• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률론적 위험도평가

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Application of the Fuzzy Set Theory to Analysis of Accident Progression Event Trees with Phenomenological Uncertainty Issues (현상학적 불확실성 인자를 가진 사고진행사건수목의 분석을 위한 퍼지 집합이론의 응용)

  • Ahn, Kwang-Il;Chun, Moon-Hyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.285-298
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    • 1991
  • An example application of the fuzzy set theory is first made to a simple portion of a given accident progression event tree with typical qualitative fuzzy input data, and thereby computational algorithms suitable for application of the fuzzy set theory to the accident progression event tree analysis are identified and illustrated with example applications. Then the procedure used in the simple example is extended to extremely complex accident progression event trees with a number of phenomenological uncertainty issues, i.e., a typical plant damage state‘SEC’of the Zion Nuclear Power Plant risk assessment. The results show that the fuzzy averages of the fuzzy outcomes are very close to the mean values obtained by current methods. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a formal procedure for application of the fuzzy set theory to accident progression event trees with imprecise and qualitative branch probabilities and/or with a number of phenomenological uncertainty issues.

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Incidence and Procedure-Related Risk Factors of Delirium in Patients Admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (중환자실 입원 환자의 섬망 발생과 처치 관련 위험인자)

  • Ahn, Jee Seon;Oh, Jooyoung;Park, Jaesub;Kim, Jae-Jin;Park, Jin Young
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2019
  • Objectives : Although delirium is a common complication among patients hospitalized in intensive care units(ICUs), little is known about the roles that diagnostic and therapeutic procedures play in its development. This study investigates the procedure-related risk factors of delirium in ICU patients. Methods : All the consecutive patients admitted to the ICU between June 2016 and May 2017 were routinely evaluated for delirium by psychiatrists. In total, 1156 patients met the inclusion criteria and were retrospectively analyzed. A multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to investigate independent risk factors of delirium development while adjusting for other characteristics. Results : The age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score, proportion of patients who had undergone an operation, and proportion of patients who were foley catheterized, mechanically ventilated, and physically restrained were higher in the delirium group. The multiple logistic regression analysis confirmed that the use of restraint was an independent risk factor of delirium (odds ratio : 10.006 ; 95% confidence interval : 6.120-16.360 ; p<0.001). The patient factors independently associated with delirium were an advanced age and a higher APACHE II score. The incidence of delirium was 15.3%. Conclusions : There is a high prevalence of delirium influenced by potentially harmful procedures in patients in ICU settings. The use of physical restraint had the strongest association with the development of delirium. These findings advocate the need to target procedure-related risk factors such as the use of restraints as preventive intervention measures for ICU delirium.

CMV antigenemia following pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation : risk factors and outcomes (소아 조혈모세포 이식 후 거대세포 바이러스 항원혈증 발생 : 위험인자와 임상 경과)

  • Cho, Eun-Young;Park, Young-Shil;Lee, Dae-Hyung;Park, Ji Kyoung;Choi, Sangrhim;Kim, Sun Young;Jang, Pil-Sang;Lee, Dong-Gun;Chung, Nak-Gyun;Kim, Jong-Hyun;Jeong, Dae-Chul;Cho, Bin;Hur, Jae Gyun;Kang, Jin Han;Kim, Hack Ki
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.173-180
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    • 2006
  • Purpose : Cytomegalovirus(CMV) infection still remains as a major cause of morbidity and mortality after stem cell transplantation. In this study, we analyzed the results of antigenemia-guided preemptive therapy among children with allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation to determine the incidence and risk factors associated with CMV antigenemia, and evaluated the efficacy of the CMV antigenemia based preemptive therapy. Methods : We enrolled 213 pediatric patients following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation(HSCT), at the Catholic HSCT center between October 1998 and December 2003. Pre-emptive ganciclovir was started when more than 5 CMV Ag-positive cells were detected in matched sibling HSCT, and when any Ag-positive cells were seen in unrelated allogenic HSCT. Results : CMV antigenemia was observed in 88(41.3 percent) of 213 patients on median day 28(day 11-99). In univariated analysis, use of unrelated donors(other than siblings), age of recipient(more than 5 years at transplant) at transplantation, the presence of recipient CMV-IgG before transplantation, TBI-based conditioning regimen and the presence of acute GvHD(grade ${\geq}II$) were the risk factors for positive CMV antigenemia. In multivariate analysis, unrelated bone marrow transplantation, positive recipient CMV serology and acute GvHD(grade ${\geq}II$) were the independent risk factors for positive CMV antigenemia. Conclusion : Risk factors of CMV infection in children were CMV serostatus of the recipient, the source of stem cells, and acute graft-versus-host disease. The pre-emptive therapy based on CMV antigenemia was effective in the prevention of CMV disease.

Severity of Comorbidities among Suicidal Attempters Classified by the Forms of Psychiatric Follow-up (자살시도자의 정신건강의학과 치료 연계 형태에 따른 동반질병 심각도의 차이)

  • Lee, Hyeok;Oh, Seung-Taek;Kim, Min-Kyeong;Lee, Seon-Koo;Seok, Jeong-Ho;Choi, Won-Jung;Lee, Byung Ook
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.74-82
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    • 2016
  • Objectives : Suicide attempters have impaired decision making and are at high risk of reattempt. Therefore it is important to refer them to psychiatric treatment. Especially, People with medical comorbidity are at higher risk of suicidal attempt and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the characteristics of suicidal attempters and to analyze the influence of the medical comorbidity on decision to receive psychiatric treatment after visit to an emergency department. Methods : One hundred and thirty two patients, who visited the emergency room of a general hospital in Gyeonggi-do between January, 2012 and December, 2012 were enrolled as the subjects of this study. After reviewing each subject's medical records retrospectively, demographic and clinical factors were analyzed. Results : Regardless of the engagement type, either via admission or outpatient clinic, the determinant factors of psychiatric treatment engagement were psychiatric diagnosis, employment status, previous psychiatric treatment history, and previous attempt history. Comparison of severity of medical comorbidity(Charlson Comorbidity Index) showed that suicide attempters who received psychiatric treatment via admission or refused the treatment tended to have higher level of medical comorbidity than who received psychiatric treatment via outpatient department. Conclusions : Our findings showed that medical comorbidity of suicide attempters affected the decision to accept psychiatric treatment. All psychiatrists should evaluate the presence and the severity of medical comorbidity of the suicide attempters and consider implementing more intervention for the medically ill attempters who are willing to discharge against advice.