• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률적 다기준 의사결정

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Site Suitability Analysis Using Theory of Games (게임이론을 이용한 적지분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Sin;Lee, Sang-Il
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.275-279
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    • 2005
  • 수자원 개발에 있어 중요한 문제 중의 하나는 개발가능지의 선택과 후보지가 복수일 때 개발 우선순위를 결정하는 것이라 할 수 있다. 이러한 문제 해결을 위하여 적지분석을 실시한다. 적지분석 과정은 크게 기초 조사 및 자료수집, 예비후보지의 선정, 대안평가, 입지선정의 :t단계로 구분되는데 여기서 2-3단계인 예비후보지 선정과 대안평가 단계가 적지분석 기법이 적용되어야 할 과정이다. 기존의 의사결정 방법론들은 각 대안의 우선순위를 위해 각 항목들에 대한 가중치나 확률치를 이용한 수치적 계산에 의한 방법들이 대부분이며, 또한, 각 후보지에 대해서 동일한 항목에 대한 정보를 요구하게 되어 한 후보지이라도 정보가 없는 경우 우선순위를 위한 계산과정에서 제외하거나 결정자의 경험 등에 의한 추정 값을 사용할 수밖에 없다. 이러한 이유로 본 연구에서는 입지선정에서 대상 후보지의 인자비교를 위한 항목의 자료 유무에 관계없이 적지분석이 가능하도록 게임이론을 적용하여 수자원 개발 가능 후보지를 도출하기 위한 기본모형을 개발하였다.

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A Evaluation Model of AHP Results Using Monte Carlo Simulation (Depending on the Case Studies of Road and Rail) (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 통한 AHP결과 해석모형개발 (도로 및 철도부문 사례를 중심으로))

  • Sul, You-Jin;Chung, Sung-Bong;Song, Ki-Han;Chon, Kyung-Soo;Rhee, Sung-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.195-204
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    • 2008
  • Multi-Criteria Analysis is one method for optimizing decisions that include numerous characteristics and objective functions. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used as a general Multi-Criteria Analysis considering many critical issues. However, since validation procedures for the decision reliability of AHP valuers had been left off existing methodologies, a new methodology including such validation procedures is required to make more reliable decisions. In this research, idea decision results are derived using Monte Carlo Simulation in cases where AHP valuers do not have expertise in the specific project, and these results are compared with the results derived from experts to develop a new analysis model to make more reliable decisions. Finally, this new analysis is applied to various field case studies of road and rail carried out by the Korea Development Institute (KDI) between 2003 and 2006 to validate the new analysis model. The study found that approximately 20% of decisions resulting from the existing methodology are considered prudent. In future studies, the authors suggest analyzing the correlation between initial weights and final results since final results are enormously influenced by the initial weight.

A study of Vertical Handover between LTE and Wireless LAN Systems using Adaptive Fuzzy Logic Control and Policy based Multiple Criteria Decision Making Method (LTE/WLAN 이종망 환경에서 퍼지제어와 정책적 다기준 의사결정법을 이용한 적응적 VHO 방안 연구)

  • Lee, In-Hwan;Kim, Tae-Sub;Cho, Sung-Ho
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.17C no.3
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    • pp.271-280
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    • 2010
  • For the next generation mobile communication system, diverse wireless network techniques such as beyond 3G LTE, WiMAX/WiBro, and next generation WLAN etc. are proceeding to the form integrated into the All-IP core network. According to this development, Beyond 3G integrated into heterogeneous wireless access technologies must support the vertical handover and network to be used of several radio networks. However, unified management of each network is demanded since it is individually serviced. Therefore, in order to solve this problem this study is introducing the theory of Common Radio Resource Management (CRRM) based on Generic Link Layer (GLL). This study designs the structure and functions to support the vertical handover and propose the vertical handover algorithm of which policy-based and MCDM are composed between LTE and WLAN systems using GLL. Finally, simulation results are presented to show the improved performance over the data throughput, handover success rate, the system service cost and handover attempt number.

Vertical Handover between LTE and Wireless LAN Systems based on Common Radio Resource Management (CRRM) and Generic Link Layer (GLL) (LTE/WLAN 이종망 환경에서 범용링크계층과 통합무선자 원관리 기법이 적용된 VHO 방안 연구)

  • Kim, Tae-Sub;Oh, Ryong;Lee, Sang-Joon;Yoon, Suk-Ho;Ryu, Seung-Wan;Cho, Choong-Ho
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2010
  • For the next generation mobile communication system, diverse wireless network techniques such as beyond 3G LTE, WiMAX/WiBro, and next generation WLAN etc. are proceeding to the form integrated into the All-IP core network. According to this development, Beyond 3G integrated into heterogeneous wireless access technologies must support the vertical handover and network to be used of several radio networks. However, unified management of each network is demanded since it is individually serviced. Therefore, in order to solve this problem this study is introducing the theory of Common Radio Resource Management (CRRM) based on Generic Link Layer (GLL). This study designs the structure and functions to support the vertical handover and propose the vertical handover algorithm of which policy-based and MCDM are composed between LTE and WLAN systems using GLL and CRRM. Finally, simulation results are presented to show the improved performance over the data throughput, handover success rate and the system service cost.

