• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확인비용

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Clickstream Big Data Mining for Demographics based Digital Marketing (인구통계특성 기반 디지털 마케팅을 위한 클릭스트림 빅데이터 마이닝)

  • Park, Jiae;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.143-163
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    • 2016
  • The demographics of Internet users are the most basic and important sources for target marketing or personalized advertisements on the digital marketing channels which include email, mobile, and social media. However, it gradually has become difficult to collect the demographics of Internet users because their activities are anonymous in many cases. Although the marketing department is able to get the demographics using online or offline surveys, these approaches are very expensive, long processes, and likely to include false statements. Clickstream data is the recording an Internet user leaves behind while visiting websites. As the user clicks anywhere in the webpage, the activity is logged in semi-structured website log files. Such data allows us to see what pages users visited, how long they stayed there, how often they visited, when they usually visited, which site they prefer, what keywords they used to find the site, whether they purchased any, and so forth. For such a reason, some researchers tried to guess the demographics of Internet users by using their clickstream data. They derived various independent variables likely to be correlated to the demographics. The variables include search keyword, frequency and intensity for time, day and month, variety of websites visited, text information for web pages visited, etc. The demographic attributes to predict are also diverse according to the paper, and cover gender, age, job, location, income, education, marital status, presence of children. A variety of data mining methods, such as LSA, SVM, decision tree, neural network, logistic regression, and k-nearest neighbors, were used for prediction model building. However, this research has not yet identified which data mining method is appropriate to predict each demographic variable. Moreover, it is required to review independent variables studied so far and combine them as needed, and evaluate them for building the best prediction model. The objective of this study is to choose clickstream attributes mostly likely to be correlated to the demographics from the results of previous research, and then to identify which data mining method is fitting to predict each demographic attribute. Among the demographic attributes, this paper focus on predicting gender, age, marital status, residence, and job. And from the results of previous research, 64 clickstream attributes are applied to predict the demographic attributes. The overall process of predictive model building is compose of 4 steps. In the first step, we create user profiles which include 64 clickstream attributes and 5 demographic attributes. The second step performs the dimension reduction of clickstream variables to solve the curse of dimensionality and overfitting problem. We utilize three approaches which are based on decision tree, PCA, and cluster analysis. We build alternative predictive models for each demographic variable in the third step. SVM, neural network, and logistic regression are used for modeling. The last step evaluates the alternative models in view of model accuracy and selects the best model. For the experiments, we used clickstream data which represents 5 demographics and 16,962,705 online activities for 5,000 Internet users. IBM SPSS Modeler 17.0 was used for our prediction process, and the 5-fold cross validation was conducted to enhance the reliability of our experiments. As the experimental results, we can verify that there are a specific data mining method well-suited for each demographic variable. For example, age prediction is best performed when using the decision tree based dimension reduction and neural network whereas the prediction of gender and marital status is the most accurate by applying SVM without dimension reduction. We conclude that the online behaviors of the Internet users, captured from the clickstream data analysis, could be well used to predict their demographics, thereby being utilized to the digital marketing.

The Market Segmentation of Coffee Shops and the Difference Analysis of Consumer Behavior: A Case based on Caffe Bene (커피전문점의 시장세분화와 소비자행동 차이 분석 : 카페베네 사례를 중심으로)

