• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률강우강도식

Search Result 33, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Computation of Probable Rainfall Intensity and Flood Discharge for Culvert Design (암거설계를 위한 확률강우강도와 홍수유출량 산정)

  • Yoo, Dong Hoon;Rho, Jung Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2004.05b
    • /
    • pp.195-199
    • /
    • 2004
  • 수공구조물의 설계시 확률강우강도와 홍수유출량의 정확한 산정은 경제성 및 안전성과 관련되어 필수인 과정이다. 현재 확률강우강도의 산정은 한국건설기술연구원에서 제시한 확률강우량도를 사용하고 있으나, 설계자의 주관에 따른 오차 발생의 소지가 있고 수치모의시 수작업에 따른 불리함과 지속기간에 따른 강우강도의 일관성 결여 등 공학적으로 불리하다. 본고에서는 시간적(재현기간별) 공간적으로 형식의 통일과 표준화를 기하고 공학적 사용의 편리를 위하여 단순한 형태의 일반형 확률강우강도식을 개발하여 암거설계의 편리를 도모다. 또한 기존 암거설계법을 재검토하여 미흡한 부분을 보완하였다.

  • PDF

Analysis of Rainfall Characteristics Considering the Rainfall Prediction at Incheon City (강우 예측을 통한 인천지역 강우 특성 분석)

  • Park, Ji-Eun;Han, Man-Shin;Choi, Gye-Woon;Hong, Sung-Min;Choi, Hyung-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2011.05a
    • /
    • pp.352-352
    • /
    • 2011
  • 최근 이상기후 및 집중호우 등의 영향으로 국지적으로 큰 강우가 발생하여 재산피해 및 인명피해를 발생시키고 있으며, 과거 강우발생 빈도에 비하여 큰 강우가 발생되고 있다. 이러한 증가되는 추세에 대하여 확률강우량 산정시 반영하고 있는 추세이며(한만신, 2005), 이렇게 반영된 결과는 확률강우량의 증가와 함께 설계시 반영되어 안전하게 수공구조물을 시공하게 된다. 하지만, 이러한 강우의 경향을 단순하게 증가추세로만 판단하여 미래의 강우를 증가라는 개념으로 검증 절차없이 도입하기에는 과대 추정될 우려가 있으며, 과대 추정된 확률강우량은 결국 시공비의 증가를 유도하여 경제적으로 불이익이 발생한다. 따라서, 과거의 강우자료를 통하여 분석된 최근의 강우 예측결과가 어느정도의 타당성을 갖고 설계된 것인지 판단하여 향후 강우 예측을 통한 확률강우량 산정시 반영하여야 할 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구에는 강우 예측을 위하여 사용되고 있는 ARIMA 모형을 이용하여 인천지역의 1961년~2005년까지의 강우자료를 이용하여 2010년까지의 강우를 예측함으로써 실제 강우자료와의 비교를 통하여 강우 예측의 신뢰성을 검토하여 미래 강우에 대한 예측에 있어서 보다 신뢰성을 확보하고자 하였다. 또한, 강우추세에 의한 인천지역의 확률강우량을 산정함으로써 동일 유역에서의 다른 분포형이나 확률강우를 사용함으로써 발생되는 설계의 혼란을 방지하고자 한다. 본 연구를 위하여 인천지방 기상대의 관측자료를 이용하여 1961년부터 2010년까지의 분단위 강우자료를 획득하였으며, 임의시간에 의한 지속시간별 최대강우량을 산정함으로써 기존의 설계에서 사용되어 왔던 고정시간의 환산계수 대신 실제 최대강우량을 이용함으로써 강우 예측에 대한 정확도를 향상하였고, 확률강우강도식 선정시 지역 강우 특성을 고려하여 결정하여야 한다는 결론을 도출하였다.

  • PDF

Derivation of Probable Rainfall-Intensity Formula in the Cheju Districts (제주지방(濟州地方)의 확률강우강도식(確率降雨强度式) 유도(誘導))

  • Kim, Chul Soon;Rim, Byung Dae;Kim, Woon Joong;Pyo, Yong Pyoung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.13 no.2
    • /
    • pp.183-190
    • /
    • 1993
  • It is desirable to utilize the result after studying the rainfall characteristics including the latest observation data in the districts for the sake of establishment of the more accurate plans for drainage or plans for hydraulic stuctures because the rainfall phenomena are different in their characteristics by regional groups and if we make a meteorological observation for a long period of time, the rainfall characteristics also change a great deal as compared with the preceding years. Therefore, we selected only the annual maximum rainfall from the self-recording rain gauge of the main rainfall observation station (Cheju, Sogwipo, Songsanpo) in the Cheju districts in the last twenty years, extracted the rainfall by actual measurement by the rainfall duration, and induced the optimal probable rainfall-intensity formulas by regional groups in the Cheju districts, taking advantage of the rainfall formulas being in wide use in general, that is, Talbot type, Sherman type, Japanese type, and new Semi-log type. As the result, the return periods at Cheju station appeared to be three years to five years and the optimal probable rainfall-intensity formula at Cheju station, Japanese type and outside the city, Talbot type; Sogwipo, Sherman type; Songsanpo, Talbot type respectively.

