• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률론적 해석

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Model Development Determining Probabilistic Ramp Merge Capacity Including Forced Merge Type (강제합류 형태를 포함한 확률적 연결로 합류용량 산정 모형 개발)

  • KIM, Sang Gu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2003
  • Over the decades, a lot of studies have dealt with the traffic characteristics and phenomena at a merging area. However, relatively few analytical techniques have been developed to evaluate the traffic flow at the area and, especially, the ramp merging capacity has rarely been. This study focused on the merging behaviors that were characterized by the relationship between the shoulder lane flow and the on-ramp flow, and modeled these behaviors to determine ramp merge capacity by using gap acceptance theory. In the process of building the model, both an ideal mergence and a forced mergence were considered when ramp-merging vehicles entered the gap provided by the flow of the shoulder lane. In addition, the model for the critical gap was proposed because the critical gap was the most influential factor to determine merging capacity in the developed models. The developed models showed that the merging capacity value was on the increase as the critical gap decreased and the shoulder lane volume increased. This study has a meaning of modeling the merging behaviors including the forced merging type to determine ramp merging capacity more precisely. The findings of this study would help analyze traffic phenomena and understand traffic behaviors at a merging area, and might be applicable to decide the primary parameters of on-ramp control by considering the effects of ramp merging flow.

Life Cycle Cost Analysis at Design Stage of Cable Stayed Bridges based on the Performance Degradation Models (성능저하모델에 기초한 사장교의 설계단계 생애주기비용 분석)

  • Koo, Bon Sung;Han, Sang Hoon;Cho, Choong Yuen
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.2081-2091
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    • 2013
  • Recently, the demand on the practical application of life-cycle cost effectiveness for design and rehabilitation of civil infrastructure is rapidly growing unprecedently in civil engineering practice. Accordingly, in the 21st century, it is almost obvious that life-cycle cost together with value engineering will become a new paradigm for all engineering decision problems in practice. However, in spite of impressive progress in the researches on the LCC, the most researches have only focused on the Deterministic or Probabilistic LCC analysis approach and general bridge at design stage. Thus, the goal of this study is to develop a practical and realistic methodology for the Life-Cycle Cost LCC-effective optimum decision-making based on reliability analysis of bridges at design stage. The proposed updated methodology is based on the concept of Life Cycle Performance(LCP) which is expressed as the sum of present value of expected direct/indirect maintenance costs with expected optimal maintenance scenario. The updated LCC methodology proposed in this study is applied to the optimum design problem of an actual highway bridge with Cable Stayed Bridges. In conclusion, based on the application of the proposed methods to an actual example bridge, it is demonstrated that a updated methodology for performance-based LCC analysis proposed in this thesis, shown applicably in practice as a efficient, practical, process LCC analysis method at design stage.

Surrogate Model-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis of an I-Shape Curved Steel Girder Bridge under Seismic Loads (지진하중을 받는 I형 곡선거더 단경간 교량의 대리모델 기반 전역 민감도 분석)

  • Jun-Tai, Jeon;Hoyoung Son;Bu-Seog, Ju
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.976-983
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The dynamic behavior of a bridge structure under seismic loading depends on many uncertainties, such as the nature of the seismic waves and the material and geometric properties. However, not all uncertainties have a significant impact on the dynamic behavior of a bridge structure. Since probabilistic seismic performance evaluation considering even low-impact uncertainties is computationally expensive, the uncertainties should be identified by considering their impact on the dynamic behavior of the bridge. Therefore, in this study, a global sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the main parameters affecting the dynamic behavior of bridges with I-curved girders. Method: Considering the uncertainty of the earthquake and the material and geometric uncertainty of the curved bridge, a finite element analysis was performed, and a surrogate model was developed based on the analysis results. The surrogate model was evaluated using performance metrics such as coefficient of determination, and finally, a global sensitivity analysis based on the surrogate model was performed. Result: The uncertainty factors that have the greatest influence on the stress response of the I-curved girder under seismic loading are the peak ground acceleration (PGA), the height of the bridge (h), and the yield stress of the steel (fy). The main effect sensitivity indices of PGA, h, and fy were found to be 0.7096, 0.0839, and 0.0352, respectively, and the total sensitivity indices were found to be 0.9459, 0.1297, and 0.0678, respectively. Conclusion: The stress response of the I-shaped curved girder is dominated by the uncertainty of the input motions and is strongly influenced by the interaction effect between each uncertainty factor. Therefore, additional sensitivity analysis of the uncertainty of the input motions, such as the number of input motions and the intensity measure(IM), and a global sensitivity analysis considering the structural uncertainty, such as the number and curvature of the curved girders, are required.

