• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률적 신뢰구간

Search Result 93, Processing Time 0.017 seconds

Bias Correction for GCM Long-term Prediction using Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (비정상성 분위사상법을 이용한 GCM 장기예측 편차보정)

  • Moon, Soojin;Kim, Jungjoong;Kang, Boosik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.46 no.8
    • /
    • pp.833-842
    • /
    • 2013
  • The quantile mapping is utilized to reproduce reliable GCM(Global Climate Model) data by correct systematic biases included in the original data set. This scheme, in general, projects the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the underlying data set into the target CDF assuming that parameters of target distribution function is stationary. Therefore, the application of stationary quantile mapping for nonstationary long-term time series data of future precipitation scenario computed by GCM can show biased projection. In this research the Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (NSQM) scheme was suggested for bias correction of nonstationary long-term time series data. The proposed scheme uses the statistical parameters with nonstationary long-term trends. The Gamma distribution was assumed for the object and target probability distribution. As the climate change scenario, the 20C3M(baseline scenario) and SRES A2 scenario (projection scenario) of CGCM3.1/T63 model from CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis) were utilized. The precipitation data were collected from 10 rain gauge stations in the Han-river basin. In order to consider seasonal characteristics, the study was performed separately for the flood (June~October) and nonflood (November~May) seasons. The periods for baseline and projection scenario were set as 1973~2000 and 2011~2100, respectively. This study evaluated the performance of NSQM by experimenting various ways of setting parameters of target distribution. The projection scenarios were shown for 3 different periods of FF scenario (Foreseeable Future Scenario, 2011~2040 yr), MF scenario (Mid-term Future Scenario, 2041~2070 yr), LF scenario (Long-term Future Scenario, 2071~2100 yr). The trend test for the annual precipitation projection using NSQM shows 330.1 mm (25.2%), 564.5 mm (43.1%), and 634.3 mm (48.5%) increase for FF, MF, and LF scenarios, respectively. The application of stationary scheme shows overestimated projection for FF scenario and underestimated projection for LF scenario. This problem could be improved by applying nonstationary quantile mapping.

Evaluation on the Accuracy of Targeting Error Correction Through the Application of Target Locating System in Robotic CyberKnife (로봇 사이버나이프에서 위치인식시스템을 이용한 Targeting Error값 보정의 정확성 평가)

  • Jeong, Young-Joon;Jung, Jae-Hong;Lim, Kwang-Chae;Cho, Eun-Ju
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-7
    • /
    • 2009
  • Purpose: The purpose is to evaluate the accuracy of correcting the targeting error through the Target Location System (TLS) for the location change error of the reference point which arises from the movement or motion of patient during the treatment using the CyberKnife. Materials and Methods: In this test, Gafchromic MD-55 film was inserted into the head and neck phantom to analyze the accuracy of the targeting, and then the 6 MV X-ray of CyberKnife (CyberKnife Robotic Radiosurgery System G4, Accuray, US) was irradiated. End to End (E2E) program was used to analyze the accuracy of targeting, which is provided by Accuray Corporation. To compute the error of the targeting, the test was carried out with the films that were irradiated 12 times by maintaining the distance within the rage of $0{\pm}0.2\;mm$ toward x, y, z from the reference point and maintaining the angle within the rage of $0{\pm}0.2^{\circ}$ toward roll, pitch, yaw, and then with the films which were irradiated 6 times by applying intentional movement. And the correlation in the average value of the reference film and the test film were analyzed through independent samples t-test. In addition, the consistency of dose distribution through gamma-index method (dose difference: 3%) was quantified, compared, and analyzed by varying the distance to agreement (DTA) to 1 mm, 1.5 mm, 2 mm, respectively. Results: E2E test result indicated that the average error of the reference film was 0.405 mm and the standard deviation was 0.069 mm. The average error of the test film was 0.413 mm with the standard deviation of 0.121 mm. The result of independent sampling t-test for both averages showed that the significant probability was P=0.836 (confidence level: 95%). Besides, by comparing the consistency of dose distribution of DTA through 1 mm, 1.5 mm, 2 mm, it was found that the average dose distribution of axial film was 95.04%, 97.56%, 98.13%, respectively in 3,314 locations of the reference film, consistent with the average dose distribution of sagittal film that was 95.47%, 97.68%, 98.47%, respectively. By comparing with the test film, it was found that the average dose distribution of axial film was 96.38%, 97.57%, 98.04%, respectively, at 3,323 locations, consistent with the average dose distribution of sagittal film which was 95.50%, 97.87%, 98.36%, respectively. Conclusion: Robotic CyberKnife traces and complements in real time the error in the location change of the reference point caused by the motion or movement of patient during the treatment and provides the accuracy with the consistency of over 95% dose distribution and the targeting error below 1 mm.

  • PDF

A Study of Adjustment for Beginning & Ending Points of Climbing Lanes (오르막차로 시.종점 위치의 보정에 관한 연구)

  • 김상윤;오흥운
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.24 no.5 s.91
    • /
    • pp.35-44
    • /
    • 2006
  • Acceleration and deceleration curves have been used for design purposes worldwide. The curve in design level has been regarded as an single deterministic curve to be used for design of climb lanes. It should be noted that the curve was originally made using ideal driving truck and that the curve is applied during design based on the assumption of no difference between ideal and real driving conditions. However. observations show that aged vehicles and lazy behavioring drivers nay make lower performance of vehicles than the ideal performance. The present paper provides the results of truck speeds at climbing lanes then probabilistic variation of acceleration and deceleration corves. For these purposes. a study about identification of vehicle makers, and weights for trucks at freeway toll gates and then observation of vehicle-following speed were performed. The 85%ile results obtained were compared with the deterministic performance curves of 180, 200, and 220 Ib/hp. It was identified that the performance of 85%ile results obtained from vehicle-following-speed observations were lower than one from deterministic performance curves. From these results, it may be concluded that at the beginning Point of climbing lanes additional $16.19{\sim}67.94m$ is necessary and that at the end point of climbing lanes $53.12{\sim}103.24m$ of extension is necessary.