  • Yu, Jong-Pil;Yoon, Nam-Soo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.5-13
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    • 2011
  • This study provides analysis of the effectiveness of domestic marketing strategies of the Korean coffee shop "Caffe Bene". It bases its evaluation on statistical outputs of 'choice attributes,' "market segmentation," demographic characteristics," and "satisfaction differences." The results are summarized in four points. First, five choice attributes were extracted from factor analysis: price, atmosphere, comfort, taste, and location; these are related to coffee shop selection behavior. Based on these five factors, cluster analysis was conducted, with statistical results classifying customers into three major groups: atmosphere oriented; comfort oriented; and taste oriented. Second, discriminant analysis tested cluster analysis and showed two discriminant functions: location and atmosphere. Third, cross-tabulation analysis based on demographic characteristics showed distinctive demographic characteristics within the three groups. Atmosphere oriented group, early-20s, as women of all ages was found to be 'walking down the street 'and 'through acquaintances' in many cases, as the cognitive path, and mostly found the store through 'outdoor advertising', and 'introduction'. Comfort oriented group was mainly women who are students in their early twenties or professionals, and appeared as a group to be very loyal because of high recommendation to other customers compared to other groups. Taste oriented group, unlike the other group, was mainly late-20s' college graduates, and was confirmed, as low loyalty, with lower recommendation activity. Fourth, to analyze satisfaction differences, one-way ANOVA was conducted. It shows that groups which show high satisfaction in the five main factors also show high menu satisfaction and high overall satisfaction. This results show that segmented marketing strategies are necessary because customers are considering price, atmosphere, comfort, taste, location when they choose coffee shop and demographics show different attributes based on segmented groups. For example, atmosphere oriented group is satisfied with shop interior and comfort while dissatisfied with price because most of the customers in this group are early 20s and do not have great financial capability. Thus, price discounting marketing strategies based on individual situations through CRM system is critical. Comfort oriented group shows high satisfaction level about location and shop comfort. Also, in this group, there are many early 20s female customers, students, and self-employed people. This group customers show high word of mouth tendency, hence providing positive brand image to the customers would be important. In case of taste oriented group, while the scores of taste and location are high, word of mouth score is low. This group is mainly composed of educated and professional many late 20s customers, therefore, menu differentiation, increasing quality of coffee taste and price discrimination is critical to increase customers' satisfaction. However, it is hard to generalize the results of study to other coffee shop brand, because this study have researched only one domestic coffee shop, Caffe Bene. Thus if future study expand the scope of locations, brands, and occupations, the results of the study would provide more generalizable results. Finally, research of customer satisfactions of menu, trust, loyalty, and switching cost would be critical in the future study.

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A Study on the Revitalization of Tourism Industry through Big Data Analysis (한국관광 실태조사 빅 데이터 분석을 통한 관광산업 활성화 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Jungmi;Liu, Meina;Lim, Gyoo Gun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.149-169
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    • 2018
  • Korea is currently accumulating a large amount of data in public institutions based on the public data open policy and the "Government 3.0". Especially, a lot of data is accumulated in the tourism field. However, the academic discussions utilizing the tourism data are still limited. Moreover, the openness of the data of restaurants, hotels, and online tourism information, and how to use SNS Big Data in tourism are still limited. Therefore, utilization through tourism big data analysis is still low. In this paper, we tried to analyze influencing factors on foreign tourists' satisfaction in Korea through numerical data using data mining technique and R programming technique. In this study, we tried to find ways to revitalize the tourism industry by analyzing about 36,000 big data of the "Survey on the actual situation of foreign tourists from 2013 to 2015" surveyed by the Korea Culture & Tourism Research Institute. To do this, we analyzed the factors that have high influence on the 'Satisfaction', 'Revisit intention', and 'Recommendation' variables of foreign tourists. Furthermore, we analyzed the practical influences of the variables that are mentioned above. As a procedure of this study, we first integrated survey data of foreign tourists conducted by Korea Culture & Tourism Research Institute, which is stored in the tourist information system from 2013 to 2015, and eliminate unnecessary variables that are inconsistent with the research purpose among the integrated data. Some variables were modified to improve the accuracy of the analysis. And we analyzed the factors affecting the dependent variables by using data-mining methods: decision tree(C5.0, CART, CHAID, QUEST), artificial neural network, and logistic regression analysis of SPSS IBM Modeler 16.0. The seven variables that have the greatest effect on each dependent variable were derived. As a result of data analysis, it was found that seven major variables influencing 'overall satisfaction' were sightseeing spot attraction, food satisfaction, accommodation satisfaction, traffic satisfaction, guide service satisfaction, number of visiting places, and country. Variables that had a great influence appeared food satisfaction and sightseeing spot attraction. The seven variables that had the greatest influence on 'revisit intention' were the country, travel motivation, activity, food satisfaction, best activity, guide service satisfaction and sightseeing spot attraction. The most influential variables were food satisfaction and travel motivation for Korean style. Lastly, the seven variables that have the greatest influence on the 'recommendation intention' were the country, sightseeing spot attraction, number of visiting places, food satisfaction, activity, tour guide service satisfaction and cost. And then the variables that had the greatest influence were the country, sightseeing spot attraction, and food satisfaction. In addition, in order to grasp the influence of each independent variables more deeply, we used R programming to identify the influence of independent variables. As a result, it was found that the food satisfaction and sightseeing spot attraction were higher than other variables in overall satisfaction and had a greater effect than other influential variables. Revisit intention had a higher ${\beta}$ value in the travel motive as the purpose of Korean Wave than other variables. It will be necessary to have a policy that will lead to a substantial revisit of tourists by enhancing tourist attractions for the purpose of Korean Wave. Lastly, the recommendation had the same result of satisfaction as the sightseeing spot attraction and food satisfaction have higher ${\beta}$ value than other variables. From this analysis, we found that 'food satisfaction' and 'sightseeing spot attraction' variables were the common factors to influence three dependent variables that are mentioned above('Overall satisfaction', 'Revisit intention' and 'Recommendation'), and that those factors affected the satisfaction of travel in Korea significantly. The purpose of this study is to examine how to activate foreign tourists in Korea through big data analysis. It is expected to be used as basic data for analyzing tourism data and establishing effective tourism policy. It is expected to be used as a material to establish an activation plan that can contribute to tourism development in Korea in the future.

