a Bayesian MCMC method. Our estimation results indicate that the default risk or the deviation from the CIRP has been decreased after the crisis. It seems to be associated with the more active interaction between the short-term bond market and the short-term foreign exchange market than before. The tightened relation of these two financial markets is caused by the arbitrage transaction of foreign investors.

• Korean Business Review
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.261-274
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• 2006

Airline business operates in the 21st century within fast changing market environment and fierce competition. Management of airline companies has faced the need for vast adaptation to new trends in the growth of world economy that are cardinal changes in marketing environment due to quick development of Internet and IT, transport price competition and, as a consequence, low profit margin, diversified customer wants and needs, lack of investment needed for new aircraft equipped with the latest high tech innovations, unpredictable oil price changes, and exchange rate fluctuations. This study is aimed to evaluate the quality performance of cabin service, to analyse, further, the issues that appeared to be the most significant among customers' answers to questionnaire, to explore the relationships between these issues and customer satisfaction, to highlight the essential questions to address, and to provide some practical suggestions. The five dimensions (such as tangible, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, and empathy) were adopted to examine the relationship between the service quality and customer satisfaction of Mongolian and non-Mongolian passengers travelling by the MIAT. According to findings of analysis made with use of the SERVPERF model, it can be concluded that Mongolian travellers' satisfaction was effected by 'Tangible' and 'Responsiveness' dimensions of service quality, whereas the 'Empathy' dimension has more impact on the satisfaction of non-Mongolian.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.63-71
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• 2010

Business entrepreneurs reflect their views of domestic and foreign economic activities on their operation for the growth of their business. The decision, forecasting, and planning based on their economic sentiment affect business operation such as production, investment, and hiring and consequently affect condition of national economy. Business survey index(BSI) is compiled to get the information of business entrepreneurs' economic sentiment for the analysis of business condition. BSI has been used as an important variable in the short-term forecasting models for business cycle analysis, especially during the the period of extreme business fluctuations. Recent financial crisis has arised extreme business fluctuations similar to those caused by currency crisis at the end of 1997, and brought back the importance of BSI as a variable for the economic forecasting. In this paper, the meaning of BSI as an economic sentiment index is reviewed and a GUIDE regression tree is constructed to find out the factors which affect on BSI. The result shows that the variables related to the stability of financial market such as kospi index(Korea composite stock price index) and exchange rate as well as manufacturing operation ratio and consumer goods sales are main factors which affect business entrepreneurs' economic sentiment.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technical Association of the Pulp and Paper Industry Conference
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• 2001.11a
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• pp.14-14
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• 2001

현재 제지용 펄프 및 펼프 원료의 국내 자급상태는 매우 낮은 수준이다. 따라서 원료 가격변동과 환율에 따라 수익성은 물론, 원료 수급에도 큰 영향을 받게 된다. 최근 버 진펄프의 가격상승은 재생펄프 사용량과 고지수입량을 더욱 늘리고 있으며, 이들의 사 용에 따른 품질저하 개선노력도 꾸준히 행해지고 있다. 그러나 원가절감과 품질유지라 는 두 마리 토끼를 한꺼번에 잡는 것은 그리 쉬운 일이 아니며 그 효과 또한 점점 미 미해 지고 있는 실정이다. 외국의 경우 이러한 문제점들을 펄프소재면에서 접근하여 해 결하고자 하는 시도가 있었다. 중국은 벗짚펄프를 제지용으로 적용하여 오랜 시행착오 끝에 성공을 거두고 있으며, 남미에서도 수수 등을 이용한 제지용 펼프 개발에 노력과 투자를 아끼지 않고 있다. 이는 제한된 원료의 사용만으로 직면하고 있는 여러 문제점 들을 해결하기가 힘들다는 언식에서 출발한 것이며, 새로운 원료개발 자체가 그 해결방 안으로서 충분한 가치가 있음을 보여준다고 하겠다. 이와 같은 맥락에 따라 국내에서 적용이 가능한 소재를 조사하였으며 우선적으로 신서란을 선택하게 되었다. 신서란은 뉴질랜드가 원산지로 알려져 있으며 오래전부터 제주도에 자생하고 있는 다년생 초본류이다. 수많은 경질섬유(hard fiber)중에서도 경제적으로 재배되는 유일한 작물로 선박용 로프, 그물, 범포 등의 원료로 사용되었으나 현재는 화학섬유로 대체되 어 그 사용이 전무한 실정이다. 선서란은 고강도와 우수한 유연성, 탄력성 및 양호한 광학적 성질을 가지고 있으며 무엇보다 척박한 땅에서도 생장이 왕성하여 재배가 쉽다 는 것이 가장 큰 장점이다. 본 연구는 펄프용 섬유로서 양호한 기본특성을 가진 신서란 을 이용한 펄프를 기존 제지공정에 일정량 투입함으로써 얻고자 하는 종이의 일반물성 개선 및 특수기능 향상에 도움이 되는 제지용 펄프로서의 가능성을 알아보고자 하였다.이어서 몇십%의 현을 억제하지는 못한다는 결론을 도출할 수 있었다. 연구의 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 한국과 미국 패션제품의 지난 십년간의 가격 과 품질의 상관관계는 매우 약한 정(+)의 상관을 가지고 있었다. 한국패션제품의 전체 서열상관계수의 평균은 0.091이었고, 미국의 상관계수 평균은 0.192였 다. 상관계수의 수치만으로 볼 때 한국보다는 미국 패션제품의 가격과 품질간의 상관관계가 조금 높게 나타났으나, 양국간 통계적인 차이는 없었다. 또한, 한국 패션제품의 경우에는 제품군의 가격대별 상관관계를 살펴보았는데, 그 결과 1만원 미만의 저가 제품군과 330만원이상의 고가의 제품군의 경우 부(-)의 상관계수를 나타냈다. 둘째. 1990년대 한국과 미국 패션시장의 가격과 품질간의 상관계수의 범위는 제품군별. 산업범주별 로 상이한 분포를 보이고 있었다. 패션제품군별로 보 면, 한국의 경우는 가장 높은 '여행용가방(r = 0.707)' 에서 가장 낮은 '자외선 차단화장품(r = -0.58)'까지, 그리고 미국 패션제품군의 상관계수의 범위는 '팬티 스타킹'의 0.820에서 '남성용 런닝슈즈'의 -0.472까지의 분포를 나타냈다. 마지막으로, 제품의 가격과 품질에 대한 정보를 소비자가 알 경우 얻을 수 있는 소비자의 구매이득 을 추산한 결과 패션제품시장에서 완전한 품질정보를 가지고 있다고 가정한 '현명한 사람'은, 최고가격의 제품만을 구입한다고 가정한 '부유한 사람들'의 구입방식에 비해 최고 좋은 품질의 상품을 총 지불액의 비율로 보아, 한국의 소비자는 약 50% 정도를, 미국의 소비자는 약 91%나 되는 액수를 절약하여 구매할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이상의 본 연구의 결과를 종합하여 볼 때 한국과 미국 모두 제품군별, 그리고 산업범주별로 상관관계가 차이를 보이고 있어, 양국의 소비자들이 패션제품 의 품질을 평가함에 있어 오로지 가격에 대한

