• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.183-200
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• 2018

This study empirically tests the presence of rational bubbles in the ship prices using time series data from October 1996 to April 2017. To detect the existence of ship prices' rational bubbles, we use integration and cointegration tests, which were proposed by Campbell and Shiller(1987) and Diba and Grossman(1988), for circumventing misspecification of ship price model and applying the bubble test to nonstationary time series. The result of integration test supports existence of tanker price's rational bubble. The co-integration test also shows that drybulk ship and containership prices have been overvalued relative to the market fundamental, drybulk and container freight rates, due to non-stationary rational bubbles. These results provide Korean shipping industry and authorities implications that anticyclical ship investment and long-term and steady fleet capacity expansion policy are needed.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.375-378
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• 2001

현재까지 행해진 주식시장 거품에 관한 연구들은 주가를 형성하는 근본요인으로서 현금배당만을 고려하고 있다. 그러나 현금배당은 경영자에 의해 조정가능하므로 진정한 기업가치를 나타내는 신호로 보기 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기업가치를 더 정확히 반영하기 위하여 기업의 자본상에 나타나는 자금변동을 고려한 '순현금배당'을 도입한다. 상태-공간 모형과 칼만필터링 추정법을 이용하여 KOSPI 시장 자료에 대해 실증분석한 결과, 현금배당만 고려할 때와 '순현금배당'을 고려했을 때 추정된 거품이 매우 다른 양상을 보였다. 특히 한국의 금융위기시점을 고려하여 볼 때 '순현금배당'을 이용한 것이 실제 현상과 더 잘 부합하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 주식시장의 거품을 연구하는데 있어 현금배당과 자금변동을 함께 고려하는 것이 더 정확한 추정결과를 얻을 수 있음을 시사한다.

• Archives of design research
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• v.13
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• pp.45-53
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• 1996

After the callapse of the 80's bubble economy. consumers tend to consider the fundamental values of a product such as price, usage, and quality more significantly than ever before. Due to this change in attitude. the most important factor in a consumer's decision for choosing a product becomes the quality of a product that safisfies consumer's practical values whith convincing features and logical differentiations devoted to fundamental values. Under the circumstances. Factor Oriented Process and Multi-Sequential Process are proposede not just as merely defining concept through study of consumers' needs. but as methods of gaining competitive edge and eatablishing corporate identity in market, competition by bringing out consumers' various wants and needs to lead them to a specific product. Factor Oriented Process emphasizes the analysis of factors within the process itself, especially the synthesis of factors which would bring about new solutions as its special feature and acts as a logical element for further design development. Thus, the synthesis process consists of re-organizing analyzed factors, andduring this process, analyzing correlation between the restrictions of factors would lead to discovery of 'dominant factors'. Afterward, design basis may be formed with design concepts proposed by several concept codes made up of one dominant factor and other associate factors. Multi-Sequential Process is an extensive approach to discover differentiated design proposals through careful examination of dominant factors within the product, and furthermor, to discount 'anterior factor' (directional factors that decide design directions based on multi-value criteria) for self-determined decision of design directions.