Utilization Pattern of Complementary Therapy in Hypertension, Diabetes and Chronic Arthritis Patients Visited to Local Health Center (일개 보건소를 방문하는 고혈압, 당뇨 및 관절염환자의 보완요법 이용실태)

  • Park, Ae-Ju;Park, Jae-Yong;Han, Chang-Hyun
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2003
  • Objectives: The objective of this study is to investigate the use rate and some aspect of complementary therapies used by patients with chronic illness(hypertension, diabetic mellitus and chronic arthritis). Methods: 600 patients visiting the health center for one month(Jan. 2001) were interviewed on their complementary therapies used by the subjects for the previous year. Results: About fourteen-eight percent of the respondents used therapies; 35% of patients with hypertension, 44.6% of patients with diabetic mellitus and 62.9% of patients with chronic arthritis, which shows the highest rate among patients with three chronic disease. The use rate of complementary therapies indicates few meaningful differences according to the general characteristics of the interviewees. Hypertension patients used herb medication(31.0%) acupuncture(29.6%) and most of all the other therapies. Diabetic patients used dietary therapy(57.5%) and herb medication(35.1%). Chronic arthritis patients used acupuncture(85%) and herb medication(34.7%). 36.8% of all the patients who used complementary therapies tried more than two therapies. 18.3% of hypertension patients, 24.1% of diabetic patients and 55.9% of chronic arthritis patients used more than two therapies. Acupuncture(47%) was used most frequently, followed by herb medications(26.3%), health assistance utensils(21.8%). oriental therapy(21.8%), physical therapy(9.5%), health assistance food(8.4%), herb(7.7%), Korea hand acupuncture(3.2%), abdomen respiration(1.1%), and pore therapy(0.7%) Oriental clinic was visited most frequently(42.8%), which was used to cure diseases(61.8%), and to relieve symptoms(26.0%). (p<0.001) The cost spent on complementary therapies last year was 90,000 won(40.3%) and there are some cases of more than 500,000 won(31.2%). Most of the patients(56.1%) were satisfied with the complementary therapies, with 6% of them having side effects. 74% of the patients used complementary therapies answered that they would continue them and 56.1% of them also answered that they would continue them and 56.1% of them also answered that they would advise other patients to do them. Advantages(compared with those of orthodox medical treatment) are psychological comfort(28.1%), body protection(26.0%), effectiveness(20.0%). 34% of the patients using complementary therapies wanted to have informational orientation on complementary therapies. These findings reveal that a considerable number of patients with chronic illness(47.5%) tried a variety of complementary therapies. Though 6% of the patients using therapies had side effects, most of the subjects seemed satisfied with them and they are supposed to continue them. Conclusions: In conclusion, health center personnels and medical doctors should pay more attention to the complementary therapies used by patients with chronic illness. They also have to try their best to advise more scientific and informative complementary programs with less side effects and more help to improve their conditions.