  • PDF

Analysis on Probable Rainfall Intensity in Kyungpook Province (경북지방(慶北地方)의 확률(確率) 강우강도(降雨强度)에 대(對)한 분석(分析))

  • Suh, Seung Duk;Park, Seung Young
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
    • /
    • v.4
    • /
    • pp.77-86
    • /
    • 1986
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate an optimum formula of rainfall intensity on basis of the characteristics for short period of rainfall duration in Kyungpook province for the design of urban sewerage and small basin drain system. Results studied are as follows; 1. The optimum method for Taegu and Pohang, Iwai's and Gumbel-Chow's method are recommended respectively. 2. The opotimum type of rainfall intensity for these area, $I=\frac{a}{\sqrt{t}+b}$ (Japanese type), is confirmed with 2.52~4.17 and 1.86~4.54 as a standard deviation for Taegu and Pohang respectively. The optimum formula of rainfall intensity are as follows. Taegu : T : 200 year - $I=\frac{824}{\sqrt{t}+1.5414}$ T : 100 year - $I=\frac{751}{\sqrt{t}+1.4902}$ T : 50 year - $I=\frac{678}{\sqrt{t}+1.4437}$ T : 30 year - $I=\frac{623}{\sqrt{t}+1.4017}$ T : 20 year - $I=\frac{580}{\sqrt{t}+1.3721}$ T : 10 year - $I=\frac{502}{\sqrt{t}+1.3145}$ T : 5 year - $I=\frac{418}{\sqrt{t}+1.2515}$ Pohang : T : 200 year - $I=\frac{468}{\sqrt{t}+1.1468}$ T : 100 year - $I=\frac{429}{\sqrt{t}+1.1605}$ T : 50 year - $I=\frac{391}{\sqrt{t}+1.1852}$ T : 30 year - $I=\frac{362}{\sqrt{t}+1.2033}$ T : 20 year - $I=\frac{339}{\sqrt{t}+1.2229}$ T : 10 year - $I=\frac{299}{\sqrt{t}+1.2578}$ T : 5 year - $I=\frac{257}{\sqrt{t}+1.3026}$ 3. Significant I.D.F. curves derived should be applied to estimate a suitable rainfall intensity and rainfall duration.

  • PDF

Problem and Improvement in Design of Drainage Pipe for Bridges (교량용 배수관경 국내기준의 문제점 및 개선안)

  • Hong, Kee-Jeung;Oh, Chang-Kook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
    • /
    • v.11 no.3
    • /
    • pp.37-42
    • /
    • 2011
  • Recently, the cause of flood damage has been the local torrential rainfalls rather than a total amount of yearly rainfalls. The domestic design code of drainage pump is being improved by considering the effect of local torrential rainfalls, while there is no consideration on the local torrential rainfalls in the domestic design code of bridge-deck drainage. Compared with the code of Federal Highway Administration in USA, no rational bases are specified in the domestic design code of bridge-deck drainage. This paper proposes the reasonable design guideline for bridge-deck drainage considering the effect of local torrential rainfalls.

Determination of Probable Rainfall Intensity Formulas for Designing Storm Sewer Systems at Incheon District (우수거 설계를 위한 인천지방에서의 확률강우강도식의 산정)

  • Ahn, Tae-Jin;Kim, Kyung-Sub
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
    • /
    • v.12 no.3
    • /
    • pp.99-106
    • /
    • 1998
  • This paper presents a procedure for determining the design rainfall depth and the design rainfall intensity at Incheon city area in Korea. In this study the eight probability distributions are considered to estimate the probable rainfall depths for 11 different durations. The Kolmogorov - Smirnov test and the Chi-square test are adopted to test each distribution. The probable rainfall intensity formulas are then determined by i) the least squares (LS) method, ii) the least median squares (LMS) method, iii) the reweighted least squares method based on the LMS (RLS), and iv) the constrained regression (CR) model. The Talbot, the Sherman, the Japanese, and the Unified type are considered to determine the best type for the Incheon station. The root mean squared (RMS) errors are computed to test the formulas derived by four methods. It is found that the Unified type is the most reliable and that all methods presented herein are acceptable for determining the coefficients of rainfall intensity formulas from an engineering point of view.

  • PDF

The Regional Rainfall Intensity Formula Development Considering Climate Change of Gimhae City (기후변화를 고려한 김해시의 지역별 확률강우강도식 개발)

  • Woo, Sun-Bong;Park, Jong-Kil;Choi, Sun-Ho;Yoon, Jong-Sung
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
    • /
    • v.23 no.11
    • /
    • pp.1775-1790
    • /
    • 2014
  • The regional rainfall intensity formula for Gimhae in Gyeongsangnam-do province is developed in this study. The nine points of rainfall observations were selected. In order to demonstrate the accuracy and the versatility of the proposed rainfall intensity formula, three regions under the jurisdiction of the Meteorological Agency near Gimhae, namely Busan, Changwon, Miryang observatories were selected. The present formula can be effectively employed for various design of hydraulic structures in Gimhae area since it is divided into several refined regions.

Derivation of Probable Rainfall Intensity Formula at Masan District (마산지방 확률강우강도식의 유도)

  • Kim, Ji-Hong;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
    • /
    • v.2 no.1
    • /
    • pp.49-58
    • /
    • 2000
  • The frequency analysis of annual maximum rainfall data and the derivation of probable rainfall intensity formula at Masan station are performed in this study. Based on the eight different rainfall duration data from 10 minutes to 24 hours, eight types of probability distribution (Gamma, Lognormal, Log-Pearson type III, GEV, Gumbel, Log-Gumbel, Weibull, and Wakeby distributions), three types of parameter estimation scheme (moment, maximum likelihood and probability weighted methods) and three types of goodness-of-fit test (${\chi}^2$, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramer von Mises tests) were considered to find an appropriate probability distribution at Masan station. The Lognormal-2 distribution was selected and the probable rainfall intensity formula was derived by regression analysis. The derived formula can be used for estimating rainfall quantiles of the Masan vicinity areas with convenience and reliability in practice.

  • PDF