LRFD Design and Reliability Level Estimation of a Steel Closed-Box Girder Bridge (폐단면 강박스거더교의 LRFD 설계와 신뢰성수준 평가)

  • Huh, Jung-Won;Yun, Dong-Geon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.217-225
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    • 2010
  • Most of the steel bridges in Korea are being currently designed by the allowable stress design method that uses the conventional deterministic factors of safety. However the limit state design based on the concept of probability, statistics and reliability engineering is becoming very popular as a global standard deign method, leading the rational and economic bridge design. As part of the fundamental research to establish the load and resistance factor design(LRFD) of steel bridges considering domestic environmental conditions and regional characteristics, an experimental design is conducted by applying AASHTO-LRFD specification especially to a steel closed-box girder, which occupies relatively a large portion of steel bridges in Korea. Throughout the experimental design according to various sectional changes, some of the issues to be considered in the LRFD design of a composite steel closed-box girder bridge are examined. In this process, an Excel-based design verification program is developed for easy computation and prevention of errors. Quantitative reliability levels of the bridge sections designed by LRFD are also estimated using a reliability analysis method, and compared with the target reliability indexes applied in the LRFD design to verify the validity of the procedure and methodology used in this study.

Reliability Analysis and Evaluation of Partial Safety Factors for Sliding of Caisson Breakwaters in Korea (국내 케이슨 방파제의 활동에 대한 신뢰성 해석 및 부분안전계수 산정)

  • Kim, Seung-Woo;Suh, Kyung-Duck
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.278-289
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    • 2009
  • In the present study, we evaluated the target reliability indices and partial safety factors for caisson sliding of a vertical breakwater. The average of the reliability indices of existing breakwaters was proposed as the target reliability index for the breakwater of normal safety level. The target reliability indices of high and low safety levels were also proposed based on the analysis of breakwaters in Korea and Japan. The partial safety factors were then proposed for each safety level by averaging the values calculated for 12 breakwater crosssections in Korea. The appropriateness of the proposed partial safety factors was partly verified by showing that the reliability index calculated by using the present partial safety factors is located between those of mild and steep bottom slopes of JPHA(2007). The proposed partial safety factors were inversely used to calculate the caisson width and reliability index of existing breakwaters. While the reliability indices of existing breakwaters designed by the deterministic method show a large variation, those designed by the partial safety factor method show a small variation. This indicates that the partial safety factor method allows a consistent design for given target probability of failure.

A Nuclide Transport Model in the Fractured Rock Medium Using a Continuous Time Markov Process (연속시간 마코프 프로세스를 이용한 균열암반매질에서의 핵종이동 모델)

  • Lee, Y.M.;Kang, C.H.;Hahn, P.S.;Park, H.H.;Lee, K.J.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.529-538
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    • 1993
  • A stochastic way using continuous time Markov process is presented to model the one-dimensional nuclide transport in fractured rock matrix as an extended study for previous work [1]. A nuclide migration model by the continuous time Markov process for single planar fractured rock matrix, which is considered as a transient system where a process by which the nuclide is diffused into the rock matrix from the fracture may be no more time homogeneous, is compared with a conventional deterministic analytical solution. The primary desired quantities from a stochastic model are the expected values and variance of the state variables as a function of time. The time-dependent probability distributions of nuclides are presented for each discretized compartment of the medium given intensities of transition. Since this model is discrete in medium space, parameters which affect nuclide transport could be easily incorporated for such heterogeneous media as the fractured rock matrix and the layered porous media. Even though the model developed in this study was shown to be sensitive to the number of discretized compartment showing numerical dispersion as the number of compartments are decreased, with small compensating of dispersion coefficient, the model agrees well to analytical solution.