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Review of 2015 Major Medical Decisions (2015년 주요 의료판결 분석)

  • Yoo, Hyun Jung;Lee, Dong Pil;Lee, Jung Sun;Jeong, Hye Seung;Park, Tae Shin
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.299-346
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    • 2016
  • There were also various decisions made in medical area in 2015. In the case that an inmate in a sanatorium was injured due to the reason which can be attributable to the sanatorium and the social welfare foundation that operates the sanatorium request treatment of the patient, the court set the standard of fixation of a party in medical contract. In the case that the family of the patient who was declared brain dead required withdrawal of meaningless life sustaining treatment but the hospital rejected and continued the treatment, the court made a decision regarding chargeable fee for such treatment. When it comes to the eye brightening operation which received measure of suspension from the Ministry of Health and Welfare for the first time in February, 2011, because of uncertainty of its safety, the court did not accept the illegality of such operation itself, however, ordered compensation of the whole damage based on the violation of liability for explanation, which is the omission of explanation about the fact that the cost-effectiveness is not sure as it is still in clinical test stage. There were numerous cases that courts actively acknowledged malpractices; in the cases of paresis syndrome after back surgery, quite a few malpractices during the surgery were acknowledged by the court and in the case of nosocomial infection, hospital's negligence to cause such nosocomial infection was acknowledged by the court. There was a decision which acknowledged malpractice by distinguishing the duty of installation of emergency equipment according to the Emergency Medical Service Act and duty of emergency measure in emergency situations, and a decision which acknowledged negligence of a hospital if the hospital did not take appropriate measures, although it was a very rare disease. In connection with the scope of compensation for damage, there were decisions which comply with substantive truth such as; a court applied different labor ability loss rate as the labor ability loss rate decreased after result of reappraisal of physical ability in appeal compared to the one in the first trial, and a court acknowledged lower labor ability loss rate than the result of appraisal of physical ability considering the condition of a patient, etc. In the event of any damage caused by malpractice, in regard to whether there is a limitation on liability in fee charge after such medical malpractice, the court rejected the hospital's claim for setoff saying that if the hospital only continued treatments to cure the patient or prevent aggravation of disease, the hospital cannot charge Medical bills to the patient. In regard to the provision of the Medical Law that prohibit medical advertisement which was not reviewed preliminarily and punish the violation of such, a decision of unconstitutionality was made as it is a precensorship by an administrative agency as the deliberative bodies such as Korean Medical Association, etc. cannot be denied to be considered as administrative bodies. When it comes to the issue whether PRP treatment, which is commonly performed clinically, should be considered as legally determined uninsured treatment, the court made it clear that legally determined uninsured treatment should not be decided by theoretical possibility or actual implementation but should be acknowledged its medical safety and effectiveness and included in medical care or legally determined uninsured treatment. Moreover, court acknowledged the illegality of investigation method or process in the administrative litigation regarding evaluation of suitability of sanatorium, however, denied the compensation liability or restitution of unjust enrichment of the Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service and the National Health Insurance Corporation as the evaluation agents did not cause such violation intentionally or negligently. We hope there will be more decisions which are closer to substantive truth through clear legal principles in respect of variously arisen issues in the future.

