• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.10 no.7
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• pp.111-115
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• 2009

In Korea, the probabilistically developed seismic hazard maps are used with deterministically derived seismic site coefficients in developing the design response spectrum of a specific site. Even though the seismic hazard maps and seismic site coefficients are incompatible, the current design code ignores such incompatibility. If the seismic hazard map and seismic coefficients are both developed in identical probabilistic framework, such problems can be solved. Unfortunately, the available method cannot be use to derive "true" probabilistic site coefficients. This study uses the ground motion time histories, which were developed as the result of a new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the companion paper, as input motions in performing one-dimensional equivalent linear site response analyses, from which the uniform hazard response spectra are generated. Another important characteristic of the hazard response spectra are that the uncertainties and randomness of the ground properties are accounted for. The uniform hazard spectra are then used to derive probabilistic site coefficients. Comparison of probabilistic and deterministically site coefficients demonstrate that there is a distinct discrepancy between two coefficients.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.62-72
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• 2019

Due to the difficulties in forecasting the intensity and the source location of tsunami the countermeasures prepared based on the deterministic approach fail to work properly. Thus, there is an increasing demand of the tsunami hazard analyses that consider the uncertainties of tsunami behavior in probabilistic approach. In this paper a fundamental study is conducted to perform the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) for the tsunamis that caused the disaster to the east coast of Korea. A logic tree approach is employed to consider the uncertainties of the initial free surface displacement and the tsunami height distribution along the coast. The branches of the logic tree are constructed by reflecting characteristics of tsunamis that have attacked the east coast of Korea. The computational time is nonlinearly increasing if the number of branches increases in the process of extracting the fractile curves. Thus, an improved method valid even for the case of a huge number of branches is proposed to save the computational time. The performance of the discrete weight distribution method proposed first in this study is compared with those of the conventional sorting method and the Monte Carlo method. The present method is comparable to the conventional methods in its accuracy, and is efficient in the sense of computational time when compared with the conventional sorting method. The Monte Carlo method, however, is more efficient than the other two methods if the number of branches and the number of fault segments increase significantly.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.25 no.10
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• pp.87-97
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• 2009

The seismic site coefficients are often used with the seismic hazard maps to develop the design response spectrum at the surface. The site coefficients are most commonly developed deterministically, while the seismic hazarde maps are derived probabilistically. There is, hence, an inherent incompatibility between the two approaches. However, they are used together in the seismic design codes without a clear rational basis. To resolve the fundamental imcompatibility between the site coefficients and hazard maps, this study uses a novel probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) technique that simulates the results of a standard PSHA at a rock outcrop, but integrates the site response analysis function to capture the site amplification effects within the PSHA platform. Another important advantage of the method is its ability to model the uncertainty, variability, and randomness of the soil properties. The new PSHA was used to develop fully probabilistic site coefficients for site classes of the seismic design code and another sets of site classes proposed in Korea. Comparisons highlight the pronounced discrepancy between the site coefficients of the seismic design code and the proposed coefficients, while another set of site coefficients show differences only at selected site classes.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.272-272
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• 2022

지진해일에 대한 분석은 주로 물리적인 계산에 의하여 이루어지고 있으나, 다수의 매개변수가 복잡하게 얽혀있어 계산이 오래 걸리고 해당 지진해일에 대한 분석은 지진해일이 발생한 후에 단층을 조사하여 매개변수를 산정하므로 준실시간에 해당하는 예측이 어렵다. 또한, 지진해일을 예측하는 모형을 구축하기 위해서는 충분한 지진해일에 대한 자료가 필수적이나, 국내의 지진해일은 지난 100년간 4건의 지진해일이 발생하여 자료 역시 불충분하다. 그러나, 일반적으로 지진해일은 주기적이지 않고 빈도가 많지 않으나, 지진해일로 인한 피해는 주요한 사회 기반 시설 및 막대한 인명피해를 야기하므로 지진해일 피해를 저감하기 위한 방안이 필요하다. 확률론적 지진해일 재해도 평가(Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment; PTHA)시에 주로 지역적인 범위에서 수행되어 자료의 특성을 고려하여 수행해야하나, 현재 지진해일고에 대한 분포를 대수정규분포로 하여 지역적인 특성이 고려되지 않고 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 국내의 지역적 특성을 고려하기 위하여 단층매개변수와 지진해일고와의 Vine Copula 기법을 활용하여 관계성을 파악하고 국내에서 발생가능한 지진해일에 대한 위험도 평가를 수행하였다. 본 연구에서 선정된 지진해일고 클러스터링 결과를 활용하여 향후 지진해일에 대한 방재대책 시에 기초자료로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 예상된다.

• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.19 no.1 s.62
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• pp.26-32
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• 2005

Recent earthquakes, measuring over a magnitude of 5.0, on the eastern coast of Korea, have aroused interest in earthquake analyses and the seismic design of caisson-type breakwaters. Most earthquake analysis methods, such as equivalent static analysis, response spectrum analysis, nonlinear analysis, and capacity analysis, are deterministic and have been used for seismic design and performance evaluation of coastal structures. However, deterministic methods are difficult for reflecting on one of the most important characteristics of earthquakes, i.e. the uncertainty of earthquakes. This paper presents results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment(PSHA) of an actual caisson-type breakwater, considering uncertainties of earthquake occurrences and soil properties. First, the seismic vulnerability of a structure and the seismic hazard of the site are evaluated, using earthquake sets and a seismic hazard map; then, the seismic risk of the structure is assessed.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.162-172
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• 2016

Since the Northridge earthquake in 1994 and the Kobe earthquake in 1995 occurred, the concept of performance based design has been introduced for designing various kinds of important structures and buildings. Uniform hazard spectra (UHS), with annual exceedance probabilities, corresponding to the performance level of each structure, are required for performance-based design. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was performed using spectral ground motion prediction equations, which were developed from both Korean Peninsula and Central and Eastern US region, and several seismotectonic models suggested by 10 expert panel members in seismology and tectonics. The uniform hazard spectra for 5 highly populated cities in Korea, with recurrence period of 500, 1,000, and 2,500 years using the seismic hazard at the frequencies of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, 10.0 Hz and Peak ground acceleration (PGA) were analyzed using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The sensitivity analysis suggests that spectral ground motion prediction equations impact much more on seismic hazard than what seismotectonic models do. The uniform hazard spectra commonly showed a maximum hazard at the frequency of 10 Hz and also showed the similar shape characteristics to the previous study and related technical guides to nuclear facilities.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.31-38
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• 2018

Earthquake disasters that exceed the design criteria can pose significant threats to nuclear facilities. Seismic probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) is a probabilistic way to quantify such risks. Accordingly, seismic PSA has been applied to domestic and overseas nuclear power plants, and the safety of nuclear power plants was evaluated and prepared against earthquake hazards. However, there were few examples where seismic PSA was applied in case of a research reactor with a relatively small size compared to nuclear power plants. Therefore, in this study, seismic PSA technique was applied to actually completed research reactor to analyze its safety. Also, based on these results, the optimization study on the seismic capacity of the system constituting the research reactor was carried out. As a result, the possibility of damage to the core caused by the earthquake hazard was quantified in the research reactor and its safety was confirmed. The optimization study showed that the optimal seismic capacity distribution was obtained to ensure maximum safety at a low cost compared with the current design. These results, in the future, can expect to be used as a quantitative indicator to effectively improve the safety of the research reactor with respect to earthquakes.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.35-42
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• 2012

We propose a probabilistic method to evaluate the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the soil of nuclear power plant(NPP) sites corresponding to that of a bedrock site. To do this, amplification factors on the surface of soil sites were estimated through site response analysis while considering the uncertainty in the earthquake ground motion and soil deposit characteristics. The amplification factors were calculated by regression analysis with spectral acceleration because these two factors are mostly correlated. The proposed method was applied to the evaluation of UHS for the KNGR (Korean Next Generation Reactor) and the APR1400 (Advanced Power Reactor 1400) nuclear power plant sites of B1, B4, C1 and C3. The most dominant frequency range with respect to the annual frequency of earthquakes was evaluated from the UHS analysis. It can be expected that the proposed method will improve the results of integrated risk assessments of NPPs rationally. We expect also that the proposed method will be applied to the evaluation of the UHS and of many other kinds of soil sites.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.52-61
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• 2016

The purpose of the study was to create a probabilistic seismic hazard map using the input data that reflected the seismo-tectonic characteristics of the Korean Peninsula by applying USGS program (Harmsen (2008). The program was partly modified for the purpose of this study. The uncertainty of input parameters given by specialists was reflected in calculating the seismic hazard values by logic tree method. The general pattern of PGA was quite sensitive and similar to the shape of areal source. The probabilistic seismic hazard map showed the contour distribution of peak acceleration (%g) with 10% probability of exceedance in 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years. The result showed that the peak ground acceleration (PGA) values of the northern peninsula were almost half values of the southern peninsula except Hwanghae province. The general trend of the hazard map extended in the direction of NW-SE from Whanghae province to south-eastern regions of the peninsula. The values in northern part of Kangwon province were relatively lower than other areas in the southern peninsula. The maps produced through this study are considered valuable in regulating the seismic safety of the major facilities in the Korean Peninsula.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 2003.09a
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• pp.36-45
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• 2003

Sensitivity analyses for several seismic source models were studied. For the area sources, the hazard is steeply decreasing with the source-to-site distance. Hazard is decreasing when the area of the source is increasing with fixed annual rate. For the fault sources, the fault length, distance from a site and dip angle of near fault show very sensitive effect to seismic hazard. But the various magnitude-rupture length relationships show effect to seismic hazard slightly. For the fault source with small magnitude, the exponential model is preferred rather than the characteristic model to the magnitude-recurrence law.