TBM risk management system considering predicted ground condition ahead of tunnel face: methodology development and application (막장전방 예측기법에 근거한 TBM 터널의 리스크 관리 시스템 개발 및 현장적용)

  • Chung, Heeyoung;Park, Jeongjun;Lee, Kang-Hyun;Park, Jinho;Lee, In-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2016
  • When utilizing a Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) for tunnelling work, unexpected ground conditions can be encountered that are not predicted in the design stage. These include fractured zones or mixed ground conditions that are likely to reduce the stability of TBM excavation, and result in considerable economic losses such as construction delays or increases in costs. Minimizing these potential risks during tunnel construction is therefore a crucial issue in any mechanized tunneling project. This paper proposed the potential risk events that may occur due to risky ground conditions. A resistivity survey is utilized to predict the risky ground conditions ahead of the tunnel face during construction. The potential risk events are then evaluated based on their occurrence probability and impact. A TBM risk management system that can suggest proper solution methods (measures) for potential risk events is also developed. Multi-Criterion Decision Making (MCDM) is utilized to determine the optimal solution method (optimal measure) to handle risk events. Lastly, an actual construction site, at which there was a risk event during Earth Pressure-Balance (EPB) Shield TBM construction, is analyzed to verify the efficacy of the proposed system.

Location Analysis on the Melting System of Waste FRP Ship (폐 FRP선박 용융처리시스템 입지 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, S.W.;Jeon, T.B.;Park, J.M.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2010
  • The economical efficiency and easy ship building have enabled to spread FRP ships in the shipbuilding field. As waste FRP ships have been thrown away at a river or within a harbour, this matter has become issues. For the improvement of this matter, the melting technique and system of waste FRP ships was developed. But, Decision making was required for a location plan of the melting system of waste FRP ships. It's recognized that the location decision of this system is difficult due to the dependence on technical, economical, environmental factors. In this paper, we survey the primary factors of location-economic, life-environment, infrastructure and make up a question for the experts. We also calculate the important weight and related weight using Fuzzy AHP, Limiting probability method and discuss on the calculation results on the proposed sites.

Development of Reliability Estimation Method for Storm Sewer Networks (우수관망 신뢰도 산정방법의 개발)

  • Lee, Jung-Ho;Song, Yang-Ho;Ryu, Seung-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.470-470
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    • 2012
  • 우수관거 시스템에서의 신뢰도 분석에 대한 기존 연구들은 시스템의 설계상에서의 각종 매개변수들에 대한 불확실성 분석에 기초하여 왔다. 그러나 본 연구에서는 동일한 설계빈도하에 설계된 우수관망이라 하더라도 관망의 노선 선정에 따라서 유출구에서의 첨두유출량 및 초과강우사상에 따른 침수 발생량이 달라질 수 있다는 점에 주목하였다. 그러므로 신뢰도 높은 우수관망을 설계하기 위해서는 이러한 침수 발생 확률을 줄일 수 있도록 하여야 하며, 이를 위해서는 관망 구성에 따라 달라지는 신뢰도를 하나의 정량화된 수치로 나타야 한다. 본 연구에서는 설계빈도를 초과하는 강우사상들에 대하여 해당 우수관망의 월류 발생 정도를 정량적으로 평가함으로써 상대적인 신뢰도를 하나의 지표로서 나타내고자 하였다. 이때 고려되는 것은 초과강우사상 발생 시 해당 관망에서의 월류 발생량 및 월류 발생 지점 개수이다. 또한 이때 고려 대상이 되는 월류량 및 월류 발생지점 수는 서로 다른 척도를 갖는 항목이므로 이에 대한 종합적인 고려를 위하여 본 연구에서는 다기준의사결정기법 중 하나인 DMM(Distance Measure Method)을 이용하였다. 본 연구에서 개발한 우수관망 신뢰도의 산정 절차는 다음과 같다. step 1) 초과빈도별 월류 발생량 및 월류 발생 지점 수 산정 step 2) 빈도별 월류발생량 비율( ) 및 월류발생지점 비율($N_i$) 산정 $$V_i$$ $$V_o/V/R$$ $$N_i=N_o/N_T/R$$ 여기서, $V_i$는 적용된 강우량당 유역의 전체 유출량 대비 월류발생량을 나타내며, $N_i$는 적용된 강우량당 해당 관망의 전체 지점 수 대비 월류 발생지점 수를 나타낸다. step 3) 중심점(central point)에 대하여 DMM을 이용한 치수안전성 산정 $$Reliability\;of\;Sewer\;Networks=1-\;{(1-N_i)^2+(1-V_i)^2\atop2}$$.

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