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The Ability of Anti-tumor Necrosis Factor Alpha(TNF-${\alpha}$) Antibodies Produced in Sheep Colostrums

  • Yun, Sung-Seob
    • 한국유가공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.09a
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2007
  • Inflammatory process leads to the well-known mucosal damage and therefore a further disturbance of the epithelial barrier function, resulting abnormal intestinal wall function, even further accelerating the inflammatory process[1]. Despite of the records, etiology and pathogenesis of IBD remain rather unclear. There are many studies over the past couple of years have led to great advanced in understanding the inflammatory bowel disease(IBD) and their underlying pathophysiologic mechanisms. From the current understanding, it is likely that chronic inflammation in IBD is due to aggressive cellular immune responses including increased serum concentrations of different cytokines. Therefore, targeted molecules can be specifically eliminated in their expression directly on the transcriptional level. Interesting therapeutic trials are expected against adhesion molecules and pro-inflammatory cytokines such as TNF-${\alpha}$. The future development of immune therapies in IBD therefore holds great promises for better treatment modalities of IBD but will also open important new insights into a further understanding of inflammation pathophysiology. Treatment of cytokine inhibitors such as Immunex(Enbrel) and J&J/Centocor(Remicade) which are mouse-derived monoclonal antibodies have been shown in several studies to modulate the symptoms of patients, however, theses TNF inhibitors also have an adverse effect immune-related problems and also are costly and must be administered by injection. Because of the eventual development of unwanted side effects, these two products are used in only a select patient population. The present study was performed to elucidate the ability of TNF-${\alpha}$ antibodies produced in sheep colostrums to neutralize TNF-${\alpha}$ action in a cell-based bioassay and in a small animal model of intestinal inflammation. In vitro study, inhibitory effect of anti-TNF-${\alpha}$ antibody from the sheep was determined by cell bioassay. The antibody from the sheep at 1 in 10,000 dilution was able to completely inhibit TNF-${\alpha}$ activity in the cell bioassay. The antibodies from the same sheep, but different milkings, exhibited some variability in inhibition of TNF-${\alpha}$ activity, but were all greater than the control sample. In vivo study, the degree of inflammation was severe to experiment, despite of the initial pilot trial, main trial 1 was unable to figure out of any effect of antibody to reduce the impact of PAF and LPS. Main rat trial 2 resulted no significant symptoms like characteristic acute diarrhea and weight loss of colitis. This study suggested that colostrums from sheep immunized against TNF-${\alpha}$ significantly inhibited TNF-${\alpha}$ bioactivity in the cell based assay. And the higher than anticipated variability in the two animal models precluded assessment of the ability of antibody to prevent TNF-${\alpha}$ induced intestinal damage in the intact animal. Further study will require to find out an alternative animal model, which is more acceptable to test anti-TNF-${\alpha}$ IgA therapy for reducing the impact of inflammation on gut dysfunction. And subsequent pre-clinical and clinical testing also need generation of more antibody as current supplies are low.

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The Effects of Autologous Blood Pleurodesis in the Pneumothorax with Persistent Air Leak (지속성 기흉에서 자가혈액을 이용한 흉막유착술의 효과)

