• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.907-914
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• 2015

Reduction in the number of students due to the low birth rate has notice very many changes in the national education policies. The purpose of this study is to propose a method for estimation of the number of students (the population) by age or grade promotion rate of progression rate to estimate the exact number of students (the population) by 2032. It was suggested the nth moving average proportional method and the weighted proportional moving average method as the method of population projections. It presents the means and standard deviations of the measurement errors of the suggested methods by Monte Carlo simulation. Measured in this study are predicted result was a phenomenon is estimated lower than the actual value.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.311-320
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• 2013

The purpose of this paper is to suggest the methods of forecasting the numbers of students. The generalized weighted proportion estimation models are suggested and used for forecasting the numbers of student until 2029. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation show that the suggested method is powerful for the forecasting. In conclusion, the numbers of the third grade high-school students will be less than the numbers of college admission quota from 2019.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.1167-1173
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• 2011

The goal of this paper is to suggest an algorithm to get forecasting for the numbers of students in the city or county in local government by using the double exponential smoothing method. By 2044 year, the third year of high school students in the Chilgok, Gumi, Gyeongsan, Andong, Pohang and Gimchen are reduced about 40-70%, the those of in the remaining city or county are reduced about 70-95%. In conclusion, the forecasting numbers of students of the 23 counties in Kyungbuk Province are on the decrease to 40%-100% until 2044 year in comparison with the numbers of students on 2010 years.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.503-511
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• 2010

The goal of this paper is to suggest an algorithm to get the number of student on the elementary, meddle and high-school for the forecasting of the numbers of student by the moving average method using a proportional expression. Comparing with the results of Korean education statistical system 2005, 2006, and 2007, the results of this paper are better than those of the Korean education statistical system.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.71-77
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• 2012

This paper introduces the projection methods by nonlinear regression model. To predict the student numbers, a log model and an involution model as the kind of a trend-extrapolation method are used. Empirical evidence shows that a projection by log model is better than by involution model with the confidence interval estimations for the coefficients of determination.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.503-506
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• 2022

The absolute decreasing in the school-age population due to the low fertility rate that has lasted for more than 20 years is a result of the lack of filling in universities. The lack of filling in general universities is more serious in universities of local area than universities in the metropolitan area, and in two-year junior colleges rather than general universities. The purpose of this study is to how the highschool grading system and university rankings have an effect on the lack of filling enterance quota for new students.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.21 no.8
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• pp.285-293
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• 2021

This study aims to identify the relationship between outcome expectancy and illegal use of music sources, and examined the parallel double mediating model of reward sensitivity and social dilution of responsibility on that relationship. To achieve the purpose this study, data were collected from 302 male and female high school students living in Seoul metropolitan area, and a double mediating effect was analysed with PROCESS Macro 3.5 Model 4. Results indicated that outcome expectancy was positively correlated with reward sensitivity, social dilution of responsibility, and illegal use of music sources of high school students, whereas reward sensitivity and social dilution of responsibility were positively correlated with illegal use of music sources. This study found that reward sensitivity and social dilution of responsibility were mediating outcome expectancy and illegal use of music sources in parallel. These findings suggest that psychological mechanisms lead adolescents use illegal music sources might be important, and provide useful information for making strategies to prevent adolescents' uses of illegal music sources.

• The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.33-39
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• 2018

The number of elementary school classroom's students. It will be decreased to 21.1 OECD even and furthemore to 19.8 in 2030. Therfore fore the time being the number of elementary school classroom's students will be sustained in 20~22. But nowadays the classroom's area which is fitted the number of 30 is too big compare with the number of 20~22. This reserch is finding the profit module of elementary school's classroom of the number of 20~20. Using one student's unit and various displays of class by teaching methods, I found the conclusions as follows. 1st, the horizontal length of center line is 7,100~7,500 and the vertical length of center line is 7,000~8,000 in the classroom's area of a team of 2. 2nd, if you make adjustment those lenghts to 30cm module, horizontal length is transfered to 7.2m, 7.5m, and vertical length is transferred to 7.2m, 7.5m, 7.8m. Therefore unit classroom's module are $7.2m{\times}7.2m$, $7.5m{\times}7.5m$ in square, and $7.2m{\times}7.5m$, $7.2m{\times}7.8m$, $7.5m{\times}7.8m$ in rectangular. 3rd, the areas of modules are $7.2m{\times}7.2m(51.84m^2)$, $7.5m{\times}7.5m(56.25m^2)$, $7.2m{\times}7.5m(54m^2)$, $7.2m{\times}7.8m(56.16m^2)$, $7.5m{\times}7.8m(58.5m^2)$. Therfore th area of module is from $51.84m^2$ to $58.5m^2$ compared to nowadays' classrooms.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1175-1188
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• 2015

The Ministry of Education of Korea announced the university structural reform plans which reduces 160,000 of the university entrance quota during 10 years from January 2014. Because the reduction plans of entrance quota influence regional economy as well as students and universities, naive evidence of the Ministry of Education of Korea is disappointed. In this research, we forecast the total number of the university entrance exam candidate by 2032 including not only third grade high school students but also repeaters according to the 16 metropolises and provinces in Korea. We also forecast the regional university recruiting rate using the forecasts of the total number of the university entrance exam candidates. However, we can not make more realistic results because we can not apply the inter-regional movement of students to the forecast. In order to handle this limitation, we first estimated the rank of the whole 7,277 departments of all universities in Korea and assigned the quotas according to the estimated rank for each departments and then we calculated the local university recruiting rate. The estimated the university recruiting rates of 16 metropolises and provinces can provide more noticeable results of characteristics and problems than that of nationwide.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.65 no.4
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• pp.269-276
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• 2008

Background: Although the prevalence of tuberculosis infections (PTBI) is one of the basic epidemiologic indices, no survey has been carried out since 1995 because the nation-wide tuberculosis prevalence survey was changed to a surveillance system. Subjects without a BCG scar are examined in a tuberculin survey. However, it is very difficult to select these subjects under high vaccination coverage. It is important to evaluate the impact of BCG vaccinations on the tuberculin response and estimate the PTBI regardless of the BCG vaccination status. Methods: A nation-wide, school-based cross-sectional tuberculin survey was carried out among first graders in elementary school in 2006. A total of 5,148 children in 40 schools were selected by quota sampling. Tuberculin testing with 0.1 ml of two tuberculin units of PPD RT23 was carried out on 4,018 children. The maximum transverse diameter of induration was measured 48 to 72 hours later. The presence of a BCG scar was checked separately. Results: There were no BCG scars in 6.3% of the subjects. The mean induration size of tuberculin testing was $3.7{\pm}4.4mm$, which included 1,882 (46.8%) subjects with an induration size of 0 mm. The PTBI was 10.9% (439 subjects) using a cut-off point of ${\geq}10mm$ (conventional method). The annual risk of tuberculosis infections (ARTI) was 1.9% when the mean age of the subjects was assumed to be 6 years. There was no difference in the PTBI according to the presence or absence of a BCG scar [11.2% vs 7.6% (OR: 1.54, 95% CI: 0.98~2.43)]. Using a mirror image technique with 16 mm as the cut-off point, the PTBI and ARTI had decreased to 2.4% and 0.4% respectively. Conclusion: PTBI and ARTI, as estimated by conventional methods, appear to be high among BCG vaccinated children. A mirror image technique is more suitable for estimating the indices in a country with an intermediate burden of tuberculosis than the conventional method.