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.33-45
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• 2021

Due to recent changes in government policy, officetels have received attention as alternative assets, along with the uplift of office and apartment prices in Seoul. However, the current officetel price indexes use small-size samples and, thus, there is a critique on their accuracy. They rely on valuation prices which lag the market trend and do not properly reflect the volatile nature of the property market, resulting in 'smoothing'. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to create the officetel price index using transaction data. The data, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from 2005 to 2020, includes sales prices and rental prices - Jeonsei and monthly rent (and their combinations). This study employed a repeat sales model for sales, jeonsei, and monthly rent indexes. It also contributes to improving conversion rates (between deposit and monthly rent) as a supplementary indicator. The main findings are as follows. First, the officetel price index and jeonsei index reached 132.5P and 163.9P, respectively, in Q4 2020 (1Q 2011=100.0P). However, the rent index was approximately below 100.0. Sales prices and jeonsei continued to rise due to high demand while monthly rent was largely unchanged due to vacancy risk. Second, the increase in the officetel sales price was lower than other housing types such as apartments and villas. Third, the employed approach has seen a potential to produce more reliable officetel price indexes reflecting high volatility compared to those indexes produced by other institutions, contributing to resolving 'smoothing'. As seen in the application in Seoul, this approach can enhance accuracy and, therefore, better assist market players to understand the market trend, which is much valuable under great uncertainties such as COVID-19 environments.

• Journal of International Area Studies (JIAS)
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.499-524
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• 2010

The purpose of this study is to based on review of theoretical and empirical studies to assess the independence of central banks - the former Socialist republics, including the Russian Federation and Czech, Poland. In addition, the work is expected to clarify whether a link exists between independence and the most important economic indicators such as inflation, economic activity, the budget deficit. And The subject of this study are the formal and actual independence of national banks, as well as limiting factors: political and economic. Background investigation of the problem of independence of central banks from the fact that, according to many economists, it is essential to the successful development of a market economy. The effectiveness of any country's economy due to currency volatility, low inflation, high reliability of the banking system, etc. As far as the independence of monetary regulation contributes to these goals - one of the most actively debated issues in the world of economic theory and practice for a long time. The issue of central bank independence is extremely important for Russia, Czech, Poland. In the near future to the central bank has important tasks, among which are the transition to inflation targeting in the rejection of significant intervention in the foreign exchange market, as well as improving the sustainability of the national banking system. Transparency and independence of the Bank of Russia, Czech Republic, Poland, in my view, should be an important factor in achieving these goals. The countries of Czech Republic, Poland have already made a number of steps to bring the status of their banks to the European standards. Many other developing countries are also in the process of reforming their central banks and the improving conditions of their functioning. However, despite the fact that as a model for reform used by the central banks of countries with developed market economies, central banks in developing countries are still yet deprived of the legal, economic and political independence. A different situation exists in transition space. Because of significant differences in the views of the authorities in transition republics at the necessary level of independence of central banks and the exchange rate and monetary policy reform of monetary management in these countries led to different results.