  • Yoon, Su-Mi;Shin, Sung-Joon;Kim, Young-Chan;Shon, Jang-Won;Yang, Seok-Chul;Yoon, Ho-Joo;Shin, Dong-Ho;Chung, Won-Sang;Park, Sung-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.724-732
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    • 2000
  • Background : In patients with severe chronic lung diseases even a small pneumothorax can result in life-threatening respiratory distress. It is important to treat the attack by chest tube drainage until the lung expands. Pneumothorax with a persistent air leak that does not resolve under prolonged tube thoracostomy suction is usually treated by open operation to excise or oversew a bulla or cluster of blebs to stop the air leak. Pleurodesis by the instillation of chemical agents is used for the patient who has persistent air leak and is not good candidate for surgical treatment. When the primary trial of pleurodesis with common agent fails, it is uncertain which agent should be used f or stopping the air leak by pleurodesis. It is well known that inappropriate drainage of hemothorax results in severe pleural adhesion and thickening. Based on this idea, some reports described a successful treatment with autologous blood instillation for pneumothorax patients with or without residual pleural space. We tried pleurodesis with autologous bood for pneumothorax with persistent air leak and then we evaluated the efficacy and safety. Methods : Fifteen patients who had persistent air leak in the pneumothorax complicated from the severe chronic lung disease were enrolled. They were not good candidates for surgical treatment and doxycycline pleurodesis failed to stop up their air leaks. We used a mixture of autologous blood and 50% dextrose for pleurodesis. Effect and complications were assessed by clinical out∞me, chest radiography and pulmonary function tests. Results : The mean duration of air leak was 18.4${\pm}$6.16 days before ABP (autologous blood and dextrose pleurodesis) and $5.2{\pm}1.68$ days after ABP. The mean severity of pain was $2.3{\pm}0.70$ for DP(doxycycline pleurodesis) and $1.7{\pm}0.59$ for ABDP (p<0.05). There was no other complication except mild fever. Pleural adhesion grade was a mean of $0.6{\pm}0.63$. The mean dyspnea scale was $1.7{\pm}0.46$ before pneumothrax and $2.0{\pm}0.59$ after ABDP (p>0.05). The mean $FEV_1$ was $1.47{\pm}1.01$ before pneumothorax and $1.44{\pm}1.00$ after ABDP (p>0.05). Except in 1 patient, 14 patients had no recurrent pneumothorax. Conclusion : Autologous blood pleurodesis (ABP) was successful for treatment of persistent air leak in the pneumothorax. It was easy and inexpensive and involved less pain than doxycycline pleurodesis. It did not cause complications and severe pleural adhesion. We report that ABP can be considered as a useful treatment for persistent air leak in the pneumothorax complicated from the severe chronic lung disease.

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Geochemical Equilibria and Kinetics of the Formation of Brown-Colored Suspended/Precipitated Matter in Groundwater: Suggestion to Proper Pumping and Turbidity Treatment Methods (지하수내 갈색 부유/침전 물질의 생성 반응에 관한 평형 및 반응속도론적 연구: 적정 양수 기법 및 탁도 제거 방안에 대한 제안)

  • 채기탁;윤성택;염승준;김남진;민중혁
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.103-115
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    • 2000
  • The formation of brown-colored precipitates is one of the serious problems frequently encountered in the development and supply of groundwater in Korea, because by it the water exceeds the drinking water standard in terms of color. taste. turbidity and dissolved iron concentration and of often results in scaling problem within the water supplying system. In groundwaters from the Pajoo area, brown precipitates are typically formed in a few hours after pumping-out. In this paper we examine the process of the brown precipitates' formation using the equilibrium thermodynamic and kinetic approaches, in order to understand the origin and geochemical pathway of the generation of turbidity in groundwater. The results of this study are used to suggest not only the proper pumping technique to minimize the formation of precipitates but also the optimal design of water treatment methods to improve the water quality. The bed-rock groundwater in the Pajoo area belongs to the Ca-$HCO_3$type that was evolved through water/rock (gneiss) interaction. Based on SEM-EDS and XRD analyses, the precipitates are identified as an amorphous, Fe-bearing oxides or hydroxides. By the use of multi-step filtration with pore sizes of 6, 4, 1, 0.45 and 0.2 $\mu\textrm{m}$, the precipitates mostly fall in the colloidal size (1 to 0.45 $\mu\textrm{m}$) but are concentrated (about 81%) in the range of 1 to 6 $\mu\textrm{m}$in teams of mass (weight) distribution. Large amounts of dissolved iron were possibly originated from dissolution of clinochlore in cataclasite which contains high amounts of Fe (up to 3 wt.%). The calculation of saturation index (using a computer code PHREEQC), as well as the examination of pH-Eh stability relations, also indicate that the final precipitates are Fe-oxy-hydroxide that is formed by the change of water chemistry (mainly, oxidation) due to the exposure to oxygen during the pumping-out of Fe(II)-bearing, reduced groundwater. After pumping-out, the groundwater shows the progressive decreases of pH, DO and alkalinity with elapsed time. However, turbidity increases and then decreases with time. The decrease of dissolved Fe concentration as a function of elapsed time after pumping-out is expressed as a regression equation Fe(II)=10.l exp(-0.0009t). The oxidation reaction due to the influx of free oxygen during the pumping and storage of groundwater results in the formation of brown precipitates, which is dependent on time, $Po_2$and pH. In order to obtain drinkable water quality, therefore, the precipitates should be removed by filtering after the stepwise storage and aeration in tanks with sufficient volume for sufficient time. Particle size distribution data also suggest that step-wise filtration would be cost-effective. To minimize the scaling within wells, the continued (if possible) pumping within the optimum pumping rate is recommended because this technique will be most effective for minimizing the mixing between deep Fe(II)-rich water and shallow $O_2$-rich water. The simultaneous pumping of shallow $O_2$-rich water in different wells is also recommended.