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Assessment of the Habitability for a Cabinet Fire in the Main Control Room of Nuclear Power Plant using Sensitivity Analysis (민감도 분석을 이용한 원전 주제어실의 케비닛 화재에 대한 거주성 평가)

  • Han, Ho-Sik;Lee, Jae-Ou;Hwang, Cheol-Hong;Kim, Joosung;Lee, Sangkyu
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.52-60
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    • 2017
  • Numerical simulations were performed to evaluate the habitability of an operator for a cabinet fire in the main control room of a nuclear power plant presented in NUREG-1934. To this end, a Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), as a representative fire model, was used. As the criteria for determining the habitability of operator, toxic products, such as CO, were also considered, as well as radiative heat flux, upper layer temperature, smoke layer height, and optical density of smoke. As a result, the probabilities of exceeding the criteria for habitability were evaluated through the sensitivity analysis of the major input parameters and the uncertainty analysis of fire model for various fire scenarios, based on V&V (Verification and Validation). Sensitivity analyses of the maximum heat release rate, CO and soot yields, showed that the habitable time and the limit criterion, which determined the habitability, could be changed. The present methodology will be a realistic alternative to enhancing the reliability for a habitability evaluation in the main control room using uncertain information of cabinet fires.

A Follow-up Study of DMSA Renal Scan in Children with . Acute Pyelonephritis and Vesicoureteral Reflux (급성신우신염과 방광요관역류 환아에서 DMSA신주사의 추적관찰)

  • Oh, Chang-Hee;Choi, Won-Kyoo;Kim, Ji-Hong;Lee, Jae-Seung;Kim, Pyung-Kil
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.145-151
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : DMSA renal scan is known as a valuable method for evaluating acute pyelonephritis and renal scar in patients with febrile urinary tract infection or vesicoureteral reflux. We made this study, to determine the most effective use of DMSA renal scan. Methods : 155 children were admitted to the Pediatric Department of Yonsei University, Severance hospital with the symptom of urinary tract infection from January, 1992 to June, 1995. DMSA scan, renal ultrasound and VCUG were performed. One consisted of 29 patients with the diagnosis of acute pyelonephritis without vesicoureteral reflux and the otherconsistedofllpatientswithvesicoureteralreflux. Results : The follow-up DMSA scans at mean $0.99{\pm}0.46$ months after the initial DMSA scans were performed in the 29 children with acute pyetonephritis. 21($72.4\%$) of 29 children showed normal DMSA scans. 8 children with abnormal DMSA scans had follow-up DMSA scans at 2.5 months after the initial scans and 6 of 8 children showed normal DMSA scans. Only 12($41.4\%$) of 29 children showed abnormal renal ultrasound. The data about DMSA scans in 32 children with vesicoureteral reflux showed that there were abnormal DMSA scans in Grade $I;25.0\%$, Grade $II;44.5\%$, Grade $III;64.3\%$, Grade $IV;92.9\%$ and Grade $V;100.0\%$. There was a significant difference in that 36 renal unit ($68.0\%$) on DMSA renal scan and 26 renal units ($49.1\%$) on renal ultrasound showed abnormal finding(P<0.05). Conclusion : DMSA renal scan is more useful than renal ultrasound for the diagnosis of acute pyelonephritis. It is considered that if the initial DMSA scan is abnormal, a follow-up DMSA scan must be performed after 10weeks (8-12weeks) and the change in DMSA scan evaluated.

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