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Development of a Stock Trading System Using M & W Wave Patterns and Genetic Algorithms (M&W 파동 패턴과 유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 주식 매매 시스템 개발)

  • Yang, Hoonseok;Kim, Sunwoong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.63-83
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    • 2019
  • Investors prefer to look for trading points based on the graph shown in the chart rather than complex analysis, such as corporate intrinsic value analysis and technical auxiliary index analysis. However, the pattern analysis technique is difficult and computerized less than the needs of users. In recent years, there have been many cases of studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques including neural networks in the field of artificial intelligence(AI). In particular, the development of IT technology has made it easier to analyze a huge number of chart data to find patterns that can predict stock prices. Although short-term forecasting power of prices has increased in terms of performance so far, long-term forecasting power is limited and is used in short-term trading rather than long-term investment. Other studies have focused on mechanically and accurately identifying patterns that were not recognized by past technology, but it can be vulnerable in practical areas because it is a separate matter whether the patterns found are suitable for trading. When they find a meaningful pattern, they find a point that matches the pattern. They then measure their performance after n days, assuming that they have bought at that point in time. Since this approach is to calculate virtual revenues, there can be many disparities with reality. The existing research method tries to find a pattern with stock price prediction power, but this study proposes to define the patterns first and to trade when the pattern with high success probability appears. The M & W wave pattern published by Merrill(1980) is simple because we can distinguish it by five turning points. Despite the report that some patterns have price predictability, there were no performance reports used in the actual market. The simplicity of a pattern consisting of five turning points has the advantage of reducing the cost of increasing pattern recognition accuracy. In this study, 16 patterns of up conversion and 16 patterns of down conversion are reclassified into ten groups so that they can be easily implemented by the system. Only one pattern with high success rate per group is selected for trading. Patterns that had a high probability of success in the past are likely to succeed in the future. So we trade when such a pattern occurs. It is a real situation because it is measured assuming that both the buy and sell have been executed. We tested three ways to calculate the turning point. The first method, the minimum change rate zig-zag method, removes price movements below a certain percentage and calculates the vertex. In the second method, high-low line zig-zag, the high price that meets the n-day high price line is calculated at the peak price, and the low price that meets the n-day low price line is calculated at the valley price. In the third method, the swing wave method, the high price in the center higher than n high prices on the left and right is calculated as the peak price. If the central low price is lower than the n low price on the left and right, it is calculated as valley price. The swing wave method was superior to the other methods in the test results. It is interpreted that the transaction after checking the completion of the pattern is more effective than the transaction in the unfinished state of the pattern. Genetic algorithms(GA) were the most suitable solution, although it was virtually impossible to find patterns with high success rates because the number of cases was too large in this simulation. We also performed the simulation using the Walk-forward Analysis(WFA) method, which tests the test section and the application section separately. So we were able to respond appropriately to market changes. In this study, we optimize the stock portfolio because there is a risk of over-optimized if we implement the variable optimality for each individual stock. Therefore, we selected the number of constituent stocks as 20 to increase the effect of diversified investment while avoiding optimization. We tested the KOSPI market by dividing it into six categories. In the results, the portfolio of small cap stock was the most successful and the high vol stock portfolio was the second best. This shows that patterns need to have some price volatility in order for patterns to be shaped, but volatility is not the best.

Consideration on National Rituals and Folk Beliefs Found in 『Hajaeilgi』 (『하재일기』에 나타난 국가의례와 민간신앙 일고찰)

  • Song, Jae Yong
    • (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
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    • no.69
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    • pp.349-371
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    • 2017
  • "Hajaeilgi(荷齋日記)" was written by Ji Gyu-sik, a gongin of Saongwon(司饔院)'s branch, almost everyday for 20 years and 7 months from January 1st, 1891 until the leap month of June 29th, 1911. It deals with many different areas including domestic and foreign circumstances, custom, rituals, all the affairs related to the branch, and also everyday life events he did see or hear about. Particularly, Ji Gyu-sik did not belong to the yangban class, and we can hardly find diaries written by such class' people. Here, what this author pays attention to among the things written in "Hajaeilgi" is the contents about folklore. Ji Gyu-sik wrote in his "Hajaeilgi" about things related to folklore, for example, seasonal customs, folk plays, rituals, or folk beliefs that were actually practiced then as a person not belonging to the yangban class. Such diaries are rare, and its value is highly appreciated as a material, and it is meaningful in the aspects of folklore as well. Therefore, as part of the work to look into folklore found in "Hajaeilgi", this author focuses on national rituals and folk beliefs in it. The things that have been discussed earlier can be summed up as follows: About national rituals, it is sorry that it only deals with the emperor's enthronement and emperor and crown prince's birthday in garye(嘉禮); however, it is meaningful to know that the people faithfully carried out national ceremonies and celebrations then. Particularly, it is noteworthy that during the national ceremonies or celebrations, students were asked to sing the national anthem. About hyungrye(凶禮), only it deals with the court funeral rite. Aside from Minbi's funeral rite, the court funeral rite was performed properly at the right time according to the procedure like before, and also, it seems that the people fulfilled it faithfully by order of the government. Also, it can be learned from it that Japanese killed Minbi, burned the body with oil, and left the ashes behind. About folk beliefs, the branch held a memorial service at the shrine of the town regularly. The town, too, performed Gocheongsinsa each year. The money needed for the memorial service was collected from the town people differently according to their financial situations, and they prepared for jesu for the ancestral rite altogether. The memorial service was carried out in Sansindang or Bugeundang, too, and it was common that they summoned a shaman to perform a gut. The diary is valuable as material. After being a Christian, Ji Gyu-sik once tried to abolish sinsa jesa held in hoesa and get rid of saesin(賽神), that is, a gut or pudakgeori, but he had no choice but to follow the precedent. Meanwhile, it is also noteworthy that when the town suffered from floor and infectious disease, Ji Gyu-sik installed an altar in front of his house for the town's wellbeing and health, prepared for jesu including offerings and drinks, and held a memorial service to Hwangcheonhuto(皇天后土; the gods of heaven and earth) accompanied with the town people. Also, when he had any hardships in his family, Ji Gyu-sik summoned a shaman for a gut or offered a devout prayer to the mountainous god. Such shamanism or the things like worshiping Gwanseongjegun(關聖帝君) mostly in the beginning of January and telling fortunes about the year were all folk beliefs. This was very popular among the people, and it seems that it was deeply rooted in his life as well. Also, Ji Gyu-sik supported Fengshui beliefs, and it seems that it is not different from the people's general tendencies, either. As described above, "Hajaeilgi" dealing with national rituals and folk beliefs in it is valuable as material and is meaningful for research on forklore, and moreover, it is also significant in the aspects of forklore as well.